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JF-17 Block-3 -- Updates, News & Discussion

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If the PAF opts for J-10CE? Then no, I think they'll probably cap their JF-17 induction to the 188 already planned (or maybe push it to 200).
The question then is what will replace the 200 odd JF-17s in next two decades? After all, a new jet program takes over a decade from start to finish, and another decade or so of induction.
Will Pakistan start looking at it's replacement and initiate a new program in next 5yrs? I find that unlikely. I suspect we will be producing the newer blocks well into the decade and beyond. Newer blocks might replace the oldest aircraft, but given our history with trainers, I don't think we will stop producing these anytime soon
 
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I think PAF will continue to build JF17s for quite some time, even if they go for the J10CE. If you look at the Mushtaq programme and see how many Mushtaqs Pakistan has made, you can see that PAF is keen to maintain that manufacturing skillset and associated infrastructure it has now developed to serve as a bridge to Azm. So, there is no way they will stop at 188, or 200. I can see it easily going to 300+. I dont see PAF making the J10CE in Pakistan either (in the same way VT4's were not made in Pakistan) as that will increase the overall programme cost of the J10 procurement due to new manufacturing infrastructure to make the J10 and PAF will learn nothing from making the J10CE in Pakistan that it has already learnt on the JF17 Programme.
 
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I think PAF will continue to build JF17s for quite some time, even if they go for the J10CE. If you look at the Mushtaq programme and see how many Mushtaqs Pakistan has made, you can see that PAF is keen to maintain that manufacturing skillset and associated infrastructure it has now developed to serve as a bridge to Azm. So, there is no way they will stop at 188, or 200. I can see it easily going to 300+. I dont see PAF making the J10CE in Pakistan either (in the same way VT4's were not made in Pakistan) as that will increase the overall programme cost of the J10 procurement due to new manufacturing infrastructure to make the J10 and PAF will learn nothing from making the J10CE in Pakistan that it has already learnt on the JF17 Programme.
Mushtaqs?? :o:
 
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The PAF generally doesn't commit to new platforms unless it plans to buy 90+ units in the long-run.

The F-6/A-5 and F-7P/PG are obvious examples, but look at the higher cost aircraft too:
  • 96 Mirage III/5s (before the used airframes)
  • 40 + 71 F-16A/B Block-15s (before Pressler)
  • 55 + 20 F-16C/D Block-52+ (before Earthquake)
  • 188 JF-17s (and possibly more later)
I don't think this rule would change for an off-the-shelf fighter now. It wouldn't make sense given the large upfront cost of inducting a new platform. If the PAF opts for the J-10CE, then I think it will aim to purchase at least 90 until the NGFA comes online. That route will definitely take resources away from any further JF-17 development.
I understand the financial logic but purely technically it makes no sense to me to go for J10C at this juncture. We are at the cusp of generation change and to spend your meagre resources on a 4th gen platform at this point in time makes no sense. Perhaps I am missing something. It would be interesting to hear your response.
Rdgards
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The question then is what will replace the 200 odd JF-17s in next two decades? After all, a new jet program takes over a decade from start to finish, and another decade or so of induction.
Will Pakistan start looking at it's replacement and initiate a new program in next 5yrs? I find that unlikely. I suspect we will be producing the newer blocks well into the decade and beyond. Newer blocks might replace the oldest aircraft, but given our history with trainers, I don't think we will stop producing these anytime soon
They'll probably continue flying the JF-17 well past the 20-year mark. We can keep the F-7Ps and Mirages up, so I don't think PAC will have trouble with the JF-17.
I understand the financial logic but purely technically it makes no sense to me to go for J10C at this juncture. We are at the cusp of generation change and to spend your meagre resources on a 4th gen platform at this point in time makes no sense. Perhaps I am missing something. It would be interesting to hear your response.
Rdgards
A
I guess the Chinese are offering the PAF a net-new capability through the J-10CE. It could be a VLRAAM (e.g., PL-15), or something else, but I'd wager that is the reason why the PAF would be interested.

However, if the PAF acquires the J-10CE, it wouldn't be to plug a short-term need. Pakistan can't afford to think along those lines.

The J-10CE would fit into the PAF's long-term needs, e.g., complement the NGFA. The PAF could use the J-10CE and NGFA together for offensive operations, while the JF-17 is the main defensive asset.
 
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I think the next big PAC project would be AZM. So, either we continue producing the JF-17, or roll it up and start moving PAC towards AZM (while in the meantime acquiring another fighter like J-10CE). Or, PAC keeps up with the JF-17.


That's plausible. We shouldn't forget potential export users either.

For some countries, the JF-17 might be a way to get a custom air warfare solution if they're willing to pay for the design and integration work. This could be of interest to Azerbaijan and Argentina.

A reduced RCS JF-17 (from technologies being developed for Project AZM) and adding all the EW equipment that can be added is probably what the PAF will do. The Swedish model.

EW Sub-systems and munitions maybe what they will work on to keep the JF-17 competitive, like the SAAB lightweight air launch decoy. An intelligent swarm of these could help overwhelm enemy air defenses and even 4.5 Gen fighter sensors until the JF-17 is close enough to launch its weapons.

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Adding layers of defense, similar to what is being done for the Eurofighter

Also, it’s possible with the large electrical capabilities of the J-10; perhaps it will carry more power dedicated EW pods on the wing tips and under the wings; akin to the J-16.



and perhaps PL-20 to take on enemy AWACS, tankers, and unsuspecting Su-30MKI far away and forming up.

 
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I think PAF will continue to build JF17s for quite some time, even if they go for the J10CE. If you look at the Mushtaq programme and see how many Mushtaqs Pakistan has made, you can see that PAF is keen to maintain that manufacturing skillset and associated infrastructure it has now developed to serve as a bridge to Azm. So, there is no way they will stop at 188, or 200. I can see it easily going to 300+. I dont see PAF making the J10CE in Pakistan either (in the same way VT4's were not made in Pakistan) as that will increase the overall programme cost of the J10 procurement due to new manufacturing infrastructure to make the J10 and PAF will learn nothing from making the J10CE in Pakistan that it has already learnt on the JF17 Programme.
I owe a debt of gratitude to "Mushtaq" for teaching me how to fly :laugh:
 
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