This thesis was written in December 2019 but I had implied some PLA movement which makes more sense now after current India-China standoff in Laddakh even though de-escalation is taking place.
The write up references maps and tables, but I was not able to include rich text so I have rewritten this thesis in an abridged form but still it is quiet long, but it could had been more useful in the presence of colored maps and table – a picture worth thousand words!
Lastly, there is no secret information here. All military information was collected from the internet.
Mao Tse-tung –
“Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent.”
Surprise attack is the key to any successful military victory but Islam prohibits undeclared war. So Pakistan has to throw Shimla Accord to dust bin and declare that human rights violation of Kashmiris will be an Act of War and Pakistan reserves the right to defend Kashmiri people. With this declaration in the open, Pakistan can preemptively strike India with whatever means Pakistan capable of. PAF role is supreme. PAF has to use ‘a la Israel
Operation Focus, and destroy 50-60% IAF bases and planes on ground. If that happens, then Pakistan can dominate skies and support Pakistan Infantry and mechanized formations advancing in Kashmir and in the eastern war theater.
This war is for Kashmir and Pakistan must occupy entire JKL, Himachal Pradesh, and
Eastern Punjab. I will explain why Pakistan has to occupy Himachal Pradesh and large parts of Indian/Eastern Punjab.
Pakistan Objectives:
1. Take whole of Kashmir including Jammu, and Laddakh
2. Wrest control of Pakistan upstream rivers coming from Kashmir
3. Occupy Himachal Pradesh in the further east of Kashmir for bargaining
4. Occupy parts of Indian Punjab to take control of river heads, barrages, dams on
Satlej, Ravi, and Beas – for bargaining
5. Defend Sindh where Pakistan is weakest
Here is Pakistan Kashmir Offense to Conquer Scenario:
Pakistan attack Kashmir Valley with strength of two corps, I and X. Kashmiris will cutoff Indian supply lines and attack from behind. Pakistan should be able to take valley comparatively easily. Pakistan can neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some mysterious reasons XIV Corps – Leh gets its attention diverted.
A coordinated attack with China will ensure Pakistan to take entire Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and most of Indian Punjab. Later Pakistan and China can settle borderlines in Laddakh amicably.
Pakistan Army Strength for Battle in Kashmir:
Pakistan Army’s strength lies in its experience of urban and rugged mountainous warfare it gained in ex FATA and ops and planning to combat RAW-NDS sponsored terrorism from Afghanistan. PA will face similar urban and mountainous landscape. This army is battle hardened and is the only army in the world that is victorious in the War on Terror. The desperate terrorists, Pakistan Army faced and defeated were the most vicious and ruthless in the history of mankind. Indian Army in Kashmir with low morale, fatigued by a long urban war, and one which will be constantly watching its back is not in an envious position to confront Pak Army. Most of Indian troops will be killed and many will become POW which will present valuable bargaining options later on.
With India losing in Kashmir it will strike hard at Punjab and Sindh and it will try to take as many Pakistani areas as possible so that after ceasefire it can bargain to take Kashmir back in return for Pakistani lands. It is, therefore, paramount that Pakistan not only take entire JKL but also Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Indian Punjab holding Ravi, Satlej, Beas water heads, barrages, and dams for bargaining
. If that does not happen, then entire Kashmir operation will be futile!!
Pakistan’s only weapon is surprise and that can only be achieved by PAF.
PAF has to perform three roles:
1. Surprise India in the skies
2. Support PA Infantry and Mechanized Divisions
3. Support PN. PN is totally outnumbered by IN but we hope it can defend Karachi and Gwadar ports with help from PAF and keep Pakistan sea lanes open.
PN and PAF Roles:
Defend Karachi, and Gwadar ports from IN and IAF Ship/air-launched Brahmos Mach 3 missiles.
Below maps shows Indian Corps geographical locations (in red text) which will take part in war with Pakistan. Central and Eastern Commands are not shown as they are deployed on Indian Eastern Borders. They can be moved but India is not in a position to move all its army on Pakistan and Kashmir borders. With PLA moving troops in proximity with Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, and weaknesses in Mizoram, Meghalia, and Nagaland; troops from Eastern Command cannot be moved to Western borders. But India has enough numbers on its borders with Pakistan. Latest reports suggest, PLA has moved troops on Indo-Tibetan borders.
Pakistan to attack valley with 2 x corps strength:
Pakistan should neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some not so mysterious reasons, IA XIV Corps – Leh get its attention diverted.
Indian Army on the Western and Northern Borders:
1. Northern Command, Udhampur - Comprised of three corps, entirely focused on JKL (Jammu, Kashmir, Laddakh):
XIV Corps – Leh
XV Corps – Srinagar
XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu)
XIV Corps ↓ – Leh can’t move if engaged by China!
That leaves XV Corps – Srinagar and XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu) for offense and defense. These two crops can be helped by
IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command.
In the best case scenario Pakistan Army will be facing three IA corps - XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and
IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command, and worst case scenario; four IA corps – three from JKL and fourth IX Corps – Yol from Western Command ---- shown in light brown box.
2. Western Command, Chandimandir
40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
II Corps – Ambala
IX Corps – Yol
XI Corps – Jalandhar
Western Command is critical for India. Its sphere will include Pakistani Punjab and also Jammu in case of IX Corps, Yol, shown as light green box.
Both Northern and Western Commands are central in Indian plan to defend Kashmir and attack Pakistani Punjab. Pakistan Army has to engage and neutralize them.
3. 50th Parachute Brigade, Agra
India will use its paratroopers in all of Kashmir, but may also use it to cutoff Pakistan supply lines elsewhere. India will also need paratroopers for potential war with China!
4. South Western Command, Jaipur, Rajasthan
42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
I Corps – Mathura
X Corps – Bathinda
South Western Command can be used to attack Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, shown as light yellow.
5. Southern Command, Pune
41st Artillery Div. – Pune
XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
XXI Corps – Bhopal
Southern Command is far in the Indian territories. If they attack Sindh, they will be crossing Thar Desert and can be targeted by PAF during offensive move, shown as light yellow box.
Pakistan Offense:
1. I Corps – Mangla
2. X Corps – Rawalpindi
I Corps - Mangla and X Corps – Rawalpindi to neutralize Indian XIV Corps – Leh, XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command (WC).
If both Pakistan and China coordinate their offensive then XIV Corps – Leh, and IX Corps – Yol can be diverted by PLA from Laddakh and Tibet. [Latest reports suggest, PLA has deployed troops, Type 15 light tanks, and 155mm mobile howitzers on Indo-Tibetan borders.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/jun...ht_tanks_deployed_in_tibet_for_exercises.html, sic]
Action Scenario:
1. I Crops, Mangla – Kashmir Offense
Occupy Jammu and block IA IX Yol corps from WC.
Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.
2. X Corps, Rawalpindi – Kashmir Offense.
Objectives:
- Occupy Valley
- Move towards Himachal Pradesh.
Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.
It is essential that PA neutralizes IA IX Yol Corps to blunt a 3rd of IA WC. This will block IA reinforcement to JKL, greatly obstruct free movement of WC strike role in Pakistani Punjab – result will put entire WC in disarray.
I corps - 6th Armour Div. Gujranwala to move in Indian Punjab and to Himachal Pradesh. Entire Arm. Div won’t be moving in Indian heartland at this point.
Pakistan Defensive Actions to Defend Punjab
PA Defense Elements for North-Eastern Punjab:
1. XXX Corps – Gujranwala
2. IV Corps – Lahore
PA has to defend offensive from IA,
WC –
Chandimandir which comprises:
1. 40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
2. II Corps – Ambala
3. IX Corps – Yol
4. XI Corps – Jalandhar
Actions Scenarios:
Indian WC ↓ could be immobilized by PLA from Indo-Tibetan border [this may not happen as China has its own strategic and economic reason].
IA will mobilize Strike groups from WC. PA I and II Corps had neutralized IA IX crops from WC.
Indian army’s rest of WC corps elements and SW corps elements will launch full force attack on Lahore and Sialkot.
PA XXX Corps, Gujranwala & IV Corps, Lahore, will defend Pakistani Punjab with help from 6th Armour Div Gujranwala (this will need coordination as 6th Armour will also move in India Punjab and then to Himachal Pradesh).
They have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow in Indian Punjab and help consolidate gains in Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh!!
PA Defense Elements for Central-Eastern Punjab:
XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend offensive from IA – WC.
Indian South Western Command – Jaipur, Rajasthan:
1. 42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
2. I Corps – Mathura
3. X Corps – Bathinda
Actions Scenarios:
XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend central Punjab from attack from India SW command– Jaipur, Rajasthan. This corps will have to defend Central Punjab and Cholistan. They could be helped by XII Corps – Quetta,
pre-mobilized.
XXXI Corps would have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow!!
PA Defense Elements for Sindh:
Sindh is Pakistan’s weakest link in Eastern War Theater. Only V Corps, Karachi covers entire Sindh against India SC – Pune.
V Crops, Karachi:
1. 16 Infantry, Pannu Aqil
2. 18th Infantry, Hyderabad
3. 25th Mechanized Div. Malir
4. 31st Mechanized Div., Hyderabad
Indian Southern Command – Pune:
1. 41st Artillery Div. – Pune
2. XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
3. XXI Corps – Bhopal
Action Scenarios:
IA Southern Command is far deep in Indian territories. They, however, will be used to attack Sindh including Hyderabad and upper Sindh all along east of Indus River. IA will be crossing Thar to invade Sindh. That will be a time for PAF to engage IA formations to destroy moving infantry and mechanized columns in Rajasthan and Thar deserts. Pakistan is weak in Anti-Armour gunships so PAF has to take a very intensive role throughout eastern theaters.
PA V corps will utilize infantry divisions from Pannu Aqil and Hyderabad, and Mechanized divisions from Malir and Hyderabad. V Corps will need reinforcement from XII corps, Quetta.
End Game:
It is often sighted that PA is weak against India. I don’t think it is true. Pakistan has enough strength to hold India and even occupy many parts of India. Pakistan military planners should not be short sighted to only focus on liberating Kashmir and to defending its Eastern borders. They must plan to liberate entire Kashmir including Jammu and Laddakh, as well as occupy large parts of Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh to later bargain for Pakistan territories India shall be able to occupy in Pakistani Punjab and Sindh.
. You would have strings of buffer states.
