Here you missed my point....With this base we have the capability to strike....Now you are assuming that India will not be allowed to attack...Your reasoning is logical but again is not fool-proof....It will depend on what goodies we can give in exchange...Can russian influence help us...there are lot of possibilities...you never know we might already have inked a deal muchj away from public glare....That's why i said in the begining we all are speculating ...however the minimum we can say is that IAF has a base there which theratically can be used against you....
You have the capacity to attack the Western part of Pakistan with or without the Farkhor base. And the question of whether Dushanbe will allow Farkhor to carry our offensive operations against Pakistan is a very serious one to consider for them - almost all of Tajikistan is within range of Pakistan, why would they enter a war in which they have nothing to gain, and a lot to lose?
You cannot merely dismiss this question. As I said, allowing a base is one thing, allowing it to be used to attack another nation in an act that gives you little gain and a lot of pain is another.
Now we are talking....I never argued on how effective this attack(if at all possible) can be.......However here what we are assuming is that this base will work in solo...whereas that would/might not be the case....Let me give you a very hypothetical scenario....
We have this so-called awacs killer missile....If we want to shoot down your awacs with our MKI's we need to enter into your Air-Space if MKI's are coming from your eatern border... Since you yourself has said that Pak is a geographically shallow nation you will place them a little close to your western border with this assumption that there is no similar potential danger waiting on your western border.......Now if we place couple of MKI's with same missile into this base just imagine your already shallow depth will become even more shallow....Now you will need to think twice of what should be the best possible place to keep your awacs so that they can be kept operational as well as safe....
Now will this ever happen ..i do not know but just show us the possible headaches this base can cause....
The only way the AEW&C's will be kept 'safe' is with ground based air-defence and air support from the PAF, otherwise Pakistan's AEW&C's are easily within range of the IAF even if located on the Western extremes of Pakistan. Since location of the AEW&C's does not matter, and the AEW&C's have almost 360 degree coverage (along with the ground based radar coverage etc.), IAF jets from Farkhor cannot exactly just 'sneak up' on them from the West. They will likely be detected and will be engaged just as if they were coming from the East (which they would be if they were not stationed in Farkhor).
So in this scenario as well there is little to no advantage from the Farkhor base, if Dushanbe ever allows it to operate offensively that is.
Yes...and my point was such a base will be a diplomatic loss...I did not even venture into their military potential...I said however miniature they would be in nature they are still a threat....
A Pakistani base would be a threat because of the real potential of military attack from such a base and the associated potential of Bangladesh joining the war on the side of Pakistan. It would not be a threat just because it existed.
Yes you are right...and so is the case...However depends if we have the capacity to do anything about it??? If i have influence i will try my best to stop this oil flow......For example with American base in Saudi Arabia goes on to attack you(for soem reason) do you think they will allow a tanker of oil from there to reach Pakistan???Another example : Jordan gave you F-104's in 71 war...That was surely a good enough reason to strike Jordan....However there are certain things that you can/can't do...you have to live with it....B/W did you have this pact with Sri Lanka before the war???
Any nation would try and restrict supplies to an enemy during war, but India won't just be able to attack the Saudis or others because they are shipping oil to Pakistan - it is a non-offensive move. Carrying out attacks from bases located in another nation is an offensive move, and Tajikistan is likely not going to allow it given the little to no payoff they would receive from such a move. Afghanistan would be a different issue.
I am not aware of the details around the Sri Lankan pact on providing fuel supplies.
I gave one very hypothetical scenario....This base can do the job without even flying a single sortie...It will keep you guessing weather we will attack from here or not...This is the surprise i am talking about.....Regaring Dushambe becoming a target then it might be difficult....Your resources would be totally occupied fighting with Indians...You will not like to loose even a few to attack Dushambe which will strategically be of no value...Moreover remember Bombing Russian backyard might not be as easy as it sounds...
OK, you are making it sound like this is the medieval ages and the defending forces will have no clue as to where the enemy is showing up from until they come over the hill top ....
Given the technology available to Pakistan, IAF fighters from Farkhor will be detected, and likely engaged, long before they get to Pakistan. Pakistan being geographically shallow does not have to shift its resources to cater to this threat from the East, and therefore it is no additional burden for Pakistan in that sense. Additionally, it is just one base, and the IAF is not going to dedicate a large number of fighters there in case Dushanbe does not agree to let them fly or the base is bombed rendering those fighters useless, so in terms of a threat, it will be numerically small.
And on Dushanbe, we don't have to send fighters to bomb it ... that threat should be enough to ward off any desire on the Tajik governments part to get into a mess it gets no benefit out of.
As said you are entitled for your opinion....I have given some hypothetical scenario...See if it make any sense...By the way paying for a base which is practically of no use is bad decision....We indians are little smarter then that....Secondly having a base in Tajikh don't make us regional power by any stretch of Imagination....So let time pass by this base will show its true color...We are definitely smarter then what you are assuming us to be.....
I agree paying for a base that is of little use in war is a bad decision - it is a good question to ask the GoI as to how they justify it. I can see little military advantage from it.
It might make sense from a peacetime usage perspective however.
but this discussion is pretty futile i am sure that Tajikistan Military as well Civilian Leaders are not insane.
. The whole point of giving a fighter/ special forces base there is to allow the use of airspace. I don't know about Afghanistan but Tajikistan has this case.
