Iran's Nuclear Triggers and Timetable

[shazlion]

February 24, 2015

This report estimates how soon Iran could fuel a nuclear weapon. With its thousands of gas centrifuges, Iran now has the ability to enrich uranium to a grade suitable for use in nuclear reactors or to a higher grade suitable for use in nuclear warheads. The data below, which are based on reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, describe Iran’s uranium stockpile, its centrifuges, and the rate at which its nuclear capacity is growing

Highlights:

• By using the approximately 9,000 first generation centrifuges operating at its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran could theoretically produce enough weapon-grade uranium to fuel a single nuclear warhead in about 1.7 months.

• Iran's more advanced IR-2m centrifuges, about 1,000 of which are installed at Natanz, would allow Iran to produce weapon-grade uranium more quickly.

• Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium is now sufficient, after further enrichment, to fuel approximately seven nuclear warheads.

• Because Russia has a ten-year contract to fuel Iran’s only power reactor at Bushehr, Iran has no present need for enriched uranium to generate civilian nuclear energy.

• Iran could fuel approximately 25 first generation implosion bombs if it had the ability to enrich the uranium needed to supply the Bushehr reactor annually

Bomb potential of Iran's low-enriched uranium

• Total amount of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enriched to approximately 3.5 percent U-235 produced as of February 2015:
  14,175 kg

• Amount of this material ready for further enrichment (i.e., stored in gaseous form) as of February 2015:
  7,953 kg

• Amount theoretically needed to produce a bomb's worth of weapon-grade uranium metal:
  1,053 kg

• Number of first generation implosion bombs this 7,953 kilograms could fuel, if further enriched:
  7

• Time needed to convert this uranium to one bomb's worth of finished uranium metal enriched to 90 percent U-235:
  3 - 12 months [f]

• Date by which Iran's uranium stockpile probably was sufficient to fuel one first generation implosion bomb, if further enriched:
  February 2009 [g]

• Approximate number of first generation IR-1 centrifuges being fed with UF6 at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, as of the last reported visit by IAEA inspectors:
  9,000 [h]

• Number of months theoretically needed for these 9,000 centrifuges operating at their present capacity to produce enough enriched uranium for one bomb:
  1.7 [i]