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Kashmir War: Is Beyond JKL

It is to debunk the myth Pakistan cannot take India in a conventional war.

There can be no conventional war between two nuclear-armed adversaries, plain and simple. Any open conflict over Kashmir by either side will not remain contained. The present stalemate is the best option for both sides pending a long term solution.
 
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Bit late to the party. But here are some of the things that can be discussed in this. Please understand that intention is to have a good discussion so any links and references would be helpful for me to understand.

Surprise attack is the key to any successful military victory but Islam prohibits undeclared war. So Pakistan has to throw Shimla Accord to dust bin and declare that human rights violation of Kashmiris will be an Act of War and Pakistan reserves the right to defend Kashmiri people.

It would be wrong to assume that after declaring this, Pakistan will still retain the first mover advantage or surprise element. India might very well attack first. In that case, India succeeds or fails is debatable but will impinge on the elements available for India invasion.

Kashmiris will cutoff Indian supply lines and attack from behind. Pakistan should be able to take valley comparatively easily. Pakistan can neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota.
Operation Gibraltar made the same assumption. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gibraltar]. However it did not work then. Things may have changed now, but I think now India has consolidated its grip in Kashmir and any plan should expect a hostile population.

PAF role is supreme. PAF has to use ‘a la Israel Operation Focus, and destroy 50-60% IAF bases and planes on ground.
In 1971, PAF did this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chengiz_Khan, . Earlier you mentioned that Pakistan will not need surprise element but this requires the surprise element.

To keep the discussions focused, just have these points for now. Looking for your response and your thoughts on how Pakistan can influence the outcome to be different.
 
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There can be no conventional war between two nuclear-armed adversaries, plain and simple. Any open conflict over Kashmir by either side will not remain contained. The present stalemate is the best option for both sides pending a long term solution.
That's your opinion, but thank you.
 
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Bit late to the party. But here are some of the things that can be discussed in this. Please understand that intention is to have a good discussion so any links and references would be helpful for me to understand.



It would be wrong to assume that after declaring this, Pakistan will still retain the first mover advantage or surprise element. India might very well attack first. In that case, India succeeds or fails is debatable but will impinge on the elements available for India invasion.


Operation Gibraltar made the same assumption. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gibraltar]. However it did not work then. Things may have changed now, but I think now India has consolidated its grip in Kashmir and any plan should expect a hostile population.


In 1971, PAF did this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chengiz_Khan, . Earlier you mentioned that Pakistan will not need surprise element but this requires the surprise element.

To keep the discussions focused, just have these points for now. Looking for your response and your thoughts on how Pakistan can influence the outcome to be different.
Regarding declaring war and attack are two different things. Quran says, tell them that you are at war with the adversary. So time is now to declare it.
Tome to start the hostilities is your choosing and you keep enemy in dark.

Operation Gibralter is just a lesson now and JCOS must have learned lessons and from 71.

You seem a bit unaware of situation in Kashmir. Kashmiris' liberation war against occupation is now in 4th decade starting in late 80's, and valley and many parts of jammu will stand up against India in the case of an invasion by Pakistan, no doubt about that.

I have not studied op Chengiz khan, and I will request you to share your analysis.
Having said that, idea was right but CRITICAL PART IS EXECUTION. If you cant execute then best plans are useless.
PAF is smaller but for that matter agile and can improvise quickly. Most of PAF frontline inventory is 4th Gen F16 and JF17 now.

One related point, in Kargil battle, PAF did not come out because of lacking BVR against IAF Mig-29 R-27. So an AF has to have technological, tactical, and skills superiority to successfully execute a mission.
 
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Regarding declaring war and attack are two different things. Quran says, tell them that you are at war with the adversary. So time is now to declare it.
Tome to start the hostilities is your choosing and you keep enemy in dark.
I am not clear on what you are saying here. You are saying, "Declare war now, But do a surprise attack later". My point is that if war is declared what stops India from attacking? If it does then there is no surprise, right? Also then Pakistan will have to focus on defense rather than offence. Then this plan cannot be executed.

You seem a bit unaware of situation in Kashmir. Kashmiris' liberation war against occupation is now in 4th decade starting in late 80's, and valley and many parts of jammu will stand up against India in the case of an invasion by Pakistan, no doubt about that.
I am afraid I have much to learn. Your assessment is that valley and Jammu will stand up against India. Any link or pointers to that? I am leaning on J&K 2019 election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election_in_Jammu_and_Kashmir) as a indicator. The polling percentage was about 50%. So I am assuming the general population is not so hostile outside of the valley. I understand that there can be questions on those numbers and elections but I have not found a better statistics.
I have not studied op Chengiz khan, and I will request you to share your analysis.
Having said that, idea was right but CRITICAL PART IS EXECUTION. If you cant execute then best plans are useless.
PAF is smaller but for that matter agile and can improvise quickly. Most of PAF front line inventory is 4th Gen F16 and JF17 now.
It was an operation similar to what you have in your theses. My very condensed thought on that is PAF aircraft range is not enough to cover India's bases in hinterland. They can reach the bases closer to Pakistan. So if there is a declared war and IAF is smart enough to disperse their assets then it is hard to achieve what you are asking PAF to do.
Missiles are another question altogether. But they would add another dimension to the engagement.
One related point, in Kargil battle, PAF did not come out because of lacking BVR against IAF Mig-29 R-27. So an AF has to have technological, tactical, and skills superiority to successfully execute a mission.
I think PAF did not come out because the official stand was that no military was involved and the territory of the operation was Indian Occupied before winter. Secondly there was a lot of noise that Indians did not cross the LOC etc. Things might have ended differently Pakistan had made the attack official.
I believe PAF had the AMRAAM missiles during Kargil, So quite surprised by your statement that technology kept them away. If that is the case, what has changed now?
 
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I am not clear on what you are saying here. You are saying, "Declare war now, But do a surprise attack later". My point is that if war is declared what stops India from attacking? If it does then there is no surprise, right? Also then Pakistan will have to focus on defense rather than offence. Then this plan cannot be executed.
Declaring war is Quranic obligation and I will stuck to it what may. Now I cant go into Islamic Jurisprudence of offensive and defensive war, not my competency but for defensive war one does not have to declare a war, it is already going. When India attacked balakot across IB and officially ceded Kashmir repealing 370/35, india has declared a war and Pakistan can respond any time. I will think Pakistan can say that implicitly in some way.

2. Kashmir struggle now in it's over 30 years , I was wrong about 4 decades, whole Kashmir under locked down and about 1 million troops there. What other proof one needs that Kashmiris have stood up.

3. I think pakistan got AIM-120 AMRAAM in
2006 after kargil?
@Dazzler @BHarwana @Windjammer
Can you plz confirm!
 
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*Replying a month old post.
71 is past.
Gap between Indian & Pakistani military capabilities was too thin as compared to today in 71. So basically, past was more favourable for Pakistan as gap with India is now much larger economically & militarily, it's still expanding.
It was 1000 miles away and India used all sorts of terror activities working hand in hand with mukti behini terror outfit. Pakistan made political mistakes and Indi could not had done a thing without help from USSR.
India wouldn't have needed USSR if US & China were not equation. In fact, India wanted to make Pakistan cease to exist.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/reveal-names-of-cia-moles-of-1971-war-cic-393131
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/india-could-have-split-west-pakistan-in-1971/

Indeed if India was successful in wiping Pakistan out from map in 1971, NATO would have got another free uncontained threat in Asia. So, chosen to maintain status quo.

In existing state, Indian navy alone is enough to create a blockade long enough to do job anyway
Pakistan had got indi again in kargil war but Nawaz chickened out.
It's India itself who had a thumb role to itself to not to cross LoC
India over 500 kia but they would never give true figures, coffins were in shortage.
Indian figures were consistent since day 1. These were Pakistani figures which came out to be totally different from mouths of Nazwaz , Musharraf and state media.
Pakistan even refuses to publish numbers of martyrs in border clashes. Indeed I won't have to struggle to get concensus that Indian sources are neutraler and Pak is known for hiding stats.
Just recently India did an air attack on feb 26, 2019. One brave Pakistani Crow was KIA. Next day PAF shot down two indi fighters including SU30.In the ensuing milieu Indi AD shotdown their own chopper.
27 Feb only reflects how easy is to make Pakistanis happy, just by "doing something". Engaging on Loc after deep airstrike was done. Over it, engaging F-16 with MiG-21 and getting chased away.
Pakistan also returned their POW like Pak returned during Kargil as a kindly gesture but indi mentality showed true colors and didn't appreciate.
As far as I remember (and you may be in case of Abhinandan), POWs were returned only after direct military threats by India, not by any goodwill.
Pakistanis never returned Indian PoWs of 1971 even getting its 97,000 and tortured & mutilated bodies of many.
Rest assured Pakistan can take india alone.
Imran Khan & Shah Mehmood Qureshi brutally disagree with you.
Not like the super power India who was crying from pole to pole after galwan slap and begging US, Aus, and Japan to save her from the Dragon which was not even spitting fire.
It was US which offered to support which India refuted (US can't do anything much in Asia Pacific either).
The issue involved in entire episode is that US wants to form another group called "QUAD" similar to NATO with US, India, Japan and Australia as members which India doesn't wish to join. You might better read the shit written inside article than overview in article.

US wants India to join western block, Soviet collapse & tensions made India out of Eastern block and India strategists suggest India can make its own block.
But I appreciate your detailed analysis.
I too would appreciate in case you reply after reading about anything.

Majority of Pakistani thinkers don't know what India's strategic goals are or foreign policy standard is or how India sees itself in world. They hence won't be able to have correct notion about how India sees Pakistan. It's definitely not the way Pakistanis think.
 
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*Replying a month old post.

Gap between Indian & Pakistani military capabilities was too thin as compared to today in 71. So basically, past was more favourable for Pakistan as gap with India is now much larger economically & militarily, it's still expanding.

India wouldn't have needed USSR if US & China were not equation. In fact, India wanted to make Pakistan cease to exist.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/reveal-names-of-cia-moles-of-1971-war-cic-393131
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/india-could-have-split-west-pakistan-in-1971/

Indeed if India was successful in wiping Pakistan out from map in 1971, NATO would have got another free uncontained threat in Asia. So, chosen to maintain status quo.

In existing state, Indian navy alone is enough to create a blockade long enough to do job anyway

It's India itself who had a thumb role to itself to not to cross LoC

Indian figures were consistent since day 1. These were Pakistani figures which came out to be totally different from mouths of Nazwaz , Musharraf and state media.
Pakistan even refuses to publish numbers of martyrs in border clashes. Indeed I won't have to struggle to get concensus that Indian sources are neutraler and Pak is known for hiding stats.

27 Feb only reflects how easy is to make Pakistanis happy, just by "doing something". Engaging on Loc after deep airstrike was done. Over it, engaging F-16 with MiG-21 and getting chased away.

As far as I remember (and you may be in case of Abhinandan), POWs were returned only after direct military threats by India, not by any goodwill.
Pakistanis never returned Indian PoWs of 1971 even getting its 97,000 and tortured & mutilated bodies of many.

Imran Khan & Shah Mehmood Qureshi brutally disagree with you.

It was US which offered to support which India refuted (US can't do anything much in Asia Pacific either).
The issue involved in entire episode is that US wants to form another group called "QUAD" similar to NATO with US, India, Japan and Australia as members which India doesn't wish to join. You might better read the shit written inside article than overview in article.

US wants India to join western block, Soviet collapse & tensions made India out of Eastern block and India strategists suggest India can make its own block.

I too would appreciate in case you reply after reading about anything.

Majority of Pakistani thinkers don't know what India's strategic goals are or foreign policy standard is or how India sees itself in world. They hence won't be able to have correct notion about how India sees Pakistan. It's definitely not the way Pakistanis think.
Thank you for analysis. I will reply soon.
It is good academic conversation.
 
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This thesis was written in December 2019 but I had implied some PLA movement which makes more sense now after current India-China standoff in Laddakh even though de-escalation is taking place.

The write up references maps and tables, but I was not able to include rich text so I have rewritten this thesis in an abridged form but still it is quiet long, but it could had been more useful in the presence of colored maps and table – a picture worth thousand words!

Lastly, there is no secret information here. All military information was collected from the internet.

Mao Tse-tung –
“Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent.”


Surprise attack is the key to any successful military victory but Islam prohibits undeclared war. So Pakistan has to throw Shimla Accord to dust bin and declare that human rights violation of Kashmiris will be an Act of War and Pakistan reserves the right to defend Kashmiri people. With this declaration in the open, Pakistan can preemptively strike India with whatever means Pakistan capable of. PAF role is supreme. PAF has to use ‘a la Israel Operation Focus, and destroy 50-60% IAF bases and planes on ground. If that happens, then Pakistan can dominate skies and support Pakistan Infantry and mechanized formations advancing in Kashmir and in the eastern war theater.

This war is for Kashmir and Pakistan must occupy entire JKL, Himachal Pradesh, and Eastern Punjab. I will explain why Pakistan has to occupy Himachal Pradesh and large parts of Indian/Eastern Punjab.

Pakistan Objectives:

1. Take whole of Kashmir including Jammu, and Laddakh
2. Wrest control of Pakistan upstream rivers coming from Kashmir
3. Occupy Himachal Pradesh in the further east of Kashmir for bargaining
4. Occupy parts of Indian Punjab to take control of river heads, barrages, dams on
Satlej, Ravi, and Beas – for bargaining
5. Defend Sindh where Pakistan is weakest

Here is Pakistan Kashmir Offense to Conquer Scenario:

Pakistan attack Kashmir Valley with strength of two corps, I and X. Kashmiris will cutoff Indian supply lines and attack from behind. Pakistan should be able to take valley comparatively easily. Pakistan can neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some mysterious reasons XIV Corps – Leh gets its attention diverted.

A coordinated attack with China will ensure Pakistan to take entire Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and most of Indian Punjab. Later Pakistan and China can settle borderlines in Laddakh amicably.

Pakistan Army Strength for Battle in Kashmir:

Pakistan Army’s strength lies in its experience of urban and rugged mountainous warfare it gained in ex FATA and ops and planning to combat RAW-NDS sponsored terrorism from Afghanistan. PA will face similar urban and mountainous landscape. This army is battle hardened and is the only army in the world that is victorious in the War on Terror. The desperate terrorists, Pakistan Army faced and defeated were the most vicious and ruthless in the history of mankind. Indian Army in Kashmir with low morale, fatigued by a long urban war, and one which will be constantly watching its back is not in an envious position to confront Pak Army. Most of Indian troops will be killed and many will become POW which will present valuable bargaining options later on.

With India losing in Kashmir it will strike hard at Punjab and Sindh and it will try to take as many Pakistani areas as possible so that after ceasefire it can bargain to take Kashmir back in return for Pakistani lands. It is, therefore, paramount that Pakistan not only take entire JKL but also Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Indian Punjab holding Ravi, Satlej, Beas water heads, barrages, and dams for bargaining. If that does not happen, then entire Kashmir operation will be futile!!

Pakistan’s only weapon is surprise and that can only be achieved by PAF.

PAF has to perform three roles:

1. Surprise India in the skies
2. Support PA Infantry and Mechanized Divisions
3. Support PN. PN is totally outnumbered by IN but we hope it can defend Karachi and Gwadar ports with help from PAF and keep Pakistan sea lanes open.

PN and PAF Roles:

Defend Karachi, and Gwadar ports from IN and IAF Ship/air-launched Brahmos Mach 3 missiles.

Below maps shows Indian Corps geographical locations (in red text) which will take part in war with Pakistan. Central and Eastern Commands are not shown as they are deployed on Indian Eastern Borders. They can be moved but India is not in a position to move all its army on Pakistan and Kashmir borders. With PLA moving troops in proximity with Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, and weaknesses in Mizoram, Meghalia, and Nagaland; troops from Eastern Command cannot be moved to Western borders. But India has enough numbers on its borders with Pakistan. Latest reports suggest, PLA has moved troops on Indo-Tibetan borders.

Pakistan to attack valley with 2 x corps strength:

Pakistan should neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some not so mysterious reasons, IA XIV Corps – Leh get its attention diverted.

Indian Army on the Western and Northern Borders:

1. Northern Command, Udhampur - Comprised of three corps, entirely focused on JKL (Jammu, Kashmir, Laddakh):

XIV Corps – Leh
XV Corps – Srinagar
XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu)
XIV Corps ↓ – Leh can’t move if engaged by China!

That leaves XV Corps – Srinagar and XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu) for offense and defense. These two crops can be helped by IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command.

In the best case scenario Pakistan Army will be facing three IA corps - XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command, and worst case scenario; four IA corps – three from JKL and fourth IX Corps – Yol from Western Command ---- shown in light brown box.

2. Western Command, Chandimandir

40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
II Corps – Ambala
IX Corps – Yol
XI Corps – Jalandhar

Western Command is critical for India. Its sphere will include Pakistani Punjab and also Jammu in case of IX Corps, Yol, shown as light green box.

Both Northern and Western Commands are central in Indian plan to defend Kashmir and attack Pakistani Punjab. Pakistan Army has to engage and neutralize them.

3. 50th Parachute Brigade, Agra

India will use its paratroopers in all of Kashmir, but may also use it to cutoff Pakistan supply lines elsewhere. India will also need paratroopers for potential war with China!

4. South Western Command, Jaipur, Rajasthan

42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
I Corps – Mathura
X Corps – Bathinda

South Western Command can be used to attack Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, shown as light yellow.

5. Southern Command, Pune

41st Artillery Div. – Pune
XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
XXI Corps – Bhopal

Southern Command is far in the Indian territories. If they attack Sindh, they will be crossing Thar Desert and can be targeted by PAF during offensive move, shown as light yellow box.

Pakistan Offense:

1. I Corps – Mangla
2. X Corps – Rawalpindi

I Corps - Mangla and X Corps – Rawalpindi to neutralize Indian XIV Corps – Leh, XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command (WC).

If both Pakistan and China coordinate their offensive then XIV Corps – Leh, and IX Corps – Yol can be diverted by PLA from Laddakh and Tibet. [Latest reports suggest, PLA has deployed troops, Type 15 light tanks, and 155mm mobile howitzers on Indo-Tibetan borders.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/jun...ht_tanks_deployed_in_tibet_for_exercises.html, sic]

Action Scenario:

1. I Crops, Mangla – Kashmir Offense

Occupy Jammu and block IA IX Yol corps from WC.

Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.

2. X Corps, Rawalpindi – Kashmir Offense.

Objectives:
  1. Occupy Valley
  2. Move towards Himachal Pradesh.
Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.

It is essential that PA neutralizes IA IX Yol Corps to blunt a 3rd of IA WC. This will block IA reinforcement to JKL, greatly obstruct free movement of WC strike role in Pakistani Punjab – result will put entire WC in disarray.

I corps - 6th Armour Div. Gujranwala to move in Indian Punjab and to Himachal Pradesh. Entire Arm. Div won’t be moving in Indian heartland at this point.

Pakistan Defensive Actions to Defend Punjab


PA Defense Elements for North-Eastern Punjab:

1. XXX Corps – Gujranwala
2. IV Corps – Lahore

PA has to defend offensive from IA, WC Chandimandir which comprises:

1. 40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
2. II Corps – Ambala
3. IX Corps – Yol
4. XI Corps – Jalandhar

Actions Scenarios:

Indian WC ↓ could be immobilized by PLA from Indo-Tibetan border [this may not happen as China has its own strategic and economic reason].

IA will mobilize Strike groups from WC. PA I and II Corps had neutralized IA IX crops from WC.

Indian army’s rest of WC corps elements and SW corps elements will launch full force attack on Lahore and Sialkot.

PA XXX Corps, Gujranwala & IV Corps, Lahore, will defend Pakistani Punjab with help from 6th Armour Div Gujranwala (this will need coordination as 6th Armour will also move in India Punjab and then to Himachal Pradesh).

They have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow in Indian Punjab and help consolidate gains in Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh!!

PA Defense Elements for Central-Eastern Punjab:

XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend offensive from IA – WC.

Indian South Western Command – Jaipur, Rajasthan:

1. 42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
2. I Corps – Mathura
3. X Corps – Bathinda

Actions Scenarios:

XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend central Punjab from attack from India SW command– Jaipur, Rajasthan. This corps will have to defend Central Punjab and Cholistan. They could be helped by XII Corps – Quetta, pre-mobilized.

XXXI Corps would have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow!!

PA Defense Elements for Sindh:


Sindh is Pakistan’s weakest link in Eastern War Theater. Only V Corps, Karachi covers entire Sindh against India SC – Pune.

V Crops, Karachi:

1. 16 Infantry, Pannu Aqil
2. 18th Infantry, Hyderabad
3. 25th Mechanized Div. Malir
4. 31st Mechanized Div., Hyderabad

Indian Southern Command – Pune:

1. 41st Artillery Div. – Pune
2. XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
3. XXI Corps – Bhopal

Action Scenarios:

IA Southern Command is far deep in Indian territories. They, however, will be used to attack Sindh including Hyderabad and upper Sindh all along east of Indus River. IA will be crossing Thar to invade Sindh. That will be a time for PAF to engage IA formations to destroy moving infantry and mechanized columns in Rajasthan and Thar deserts. Pakistan is weak in Anti-Armour gunships so PAF has to take a very intensive role throughout eastern theaters.

PA V corps will utilize infantry divisions from Pannu Aqil and Hyderabad, and Mechanized divisions from Malir and Hyderabad. V Corps will need reinforcement from XII corps, Quetta.

End Game:

It is often sighted that PA is weak against India. I don’t think it is true. Pakistan has enough strength to hold India and even occupy many parts of India. Pakistan military planners should not be short sighted to only focus on liberating Kashmir and to defending its Eastern borders. They must plan to liberate entire Kashmir including Jammu and Laddakh, as well as occupy large parts of Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh to later bargain for Pakistan territories India shall be able to occupy in Pakistani Punjab and Sindh.
The occupation of Indian Punjab is necessary not just for bargaining but most importantly for conducting khalistan refreundum and the creation of a buffer state between between pakistan and ganja jumna hindutva terrorists.
Remember the permanent solution only lies in the disintegration of India. As long as we share our border with these bunch of extremist sanghis peace is not possible.
 
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Less than 10 % of population in Kashmir valley supports Pakistan, Pakistan thought the same way during operation Gibraltar and was forced to defend Lahore.
You people are known for shameless ness.Now it's your word against the whole world.
That was 1965 thanks to modi in 2020 almost entire population is against you indians.
 
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You people are known for shameless ness.Now it's your word against the whole world.
That was 1965 thanks to modi in 2020 almost entire population is against you indians.
August 5th 2020 nothing happened in Kashmir, people are lining up for jobs. Some even displayed Indian flags.
 
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August 5th 2020 nothing happened in Kashmir, people are lining up for jobs. Some even displayed Indian flags.
:rofl: :lol:
What a perfect mind similarity of fake Indian media,it's elected extremist government and general Indian public.
 
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The occupation of Indian Punjab is necessary not just for bargaining but most importantly for conducting khalistan refreundum and the creation of a buffer state between between pakistan and ganja jumna hindutva terrorists.
Asking a couple of questions to help me understand.

If Indian Punjab is occupied won't it start the unraveling of individual states of India? Moving from Punjab to Deccan plateau does not pose any natural barriers. Moving into Punjab means red lines have been crossed. Why stop there? The concept of buffer state would not apply in my opinion.

On Khalistan, If there is a Khalistan state then there is a danger to Pakistani Punjab, since Khalistan aims to unite the erstwhile undivided Punjab. From a geo strategic perspective how will it be contained to Indian Punjab? Would that be trading a bulky slow enemy to a focused rival at the border? How can Khalistan not claim at least the historical Sikh/Khalsa places that are now in Pakistan?

Khalistan (1) in my mind is like Kurdistan. They are good to support as long as they are contained. Is that an incorrect assessment?
 
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