Iranian Chill Thread

[Bahram Esfandiari]

Well dont let some people wish you lowback pain. Mr. Zarif have some serrious low back pain problem but that didnt stopped him to do his work.

Probably from sitting too much. God knows it wasn't from heavy lifting unless he was trying to pick up Lady Ashton!

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390249318788091906

Line is potato and onion in Turkey

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

 

[Sineva]

It looks like the friends of the MEK have decided to try and take their shot,interesting timing tho,isnt it?.
I think the israelis are literally sh!tting bricks at even the thought of a jcpoa revival,I think that they`re pulling out all the stops and calling in every favor to try and derail it.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/middleeast/top-stories/dozens-of-former-un-officials-call-for-inquiry-into-1988-iran-massacre/ar-BB1gmQjm
https://thehill.com/policy/international/middle-east-north-africa/551719-dozens-of-former-un-officials-human-rights

 

[Surenas]

Apparently the restoration of the JCPOA makes Israel so strategically vulnerable that it would've no other option than to attack Iran. At least that is what the pro-Israel crowd in Washington wants to convince Biden of:

The Countdown to an Israeli War With Iran Has Begun

If Biden returns to the Iran nuclear deal, don't be surprised if Israel takes matters into its own hands.

foreignpolicy.com

But that doesn't even come close to our most urgent problem. Seems like Iran is about to lose more than 50% of its territory:

 

[Stryker1982]

Yup, just like last time

Apparently the restoration of the JCPOA makes Israel so strategically vulnerable that it would've no other option than to attack Iran. At least that is what the pro-Israel crowd in Washington wants to convince Biden of:

Is that even so bad? Perhaps it allows the rest of the world to see what Iran can do to Israel.

Regardless, the Chief of Mossad went to Biden to show them of Iran's nuclear progress and the effects of the deal on their strategic interests. I can understand their point of view for the JCPOA. It certainly is in Israel's best interests to make sure it doesn't happen. Iran will be flushed with cash, and be allowed to continue centrifuge research among other nuclear related research, while reconnecting it to the rest of the world. More importantly, a reconciliation with Saudi Arabia is bad for Israel as well. The more they can get Arabs to fight Iran, the safer they will be. They want the Americans to change their demands on the new deal to keep their interests at heart, but the West seems to put Israel aside and focus on the bigger picture which leaves Israel alone. That's why he went there, and seems to have also traveled to Bahrain recently.

" Two months later, Kelman, the general in charge of the IDF’s Iran strategy, was asked in an interview if Israel has the ability to attack and completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program. He responded without hesitation: “The answer is yes. "

The real answer is no. They need the United States heavy bombers to strike Fordow. If they try to strike Natanz, they need to strike all forms of Iran's military apparatus to suppress a counter strike. Good luck with that. Does anyone think they do covert operations because they are strong? No, they do covertly what they cannot do overtly.

Israeli goals
Iran is isolated, stripped of cash, at war with it's neighbors, stripped of research capabilities, and made to destroy all advanced centrifuges.

 

[Surenas]

Is that even so bad? Perhaps it allows the rest of the world to see what Iran can do to Israel.

The point is that Israel threatening to attack Iran shouldn't (only) be seen in the wider competition/conflict between both sides. You have to understand that Israel feels extremely vulnerable/exposed at the moment. Their concerns have not been taken into account by the Biden administration (despite paying lip service to it) or the other global powers. It's only card left to play is the threat of being the spoiler to the party, through an unilateral attack, mainly to influence the Biden administration from paying attention to it.

You see, if Israel would ever attack Iran on its own, they know that domestic pressure within the US would eventually drag the Americans into the mess. Especially, as you've noted, Iran would do significantly damage to the Israeli home front. So when Israel is making all these threats, it is basically telling the US government that the JCPOA 2.0 doesn't necessarily give them the opportunity to withdraw forces from the region at the behest of their more urgent strategic interests - which is the main reason why Biden is so eager to restore it. It's intended to keep the Americans continue worried of their actions.

Regardless, the Chief of Mossad went to Biden to show them of Iran's nuclear progress and the effects of the deal on their strategic interests. I can understand their point of view for the JCPOA. It certainly is in Israel's best interests to make sure it doesn't happen. Iran will be flushed with cash, and be allowed to continue centrifuge research among other nuclear related research, while reconnecting it to the rest of the world. More importantly, a reconciliation with Saudi Arabia is bad for Israel as well. The more they can get Arabs to fight Iran, the safer they will be.

Israeli's goals
Iran is isolated, stripped of cash, at war with it's neighbors, stripped of research capabilities, and made to destroy all advanced centrifuges.

I agree. The strategic picture looks extremely bleak for Israel at the moment. Either the JCPOA provides Iran with the means to economically and militarily re-strengthen itself, or in its absence Iran is going to continue to advance its nuclear program up to the point of becoming a nuclear threshold state or an outright nuclear power. Both short-to medium prospects are detriment to Israeli interests, but it seems like they prefer Iran to be sanctioned to death (even if it manages to survive) than to see it getting its hands on billions of dollars which Iran could use to fortify and advance its regional footprint in order to bolster the encirclement of the miniscule Israeli state.

To speak clear: the impending strategic and almost biblical doom caused by Iran's expected come back, fuelled by the death of the largest and most wealthy pro-Israeli donor (Adelson); its recent branding of it being an apartheid state by the HRW; the International Criminal Court (ICC) launching war crime probes into Israeli practices; the likely end of the reign of Netanyahu; the US withdrawing its forces from the region and saying farewell to three decades of failed Middle Eastern adventures; the Arab states grudgingly accepting Iran's hegemony, etc...has made our Jewish friends extremely depressed and panicked. One could almost hear their cries of desperation from the other side of the world.

 

[Stryker1982]

To speak clear: the impending strategic and almost biblical doom caused by Iran's expected come back, fuelled by the death of the largest and most wealthy pro-Israeli donor (Adelson); its recent branding of it being an apartheid state by the HRW; the International Criminal Court (ICC) launching war crime probes into Israeli practices; the likely end of the reign of Netanyahu; the US withdrawing its forces from the region and saying farewell to three decades of failed Middle Eastern adventures; the Arab states grudgingly accepting Iran's hegemony, etc...has made our Jewish friends extremely depressed and panicked. One could almost hear their cries of desperation from the other side of the world.

Very well put.

In which case, Iran must be very cautious and aware about the looming threat. I certainly hope they are prepared for this, in my opinion likely event.

You see, if Israel would ever attack Iran on its own, they know that domestic pressure within the US would eventually drag the Americans into the mess. Especially, as you've noted, Iran would do significantly damage to the Israeli home front. So when Israel is making all these threats, it is basically telling the US government that the JCPOA 2.0 doesn't necessarily give them the opportunity to withdraw forces from the region at the behest of their more urgent strategic interests - which is the main reason why Biden is so eager to restore it. It's intended to keep the Americans continue worried of their actions.

This is something definitely, worth noting. I would at minimum assume support would be given in every available form, but it is not apparent the Biden admin would be kinetically involved. Something to be concerned about for sure.

 

[dani92]

Apparently the restoration of the JCPOA makes Israel so strategically vulnerable that it would've no other option than to attack Iran. At least that is what the pro-Israel crowd in Washington wants to convince Biden of:

The Countdown to an Israeli War With Iran Has Begun

If Biden returns to the Iran nuclear deal, don't be surprised if Israel takes matters into its own hands.

foreignpolicy.com

But that doesn't even come close to our most urgent problem. Seems like Iran is about to lose more than 50% of its territory:

You know it’s funny when these dogs claim a country yet they don’t know that the inhabitants are not even Azeris just like the Ahwaz is who claim even hormuzgan and busher as ahwazi how come people claim imaginary country yet they don’t know that map of that country and add areas that have nothing to do with true imaginary Ahwaz?!.

 

[Surenas]

Very well put.

In which case, Iran must be very cautious and aware about the looming threat. I certainly hope they are prepared for this, in my opinion likely event.

I cherish no illussion whatsoever that Iran is fully aware of the threat and has prepared accordingly. Its recent regional activities and statements by Iranian military officials all point out to this.

This is something definitely, worth noting. I would at minimum assume support would be given in every available form, but it is not apparent the Biden admin would be kinetically involved. Something to be concerned about for sure.

When images of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting Israeli cities and critical infrastructure go around the world, with millions of their citizens taking cover in underground shelters, you can bet that the entire American media, pro-Israeli lobby groups and allied politicians will al go in overdrive to hype up the American society to join the Israeli war effort.

 

[Surenas]

You know it’s funny when these dogs claim a country yet they don’t know that the inhabitants are not even Azeris just like the Ahwaz is who claim even hormuzgan and busher as ahwazi how come people claim imaginary country yet they don’t know that map of that country and add areas that have nothing to do with true imaginary Ahwaz?!.

These people can't think logically. They are so hyped up by nationalistic feelings that these kind of maps gives them meaning and a sense of purpose in life, even if deep down they know that it will never become reality.

 

[TheImmortal]

Apparently the restoration of the JCPOA makes Israel so strategically vulnerable that it would've no other option than to attack Iran. At least that is what the pro-Israel crowd in Washington wants to convince Biden of:

The Countdown to an Israeli War With Iran Has Begun

If Biden returns to the Iran nuclear deal, don't be surprised if Israel takes matters into its own hands.

foreignpolicy.com

But that doesn't even come close to our most urgent problem. Seems like Iran is about to lose more than 50% of its territory:

Iran’s nuclear program posses no threat to Israel. In fact many within Israeli destablishment believe the government has been focusing on Iran in order to avoid critical domestic issues.

Let’s be honest, even if Islam says nukes are allowed. The use of nuclear weapons especially on a holy city (Jerusalem) is beyond haram.

The Israelis don’t care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program they care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program leading to normalization of ties with the world which in turn would allow Iran’s economy and society to grow and in turn the conventional war machine would completely overrun Israeli and Arab armies combined.

Thus even if Iran tommorrow renounced its entire nuclear program and removed every single piece of equipment, Israel would still be lobby the west to include sanctions on Iran’s economy.

The goal is to keep Iran chained forever and the excuse of the day to justify those chains can change from nuclear to fusion to A.I to human rights to Ballistic missiles to space program to etc etc

So again much like Russia didn’t like JCPOA, Israel does not either because they are afraid of a normalized Iran integrated in the world economy jeopardizing their standing in the world.

lran has much more to offer the world than Russia and Israel combined.

 

[NightStrike]

When images of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting Israeli cities and critical infrastructure go around the world, with millions of their citizens taking cover in underground shelters, you can bet that the entire American media, pro-Israeli lobby groups and allied politicians will al go in overdrive to hype up the American society to join the Israeli war effort.

Israel may resort to nuclear weapons if such high intensity conflict occurs.

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran’s nuclear program posses no threat to Israel. In fact many within Israeli destablishment believe the government has been focusing on Iran in order to avoid critical domestic issues.

Let’s be honest, even if Islam says nukes are allowed. The use of nuclear weapons especially on a holy city (Jerusalem) is beyond haram.

The Israelis don’t care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program they care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program leading to normalization of ties with the world which in turn would allow Iran’s economy and society to grow and in turn the conventional war machine would completely overrun Israeli and Arab armies combined.

Thus even if Iran tommorrow renounced its entire nuclear program and removed every single piece of equipment, Israel would still be lobby the west to include sanctions on Iran’s economy.

The goal is to keep Iran chained forever and the excuse of the day to justify those chains can change from nuclear to fusion to A.I to human rights to Ballistic missiles to space program to etc etc

So again much like Russia didn’t like JCPOA, Israel does not either because they are afraid of a normalized Iran integrated in the world economy jeopardizing their standing in the world.

lran has much more to offer the world than Russia and Israel combined.

While I agree with what you said. The purpose of the nuclear "weapons" program has it's merits in a counter-strike against what could be a reality which would be a first nuclear strike on all Iranian conventional capabilities (i.e. missile bases) by Israel. No one is going to use such weapons on Quds, but Haifa is an option.

100% as you say, it's the normalization they fear the most, Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Iran must remain an outcast for them to be happy. Albeit, we have many in the Iran camp that prefer NO deal, and prefer this position because it does allow the opportunity for nuclear breakout.

Israel may resort to nuclear weapons if such high intensity conflict occurs.

This is what I believe as well, I mean, if I was Iran, I would seriously consider this option if my cities are being clobbered by 650kg warheads travelling at Mac 5.

 

[Surenas]

Iran’s nuclear program posses no threat to Israel. In fact many within Israeli destablishment believe the government has been focusing on Iran in order to avoid critical domestic issues.

Let’s be honest, even if Islam says nukes are allowed. The use of nuclear weapons especially on a holy city (Jerusalem) is beyond haram.

The Israelis don’t care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program they care about Iran’s nuclear weapons program leading to normalization of ties with the world which in turn would allow Iran’s economy and society to grow and in turn the conventional war machine would completely overrun Israeli and Arab armies combined.

That's not true.

The perception among the top brass in Israel is that Iran's nuclear program poses a critical threat to Israel's security and existence.

The worry is not necessarily that Iran would use a nuclear weapon against it, but that a nuclear powered Iran would increase its agressive posture in the region and that it, under its nuclear umbrella, would further bolster and advance its regional-military footprint.

If Iran would have been nuclear, how likely do you think it would've been for Israel to strike Iranian targets in Syria and elsewhere? The fact that in such scenario Iran would've been able to convincingly move upwards on the escalation ladder, with Israel having less space to manoeuvre due to a lack of strategic depth, makes this hypothetical scenario a potential strategic nightmare for our Jewish friends.

This lies at the heart of their worries. That they would be completely paralyzed against a fully confident and nuclear armed Iran. From what I've read, they even fear that such scenario would give them less room to manoeuvre against Iran's allied proxy groups. It would completely shatter their morale.