Daring move from IRGC.
Respect where due.
I am pretty sure and so the Americans (at least since Millennium Challenge 2002) that US navy has no chance near Iranian coasts. the only question today is how much that near is extended!
What you have build is to be respected and taken seriously but it would be a mistake to be in hubris like Iraq was.
Your judgement seems to be frozen in time. MC 2002 was a one-time simulation aimed to provide directions to USN to build capabilities to counter threat situations that could be presented by Iran near its coasts. MC 2002 achieved its purpose and USN addressed suggested shortcomings in subsequent years.
There were multiple simulations and live-fire events in which USN have hinted different assets and tactics to overcome Iranian assets and tactics over the course of years.
For perspective:
1. Airborne assets such as A-10 Warthog(s), AC-130W gunship(s), AH-1Z Viper gunship(s), jet fighters armed with cluster munitions, and/or loitering munitions can be used to engage IRGC boats from afar. These assets can be made to take-off from aircraft carriers and/or airbases across the Middle East.
Iran cannot risk attacking every airbase in the Middle East. When host countries will realize that USA is willing to disarm Iran, they will be willing to respond to potential Iranian strikes as well.
2. Big warships such as Arleigh Burke class are armed with an assortment of weapon systems and EW capabilities to intercept and/or defeat airborne threats, sea-skimming threats, and even ASBM.
Iran can deploy SAM systems near its coasts but this brings us to following:
3. Big warships such as Arleigh Burke class are equipped with long-range LACM to soften Iranian coastal defenses from afar.
American LACM have delivered results in every battlespace including in Syria where even Russian defenses could not stop them.
4. Jet fighters and bombers can also be used to soften Iranian coastal defenses and establish air superiority over Iranian airspace if necessary. American jet fighters and bombers are very difficult to engage due to being incredibly well-armed and technologically advanced on average. Expect these to be armed with standoff munitions to engage targets on the surface from afar.
Above all:
5. USN have CEC to establish excellent situational awareness and fight effectively.
Most of the above was not considered in MC 2002.
Yes, Iran is dangerous to fight near its coasts but USA can fight Iran on its terms. They have no need to park their assets very close to Iran while attacking it. This is important to understand.
And now that USA have discarded NTI with Russia, American ground forces are in the process of acquiring standoff munitions as well. These will include endo- atmospheric hypersonics. Much will change in coming years in fact.
Iran is a regional power but USA prepares itself for bigger threats. Whatever you will build will not be enough.
I hope people of peninsula Manage a Revolution of their own and help us kick Anglo bastards out of this region. Why should we invite an outside ideology to enter backyard of Islam? We have already had enough of western combination with brainless Arabs and Zionists which gave birth to ISIS. Why bring an other unknown entity to our holy land? Arabs have already proved us this harsh reality that anyone having money and weapons can buy Arabs by millions and abuse the religious differences of Middle eastern people paving the way for colonizing Islamic lands that are full of natural resources. At best Chinese can kick USA out of SCS and stay friendly with us.
Asian countries are split on geopolitical and ideological grounds. This dynamic makes it easy for distant powers like USA to exploit when the time comes.
Arabs are not the only ones to blame though. Iran is trying to do the right thing from its perspective but it is contributing to regional rivalries as well. This is a matter of perspective and realization.
China might not be willing to get involved in the Middle East to the point of picking sides. Time will tell.
Americans would have done it a Long time ago, if they actually could.
They need platforms to launch such a missile attack on Iran. Iranian cruise missiles can fly 2000 KM in sea skimming mode plus 2000+ KM anti ship ballistic missiles. Add thousands of small boats carrying anti ship cruise missiles to it. A great A2/AD capability which keeps USN at bay.
USN is too strong in the oceans but not in Persian Gulf.
They can't jam hundreds of missiles/drones in a short span of time.
But why would USA attack Iran just to prove a point? A war is not declared and launched on a country for bragging rights.
Soumar? How many in your inventory and how many launchers in your inventory? What is the kill chain in place to make sure that Soumar can score kills around 2000 KM mark? There is no guarantee that it will get through defenses of Arleigh Burke, for instance.
Thousands of boats equipped with ASCM? No proof of this. And how are these ASCM guided from boats in the first place?
Perhaps they can because USA have extensive amount of homework in the EW regime. There are things which will be apparent in conventional warfare of-course. For perspective, advances in American military hardware and doctrines in the 1980s were underestimated in theory and also in the simulations of the time but exceeded expectations in the Persian Gulf War.
No amount of A2/AD capability is sufficient for USN and USAF in combination. This was apparent in Iraq in 1991, Yugoslavia in 1999, and in Syria recently. Iran have build impressive defenses but see my pointers above.
Iran is dangerous near its coasts but USA can fight Iran on its terms. They have no need to park their assets very close to Iran while attacking it. This is important to understand.
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