Is India's Tajikistan airbase a major threat in case of war?

[BSF]

Now if i remember correctly... Northern alliance wounded were brought (AIIMS and Army hospital) from that airbase on IL transporter aircraft's. I will get you a link.
This is just a blog link as you know such sensitive matters are not discussed with the media by RAW.

India had begun extending medical assistance to the guerrilla forces led by the legendary leader Ahmad Shah Massoud and as a consequence of this, one wing of the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) was completely cordoned off by South Block and it was there that all those Mujahideen wounded in battle while fighting the Soviets under Massoud's leadership received the urgent medical attention that they deserved. So impressed was the Northern Alliance by India's humanitarian assistance that this relationship, at first opportunity, got elevated to a higher level when, in the early 1990s after the breakup of the USSR, the Northern Alliance succeeded in securing Tajikistan's approval for an Indian Army-run field hospital to be established at Farkhor.

TRISHUL: Too Many Secrets....

Well they brought them through Tajikistan airbase.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Just take a look at the location of Indian airbase and then reassess whether the base is pure business. I will leave it to you to decide as it is no point proving this further.

Yes, the location of the airbase is precisely its Achilles heel in case of a war. You will barely be able to resupply it, and it will take one successful mission to put it out of commission.

Not to mention what one attack out of Farkhor would mean for Dushanbe after Farkhor is put out of commission, or perhaps even before.

Playing geo-political games by allowing basing rights to a nation is one thing, crossing the line into active participation and support for war against a third nation is quite another.

 

[deckingraj]

Yes, the location of the airbase is precisely its Achilles heel in case of a war. You will barely be able to resupply it, and it will take one successful mission to put it out of commission.

Not to mention what one attack out of Farkhor would mean for Dushanbe after Farkhor is put out of commission, or perhaps even before.

Playing geo-political games by allowing basing rights to a nation is one thing, crossing the line into active participation and support for war against a third nation is quite another.

You are absolutely right...However does that negate the topic in discussion??? Your arch rival managed to get an air-base in your neighbourhood...Whether they(read tazak) will allow us to use it in military terms or not whether we will be able to save it from PAF onslaught or not is a different discussion....Are you saying any similar PAF base in Nepal or may be BD will be ignored by India on similar grounds???

Also didn't Sri Lanka much to GOI dismay gave you refuelling rights in 71 war??? You never know what kinds of deal we will ink with them or might have...More important bombing background of Russia is a little bigger task then what it sound....However what this base can do cannot do is all speculation at best...So i wont indulge there...but looking at the scope of the discussion the way i see is we have a base there and surely a diplomatic loss for Pakistan..

 

[karan.1970]

Yes, the location of the airbase is precisely its Achilles heel in case of a war. You will barely be able to resupply it, and it will take one successful mission to put it out of commission.

Not to mention what one attack out of Farkhor would mean for Dushanbe after Farkhor is put out of commission, or perhaps even before.

Playing geo-political games by allowing basing rights to a nation is one thing, crossing the line into active participation and support for war against a third nation is quite another.

I dont think that base will be used for any overt launch of operations into Pakistan. Its more of tying down some of Pakistan's attention and hoping that in the heat of battle Pakistan will make the mistake of a pre-emptive attack on that base...

 

[deckingraj]

I dont think that base will be used for any overt launch of operations into Pakistan. Its more of tying down some of Pakistan's attention and hoping that in the heat of battle Pakistan will make the mistake of a pre-emptive attack on that base...

As said i would not like to indulge in speculation but end of the day we have a military base there....the way i see it, it is more then just a bait for the enemy......In short all options are there....It is we who will decide how to use it and for what purpose....be it a bait, be it a covert operation..be it full-fledge attack or worst case nothing at all...One thing is for sure enemy will keep guessing...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You are absolutely right...However does that negate the topic in discussion??? Your arch rival managed to get an air-base in your neighbourhood...Whether they(read tazak) will allow us to use it in military terms or not whether we will be able to save it from PAF onslaught or not is a different discussion....Are you saying any similar PAF base in Nepal or may be BD will be ignored by India on similar grounds???

As a practical matter, yes, the airbase in Nepal at least would be ignored, since the logistical challenges facing such an airbase limit its advantage during an actual war, nor do I think the GoP would be interested in such a base given the challenges faced in the past in maintain a military in East Pakistan.

Bangladesh would be a slightly different case, since it is a much larger nation than either Nepal or Tajikistan, with its own disputes and tensions with India, and under the right government could in fact be drawn into a war with India on the side of Pakistan. Tajikistan does not fit the example of Bangladesh.

Also didn't Sri Lanka much to GOI dismay gave you refuelling rights in 71 war??? You never know what kinds of deal we will ink with them or might have...More important bombing background of Russia is a little bigger task then what it sound....However what this base can do cannot do is all speculation at best...So i wont indulge there...but looking at the scope of the discussion the way i see is we have a base there and surely a diplomatic loss for Pakistan..

Yes, then the importance of Sri Lanka was that it assisted in maintaining contacts with the Eastern Wing, and provided precisely that logistical support that was necessary for maintaining contact with EP. Tajikistan is not connected to India by land or sea (nor for that matter is it connected to Pakistan) and it is not Indian territory. The Indian airbase there will be largely useless in case of war, and poses almost no military threat to Pakistan.

 

[deckingraj]

Again you are right....However you are missing some key points...

As a practical matter, yes, the airbase in Nepal at least would be ignored, since the logistical challenges facing such an airbase limit its advantage during an actual war, nor do I think the GoP would be interested in such a base given the challenges faced in the past in maintain a military in East Pakistan.

Question is not whether this base is useful or not...Question is Pakistan managing to get a base in our neighbouring area simply implying that Nepal is a rival country and we have no influence on them.....Giving you a military base is not a bilateral agreement because it is compromising my national security however miniature the threat would be...So no it will not be ignored....

Bangladesh would be a slightly different case, since it is a much larger nation than either Nepal or Tajikistan, with its own disputes and tensions with India, and under the right government could in fact be drawn into a war with India on the side of Pakistan. Tajikistan does not fit the example of Bangladesh.

....Larger in what sense??? Military wise or size wise?? Are you saying that the nation who is hosting the base has to get into war herself as well??? Anyways here are implying that unless and until Tajik has any conflict with Pak India will not be able to use this base....this is what i am debating against because you never know the kind of deals that can be inked.... Had there some Pak influece over Tajik/ great relations then i can understand....otherwise sorry i don't agree....

Yes, then the importance of Sri Lanka was that it assisted in maintaining contacts with the Eastern Wing, and provided precisely that logistical support that was necessary for maintaining contact with EP.

In short much to India's dismay they went ahead and helped Pak in a war against a much bigger nation even though they did not have any conflict with us...Same can be true for Tajik....

Tajikistan is not connected to India by land or sea (nor for that matter is it connected to Pakistan) and it is not Indian territory. The Indian airbase there will be largely useless in case of war, and poses almost no military threat to Pakist

Yes you are right about connection part...However calling it useless would be a under statement....With this base we have a capability to strike your western border...We will be able to use it or not is a different ball game...but we will keep you guessing to say the least....

 

[karan.1970]

As a practical matter, yes, the airbase in Nepal at least would be ignored, since the logistical challenges facing such an airbase limit its advantage during an actual war, nor do I think the GoP would be interested in such a base given the challenges faced in the past in maintain a military in East Pakistan.

But China could help you maintain that base.. Dont you think. However, that base would only be of marginal importance, since India military presence on that side is fairly strong given the Chinese connection. Hence another military base on the eastern border will not mean much for India

Bangladesh would be a slightly different case, since it is a much larger nation than either Nepal or Tajikistan, with its own disputes and tensions with India, and under the right government could in fact be drawn into a war with India on the side of Pakistan. Tajikistan does not fit the example of Bangladesh.

I dont think that is a possibility. The fate of East Pakistan is still too fresh from 1971. And despite there being no Mukti Bahini, there is a large part of the population of Bangladesh that considers India as a good friend. Any war against India may well turn into a civil war within BD (assisted by India)

Yes, then the importance of Sri Lanka was that it assisted in maintaining contacts with the Eastern Wing, and provided precisely that logistical support that was necessary for maintaining contact with EP. Tajikistan is not connected to India by land or sea (nor for that matter is it connected to Pakistan) and it is not Indian territory. The Indian airbase there will be largely useless in case of war, and poses almost no military threat to Pakistan.

I dont think Pakistani military planners will be as optimistic in discounting presence of Military aircraft at their backdoor..

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Question is not whether this base is useful or not...Question is Pakistan managing to get a base in our neighbouring area simply implying that Nepal is a rival country and we have no influence on them.....Giving you a military base is not a bilateral agreement because it is compromising my national security however miniature the threat would be...So no it will not be ignored....

Well of course the question is about a base will have a tangible impact in case of war or not, or will impact security considerations in some other manner. Beyond that 'getting concerned' over such issues is merely an example of too big an ego or 'waving at windmills'.

A base in Tajikistan does not compromise Pakistan's national security. Tajikistan has no disputes with Pakistan, it does not share a border with Pakistan and it is not a nation or military power large enough to threaten Pakistan.

....Larger in what sense??? Military wise or size wise?? Are you saying that the nation who is hosting the base has to get into war herself as well??? Anyways here are implying that unless and until Tajik has any conflict with Pak India will not be able to use this base....this is what i am debating against because you never know the kind of deals that can be inked.... Had there some Pak influece over Tajik/ great relations then i can understand....otherwise sorry i don't agree....

I am pointing out that the disputes Bangladesh has with India, its large size and shared border with India lend itself to being a national security threat to India were Bangladesh to allow Pakistan basing rights. Bangladesh is best compared to Afghanistan and potential Indian bases in Afghanistan - now that would be something Pakistan would consider a threat to national security.

In short much to India's dismay they went ahead and helped Pak in a war against a much bigger nation even though they did not have any conflict with us...Same can be true for Tajik....

I would put it as facilitating Pakistan in maintaining contact with its Eastern Wing - there was no offensive support provided to Pakistan, Pakistani forces were not based out of Sri Lanka and they did not carry out attacks from there. Attacks from Tajik soil from an Indian airbase would be a case of Tajikistan directly aiding India in a war against Pakistan.

Yes you are right about connection part...However calling it useless would be a under statement....With this base we have a capability to strike your western border...We will be able to use it or not is a different ball game...but we will keep you guessing to say the least....

India has as much a chance of striking the Western border from India as it does from Tajikistan - Western Pakistan is not out of range of Indian fighters flying out of India to begin with. In both cases you will have to deal with Pakistani air defence and the PAF, and in case of flying from Tajikistan (over Afghan airspace with no support), Indian fighters will have to fight a very lonely war indeed.

The thing is, IMO, India has set up a base out of ego to project itself as a 'regional power with force projection through bases' without really having the ability to supply such a base during war and keep it operational, and without any actual need for such a base, given it can reach Pakistan's Western borders in any case from India.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

But China could help you maintain that base.. Dont you think. However, that base would only be of marginal importance, since India military presence on that side is fairly strong given the Chinese connection. Hence another military base on the eastern border will not mean much for India

That would drag China into a war, and depending on another nation for military supplies during war is not a good idea as history has shown. A base in Nepal has no attraction for Pakistan.

I dont think that is a possibility. The fate of East Pakistan is still too fresh from 1971. And despite there being no Mukti Bahini, there is a large part of the population of Bangladesh that considers India as a good friend. Any war against India may well turn into a civil war within BD (assisted by India)

Technically everything being discussed here is hypothetical, I am merely pointing out that a base in Bangladesh under the right type of government would have significant concerns for India, and in any war with India under this scenario, the GoB would likely tap into emotions over disputes with India to justify military action and rally the people. Civil war will be a lot harder to instigate given control of the country lies with Bangladeshis.

I dont think Pakistani military planners will be as optimistic in discounting presence of Military aircraft at their backdoor..

I am not discounting it - just pointing out that it will be of limited use, if any, for the reasons I have mentioned, and therefore is not a major national security concern.

But the potential threat will obviously be catered to, which will demand a minimal allocation of resources.

 

[deckingraj]

Well of course the question is about a base will have a tangible impact in case of war or not, or will impact security considerations in some other manner. Beyond that 'getting concerned' over such issues is merely an example of too big an ego or 'waving at windmills'.

Sir would you mind taking a step back and then share your thoughts....With a base you get the capability to attack....Now would you be able to use it or not is the next question....So you may be right that you don't need to worry about this base(Though your ex COAS and Persident thought otherwise) however why we managed to get a base there is the first question....That is nothing but a diplomatic loss for Pakistan...Don't you think???

A base in Tajikistan does not compromise Pakistan's national security. Tajikistan has no disputes with Pakistan, it does not share a border with Pakistan and it is not a nation or military power large enough to threaten Pakistan.

Yes you are right....However with India already on war with you last thing you would want is any surprise from eastern border....With this base there is a possibility....Seems like you are not convinced so i will leave it there...In fact is is good for IAF if Pak choose to ignore this base for good

I am pointing out that the disputes Bangladesh has with India, its large size and shared border with India lend itself to being a national security threat to India were Bangladesh to allow Pakistan basing rights. Bangladesh is best compared to Afghanistan and potential Indian bases in Afghanistan - now that would be something Pakistan would consider a threat to national security.

Basing rights in BD??? and may i ask how will you manage to send your supplies???? How si this equation different from Tajakistan??? Anyways if you manage to get basing rights in BD then it would be a bightmare for New Delhi and big diplomatic loss....Even though your supply routes will have to pass through sea routes which we can easily close yet it would be a cause to concern.....

I would put it as facilitating Pakistan in maintaining contact with its Eastern Wing - there was no offensive support provided to Pakistan, Pakistani forces were not based out of Sri Lanka and they did not carry out attacks from there. Attacks from Tajik soil from an Indian airbase would be a case of Tajikistan directly aiding India in a war against Pakistan.

Agno is this actually you who wrote this??? There was no offensive support??? Help in maintaining your supply lines is no offensive support???

India has as much a chance of striking the Western border from India as it does from Tajikistan - Western Pakistan is not out of range of Indian fighters flying out of India to begin with. In both cases you will have to deal with Pakistani air defence and the PAF, and in case of flying from Tajikistan (over Afghan airspace with no support), Indian fighters will have to fight a very lonely war indeed.

As said how we will use this base is going to be a guess work....When will that base come into picture is the key.....with IAF already on your western border mounting lot of pressure, this base might not be that lonely as it sounds like....

The thing is, IMO, India has set up a base out of ego to project itself as a 'regional power with force projection through bases' without really having the ability to supply such a base during war and keep it operational, and without any actual need for such a base, given it can reach Pakistan's Western borders in any case from India.

You are entitled for your opinion...IMO we did the logical thing....We now have an operational base...We can always add the capacity/capability now(who knows already have added)...Capability without a base would have been of no use....

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Sir would you mind taking a step back and then share your thoughts....With a base you get the capability to attack....Now would you be able to use it or not is the next question....So you may be right that you don't need to worry about this base(Though your ex COAS and Persident thought otherwise) however why we managed to get a base there is the first question....That is nothing but a diplomatic loss for Pakistan...Don't you think???

You only get a capability to attack another nation if the nation hosting you allows you to attack. Surely you don't think that Dushanbe has not been conveyed the repercussions of allowing such a move to proceed? And if Dushanbe understands that its own cities shall be targets, I doubt India will be allowed to attack Pakistan from there, given Tajikistan has no disputes or direct enmity with Pakistan.

Yes you are right....However with India already on war with you last thing you would want is any surprise from eastern border....With this base there is a possibility....Seems like you are not convinced so i will leave it there...In fact is is good for IAF if Pak choose to ignore this base for good

We know India has a base there. We know the potential of an Indian attack from there. We also have a very strong net-centric air-warning and defence system, which is continually being bolstered with additional assets such as the Chinese and Swedish AEW&C's. We likely have HUMINT on the ground in Tajikistan monitoring the airbases, and all of these elements will be on high alert during any time of tension. Pakistan will not have to shift any of its assets to a different location to cater to the Farkhor base threat since we are a geographically shallow nation.

So where is the 'surprise' going to come from?

Basing rights in BD??? and may i ask how will you manage to send your supplies???? How si this equation different from Tajakistan??? Anyways if you manage to get basing rights in BD then it would be a bightmare for New Delhi and big diplomatic loss....Even though your supply routes will have to pass through sea routes which we can easily close yet it would be a cause to concern.....

I did not raise the issue of bases in Bangladesh, you did. I am merely pointing out a base in Bangladesh would be a far bigger concern for India than a base in Nepal.

Agno is this actually you who wrote this??? There was no offensive support??? Help in maintaining your supply lines is no offensive support???

By that argument you could make the Gulf States providing oil to both India and Pakistan 'enemies'. Providing fuel and other non-offensive supplies for a nation maintaining a link with its other wing is nothing offensive. Now, were a PN or PAF base operating out of Sri Lanka, as is the case with Tajikistan, that would be a different issue.

As said how we will use this base is going to be a guess work....When will that base come into picture is the key.....with IAF already on your western border mounting lot of pressure, this base might not be that lonely as it sounds like....

It is no guess work - it is an IAF base in a nation that shares no border with Pakistan - any offensive action is almost certain to be that of India fighter jets flying out of Farkhor to attack Pakistan. They will fly over Afghanistan and into Pakistani territory with no Indian Air Defence to provide cover. Pakistan is likely to detect such a move and engage the IAF over Afghanistan itself. If engaged over Pakistan you have to also contend with Pakistani air defence. And that is if Dushanbe allows the IAF to fly out of Farkhor and let itself become a target.

You are entitled for your opinion...IMO we did the logical thing....We now have an operational base...We can always add the capacity/capability now(who knows already have added)...Capability without a base would have been of no use....

I fail to see what advantage you have gained. Pakistan does not need to shift any resources out of their 'India centric' locations to cater to the Farkhor threat. Any IAF fighters that fly out of Farkhor would in any case be deployed out of India, so the PAF would have to face them anyway.

It is an ego trip more than anything else.

---------- Post added at 02:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:43 PM ----------

Lesser probability does not read no probability and a PM being wrong in the past does not equate to all PM's being wrong at all times...

The where is his evidence? When those in the past atleast tried to provide evidence, and this one does not even do that, it places his claims on a rung even lower than Bush&Blair on Iraq.

 

[deckingraj]

Since now we are circling around the same topic i will conclude by replying once and you can reciporcate

You only get a capability to attack another nation if the nation hosting you allows you to attack. Surely you don't think that Dushanbe has not been conveyed the repercussions of allowing such a move to proceed? And if Dushanbe understands that its own cities shall be targets, I doubt India will be allowed to attack Pakistan from there, given Tajikistan has no disputes or direct enmity with Pakistan.

Here you missed my point....With this base we have the capability to strike....Now you are assuming that India will not be allowed to attack...Your reasoning is logical but again is not fool-proof....It will depend on what goodies we can give in exchange...Can russian influence help us...there are lot of possibilities...you never know we might already have inked a deal muchj away from public glare....That's why i said in the begining we all are speculating ...however the minimum we can say is that IAF has a base there which theratically can be used against you....

We know India has a base there. We know the potential of an Indian attack from there. We also have a very strong net-centric air-warning and defence system, which is continually being bolstered with additional assets such as the Chinese and Swedish AEW&C's. We likely have HUMINT on the ground in Tajikistan monitoring the airbases, and all of these elements will be on high alert during any time of tension. Pakistan will not have to shift any of its assets to a different location to cater to the Farkhor base threat since we are a geographically shallow nation.

So where is the 'surprise' going to come from?

Now we are talking....I never argued on how effective this attack(if at all possible) can be.......However here what we are assuming is that this base will work in solo...whereas that would/might not be the case....Let me give you a very hypothetical scenario....

We have this so-called awacs killer missile....If we want to shoot down your awacs with our MKI's we need to enter into your Air-Space if MKI's are coming from your eatern border... Since you yourself has said that Pak is a geographically shallow nation you will place them a little close to your western border with this assumption that there is no similar potential danger waiting on your western border.......Now if we place couple of MKI's with same missile into this base just imagine your already shallow depth will become even more shallow....Now you will need to think twice of what should be the best possible place to keep your awacs so that they can be kept operational as well as safe....


Now will this ever happen ..i do not know but just show us the possible headaches this base can cause....

I did not raise the issue of bases in Bangladesh, you did. I am merely pointing out a base in Bangladesh would be a far bigger concern for India than a base in Nepal.

Yes...and my point was such a base will be a diplomatic loss...I did not even venture into their military potential...I said however miniature they would be in nature they are still a threat....

By that argument you could make the Gulf States providing oil to both India and Pakistan 'enemies'. Providing fuel and other non-offensive supplies for a nation maintaining a link with its other wing is nothing offensive. Now, were a PN or PAF base operating out of Sri Lanka, as is the case with Tajikistan, that would be a different issue.

Yes you are right...and so is the case...However depends if we have the capacity to do anything about it??? If i have influence i will try my best to stop this oil flow......For example with American base in Saudi Arabia goes on to attack you(for soem reason) do you think they will allow a tanker of oil from there to reach Pakistan???Another example : Jordan gave you F-104's in 71 war...That was surely a good enough reason to strike Jordan....However there are certain things that you can/can't do...you have to live with it....B/W did you have this pact with Sri Lanka before the war???

It is no guess work - it is an IAF base in a nation that shares no border with Pakistan - any offensive action is almost certain to be that of India fighter jets flying out of Farkhor to attack Pakistan. They will fly over Afghanistan and into Pakistani territory with no Indian Air Defence to provide cover. Pakistan is likely to detect such a move and engage the IAF over Afghanistan itself. If engaged over Pakistan you have to also contend with Pakistani air defence. And that is if Dushanbe allows the IAF to fly out of Farkhor and let itself become a target.

I gave one very hypothetical scenario....This base can do the job without even flying a single sortie...It will keep you guessing weather we will attack from here or not...This is the surprise i am talking about.....Regaring Dushambe becoming a target then it might be difficult....Your resources would be totally occupied fighting with Indians...You will not like to loose even a few to attack Dushambe which will strategically be of no value...Moreover remember Bombing Russian backyard might not be as easy as it sounds...

I fail to see what advantage you have gained. Pakistan does not need to shift any resources out of their 'India centric' locations to cater to the Farkhor threat. Any IAF fighters that fly out of Farkhor would in any case be deployed out of India, so the PAF would have to face them anyway.

It is an ego trip more than anything else.

As said you are entitled for your opinion....I have given some hypothetical scenario...See if it make any sense...By the way paying for a base which is practically of no use is bad decision....We indians are little smarter then that....Secondly having a base in Tajikh don't make us regional power by any stretch of Imagination....So let time pass by this base will show its true color...We are definitely smarter then what you are assuming us to be.....

 

[Patriot]

I am quite surprised about Comments regarding Tajikistan base.International Law States that the defender is allowed to attack enemy bases anywhere (Just as Japan attacked Pear Habour) or US attacked Germany Foreign Bases during WW2.Tajikistan does not have direct border with Pakistan so PAkistan will have to use baburs and ballisitc missile to raise that base but no nation would allow it's territory to be used like that unless it agrees with the war policy and in the end it does not matter much we also also have Western Air Command guess what now the Western Air Command have gotten new F16s Block 52 and i am sure a AWAC Would be deployed their for F16 Block 52.Pakistan can also deploy refuelers over Baluchistan along with JF-17's and fly caps in case of war there 24/7.

 

[karan.1970]

^Interesting.. So you will attack 2 countries (Tzaks and Afghanistan) at the same time while fighting with India??? I mean your Baburs etc will have to overfly Afghanistan to hit the Base..