Is Pakistan facing bankruptcy?

[Logic note]

Thats an extremely simplistic and flawed analysis of the situation, especially where you try and weave in the Taliban, which remains a movement isolated to certain sections of Pakistan.

Given the hundreds of thousands of farmers who have been committing suicide every year in India, one woudl think your logic would have meant that India was awash in Hindu extremists - but perhaps you are correct, your theory might explain the recent communal violence and riots across India.

The farmers want their pound of flesh.

Dear Agno

Farmer suicide is india was not a result of a bankrupt nation ..
but i understand your intention to bring this topic .
Farmer suicides were because of failed monsoon and due to which they are not able to pay back their loans . this situation was in few pockets and was tackled by government by pumping money by waiving the loans . however in pakistan .. government is taking money from them in form of taxes .

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Dear Agno

Farmer suicide is india was not a result of a bankrupt nation ..
but i understand your intention to bring this topic .
Farmer suicides were because of failed monsoon and due to which they are not able to pay back their loans . this situation was in few pockets and was tackled by government by pumping money by waiving the loans . however in pakistan .. government is taking money from them in form of taxes .

Please read the posts more carefully - taxing agriculture is a suggestion at this point, not yet translated into policy or law.

Nonetheless, assuming taxing agriculture does go through, the basic idea is the same, that the system set up by the government (financial distress through taxation or the financial system set up by the government) is responsible for the financial distress of farmers.

Pure and simple, financial distress is the common denominator and the root cause for the problems of farmers once you get past the mumbo jumbo.

So using your logic, India awash in Hindu extremists? Or are they just killing themselves off before it gets to that?

Quite frankly I do not agree with your argument - I fail to see the need to drag in the Taliban into everything related to Pakistan, especially when you base it on a nonexistent premise anyway.

 

[Logic note]

Please read the posts more carefully - taxing agriculture is a suggestion at this point, not yet translated into policy or law.

Nonetheless, assuming taxing agriculture does go through, the basic idea is the same, that the system set up by the government (financial distress through taxation or the financial system set up by the government) is responsible for the financial distress of farmers.

Pure and simple, financial distress is the common denominator and the root cause for the problems of farmers once you get past the mumbo jumbo.

So using your logic, India awash in Hindu extremists? Or are they just killing themselves off before it gets to that?

Quite frankly I do not agree with your argument - I fail to see the need to drag in the Taliban into everything related to Pakistan, especially when you base it on a nonexistent premise anyway.

Agriculture, real estate to be taxed: Tareen -DAWN - Top Stories; October 14, 2008

“There will be no sacred cows,” said Mr Tareen while addressing a news conference after attending the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF in Washington.

“Not even agriculture?” he was asked. “No sacred cows. Real estate, agriculture, all will be taxed.”

I dont know if it is a suggestion only ..

Yes i have bought in an Imaginary situation .. which i agree is least possible scenario . but a poor farmer will have to find a method to raise his anger .

(financial distress through taxation or the financial system set up by the government)

no loans taken by farmer in India was from private lenders not from nationalised banks . secondly government is paying back not taking from them . you dont see diff ?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Agriculture, real estate to be taxed: Tareen -DAWN - Top Stories; October 14, 2008

I dont know if it is a suggestion only ..

At this point it is just a suggestion, and in fact one not even referred to directly - notice the reference was merely to 'no sacred cows'. If and when the proposal is advanced, we will also have to analyze the structure of the tax polcies - taxation across the board, or on land holdings over a certain size etc.

Yes i have bought in an Imaginary situation .. which i agree is least possible scenario . but a poor farmer will have to find a method to raise his anger .

no loans taken by farmer in India was from private lenders not from nationalised banks . secondly government is paying back not taking from them . you dont see diff ?

The point is that is is a system set up by the government that is respnsible - the private banks exist and follow policies approved and sanctioned by the government, so it is the 'system' that will be blamed.

I do not see the difference between financial distress caused by taxation or financial distress caused by unpayable interset on loans - either way it is a government system that is contirbuting to the economic downfall of farmers, and the bottom line is that these peope are mad because they have no money to make a living.

 

[Logic note]

no there were no private banks .. but people taking loans from other people ..
so you cant compare both .

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

no there were no private banks .. but people taking loans from other people ..
so you cant compare both .

That may have been part of the problem, but it still points to a failure of government - in either not making cheaper loans available, or failing to regulate those entitites that were making loans.

It appears however that the failure was of government across a broad range of issues:

Studies have shown that those farmers who felt hopeless enough to resort to desperate measures had mostly been let down by the institutions of governance. There was no health care available, no advice on how to understand the problems of a technologically advanced agriculture, no social security net. The prime minister’s package for Vidarbha addresses some of these issues. Yet, the matter of improved governance remains untouched.

Whether it is certification of the quality of seeds, fertilisers and pesticides or good advice on best agricultural practices or health and education services, the farmer is entirely dependent on inputs from the government. The Government has been found wanting in all these respects. The recent Radhakrishnan report has highlighted problems of governance as being central to farmers’ distress.

Farmers and firefighters

 

[Logic note]

That may have been part of the problem, but it still points to a failure of government - in either not making cheaper loans available, or failing to regulate those entitites that were making loans.

It appears however that the failure was of government across a broad range of issues:

yes I agree on this Point .. it was failure of GOI but taxing them directly because of governments failure is diff from failure to understand the problem is one sector . may be you succeeded in diverting the topic from bankruptcy of Pakistan to Farmer suicide .. Lol
its not easy to discuss with a Pakistani

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

yes I agree on this Point .. it was failure of GOI but taxing them directly because of governments failure is diff from failure to understand the problem is one sector . may be you succeeded in diverting the topic from bankruptcy of Pakistan to Farmer suicide .. Lol
its not easy to discuss with a Pakistani

Well you brought up a hypothetical argument of agricultural taxation driving people to Talibanization, so I had to argue by bringing up an existing scenario in India where financial distress for farmers has not resulted in a resort to extremism.

But I still disagree with the distinction you are trying to make here - the underlying cause here is economic distress for farmers, and the government is held responsible in one way or another.

 

[Kumar]

Pakistan gets help from China for ailing economy

The Associated Press: Pakistan gets help from China for ailing economy

BEIJING (AP) — Pakistan's president Wednesday won more help from longtime ally China as his country grapples with an ailing economy and chronic electricity shortages, though the prospect of a much anticipated civilian nuclear deal remained uncertain.
Pakistani media have speculated that President Asif Ali Zardari would seek a nuclear power deal with China after neighbor and nuclear archrival India secured a similar pact with the United States.
Zardari and Chinese President Hu Jintao attended a signing ceremony here for 11 agreements, including deals on economic and technical cooperation, minerals, environmental protection, satellite purchases, agricultural research, and electricity.
However, no specifics of the deals were released, and there was no mention of a civilian nuclear deal.
Pakistan has argued in vain for equal treatment from Washington after India secured an agreement allowing American businesses to sell nuclear fuel and technology to India for use in civilian programs.
Pakistan is desperately seeking assistance to alleviate an economic crisis brought on by higher oil and food prices.
Increased expenses have pushed inflation to 25 percent, wrecking the government's finances and exacerbating a trade gap that is fast eating up the country's foreign currency reserves.
Rising demand and inadequate energy infrastructure in Pakistan has led to nationwide electricity outages, fueling protests. Residents must contend with up to 10 hours a day of power outages, though officials are trying to maintain supplies to factories.
Compounding the problems, al-Qaida and Taliban militants are using Pakistan's tribal areas as bases from which to attack U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, spurring U.S. frustration with Pakistan. Cross-border U.S. raids have strained ties with Pakistan.
Zardari is on a four-day trip to China, his first official bilateral visit since taking office in September.
Pakistan and China have been close allies for decades, and China is a leading source of investment and arms supplies for Pakistan. Bilateral trade between the two topped $7 billion last year, with a goal of reaching $15 billion by 2011.
Both nations have also fought border wars with rival India.
"The only way I could do justice to the memory of my late wife and my late father-in-law was to make sure that I made my first president's trip to China as my official visit," Zardari told Hu during a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People.
Zardari's wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was killed in a bombing last year, and his father-in-law, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, "are old friends of the Chinese people,"' Hu replied.
The two "made important contributions to the initiation and development of China-Pakistan relations in their lifetime. This is something we will never forget," Hu said before the two leaders went into private meetings.
Experts say a nuclear agreement with Pakistan would need to overcome significant political uncertainties in the South Asian country.
"The political situation is so uncertain, nobody quite knows how strong the radicals are ... I would be surprised if the Chinese made a concrete offer," said Rajesh Basrur, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Basrur said members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group states would also need to approve the deal. The group restricts nuclear trade with states that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or don't have comprehensive safeguards.
Zardari was scheduled to hold talks with other top Chinese leaders, including Premier Wen Jiabao.
Zardari easily won the presidency last month after longtime U.S. ally Pervez Musharraf quit under threat of impeachment.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Kumar,

Please refer to my post earlier in the thread:http://www.defence.pk/forums/207045-post100.html

 

[Kumar]

Kumar,

Please refer to my post earlier in the thread:http://www.defence.pk/forums/207045-post100.html

Oh Sure !!!

I used to comment. I felt this posts are impt.

 

[pkpatriotic]

New intelligence report says Pakistan is 'on the edge'
By Jonathan S. Landay and John Walcott

WASHINGTON — A growing al Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence, says a soon-to-be completed U.S. intelligence assessment.

A U.S. official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad." Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge."

The first official summarized the estimate's conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: "no money, no energy, no government."

Six U.S. officials who helped draft or are aware of the document's findings confirmed them to McClatchy on the condition of anonymity because NIEs are top secret and are restricted to the president, senior officials and members of Congress. An NIE's conclusions reflect the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

The NIE on Pakistan, along with others being prepared on Afghanistan and Iraq, will underpin a "strategic assessment" of the situation that Army Gen. David Petraeus, who's about to take command of all U.S. forces in the region, has requested. The aim of the assessment — seven years after the U.S. sent troops into Afghanistan — is to determine whether a U.S. presence in the region can be effective and if so what U.S. strategy should be.

The findings also are intended to support the Bush administration's effort to recommend the resources the next president will need for Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan at a time the economic crisis is straining the Treasury and inflating the federal budget deficit.

The Afghanistan estimate warns that additional American troops are urgently needed there and that Islamic extremists who enjoy safe haven in Pakistan pose a growing threat to the U.S.-backed government of Afghan Prime Minister Hamid Karzai.

The Iraq NIE is more cautious about the prospects for stability there than the Bush administration and either John McCain or Barack Obama have been, and it raises serious questions about whether the U.S. will be able to redeploy a significant number of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan anytime soon.

Together, the three NIEs suggest that without significant and swift progress on all three fronts — which they suggest is uncertain at best — the U.S. could find itself facing a growing threat from al Qaida and other Islamic extremist groups, said one of the officials.

About the only good news in the Pakistan NIE is that it's "relatively sanguine" about the prospects of a Pakistani nuclear weapon, materials or knowledge falling into the hands of terrorists, said one official.

However, the draft NIE paints a grim picture of the situation in the impoverished, nuclear-armed country of 160 million, according to the U.S. officials who spoke to McClatchy.

The estimate says that the Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying.

However, according to the officials, the draft also finds that the Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the Islamists in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the U.S. that began under Pervez Musharraf, the U.S.-backed former president, after the 9/11 attacks.

Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently, stoked by stepped-up cross-border U.S. missile strikes and at least one commando raid on suspected terrorist targets in the FATA that reportedly have resulted in civilian deaths.

The Pakistani military, which has lost hundreds of troops to battles and suicide bombings, is waging offensives against Islamist guerrillas in the Bajaur tribal agency and Swat, a picturesque region of the North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan. U.S. officials said insurgent attacks on Pakistani security forces provoked the Pakistani army operations.

The Pakistan general staff also remains concerned about what it considers an ongoing threat to its eastern border from its traditional foe, India, the draft NIE finds, according to the U.S. officials.

For these reasons, they said, the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, wants the new civilian coalition government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to provide the military with political cover by blessing a major anti-insurgency crackdown.

However, the ruling coalition, in which President Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the late prime minister Benazir Bhutto, holds the real authority, has been preoccupied by other matters, according to the draft NIE.

These include efforts to consolidate its power after winning a struggle that prompted its main rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, to leave the ruling coalition.

Moreover, widespread anti-U.S. anger has left the coalition deeply divided over whether to unleash a major military assault on the Islamists, the U.S. officials said.

The government is also facing an accelerating economic crisis that includes food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency, the NIE warns.

The Pakistani public is clamoring for relief as the crisis pushes millions more into poverty, giving insurgent groups more opportunities to recruit young Pakistanis.

(Warren P. Strobel and Nancy A. Youssef contributed to this article.)

QUOTE:

This whole bullshit is nothing more then a oldest dream of CIA & its strategical partners (and dreams never comes true). But these bastards are now trying hard by spreading such stories to create uncertainities and make their every efforts to hamor Pakistani economy with the help of their agents (the black sheeps of Pakistan). There bed intentions are exposed clearly to us, as we are well awared that, they also speed up their clandestine activities with collaboration of India Spies ( as its recently proved by arresting Indians & American agents in FATA) to exploite issues their to engage Pak-forces against tribes to creat serious differences and anti-Pakistan regieme in FATA. This is an high alert threat to our intigrity and sovergnity, Our political forces including rulling elites should realise that our nation have great courage to face any challenge and have potential to overcome, as such Government take serious action, take nation into confidance (in real sense- not just as formality) on top priority basis to have clear stand on it, as its is dire need never ever before. God Bless Us -Long Live Pakistan Inshallah

 

[su-47]

This whole bullshit is nothing more then a oldest dream of CIA & its strategical partners (and dreams never comes true). But these bastards are now trying hard by spreading such stories to create uncertainities and make their every efforts to hamor Pakistani economy with the help of their agents (the black sheeps of Pakistan). There bed intentions are exposed clearly to us, as we are well awared that, they also speed up their clandestine activities with collaboration of India Spies ( as its recently proved by arresting Indians & American agents in FATA) to exploite issues their to engage Pak-forces against tribes to creat serious differences and anti-Pakistan regieme in FATA. This is an high alert threat to our intigrity and sovergnity, Our political forces including rulling elites should realise that our nation have great courage to face any challenge and have potential to overcome, as such Government take serious action, take nation into confidance (in real sense- not just as formality) on top priority basis to have clear stand on it, as its is dire need never ever before. God Bless Us -Long Live Pakistan Inshallah

pkpatriotic, pleaase dont push away these type of reports as propoganda or CIA's dream. analyse the situation carefully and look around. remember, its said that when Rome was burning, Nero was playing his fiddle. dont be caught in a situation like that.

whenever you see reports like this, be cautious, even if u dont believe them, for they atleast serve the purpose of showing the enemy's intentions.

 

[p2prada]

for him, Taliban becomes a good option and this struggles between forces again pushes the economy plumbing southwards .

LOL. Whats Taliban, the modern day Robin Hood. They protect pak and afghan civilians from taxes.ROFL

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

A growing al Qaida-backed insurgency, combined with the Pakistani army's reluctance to launch an all-out crackdown, political infighting and energy and food shortages are plunging America's key ally in the war on terror deeper into turmoil and violence, says a soon-to-be completed U.S. intelligence assessment.

I disagree with the political infighting assessment - given the traditional state of Pakistani politics, the current relationship between the power players (leaving out fringe groups such as the MMA and Imran Khan) is actually pretty good.

Usually the PML-N and PPP would already be threatening long marches and demanding the Government resign.

The assessment of the food and energy shortage is alarmist, but it is true that there is a problem (also, by this standard Afghanistan has no chance in hell of stabilizing, if the West thinks the situation in Pakistan is bad). The foreign exchange reserves situation is probably the most serious (though still not as bad as back in 1998 -99), since it is affecting investor confidence and driving the rupee devaluation and inflation. Getting a lid on that would probably start to address some major issues. Pulling in massive FDI into the power and infrastructure sector might be one way to kill two birds with one stone...