Iran's Options

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yes, but not necessarily in our favor. Iran must establish nuclear deterrence at some point, but whether it should be publicized or not is a delicate matter in my opinion.

Your primary threat is the US.

Having the adequate nuclear deterrence will keep them at bay. You don't need to match them in parity like China and Russia are trying now.

This strategy was successful when China was weak half century ago, and NK recently has also succeeded with this strategy.

At least you can see that the US has now more war option on Iran than NK despite Iran is much more powerful than NK.

Having the nuclear deterrence against the US won't necessarily make your 100% safe, but at least you can avoid the imminent fate like Iraq and Libya.

 

[Arian]

Your primary threat is the US.

Having the adequate nuclear deterrence will keep them at bay. You don't need to match them in parity like China and Russia are trying now.

This strategy was successful when China was weak half century ago, and NK recently has also succeeded with this strategy.

At least you can see that the US has now more war option on Iran than NK despite Iran is much more powerful than NK.

Having the nuclear deterrence against the US won't necessarily make your 100% safe, but at least you can avoid the imminent fate like Iraq and Libya.

Russia got a seat in the UNSC. Nowadays you don't get a seat in the UNSC if you go nuclear. India didn't get a seat in the UNSC. South Africa didn't. Pakistan didn't.

Things have changed. Living in a nuclear Middle East where all major players are nuclear capable can be a nightmare. It will eventually happen. And I am all for it. But right now, I think that even if Iran has nuclear weapons, it is rational to keep it secret.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Don't mean to brown nose but Chinese industrial capability especially in ship construction is just amazing. I don't have any doubt in China's future war fighting ability whatsoever.

China will have an equal if not greater than response to any future U.S. Naval deployment in and around China. So I'm not worried about how China will fare in the long term.

Iran possibly joining with China and Pakistan as well as Russia in some sort of a military apparatus would be a god-send in all honesty. In turn Iran would get TOT and much needed jets to make up for its poor Air force.

So there is a possibility that Iran can come out of this looking real good but it will take decades or at least a decade to get this all rolling given the U.S.-Iran don't start bombing each other.

The economic decoupling between the US and China will be beneficial for Iran.

More economic decoupling means that the pro-US faction within the Chinese government will also suffer a political starvation and soon be driven into the complete extinction.

Therefore, China won't hesitate to send more investment to Iran and sell more weapons.

Russia got a seat in the UNSC. Nowadays you don't get a seat in the UNSC if you go nuclear. India didn't get a seat in the UNSC. South Africa didn't. Pakistan didn't.

Things have changed. Living in a nuclear Middle East where all major players are nuclear capable can be a nightmare. It will eventually happen. And I am all for it. But right now, I think that even if Iran has nuclear weapons, it is rational to keep it secret.

Objectively, the P5 political structure also needs to be reformed.

But now acquiring the nuclear weapon is for the sake of your own country's survival first, and it has more national imperative than the geopolitical game.

 

[Blue In Green]

The economic decoupling between the US and China will be beneficial for Iran.

More economic decoupling means that the pro-US faction within the Chinese government will also suffer a political starvation and soon be driven into the complete extinction.

Therefore, China won't hesitate to send more investment to Iran and sell more weapons.



Objectively, the P5 political structure also needs to be reformed.

But now acquiring the nuclear weapon is for the sake of your own country's survival first, and it has more national imperative than the geopolitical game.

Agreed wholeheartedly, Nuclear weapons will substantially help Iran secure its defense and reestablish deterrence against the U.S.

 

[Arian]

Objectively, the P5 political structure also needs to be reformed.

But now acquiring the nuclear weapon is for the sake of your own country's survival first, and it has more national imperative than the geopolitical game.

You're right. But the chance of structural reforms in the UNCS is extremely low.

We can have nukes and keep it secret. What's wrong with that? It can add even a surprise factor to any future wars. They start the war, and then few hours after that, BOOM! Our first nuclear test. That'll totally ruin all of their plans. No?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Agreed wholeheartedly, Nuclear weapons will substantially help Iran secure its defense and reestablish deterrence agains the U.S.

Try to focus on the asymmetrical warfare with the US when you don't have enough strength to reach parity.

For nuclear, Iran needs to focus on nuclear capable ICBMs that is mobile and could be shielded by the thousand kilometers underground tunnel.

For conventional, Iran needs to focus on the long range ASBM that could push the US supercarriers as far away as possible.

 

[Blue In Green]

Try to focus on the asymmetrical warfare with the US when you don't have enough strength to reach parity.

For nuclear, Iran needs to focus on nuclear capable ICBMs that is mobile and could be shielded by the thousand kilometers underground tunnel.

For conventional, Iran needs to focus on the long range ASBM that could push the US supercarriers as far away as possible.

the situation has changed, changed for the worse I'm afraid.

Iran will response and the response will be devasting, but America will respond even greater practically inviting open warfare at that point.

We are essentially in the opening stages of a region wide conflict undoubtedly.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

the situation has changed, changed for the worse I'm afraid.

Iran will response and the response will be devasting, but America will respond even greater practically inviting open warfare at that point.

We are essentially in the opening stages of a region wide conflict undoubtedly.

Just look at Trump's threat back in 2017 against NK, when Kim has declared that NK can launch nuclear capable ICBM, the threat has been turned into bluffing.

Iran needs to pull the same trick in order to keep the enemy at bay.

Otherwise, the war will come close after you.

 

[Blue In Green]

Just look at Trump's threat back in 2017 against NK, when Kim has declared that NK can launch nuclear capable ICBM, the threat has been turned into bluffing.

Iran needs to pull the same trick in order to keep the enemy at bay.

Otherwise, the war will come close after you.

Fair enough, I want to be inclined to believe that but then again Trump went ahead and killed the No.2 guy in all of Iran.

It would show that there is something more than just bluster and bravado to what Trump is saying.

My gut feeling is just different this time around...

 

[loanranger]

I would imagine the Iranians leadership is fully aware of whatever fallout will ensue from just Iranian retaliation.

Iran can get in good damage against U.S. assets within a short time frame and keep up the firing for quite a while if it gets that bad though. People seem to just focus on U.S. power whilst marginalizing Iranian capabilities which are quite varied.

I don't underestimate Iran. I just find it frustrating that Iran won't be damaging US mainland while the US will be taking on Iran proper.

 

[Blue In Green]

I don't underestimate Iran. I just find it frustrating that Iran won't be damaging US mainland while the US will be taking on Iran proper.

There are talks about Iran conducting hit operations using sleeper cells in the United States to target diplomats and military leaders which is a possibility but you are right. America is quite literally separated from the wider world by two oceans yet it sees fit to exert its unjust will to whomever it wants.

Iran will take the blows and deal them out, the decision is out of our hands and has already been made.

 

[homar]

The best response Iran can take is a strategic one, in which Iran strengthens its position at the cost of the US and it’s puppets in the region.

First and foremost, Iran must take the last nuclear step. This should be obvious. You are attacked by two nuclear powers, you must acquire a nuclear deterrent at any cost if you wish to remain independent and sovereign.

Most likely Iran already possesses the means to deliver a warhead to the continental United States. But, even if it doesn’t, it can develop one quickly and still has the immediate ability to hit Israel and Europe.

Finally, this is as good an opportunity as any to forcibly remove the US from Iraq and Syria. Actions are already being taken on the first. Iran can consolidate its position in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria and can continue to supply the Houthis with ever more sophisticated weaponry in order to keep the pressure on the Saudis.

 

[Blue In Green]

The best response Iran can take is a strategic one, in which Iran strengthens its position at the cost of the US and it’s puppets in the region.

First and foremost, Iran must take the last nuclear step. This should be obvious. You are attacked by two nuclear powers, you must acquire a nuclear deterrent at any cost if you wish to remain independent and sovereign.

Most likely Iran already possesses the means to deliver a warhead to the continental United States. But, even if it doesn’t, it can develop one quickly and still has the immediate ability to hit Israel and Europe.

Finally, this is as good an opportunity as any to forcibly remove the US from Iraq and Syria. Actions are already being taken on the first. Iran can consolidate its position in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria and can continue to supply the Houthis with ever more sophisticated weaponry in order to keep the pressure on the Saudis.

The JCPOA is dead, Iran will leave it in due time.

 

[Salmanov]

Yesterday the US committed a crime so heinous, so stupid, that it is only right that we discuss the appropriate response. Usually I am dismissive of calls for or fear of war - but this time, direct military conflict between Iran and the US is on the cards, and even rarer so; the cards are in the hands of Iran.

Link to the full article: https://irangeomil.blogspot.com/2020/01/irans-options.html

It’s simple burn the entire Middle East on their heads

Do not make a retaliation since you will be bullied by America if you do like that. That action can only increase Trump popularity and if he win he will bully you more. Better improve relation with other Muslim countries since your reputation is going ugly since you help Assad Dictator to crush popular upraising there. You are alone can not win against America.

Better focus on developing economy, good governance, technology, and defense industry. Become a good actor in Yemen and pressure Houti to give up their military action and except political solution.

Non sense Qaddafi did that and you know what happened to him these dogs only answer for North Korea and Soviet Union one China

Saddam lost the war because he didn’t have proxies unlike Iran which can make the Middle East vietnams and not a single Vietnam

 

[Salmanov]

Great article!
Personally I think Iran should apply strategic patience on this one. Revenge doesn’t need to happens instantaneously. Just think how much Iran has advanced in 20 years. Now add 20 more years. Iran will only need to “kindly ask” the Americans to piss out if the region, and they will! The level of military hardware Iran has in 20 years will be insane compared to today. However if we lose our temper then all infrastructure will be lost and frankly our chances to overcome the US is not great right now. I’m not saying that there is no chance, but the odds are not great and frankly the death tolls will make the Iran Iraq war seem like a side note in our history books.

Ps. Oon figure ke kozashti, soal akharie ham bayad diamond shape bashe, mesle soal avvalie. Are/na mosbat/manfi manoolan diamond shape estefadeh mikonand.

But what if the zio neocon scums start war before Iran gets stronger?! I say go for nuclear weapons