با عرض شرمندگی، دوباره یه طومار حرفهایی نوشتی که بخش زیادیش رو خودت هم میدونی که غیرصادقانه هستند
I entirely based myself upon verifiable facts, therefore I don't see what was dishonest about my demonstration.
نرخ باروری ترکیه تو سال ۲۰۲۰ دقیقاً ۲.۰۴۶ بوده. با اعشارش گفتم چون مثل اینکه چند هزارم برات خیلی مهم هست
In 2019, it amounted to 1.88. Here is proof from a Turkish source:
https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/turkey-s-fertility-rate-outpaces-27-eu-member-states-45274 . So I did not make this up. The figure you cited for 2020 also appears to be inferior to 2.1. And, one might add, the 4 million recently arrived Syrians, a population with very high birthrates, certainly contribute to an increase.
The bottom line is that Turkey, for quite some time, has been failing to achieve replacement level fertility rates. Like it or not, Turkey is faced with a demographic ageing issue. If you were / are unaware of this, I'd invite you to do some additional research. It's being publicly discussed by journalists and scholars for quite a few years now.
Here just a hanfdul of sources (mostly Turkish, both pro-Islamist and pro-secularist):
Aging population continues to rise in once-young Turkey
Turkey ranks 66th among 167 countries with a high elderly population as the inevitable aging phenomenon continues to grip the country. The latest official...
www.dailysabah.com
Turkey's population is ageing and the fertility rate is falling — report
According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), fertility rates in Turkey have fallen below the replacement rate, while legal-age child marriages have declined.
www.trtworld.com
Reeling from COVID-19 slump, Turkey's demographic challenges loom large
As part of his nationalistic agenda, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been encouraging families to have at least three children, but soaring brain drain and falling birth rates stand as major predicaments in front of his ambitions.
www.al-monitor.com
Turkey’s fertility rates remain far below replacement levels
The fertility rate in Turkey last year remained below the standard replacement level for a population, which is 2.1%, signaling that the aging trend will...
www.dailysabah.com
Turkey sees sharp drop in fertility rate to near Swedish level
Turkey’s revised average rate of births shows that as of 2019 the fertility rate dropped sharply from 2.069 babies per woman to 1.88, Guven Sak, a ...
www.intellinews.com
Turkey's waning fertility threatens Erdoğan's vision of strength
The president has been urging women to have three babies each, as his divided country faces a very European problem
www.theguardian.com
The demographic transformation of Turkey
Turkey is passing through a phase that all developed countries have passed through. The demographic transformation of the country is partially due to the...
www.dailysabah.com
Turkey faces aging population as fertility rate declines
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-faces-aging-population-as-fertility-rate-declines---99203
Frankly, there's no way one could deny or relativize the established factual reality pertaining to secular Turkey's demographic crisis.
. برگشتی میگی آلمان اوضاعش بهتر از ما نیست چون نرخش ۴ هزارم از ما کمتر هست! من گفتم اوضاع ایران شبیه آلمان هست که حرف درستی هم هست چون ۱.۶ با ۱.۵۹۶ فرق معنیداری نداره. وقتی سوئد و دانمارک و فرانسه وضعیتشون از ایران بهتر هست باید نشست گریه کرد
Not owing to their native populations' habits, but due to significant immigration from developing countries with strong fertility rates. Thanks to Somalis, Iraqis, Kurdish Turks and Kurdish Iraqis, Syrians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc. Natives of Europe have far lower fertility rates than the immigrants, due the consequences of modernity as well as liberal and secularist rule since generations.
Influx of immigrants that incidentally is undermining those western European states' original national character and is preparing them for dissolution into the messianist "world government" which globalist and zionist oligarchs are aiming for.
Besides, this again does not prove the existence of a correlation between theocratic system of governance and low birthrates. Given that comparable states with a secular system of governance, such as Turkey, are experiencing demographic crisis too. The latter observation rests on plain, simple logic, and shouldn't be very hard to admit. I would recommend not to systematically relate any of Iran's shortcomings to what you may subjectively dislike about the IR (namely its religious dimension), even if there's no causal justification for resorting to such inferences.
زمان جنگ ایران و عراق نرخ باروری ایران به دلیل فرهنگ اون دوره بالا بود و با سپری شدن زمان نرخ باروری در ایران و منطقه پایین اومده، بالا بودن نرخ به خاطر جنگ نبوده و حتی در سالهای پایانی دهه ۸۰ میلادی و شروع دهه ۹۰ میلادی نرخ پایینتر از زمان پیش از انقلاب بوده. زمان شاه نرخ باروری ایران بالای ۵ بود و حتی یک دورهای نزدیک ۷ بود.
Well, you had thought it necessary to specify that Syria is a war-torn country, as if to suggest that therefore Syria ought to have a lower fertility rate. I only set straight the fact that being at war does not necessarily lead to low birthrates, that's all. I did not make the opposite claim that war always increases fertility rates.
As for the comparison with the shah regime:
From 1950 to 1979, i.e. under most of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's rule, Iran's average annual population growth was visibly slower than during the 1980's.
Then you mention cultural changes. Here are the two reasons for the evolution of Iranian culture in this regard:
1) Modernization and urbanization of society, plus strongly accelerated human development under the Islamic Republic.
2) Propaganda, psy-ops, social engineering by hostile foreign entities, and specifically the promotion of liberal norms in Iranian society.
که یک بار دیگه اثبات میکنه که شریعت اسلام هیچ ربطی به نرخ باروری نداره
Which is to say that abolition of sharia law is not going to lead to an increase of fertility rates in Iran (exactly my point), since you just stated the two are unrelated to each other.
مثال ترکیه دقیقاً اثبات میکنه که سکولار بودن هیچ ربطی به کاهش نرخ باروری نداره که شما اینطوری داشتی القاء میکردی. مثال سوریه، لبنان، عراق و بقیه هم همینطور. مثال ایران زمان شاه هم همینطور
Be that as it may, Turkey's case also happens to show that implementing secularism will not solve a demographic crisis.
در مورد قد افراد و ضریب هوشی، اگه به علم ژنتیک اعتقاد داشته باشی میدونی که بخش زیادی از قد افراد و ضریب هوشی ارثی هست. یک فرد ورزشکار هم باید تمرین بکنه، هم باید تغذیه مناسب داشته باشه و هم از همه مهمتر ژنتیک مناسب برای حرفهاش داشته باشه. وقتی خزانه ژنتیکی از چنین افرادی خالی بشه قطعاً تو نسلهای بعد تاثیرگذار هست. تو همین چند سال گذشته خیلی از ورزشکارهای تیمهای ملی ما مهاجرت کردن
بعد واقعاً جدی میگی که ورزشکارها قد بلند نیستند؟ اکثر ورزشکارها بالای ۱۸۰ سانت هستند. همون کیمیا علیزاده که تازه دختر هم هست ۱۸۶ سانت هست
1) I merely posted a reminder that athletes aren't
necessarily tall. Various sports or roles / positions within certain sports in effect cater to people of shorter than average stature.
2) Just because anti-Iran media systematically make mountains out of moles, it doesn't mean we are dealing with considerable proportions. Professional athletes who emigrate aren't that many overall. No amount of such reports can replace a proper statistical survey anyway.
3) Even if the numbers of emigrating athletes were high, it'd be far out to consider that this will have a significant impact on the average height of a population of some 83 million...
میدونی خروج این همه ثروت و کارآفرین از اقتصاد ایران یعنی چی؟ میدونی ایرانیهای پولداری که از ایران به آمریکای شمالی یا کشورهایی مثل دوبی و اینها مهاجرت کردن چند تریلیون دلار ثروت دارن؟ حدوداً ۲ تریلیون دلار ثروت ایرانیهای خارج از ایران هست. سرانهاش برای جمعیت ایران میشه حدود نفری ۲۵ هزار دلار. ۹۹٪ این افراد حتی حاضر نیستند ۱ دلار تو کشورشون سرمایهگذاری کنند به خاطر شرایطی که ایجاد کردین.
This is simply due to the biggest propaganda and psy-ops campaign ever conducted against a nation, I am referring to several decades of massive and relentless western-zionist efforts to blacken the image of the Islamic Republic. To imagine that this has no influence on the minds of those westernized, gharb-parast individuals would be naive.
Conditions in Iran aren't worse than elsewhere, and this includes developed societies, let alone developing ones.
در مورد اینکه آیا ایران فرار مغزها داره یا نه، یک نگاه خیلی کلی به کشورهای آمریکای شمالی که پذیرای میلیونها ایرانی تحصیل کرده هستند پاسخ همه چیز رو میده
There are not millions of Iranians in the two countries which constitute North America. More like between 800.000 and 1.2 million, which is not such an impressive figure or proportion compared to many other nationalities (such as Indians, Vietnamese, Filipinos, Mexicans, Nicaraguans, Salvadorians, Algerians (in Canada), Lebanese, and even Japanese, south Koreans, Poles, Italians, Germans, French, British, and so on and so forth).
I have been studying the topic in utmost detail for many years, and absolutely know what I'm talking about. The exaggerated figures often thrown around by Iranians of all stripes (and relayed by foreign anti-Iran media, but never by the actual statistical bureaus of those same hostile foreign entities), are simply baseless, delusional and completely undocumented.
Official US surveys put the number of residents of Iranian extraction at a few hundred thousands only. In Canada, they are circa 210.000 to 230.000.
The total number of Iranians residing outside the country - whether still holders of Iranian citizenship, or naturalized into a foreign citizenship, or born abroad from two Iranian parents, does not exceed 3 million. In fact, I would put the figure closer to 2.5 million, and am able to prove my point based on official national statistics of host countries. That is by no means a particularly elevated percentage of the total population. Many nations, including highly wealthy and developed ones, beat Iran hands down in this regard.
کانادا و آمریکا روی هم دیگه بالای ۱.۵ میلیون مهاجر ایرانی دارن که خیلی هاشون فوق لیسانس به بالا هستند با نمرات خوب دانشگاهی از دانشگاههای برتر کشور. حتی آمارهایی که در سالهای مختلف توسط ارگانهای دولتی مانند وزارت علوم، معاونت پژوهشی ریاست جمهوری و دیگران داده شده نشون میده که بخش قابل توجهی از افرادی که از ایران مهاجرت کردن دارای مدارک بالای دانشگاهی از بهترین دانشگاههای ایران بودن
So which is it, millions as you stated one sentence earlier, or 1.5 million?
But either way, I shall name only one other group of immigrants to the USA for comparison, namely south Koreans. They number 1.7 million in the US alone, i.e. clearly more than Iranians. This is while Iran's mainland population is of 83 million, versus south Korea's 51.5 million. And, average education levels of south Koreans residing in the US are elevated as well.
That said, refer to the point made several times: nefarious American soft power is of gigantic consequences over nations. By all objective and well-researched accounts, the US is slowly but surely crumbling, be it economically, infrastructurally, socially, culturally (not that there's ever been a large amount of things worthy of being called "culture" in America). But its image in the minds of the gullible, achieved by Hollywoodian brainwashing and mental conditioning through incessant media bombardment, is still holding out to a large degree. The perception of America for what it truly is, is bound to replace this distorted, manufactured image, however. Let's give it some more time, it is certain to occur though.
ایران مقصد مهاجرت نیست؟ ۴ میلیون افغان و پاکستانی و عراقی رو داریم میزبانی میکنیم. کم هست؟
There are only some 15.000 Pakistanis residing in Iran. Not too many Iraqis either (a not inconsiderable part of them headed back home after 2003). That only leaves the nearly 4 million Afghan immigrants as a truly large group (this figure includes both legal and illegal residents).
I will rephrase my statement then: Iran is no destination for immigration in the western sense, namely mass immigration from a large variety of distant, cultrally alien spots. Given that Afghans are in fact culturally speaking Iranians, one may even almost consider them as natives.
ایران مقصد مهاجرت آدم حسابیها نیست، مقصد مهاجرت مهاجرین بدبخت و جنگ زده هست فقط.
That's the case of every developing nation (even the expat colonies of westerners in PGCC countries consist of people who stay there for some years only, before heading back home or elsewhere). And to expect anything else from a developing nation (and one keen on preserving its independence and sovereignty at that) is rather strange.
Now once again, thank God Iran is not beset with the sort of issues that stem from the type of mass immigration witnessed in western Europe.
بر عکس این که میگی با فرهنگ ما اصلاً سازگار نیستند. نیمی از افغانستان شبیه ما هستند، نیم دیگهاش هیچ شباهتی به ما ندارن و
Yes but those residing in Iran are mostly either Hazara and Shia Muslim or Sunni Tajik Farsi-speakers, many from Herat province, which is arguably one of the closest to Iran from the cultural point of view (and among the last provinces of Afghanistan to have been severed from Iran by the British during the 19th century).
حتی از ما بدشون هم میاد. یک نگاه به روابط ما با افغانستان در طول تاریخ بکنی بد نیست
Due to the meddling of hostile imperialist powers (both historically and nowadays), and also some domestic factors. These should be addressed and reversed though, not taken as some sort of a fatality.
و در پایان بگم که روز به روز در جنگ با پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی بیشتر داریم شکست میخوریم. پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی رو با پافشاری رو اندیشههای تک بعدی خرافی نمیشه خنثی کرد. هر چقدر در این ۴۲ سال تونستین خنثی کنید، در آینده هم میتونید. دهه به دهه نسل ایران ضد اسلامتر شده! منتهی مشکل اینجاست که زنگ خطر بحران دموگرافی ۱۰ سال هست که به صدا در اومده و سالهای آخری هست که فرصت جبران داریم وگرنه تا حداکثر یک دهه دیگه پنجره جمعیتی بسته میشه. تا شما بخوای پروپاگاندا رو خنثی کنی کار از کار گذشته. همون امید دانا که سنگش رو به سینه میزنی دلیل موفقیتاش فاصله گرفتن از تفکرات خرافی شما هست وگرنه یک پنجم مخاطبیناش رو هم نداشت
Those aren't superstitious ideas. Religion isn't about superstition. That said, in the information war, the IR can and is actually improving its communication aimed at less religious or non-religious people. In fact I would say that over the past three decades, its position has rarely been as advantageous and promising in this regard. We are witnessing a progressive albeit slow reversal of fortunes when it comes to the soft war.
But this is actually one of the most sophisticated arenas of conflict. And, it is arguably less conducive to unconventional, asymmetric resistance than the hard war theater. Here quantity and brute number / volume of assets and means actually matter more (refer back to Joseph Goebbels's famous mantra relative to the sheer repetition of a lie).
Another novel area Islamic Iran might possibly need to venture into is that of social engineering.
Now as concerns demography in particular, like I mentioned earlier, it is a ticking time bomb indeed, one of the most serious yet less heard of existential threats to Iran. And yes, there's not much time left to reverse the trend. Yet, even outside of information campaigns and social engineering, there's a series of relatively simple, classic incentivizing legal instruments which would be helpful, and which I mentioned above: subsidies, tax cuts and other advantages for families with more than two children, and so on. Iran just needs to have the proper administration interested in carrying out these policies. A revolutionary administration is most likely to go ahead with it.
So there's a duty for every patriotic Iranian to go and vote coming June for an authentically revolutionary candidate (read: not a reformist, not a moderate, not a so-called pragmatic conservative).
