200 that can take JF-17 in its standard aircraft configuration. No need for the needless.
At maximum, the PAF is prepared to push its combat inventory to 500 aircraft.. and wants a minimum of 300.
I think you are grossly underestimating your actual need. KSA is about to do a push for you guys to some ME countries with respect to buying the JFT. I'd expect 100-150 JFT's sold in the next 5-7 years or so. SO your cost further decreases to produce the current variant.
Now that you'd have customers (including the PAF), what do you think they'd want? Upgrades with AESA and all. So this really is a journey, not a small sprint. So eventually another variant of the JFT will be created. Like I said, economies of scale means jack in this case....
Also, the PAF is keeping 500 jets for now. Starting 2019-2020, more $$ will be available due to a rise in the economy and comes with more money, is the need to power project. So no matter how you look at it, your neighbor is fielding SU-30's, Rafale, Mirage-2K9 (upgraded standard), and probably -16 or -18 IN versions. And looking at this serious inventory, you think they'd want to stick to the gold old JFT with "economies of scale" in mind?
The -22 was not produced with 187 planes in mind. It was to be produced first above a 1000, then 800, then 300+..and then finally 187. The result is that it is one of the most expensive programs ever produced and costs higher to fly than any comparable program; that is saying without the added extras of LO maintenance.
Nawaz Sharif has only slightly improved the situation and that too because Raheel Sharif still retains some of his concience as comapred to his predeccsor. Yet the PAF will still seek any future assets on a mix of loan a token down payment which is not going to be enough to finance both more JF-17s (which have NO requirement in the current Air Staff requirement beyond 150) and a replacement asset for the older Mirages.
So, just as you having read many things so have I.. and instead of speaking to many only spoken to the right ones..and can confidently disagree with you knowing what I know.
You started out with a great notion from the -22, but you ended your post with typical B.S about the Pakistan Army. RS is a great guy, but the guy can only run budjet for his house hold. If your military generals were this effing smart, Pakistan would've become South Korea (economy wise) like 40 years ago. So PLEASE, don't bring a military general into the topic, with 0 education or training on how to grow a country's economy!! These are things the civilians do and they are doing them with a pretty darn clear strategy that's already working. The US investors are excited about Pakistan and here you guys are, ignoring the work done by civilians, and always including military generals into useless credits. Posts like these, destabilize Pakistani military's image as someone will call it out and it doesn't look nice. A soldier protects the country, he doesn't have any idea on how to create a business growth strategy. That's civilians forte.
On loans, yes, there are loans because the entire nation, didn't care to pay taxes for over 60 years!!!! So when nations steal from the government and don't pay taxes, what alternative are you left with outside of taking loans? There is none.
But things are moving in the right direction and the loans can be paid off as the economy and the tax net grows.
I am sure PAF is well aware of the future sanctions from US & this will effect F16's as we wont be able to buy spare parts as a result the fleet will be grounded, but up to some extent. .
The US has never put sanctions on a democratic country (unless someone did nuke tests, etc). So Pakistan doesn't need to worry too much. Also, the PAF now keeps at-least 5 years of spares on them, just so if there are ever sanctions, the -16 fleet can fly for 6-8 years without issues. That's a lot of time to induct another platform, etc.