Is food self-sufficiency an outdated idea?

[Nomenclature]

I was reading an article on rise in China's food imports and implications for the self-sufficiency policy.

China is importing corn and rice. Is the country?s food self-sufficiency being reassessed?

While all summer long special attention focused on soaring wheat prices following Moscow’s decision to ban exports, another equally significant event yet remained in the shadow. Throughout the year, China has imported considerable quantities of corn and rice––two food products traditionally at the heart of Beijing’s food self-sufficiency strategy.

In fact, corn imports are reaching unseen levels during the past 15 years––since the poor crops of 1994/95. Arrangements are being made for China to import one million tons of American corn this year––the largest purchase of the past 14 years. Rice imports are also larger than usual with massive purchases from Vietnam. Even if it was not under the spotlight, this increase in exports nonetheless attracted the attention of some market players. Is China’s self-sufficiency threatened? Most experts do not think so, since Beijing’s food self-sufficiency remains at about a 99 percent level.

China’s recent importations are in fact resulting from several factors: The rampant urbanization that destroys entire sections of farmland, the rapid surge in domestic demand for corn, as well as the lack of water resources and more than mediocre farming technologies.

Clearly, Beijing must assess these changes and adapt its agricultural policy, so that such massive importations only represent a temporary adjustment phenomenon. Yet considering the questions raised, the Chinese supply base remains an eminently strategic issue, not only for the Chinese government that treats it as a national security issue, but also for the stability of international markets, given the size of the Chinese population.

I wonder if food self-sufficiency has already lost much of its strategic meanings when we're no longer self-sufficient in energy and raw materials? Is a massive grain storage program and $2.5 trillion reserve not enough to maintain a stable food supply?

It seems to me without the national strategic concerns China would be much better off to grow less but higher quality food. Look at Japan with about 70% of its food imported. They have much higher population density than China yet has less environmental problems, in part because they don't need to abuse pesticides and fertilizers to remain self-sufficient.

 

[no_name]

That may be true but I don't think the Japanese likes to live on existential edge either. Wasn't alot of what they did in the past just to find more rooms?

Famine have traditionally been the catalyst for revolutions and regime overthrows in China, so I can understand why they are careful.

 

[StingRoy]

The article you have quoted highlights some of the issues that the western nations have been facing. With rapid industrialization, everyone from the rural areas move to more urbanized areas in order to live their dreams leaving behind their traditional means of survival.

In the western countries, most of them have been able to move to more efficient farming techniques which results in more per hectare yield. But given the capitalist nature of farming the farmers only go for the crops which are economically viable... hence there is a widening gap between the different crops. This is evident from the amount of corn that US produces, yet so less vegetable produce.

I would hope the Chinese govt should change policies to prevent the mass migration from its rural areas and to keep its farming roots. This is also a topic of hot debate in India to maintain a balance between urbanization and its rural policies.

 

[ao333]

Japan is an American ally, with Canada and the United States being two of the largest overproducers in the world. China on the other hand doesn't even trust Russia. What more is there to be said?

 

[below_freezing]

food self sufficiency is key. people will not drop dead nor revolt even if all oil is blockaded but they will if even 1% of the population cannot eat.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Whoever is suggesting an end to food-sufficiency deserves to be shot. What are we going to eat if the suppliers embargo us?

 

[Vassnti]

food self sufficiency is key. people will not drop dead nor revolt even if all oil is blockaded but they will if even 1% of the population cannot eat.

Though no oil can mean no food in thelong term i agree with your general point.

To answer the food sufficiency problem though you need to answer the water sufficiency problem. Farm yeilds per hectare are increasing in China but the key to increased productivity is often irrigation. With enough water you can grow pretty much all you need after all farming at its most basic is just water, dirt, sunshine and manure.

The question i would ask is not is not can China grow enough food to be self-sufficient but does it have the clean water to do so?

Why falling supplies? Farm yields per hectare have been stagnating in many countries for a while now. The green revolution that caused yields to soar 20 years ago may be faltering. But the immediate trigger, according to most analysts, has been droughts, particularly in Australia, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, but also in some other major suppliers, like Ukraine. Australia’s wheat exports were 60 percent down last year; its rice exports were 90 percent down.

Why rising demand? China has received most of the blame here — its growing wealth is certainly raising demand, especially as richer citizens eat more meat. But China traditionally has always fed itself — what’s different now is that the world’s most populous country is no longer able to produce all its own food.

A few years ago, the American agronomist and environmentalist Lester Brown wrote a book called Who Will Feed China?: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet. It predicted just this. China can no longer feed itself largely because demand is rising sharply at a time when every last drop of water in the north of the country, its major breadbasket, is already taken. The Yellow River, which drains most of the region, now rarely reaches the sea, except for the short monsoon season.

Water Scarcity: The Real Food Crisis by Fred Pearce: Yale Environment 360

 

[ThatDamnGood]

It seems to me without the national strategic concerns China would be much better off to grow less but higher quality food. Look at Japan with about 70% of its food imported. They have much higher population density than China yet has less environmental problems, in part because they don't need to abuse pesticides and fertilizers to remain self-sufficient.

No, you can have money but supply may not be adequate. As there are rare earths, there could be a "rare grains". Must think like the Japanese and stockpile.

 

[Chogy]

Food sufficiency is a strategic necessity, IMO. That doesn't mean you can't import food in peacetime, but a nation should have the ability (if necessary) to feed its own population.

Recent history has demonstrated this. WW1 and WW2, Great Britain teetered on the edge of disaster with regards to food. People were planting Victory Gardens in tiny slices of land. Even Church landscaping was converted to food. Imports from Canada and the U.S. kept GB going, but if zero food had been imported in those wars, I think they'd have still managed.

Now look at Japan in 1945. Hunger and starvation were rampant. Not only was commercial shipping ruthlessly hunted by submarine, domestic infrastructure was under a severe strain from Allied attacks, limiting the ability to move the food around the country.

In an extreme war, commercial shipping will be very limited, and if a nation can only grow 25% of its food, with no ability to expand production, the population will be terribly weakened in a matter of a couple of months.