SalarHaqq
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if the people are ignorant , yes if they are educated , no
Education per se is not an impediment to generating sufficient offspring.
Also the question was whether raising two and more children is affordable. Yes it is. Nations with significantly lower living standards can afford it, so will Iranians.
nonsense about extinction , as long as there is positive population growth there is no such thing ,
When fertility rate falls below 2,1 it means generational replacement is no longer taking place. In other terms, population growth is doomed to turn negative no matter what.
So yes, Iran is very much at risk of civilization extinction with a fertility rate inferior to 2,1.
corruption , social injustice and poverty are far more dangerous for the existence of the country.
No they definitely aren't. According to empirical data, demographic slump in the contemporary era has been irreversible. There's not a single example of a country managing to sustainably fix the issue. Not a single one. Every government that tried, failed.
The jury's out on Hungary at the moment, the upcoming five to fifteen years will show whether or not their policy will bear lasting fruit. But if it does, then that will make them the very first ones worldwide to achieve such a feat in the contemporary era.
This paper contains all readers need to know about this particular aspect:
Can China Reverse Its Population Decline? Just Ask Sweden.
Wealthy countries have been trying to boost their birthrates for decades. The results have been pretty similar.
www.nytimes.com
So either way, action must be taken in this area before it's too late.
Corruption, social injustice and poverty - none of these are irreversible. Demographic plunge however is, until someone finds a viable formula to neutralize it (other than through mass immigration, that is).
also don't forget that someone said if poverty enter from door the faith go out of the windows
Off topic.
the population is growing ,
Below threshold fertility may take some time to result in negative population growth, but the latter is guaranteed to set in unless compensated by mass immigration or by successful natalist policies.
if you fear about jobs and workforce then don't retire people at the age of 45
Generational replacement must be ensured first and foremost. That's the foundational condition. Without it, the entire economic system will be grappling with structural deficiencies.
its nonsense to talk about higher growth rate without solving , education , food security , job and ....problems
Not at all. There's wide consensus among economists and demographers that demographic decline leads to economic slowdown and crisis.
Healthy demographic growth is ensured by a fertility rate comprised between 2,1 and 2,5. Other things being equal, such a fertility rate will not put any particular strain on education, food security or availability of jobs.
Fertility rate of 2,1 = population remains constant over time - assuming low infant mortality, unchanged overall death rate, no significant variation in life expectancy and zero net migration.
Fertility rate of 1,74 (the figure for Iran in 2021-2022) = population is ageing and will start regressing in absolute numbers anytime.
Pay attention to this brief explanatory note, it explains it well:
Replacement level fertility and future population growth - PubMed
'Replacement level fertility' is a technical term which seems almost self-explanatory. However there are some important qualifications which make it a more difficult concept than might be supposed. Also, the relationship between replacement level fertility and zero population growth is...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
we already have problem providing water for our population and you guys calling fr more people
we already have problem providing enough job for people and you ask to increase the population faster than this.
Iran's population will start declining in a couple of years if fertility is not given a boost. That's how demographic dynamics work.
If nothing is done to reverse the trend, in the short to mid term it will spell economic disaster. When there's an excess of elderly as compared to young citizens, research and development, innovation go out the window. The funding of pensions becomes a massive issue. The workforce shrinks, production tends to drop. And so on, and so forth.
There's really no point arguing here, since the experience of developed countries affected by demographic regression is crystal clear. They resorted to mass immigration in order to alleviate the heavy economic consequences.
our constitution state that education till the end of high school must be free for all , do you knew how many people have access to that free education.
Their numbers are diminishing with each passing year.
also you forget one thing , where you want to put these people ? in Teharan , Tabriz , Mashhad, Shiraz or Isfahan . you think the people who born and raised in those cities will go to sarab for example.
I have been in the small cities and the situation there is ...., there is no jobs there , the services are non existence.
With the current fertility rate Iran's population is bound to experience negative growth in a couple of years from now. By then this evolution will have become fully irremediable in practice. This in addition to an increase of the population's median age and further narrowing of the age pyramid's basis.
For generational replacement to be possible, Iran's fertility rate needs to be stabilized at above 2,1.
If small cities grow, they will attract investment and economic activity in those locations will intensify.
wonder why always people from europe and north america must come and talk about raising the population in Iran . why you guys won't come back and help raise the population,.... in small cities and villages
The Supreme Leader, who is neither from Europe nor from America, repeatedly rang the alarm bell. His warnings are stark and unequivocal on this matter.
Furthermore demography and economics are universal disciplines. What transpires from studies conducted in these fields is that a florishing economy requires generational replacement and that demographic ageing is a dead end.
Iran must improve her fertility rate to between 2,1 and 2,5 now or she will face a drastic economic crisis down the line, on top of the threat of civilizational extinction.
This is not a matter of opinion or perspective, it's a process evidenced by scientific research and corroborated by scores of readily observable cases.
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