Iranian Chill Thread

[aryobarzan]

Chahar- shanbeh-souri
One of the most Aryan and pagan tradition of Iranians..Jumping over a bonfire and singing on the last wednesday before Norouz.
Young people of "Azerbaijan Republic" celebrate this day as their Persian ancestors did for thousands of years..Hope to see them re-join the motherland of Iran one day soon

Meanwhile Iranians in towns and villages prepare to welcome the soon to arrive Norouz on March 21

"NUOUSTI" a Tradition in Iranian Azerbaijan where people sweep the water and jump over it (did not know anything about this one!)

جارو زدن آب، قیچی کردن آب، رها کردن کفش‌های کهنه در آب و سه بار از عرض رودخانه رد شدن از جمله کارهایی است که در مراسم «نو اوستی» اردبیل انجام می‌شود. مراسم سنتی «نو اوستی» یا همان «سو اوستی» به معنای پریدن از آب است که همه ساله با حضور پرشور مردم در محل پل هفت چشمه بر روی رود بالیقلی چای اردبیل برگزار می‌شود.‌
سیاری از شرکت‌کنندگان با این باور که در این روز حاجت‌ها و نیت‌ها برآورده می‌شود با در دست داشتن قیچی، جارو و کوزه سفالی در محل پل تاریخی یئدی‌گوز (هفت چشمه) اردبیل حاضر شده و دعاگویان، سه مرتبه عرض رودخانه بالیقلو (بالیخلی چای) را طی و سپس آب را جارو یا قیچی می‌کنند.
دختران جوان نیز در پایان این آئین، کوزه‌های سفالینی را که در آئین سال گذشته پر از آب کرده بودند می‌شکنند و با نیت حاکم شدن زلالی و روشنی، کوزه‌های جدید خود را از آب پر کرده و به خانه‌هایشان می‌برند.

 

[HGV]

Wonderful photos, wonderful heritage.

 

[Stryker1982]

lol

Imao

This Telegram channel is good by the way. Does a pretty decent job at reporting global news.

 

[Stryker1982]

Shamkhani is planning to have talks with UAE.

One of the reasons Shamkhani is in the role that he is, in part due to Arabic being his mother tongue, and his ability to have dialogue with Arab nations is much easier.

Although I am not sure about his views. Is he a "hawk" or more "diplomatic" with a more reserved approach. Any military actions even limited ones that we saw in Iraqi Kurdistan requires SNSC approval.

 

[tsunset]

Somehow it feels like Iran is getting played. The media is playing it like MBS and Saudi tricked the US all these years and are now moving towards China. But I doubt it…

I wonder if Israel, Saudi and other Arab states are working together to trick Iran. Azerbaijan as well. Iran has said if they try to cut off the border Iran has with Armenia, we will be forced to act militarily.

Am I paranoid? It feels like Azerbaijan might do that soon and force Iran to act. Then all the media would pin it on Iran rejecting peace. Arab countries and Israel would all look like the good guys according to the media they pump out. The only factor that makes me doubtful on my theory is China…

 

[LegionnairE]

Somehow it feels like Iran is getting played. The media is playing it like MBS and Saudi tricked the US all these years and are now moving towards China. But I doubt it…

I wonder if Israel, Saudi and other Arab states are working together to trick Iran. Azerbaijan as well. Iran has said if they try to cut off the border Iran has with Armenia, we will be forced to act militarily.

Am I paranoid? It feels like Azerbaijan might do that soon and force Iran to act. Then all the media would pin it on Iran rejecting peace. Arab countries and Israel would all look like the good guys according to the media they pump out. The only factor that makes me doubtful on my theory is China…

dumb theory, but you're right in questioning MBS' motives. What does he have to gain? Maybe he's just sick of Aramco getting hit by drones. But what will happen with Yemen?

These are important questions.

Is there going to be a ceasefire in Yemen?

 

[HGV]

Is there going to be a ceasefire in Yemen?

There already is.

 

[SalarHaqq]

It feels like Azerbaijan might do that soon and force Iran to act. Then all the media would pin it on Iran rejecting peace.

How does the Iran-Saudi deal relate to the situation between Iran and Azarbaijan? Such a plan would be unnecessarily convoluted without offering a real advantage to the enemy. If they intend to drag Iran into a conflict by having Baku march into the Zangezur corridor, they wouldn't gain much from directing the Saudis to reach some agreement with Iran beforehand.

---

Although I am not sure about his views.

Politically closer to the liberal factions i.e. reformists and moderates. Although I guess this has little impact on his current diplomatic activity alongside the Ra'isi administration.

After Akbari's execution (sentenced for spying on the UK regime's behalf) some weeks ago and considering that the latter used to be close to Shamkhani, there was some speculation that Shamkhani might see his role gradually downgraded the way Ali Larijani's was after his right-hand man was sentenced on corruption charges during Ra'isis tenure at the head of the Judiciary. This now seems less likely considering Shamkhani's role in the Iran-Saudi agreement.

 

[Arash1991]

On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has massively co-financed the unrest in Iran, but actually Saudi Arabia has no interest in liberal gay parties taking power in Iran. This would directly spill over into their culture. Then the behavior of the West during the World Cup comes to light. The West used this massively to export their own ideology and propaganda and to make the World Cup bad, even though these Arab countries are extremely important for Europe. Then Saudi Arabia cannot continue its "ignore Palestine" policy, they lose the moral support in the Islamic world. The war in Yemen, which they can't get out of without losing face, and the possible military conflict in the Persian Gulf with Iran, which would destroy their whole vision, are also other reasons. Then Saudi Arabia has lost all conflicts against Iran. Starting with the failed overthrow of Assad, attempt to take control in Iraq, failed war in Yemen, assassination of scholars like Nimr (massive impact on diplomatic relations with Iran) etc. Saudi Arabia has failed across the board for the last 10 years. The Saudis also want to become more independent from the West. The Saudis have already been aware that they are going the wrong way. They also want to align themselves with China because China will probably be the future and is already the largest export and import partner of Saudi Arabia. I believe that China has rather put the Saudis under pressure, especially China has years before the mega deal with Iran concluded (25 year deal). Iran, unlike Saudi Arabia, is also a strategic and reliable partner of China, also because of the Silk Road.

I think that this rapprochement is rather to be understood as an elegant and face-saving surrender of Saudi Arabia to Iran and not vice versa.

Also the fact that Saudi Arabia can invest in Iran is not a favor of the Saudis to Iran but rather a reparation. Saudi Arabia is changing its complete political direction with this deal. Alone that this deal does not please the Israelis and the Americans is already a sign.
Saudi Arabia does not want to be sacrificed as a pawn against Iran. And China has given the West a slap and expands its influence in the West Asia region and reduces the influence of the West.

Above all, Saudi Arabia will not export any more oil to the West in the foreseeable future, since the West wants to break away from it anyway. (Electric and renewable energies). In China, however, Saudi Arabia can now continue to make money.

 

[HGV]

Iran, unlike Saudi Arabia, is also a strategic and reliable partner of China, also because of the Silk Road.

Also the fact that Saudi Arabia can invest in Iran is not a favor of the Saudis to Iran but rather a reparation. Saudi Arabia is changing its complete political direction with this deal. Alone that this deal does not please the Israelis and the Americans is already a sign.

Above all, Saudi Arabia will not export any more oil to the West in the foreseeable future, since the West wants to break away from it anyway.

Very wrong on all three counts.

But Saudi Arabia promoting regime change in Iran is very stupid (fits with most of their policies). Imagine a pro-West nationalist regime in Iran that allies with the USA and recognises "Israel". Suddenly no one in the West will give a shit about Saudi Arabia since it will not be needed / have no leverage.

 

[Arash1991]

Very wrong on all three counts.

can you give reason?

 

[lydian fall]

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has massively co-financed the unrest in Iran, but actually Saudi Arabia has no interest in liberal gay parties taking power in Iran. This would directly spill over into their culture. Then the behavior of the West during the World Cup comes to light. The West used this massively to export their own ideology and propaganda and to make the World Cup bad, even though these Arab countries are extremely important for Europe. Then Saudi Arabia cannot continue its "ignore Palestine" policy, they lose the moral support in the Islamic world. The war in Yemen, which they can't get out of without losing face, and the possible military conflict in the Persian Gulf with Iran, which would destroy their whole vision, are also other reasons. Then Saudi Arabia has lost all conflicts against Iran. Starting with the failed overthrow of Assad, attempt to take control in Iraq, failed war in Yemen, assassination of scholars like Nimr (massive impact on diplomatic relations with Iran) etc. Saudi Arabia has failed across the board for the last 10 years. The Saudis also want to become more independent from the West. The Saudis have already been aware that they are going the wrong way. They also want to align themselves with China because China will probably be the future and is already the largest export and import partner of Saudi Arabia. I believe that China has rather put the Saudis under pressure, especially China has years before the mega deal with Iran concluded (25 year deal). Iran, unlike Saudi Arabia, is also a strategic and reliable partner of China, also because of the Silk Road.

I think that this rapprochement is rather to be understood as an elegant and face-saving surrender of Saudi Arabia to Iran and not vice versa.

Also the fact that Saudi Arabia can invest in Iran is not a favor of the Saudis to Iran but rather a reparation. Saudi Arabia is changing its complete political direction with this deal. Alone that this deal does not please the Israelis and the Americans is already a sign.
Saudi Arabia does not want to be sacrificed as a pawn against Iran. And China has given the West a slap and expands its influence in the West Asia region and reduces the influence of the West.

Above all, Saudi Arabia will not export any more oil to the West in the foreseeable future, since the West wants to break away from it anyway. (Electric and renewable energies). In China, however, Saudi Arabia can now continue to make money.

This agreement is much more complex then you realize and ties directly into China re-imagining WW3 and it takes into consideration something far beyond now regionally and globally which showchases China's intelligence in manouvering and planning.

The Chinese peace-pact between Saudi Arabia and Iran has shifted the stragetic map significiantly.

The Americans are the kings of allies and the plan was to sacrifice Iran for Israel, KSA, UAE, Egypt, Turkey and other regional allies. For the Americans outside of NATO their strongest alliance is the Sunni-bloc and they put alot of effort into them and because they are numerous in numbers if you add them on top of NATO it turns into like 80 countries coalition. If the Americans had delivered Iran meaning if they were to storm together Iran this would have only tightened their alliance further and enough to convince them to join them on a Chinese adventure in WW3 because at that point the Americans will have a significiantly large cannon fodder group on top of NATO and land corridors. The Chinese understood that a large coalition was building against Iran which could have potentially splid into china itself and Iran is tied to Russia and China can't leave Russia and they saw this major stragetic error and allies forming against Iran and in order to separate the allies the Chinese came up with the peace pact in order to divert this massive coalition forming against Iran and eventually and potentially one that could splid over to themselves at later date.

But now the Americans don't have anything to deliver to the regional states as they have mended ties. They have nothing to offer on the table to entice them. Hence why Israel's Ex-Premier minister Lapid said ''Our walls have been teared down'' Because the US and Israel wanted to use them as shield.

In reality Saudi Arabia was on the winner end of things by a landslide as Iran was surrounded and her non-state actor militias are to powerless and all of her allies basically are inside a burning house Syria split into 3 countries and in economical collapse and invaded by 3 powers US, Turkey and Russia. Iraq is in turmoil and under US still with PMU militias not being powerful enough to take out the US instilled gov't in Iraq. Yemen is beyond destroyed send back decades to maybe a century and lost 80% of territory including oil and everything in between. The instabilitiy was only targetted with Countries Iran had links with and it was not a coincidence and not the other way around nor Is Hezbollah powerful enough to take on the Lebanese gov't even countries that are assumed Iran to have influence it is only 2nd rate.. Main while Saudi allies grew stronger from day to day and richer.

But this is not what China was countering but it was the alliance forming against Iran headed By Nethanyu and Lapid that had them worried because it would have brought together NATO, Israel and the Sunni-bloc they would have been nearly indestructable hence China saved Iran and prevented such an alliance occuring which was the whole point of the peace-agreement.

These regional middling power states aren't chellengers for the world hegemony themselves but they are swing states and can swing the power balance to one of the 3 players (Russia/China and US) significiantly. The US has put alot of effort into grooming them in order to use them as cannon fodders at later date and the enticing price was suppose to be Iran on a plate but now they have lost that card for good.

 

[jauk]

This assumption is flawed.. The Saudis only funds in the Islah regime and the Transitional separatist and the giants brigade never funded in irrelevant elements inside Iran or KRG it would have been waste of money for them.

The Saudis aren't entering into this from any position of weakness. They have their Yemen and petro regions of Yemen.

Besides It is not Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq but rather Turkey, US and Russia occupied hence it is not a Saudi occupied arena. Everyone is okay with the current status-quo.

This agreement comes with disengagement agreement which is good for both sides and hosilities stops but the Saudis are not negotiating from any way of weakness.

It is not Saudi allies that are invaded but the other way around.

The Saudis mostly operate with gov't institutions and they will keep whatever they have currently.

It is not the Saudis who benefit mostly from this agreement but Iran and China mostly as the Saudis already have an axis and allies but this will benefit mostly Russia as Iran can fully focus on Ukraine

Cope.

 

[jauk]

Somehow it feels like Iran is getting played. The media is playing it like MBS and Saudi tricked the US all these years and are now moving towards China. But I doubt it…

I wonder if Israel, Saudi and other Arab states are working together to trick Iran. Azerbaijan as well. Iran has said if they try to cut off the border Iran has with Armenia, we will be forced to act militarily.

Am I paranoid? It feels like Azerbaijan might do that soon and force Iran to act. Then all the media would pin it on Iran rejecting peace. Arab countries and Israel would all look like the good guys according to the media they pump out. The only factor that makes me doubtful on my theory is China…

Oh stop.