Hello Peshwa,
I am still not able to get how are you finding my first post as emotional. May be you want to feel it that way but in my revisited opinion it is still a rational one. Lets face the reality on ground. Pakistan has fire-power but not enough to hold India back with it - longer. This is not something that only Military Generals would know and understand. These are facts on ground no matter how much spirit we show, we understand our chances of hurting India are thinner than being hurt by it. India is 1400 Million Heads and we are 170. Indian has nearly 10 times bigger economy than ours and even on defense budget, India spends 7-8 times more than we do. Logically speaking, Pakistan cannot build a defensive wall that India could not cross. So defensive approach does not suite us.
Graphican,
I beg to differ. Defensive approach is actually the only option available to Pakistan currently....
Pakistan has invested in a lot of offensive weapons, however it currenlty lags in its air defence (The introduction of Spada-2000 helps but does not provide complete immunity).....A task which is entrusted to the airforce. Unless your airforce is impeccable and is able to respond with lightning speed at the sign of an intrusion or attack, your threat levels remain high. (You have to take the possibility of human error seriously....thats how the Israelis won the 6 day war)....
On the other hand, India is much ahead as far as Air defence is concerned.....With a healthy combination of Offence and defence, coupled with numerical superiority, it will become very hard for Pakistan to fight a war over Indian skies.
So the way I see it, Pakistan has to rely on fighting the war on their turf and skies in order to work the odds in their favor.....Which in turn is considered a purely defensive stance.....only problem being that Pakistan is yet to invest heavily in defensive weapons....
This is again how you would like the things to be seen. Let me ask you a simple question. Do we differ that India and Pakistan are Enemies? If your answer is no than bare with me on reality. Whenever we had a chance to hurt India secretly, we did and you are aware of that.. aren't you? Now this is India's opportunity to hurt Pakistan through whatever means it has. Baluchistan and FATA are the best grounds for that. Until and unless you are ready to term Indian Intelligence Agencies as Clan of Fools, you got to accept that India is enjoying its turn of troubling Pakistan
Graphican, on paper, it sounds just right.....all conspiracy theories have a way of making sense...(or one tries to find sense in them).....that is the reason why they have an audience....
However, blaming the actions of TTP on Indian Intelligence agencies is nothing more than ignoring the fundamental flaw in the Pakistani policy since the Zia era. ....
The Islamization of Pakistan I feel is the sole cause of the extremism you face.....
Take 2 situations:
Aghan Taliban: Born out of US and Pakistani efforts to use the Islamic identity of Afhgans to mould the minds of Afghans into justifying the war against the Soviets....through Madrasas and training camps in Pakistans NWFP, the Cold war was able to mould the minds of millions of Afghans into extremism
TTP: an element of the same where the Madrasas in FATA and NWFP were used to train Mujahideen to fight the Soviet occupation....
I have always maintained that Afghan Taliban and TTP are one and the same and operate closely...
30 years later, with the lack of repatriating the Mujahideen into regular society with minimal control on their activities has resulted in the current situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.....
India has very little to do in worsening this situation.....The war is more a civil war....one of ideologies....
The TTP are fighting to make Pakistan an Islamic/Sharia state, while the GOP and army are trying to protect Pakistans secular and Liberal identity......
The current situation in Pakistan is NOT an India vs. Pakistan battle as many make it out to be....
I feel, that it is this false projection of cause that has slowed the pace and verocity of the fight against TTP by concentrating on the external enemy (India) when its TTP (Internal ) which is the largest threat to Pakistan's identity!
Regarding the second part of it, Indeed, this is the only reason which keeps India bare cool mind. I understand Indian people eat the same wheat which Pakistani do and their head boils on incidents like 26/11 as much ours do with these suicide attacks in Pakistan. But in war, India has more to loose than Pakistan. We would be "dead" but India would be "limp" which is not a pleasant option for it.. and to add a little more to it, there are few Nations on Indian border that would like to see a limp chap so it could be easier for them to finish the job that Pakistan could not.. and this is exactly what has been
predicted. Since this hurts my fellows from India so I am keeping it as short as possible.
For most part I agree with you....minus the Ghazwa-ul-hind part....
However....here's what was referring to in my second point....
This is the age of economic war....meaning, that war in the traditional sense of armies battling it out is not the only way to cripple and defeat an enemy....
Take the cold war.....It is the prime example of an economic war where trying to match USA pound to pound in weapons, space etc lead the USSR to crumble under its own weight....
India need not fight a conventional war with Pakistan.....economic crippling of the country itself can limit Pakistans "teeth"
India enjoys the "love" and influence in the world at the moment since it serves the economic incentive of the world.....Hence compared to Pakistan, India is not only able to use diplomacy to deny Pakistan many opportunites, but is also able to turn international opinion regarding them....This actually hurts Pakistan more than a conventional war....
The more Pakistan feels the threat to match India in ability (wrt to armed forces), the more resources it allocates away from other key areas (esp. with a fledging economy)....creating unrest, unemployment etc. The unhapiness of the masses itself can snowball into a huge problem....
Hence I feel India has been smart in holding itself back .....why fight an enemy that has an internal war....and one that can be defeated economically with minimal loss of human liife?
