Iranian Chill Thread

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715846056917774534

The Resistance is correctly nipping at their heels. No ‘invasion’ yet. Even if it comes it will be disastrous to Zionia and the POWs which very possibly will be depicted as a victory by the mighty child killers. Like today. Zionia IMO is checkmated whether it admits it or not.

 

[HGV]

I hope you’re not silent. You yourself are the best evidence of a traitor. Likes of you have come and gone like گوز شتر adrift in the anti-Iranian wind. I encourage you to keep ‘criticizing’ son—and drift in that malodorous breeze to your little heart’s desire. Us real Iranians and our ‘hezbollahi’ friends will be here physically and in spirit forever.

Something smells around here.

everyone who disagrees with you is a traitor and not a real iranian bla bla

get a new script

 

[jauk]

everyone who disagrees with you is a traitor and not a real iranian bla bla

get a new script

No. Cope.

 

[tsunset]

Multiple questions:

- What is the ballistic missile arsenal of Syria? F-110 and scuds?
- Do Iran really have AD units inside Syria? If yes using Iranian SAMs?
- What would happen if an Israeli fighter jet or gunships gets downed in the Golan Heights or northern occupied lands

- Is Israel ready to sustain a multifront war against Hezbollah + Syria and other groups? What is known is that Lebanon cannot endure a war in its current economic and whole situation
- Could a mass-exodus happen in Israel?

 

[Stryker1982]

This is problem with Middle East mentality. There is nothing to “show off” and 13 lives have already been lost (more counting today) firing these anti tank missile. As @Hack-Hook once said, usually these require teams of 2-3. And a drone or helicopter with IR can pick them up rather quickly even in dense foliage of south Lebanon plus the heat trail of the missile stays for a period of time.

This has nothing to do with "showing off" or "Middle east mentality". Promise you that.

This is all about managing escalation, and control of clashes and managing resources. Many people in the forum are too impatient at the moment, they want Hezbollah to just go all out from the very outset, and show all their hidden capabilities, give time for their enemy to react to them and adjust before the actual war even started..... The people who run Hezbollah are capable and experienced managers. They know what they are doing, and the deaths of <20 men over 2 week time period is not going to change the calculus. In 2006, they lost <300 men in 4 weeks. These are tolerable losses if they are achieving their goals, that is to degrade Israeli ISR at the border which is working.

When the decision to escalate has been initiated, you have degraded ISR all along the border, then they will show their cards. The zelzals and the fateh's will come out. It is too early for now.

Almas (Iranian spike) is a luxury weapon. Kornet cost $25K to export by Russia so it likely cost Iran <$10K to make maybe even $5K. Iranian spike and LR is likely much more, short range is not ideal as it’s range is 2.5KM (about one mile) where as Iranian Kornet is at least 5KM depending on the model. So Iranian Spike LR is not costing less than $25K. India signed a deal with Israel for $525M for 8300 missiles costing about $65K per missile and that was for short range.

Where as Sadid is optically guided with 8KM range and will be fitted with foldable wings so it can likely be launched out of most large mortar tubes. Add in a pair of cheap VR goggles and the operator can guide missiles directly on top of Targets even without direct LOS.

If HZ was using Sadid I guarantee you the casualties would be 3-4x more on Israeli side as many of the targets have obstructed LOS, so unless a dumbass soldier is standing out in the open in contrast to terrain it’s harder to get a group kill.
Hell even Iranian switchblades would be a better fit for this type of warfare

Fair point, I forgot about the range of Almas which is a severely limiting factor. Granted, we all believe this time the resistance will try to take and hold territory, they can use something more mobile like an Almas to carry on their backs which would be a major force multiplier weapon to their infantry units at closer range combat. Whose tactics change at that point, You do not need a dedicated Dehlaviye team, an offensive squad will have Almas carried with them.

As I said, the axis needs to update their strategies. Cost maybe be more and I know this fascination with martyrdom is ingrained in their minds (one of the negative aspects of Martyr Solemani was this comfort and belief in his battle plans), but the usage of the latest weaponary must be used. These weapons help Iranian military industrial complex much more than old Iranian remodeled Kornet design. That is 2010 acceptable level tech.

My impression about this and my point about not showing their hands early on, is partly related to the assumption that the availability of both Sadid and Almas are no where near the numbers that Kornet/Dehlaviye would be (which could easily number in the 1000s of HZ). I think they would be saving them and using them later to avoid rapid depletion of inventory, like if they were in possession of them for their other plans (offensive operations). For now, sniping with ATGMs at range I think is acceptable.

Besides isn't Sadid way to heavy to carry? You need to mount it on a quad bike which may not be feasible tactically at this current moment when they are doing infiltration operations.

 

[khansaheeb]

You guys better stop chilling as American JDAMs are coming.

 

[jauk]

This has nothing to do with "showing off" or "Middle east mentality". Promise you that.

This is all about managing escalation, and control of clashes and managing resources. Many people in the forum are too impatient at the moment, they want Hezbollah to just go all out from the very outset, and show all their hidden capabilities, give time for their enemy to react to them and adjust before the actual war even started..... The people who run Hezbollah are capable and experienced managers. They know what they are doing, and the deaths of <20 men over 2 week time period is not going to change the calculus. In 2006, they lost <300 men in 4 weeks. These are tolerable losses if they are achieving their goals, that is to degrade Israeli ISR at the border which is working.

When the decision to escalate has been initiated, you have degraded ISR all along the border, then they will show their cards. The zelzals and the fateh's will come out. It is too early for now.

Fair point, I forgot about the range of Almas which is a severely limiting factor. Granted, we all believe this time the resistance will try to take and hold territory, they can use something more mobile like an Almas to carry on their backs which would be a major force multiplier weapon to their infantry units at closer range combat. Whose tactics change at that point, You do not need a dedicated Dehlaviye team, an offensive squad will have Almas carried with them.

My impression about this and my point about not showing their hands early on, is partly related to the assumption that the availability of both Sadid and Almas are no where near the numbers that Kornet/Dehlaviye would be (which could easily number in the 1000s of HZ). I think they would be saving them and using them later to avoid rapid depletion of inventory, like if they were in possession of them for their other plans (offensive operations). For now, sniping with ATGMs at range I think is acceptable.

Besides isn't Sadid way to heavy to carry? You need to mount it on a quad bike which may not be feasible tactically at this current moment when they are doing infiltration operations.

Correct! That said the opponent is powerful and immoral so The Resistance by very definition is being cautious.

We’re too used a tit for tat world. There is tot for tat but not within our brainwashed timelines.

In addition, Iranians are noblemen, and if we trust them we have to be nobly patient too. At the very least.

 

[tsunset]

You guys better stop chilling as American JDAMs are coming.

Where, on random hospitals?

 

[Stryker1982]

Multiple questions:

- What is the ballistic missile arsenal of Syria? F-110 and scuds?

Yes, possibly Zelzals as well.

- Do Iran really have AD units inside Syria? If yes using Iranian SAMs?

No clue, if their would be, it would be something Majid, that can be easily concealed

- What would happen if an Israeli fighter jet or gunships gets downed in the Golan Heights or northern occupied lands

During wartime? Nothing new.

- Is Israel ready to sustain a multifront war against Hezbollah + Syria and other groups? What is known is that Lebanon cannot endure a war in its current economic and whole situation

Neither Leb or Israel can handle the damage they will both receive

- Could a mass-exodus happen in Israel?

If thier army is broken in Gaza

 

[TheImmortal]

When the decision to escalate has been initiated, you have degraded ISR all along the border, then they will show their cards. The zelzals and the fateh's will come out. It is too early for now.

Israel has access to its own spy satellites and NATO/US sats. Space ISR > anything ground based. Those towers are just easy targets for an ATGM crew with a high success rate rather than trying to find troops.

Fair point, I forgot about the range of Almas which is a severely limiting factor. Granted, we all believe this time the resistance will try to take and hold territory, they can use something more mobile like an Almas to carry on their backs which would be a major force multiplier weapon to their infantry units at closer range combat. Whose tactics change at that point, You do not need a dedicated Dehlaviye team, an offensive squad will have Almas carried with them.

Why do you keep saying Almas. Almas still needs LOS. No one cares about Almas. Almas wouldn’t do much better in this situation. The only positive to Almas is fire and forget so you have a 30 second head start vs a Kornet crew. Waste of money to use Almas on fixed targets or troops.

Sadie 365 is a stand off distance TV guided munition.

My impression about this and my point about not showing their hands early on, is partly related to the assumption that the availability of both Sadid and Almas are no where near the numbers that Kornet/Dehlaviye would be (which could easily number in the 1000s of HZ). I think they would be saving them and using them later to avoid rapid depletion of inventory, like if they were in possession of them for their other plans (offensive operations). For now, sniping with ATGMs at range I think is acceptable.

Iranian drone launched munitions have existed since 8+ years ago when S-129 used them to strike theorists in Syria. All these new generation ATGMs being converted to ground use came from air use (even Spike).

Besides isn't Sadid way to heavy to carry? You need to mount it on a quad bike which may not be feasible tactically at this current moment when they are doing infiltration operations.

It’s a stand off munition. You can launch it from 4 miles away without direct line of sight. Hell you can launch it from a rooftop or from a backyard. Iran mentioned they are going to add launchers to military vehicles so troops can launch them from their trucks/MRAPs/humvees.

You don’t need to go to the border area and sit and find a target. Thus it keeps ATGM crews further back and much safer. They can now virtually strike from 3 or 4x more area then using a LOS ATGM. This makes finding them much much more difficult.

That was my point.

 

[Stryker1982]

Israel has access to its own spy satellites and NATO/US sats. Space ISR > anything ground based. Those towers are just easy targets for an ATGM crew with a high success rate rather than trying to find troops.

They built more a dozen observation points to watch the border but to also collect SIGINT, ELINT in real time. Space based ISR will not replace the value of real time intelligence. Look at all the devices on those towers, not just cameras. This is very well rehearsed and trained for (they have old promotional videos where they target sites that look similar (shoot cameras with sniper rifles etc...). They need to take these out to set the stage for a future ground op. But you are right in the sense that Sadid would be most optimal for using on static targets like those. Maybe they don't have them, or have enough to use often to target those bases.

Why do you keep saying Almas. Almas still needs LOS. No one cares about Almas. Almas wouldn’t do much better in this situation. The only positive to Almas is fire and forget so you have a 30 second head start vs a Kornet crew. Waste of money to use Almas on fixed targets or troops.

Sadie 365 is a stand off distance TV guided munition.

I mention Almas because in the event of a ground op, they'd need a closer range weapon that can be carried by a squad to target Merkava's and other armor. A direct front hit with kornet may not be enough, they can benefit from a top attack system

 

[SalarHaqq]

They built more a dozen observation points to watch the border but to also collect SIGINT, ELINT in real time. Space based ISR will not replace the value of real time intelligence. Look at all the devices on those towers, not just cameras. This is very well rehearsed and trained for (they have old promotional videos where they target sites that look similar (shoot cameras with sniper rifles etc...). They need to take these out to set the stage for a future ground op. But you are right in the sense that Sadid would be most optimal for using on static targets like those. Maybe they don't have them, or have enough to use often to target those bases.

I mention Almas because in the event of a ground op, they'd need a closer range weapon that can be carried by a squad to target Merkava's and other armor. A direct front hit with kornet may not be enough, they can benefit from a top attack system

If the zionists don't manage to locate the specific ATGM team which fired a Sadid from enhanced distance, then they'll attack some other HezbAllah unit they can locate. Use of Sadid instead of Kornet wouldn't change anything to the number of martyrs given.

 

[Stryker1982]

If the zionists don't manage to locate the specific ATGM team which fired a Sadid from enhanced distance, then they'll attack some other HezbAllah unit they can locate. Use of Sadid instead of Kornet wouldn't change anything to the number of martyrs given.

That is true, they don't have to target that specific ATGM team if they can no longer find them.

 

[Flotilla]

Look at all the devices on those towers, not just cameras. This is very well rehearsed and trained for (they have old promotional videos where they target sites that look similar (shoot cameras with sniper rifles etc...)

Exactly it was my point.
Those antennas are for COMMINT and ELINT intelligence. With all that towers IDF occupy forces can detect exactly the point and even decipher any radio signal from a ground station, handheld radio comm (chinese commercials one are really cheap and used even in Ukraine war for both sides) and cellulars. They are blinding those just for something bigger. It is just a first phase.

 

[jauk]

Intentional leaks against Zionia by the US:

Biden and Aides Advise Israel to Avoid Widening War With Hezbollah Strike

U.S. officials learned that the Israeli defense minister and other military officials supported a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been cautious.

www.nytimes.com