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Iranian Chill Thread

South Korean comments are completely out of touch with reality of Iran-UAE relations.

Yes, the islands are a point of friction, but 10% of the population of UAE is Iranian with significant business & financial interest. UAE's largest export market is also Iran.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-korea-president-in-uae-backs-return-to-nuclear-power/2023/01/16/ad673f46-9572-11ed-a173-61e055ec24ef_story.html

Yeah,I honestly have to wonder what this clown has been popping,smoking,drinking,shooting or sniffing,either that or hes really,really reaching his hardest to try and come up with an iran dprk analogy.
:jester:

The south koreans really are complete fvcking morons,you`d think that considering their dependence on the pg nations for their energy,and irans control of the access point to that energy,that they`d certainly be making the effort to attempt to come up with a way to either pay the monies that they owe,or provide something(s) of equivalent value,and at least stay on somewhat good terms with iran.
Still vassals are as vassal do,and that usually means putting their own interests last.

Tho I think this is where iran could certainly do a lot more to bring home the point to them that this problem is not simply going to go away,and indeed that their continued lack of action on this issue could potentially imperil their continued persian gulf privileges.
 
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هیچوقت روش پیشنهادی بالا رو اجرا نکردند و یارانه پولی ریختن تو بازار

روش بالا امتحان نشده
و بله
دوران طرح پزشکان از جاروکش شبکه ها کمتر درآمد دارند
طرح؟ من طرحم سال 1386 تمام شد .
توی تهران کار میکردم پزشک یکی از سازمانهای زیر نظر نهاد رهبری بودم.
الان پزشکی مثل اواز دهل شنیدن شده . هر کی میشنوه میگه چیه . خبر نداره که اینی که فکر میکنن تنها 5-10 درصد پزشکها هستند.

من هرچی فکر می‌کنم میبینم که هزینه کاری نکردن و دست رو دست گذاشتن بیشتر از این حرف هاست​
این کار راهش نیست شما اگر حامل های انرژی را به قیمت اروپا و آمریکا بکنی بدون اینکه قدرت خرید مردم را بالا ببری انقلابی بشه که انقلاب روسیه بر علیه تزار ها پیشش بچه بازی باشد . و تنها یک راه برای بالا بردن قدرت خرید مردم هست و اونم اینه که یک فکری اول برای ارزش پول ملی بکنی. در ضمن زندگی همه اش خورد خوراک نیست که بگی با کوپن سهمیه درستش میکنم​
 
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I think we should separate these two things first how much of this 40% inflation is comes from outside and second how much of it is homemade ?

First part
For example did Japan had the power to stop US influence during and after 2008 housing bubble in US which lead to crashing markets.I think there are things that you may do and things that are out of your capabilities.

Back to Iran last year was a wile year in whole world biggest example of it can be seen in 8-9% of inflation in US and since Iran has a lot of unsolved issues with US and western world I think it would be fair to add this 8-9% of US inflation into our inflation and see it as some kind of safety measure.

Then we have price of things we use in our country that are not that much related to what happens with US dollar.(mostly our neighbors stuff)we should put these things into consideration too.

Second part
How much this inflation is from good side of inflation and how much of it relates to our old bad habits ?

On good part I can think of growth rate of a country , if your economy is growing you need same amount or slightly higher inflation percentage compared to your growth percentage otherwise in future you will lose this healthy growth.

you know better than me about bad habits so ...


Conclusion

I think it would be fair to add 9% (US inflation/ what is happening in the world) plus 7% (slightly more than growth rate) which equals to 16%.

40-16=24%

This remaining 24% inflation should be priority of government to solve it's problems.and to be fair if you have a high inflation for a few years in a row it takes time to reduce it.
Remember the definition of inflation:

TOO MUCH MONEY CHASING FEW GOODS

So reduce the amount of money (stop printing) and increase the production of goods...a two pronged attack on inflation will work for every economy...and I agree that a more reasonable inflation for Iran should be around 20% or less.
 
اهمیت تریاک ایران برای صادرات به چین در حوالی جنگ تریاک چین

محمد مهدی ارباب پدربزرگ فروغی و ساسون ها در بمبئی نقش آغازکننده دارند
تریاک ایران به دلیل مرغوبیت بازار تریاک ترکیه را در چین شکست داده و رقیب تریاک هند محسوب می‌شد. این تریاک به سه مصرف می‌رسید: اول، صدور آن به بازار وسیع چین؛ صدور به انگلیس و تبدیل آن به مرفین؛ و سوم، فروش آن در بازار داخلی ایران. در صفحات پیش دیدیم که در آغاز این «بازار داخلی» وجود نداشت، ولی ده سال پس از اقدام میرزاحسین خان مشیرالدوله از بمبئ برای کاشت تریاک در ایران، کار به جایی رسید که اعتیاد به تریاک به یک پدیده اجتماعی وسیع بدل شد. برای آن‌که این اهمیت اقتصادی ملموس شود، خلاصه‌ای از آمارهای مندرج در کتاب عیسوی را به همراه توضیحاتی دیگر می‌آوریم:
1267 ق./ 1850 م: گزارش میرزا حسین‌خان مشیرالدوله سپهسالار) از بمبئ و ترغیب حکومت قاجاریه تریاک‌کاری و آغاز این کشت و صدور آن.
1276ق. / 1859م: تولید تریاک 300 جعبه و هر جعبه به وزن 195 پوند بود.
1277ق./1860م.: آغاز ثبت اعتیاد ایرانیان به تریاک در سفرنامه‌های خارجیان.
1278ق./1861م.: صادرات تریاک ایران بالغ بر 1000 جعبه بود.
1284ق./1867م.: طبق گزارش کنسول انگلیس در تهران حدود 10000 من شاهی معادل 130000 پوند تریاک ایران به چین صادر شد.
1286ق. / 1869م.: طبق گزارش جانشین کنسول فوق، مقدار تریاک ایران 540000 پوند و مقدار صدور آن 250000 پوند بود.
1288ق./ 1871م.: آغاز صدارت میرزاحسین‌خان مشیرالدوله (سپهسالار).
صادرات تریاک ایران از طریق خلیج‌فارس هفت برابر شد و از 870 جعبه درسال قبل به 7700 جعبه به ارزش 847000 روپیه رسید. در اولین سال زراعی پس از صدارت سپهسالار توسعه کشت تریاک سبب رکود کشت غلات و سایر محصولات و بروز قحطی شد.
1297ق. / 1880م.: پایان صدارت سپهسالار.
در این زمان کل محصول تریاک ایران 8000 جعبه بود که حدود 7700 جعبه صادر می‌شد. تریاک ایران در هنک‌کنگ جعبه‌ای 450 الی 520 دلار به فروش می‌رسید. یک جعبه تا 539 دلار نیز فروش رفته است.
با این حساب، اگر صادرات تریاک ایران را در دوران ده ساله صدارت سپهسالار حداقل 7000 جعبه و بهای هر جعبه را 450 دلار حساب کنیم، ارزش تریاک صادراتی ایران سالیانه 3150000 دلار بوده است. ثمرة همین «ترقی» بود که میرزاحسین‌خان سپهسالار، نوة یک پیشه‌ور بی‌چیز، را در پایان صدارتش در زمرة یکی از متمولین طراز اول کشور قرار داد.
این ناشناخته‌ترین ـ و به گمان ما اصلی‌ترین منبع ثروت سپهسالار بود. درباره سایر منابع ثروت او سخن‌ها گفته شده. دکتر جواد شیخ‌الاسلامی، به نقل از محمدحسن خان اعتمادالسلطنه، می‌نویسد که سپهسالار در ماجرای امتیاز رویتر مبلغ 50000 لیره رشوه از بارون رویتر دریافت داشت و می‌افزاید: «دقت کنید: این لیره‌ها به نرخ امروز طلا، سر به میلیون‌ها می‌زند!» و چنین نتیجه‌گیری می‌کند:
سپهسالار موقعی که مرد بی‌گمان یکی از ثروتمندترین رجال ایران بود. جویبار ثروت کلانش به سرچشمه‌های مختلف می‌پیوست و اغلب این سرچشمه‌ها متأسفانه کدر و مشکوک و آلوده بود. در زمان صدارت میرزاآقاخان نوری، موقعی که سرکنسول ایران در تفلیس بود، گندم به قیمت خیلی ارزان از آذربایجان وارد می‌کرد و به روس‌ها که مشغول جنگ در شبه‌جزیره کریمه بودند به قیمت‌های هنگفت و سرسام‌آور می‌فروخت. خودش روزی در حضور ناصرالدین‌شاه که صحبت از منشاء تموّل سرشارش بود، به صراحت اعتراف کرد که در زمان سفارتش در استانبول، در سفری که به اروپا می‌کرده یکی از ثروتمندان معروف عثمانی را که مرتکب قتلی شده بوده است، با استفاده از مصونیت دیپلماتیک سفرا، در لباس پیش‌خدمتی سفارت ایران در کشتی نشانده و با خود به اروپا فرار داده است و قاتل ترک (به اعتراف خود سپهسالار در حضور شاه) صد هزار لیره طلا به‌عنوان سپاس‌مزد این عمل به وی تقدیم کرده است.
ثروت‌های نامشروع وقتی که انباشه شدند، اصل و منشأشان به تدریج فراموش و پس از گذشت یکی دو نسل کلاً به بوته فراموشی سپرده می‌شود. دیگر کسی نمی‌پرسد که جمع‌کنندگان آن ثروت‌ها چگونه و از چه راهی به دارائی و مکنت کلان خود دست یافته‌اند. حتی امروز هم از میان کسانی که در مسجد سپهسالار نماز می‌خوانند یا مجلس ختم می‌گذارند، یا از میان طلایی که در آن مسجد حجره دارند، شاید یک در هزارشان ندانند که بنیانگزار این مسجد که بوده و هزینه بنای آن را از چه راه‌هایی تأمین کرده است؟

مسجد سپه سالار با پول تریاک
 

I have spoken great lengths about the inverse demographics pyramid that plague many developed countries. China is no exception. By 2100 Chinese population is estimated to drop to 800 million. By 2040 60%+ of the country will be over the age of 50 or 60 (can’t remember off the top of my head).

Japan, European countries, etc all are experiencing this phenomenon. Iran will be no exception.

This is the true threat to major societies that do not have massive immigration waves each year.
 
Inflation in Iran is at around 40%...so lets break it down to its 8 category that drive the inflation .These 8 categories are inflation drivers as measured to calculate inflation:

  • 1- Food prices
  • 2- Shelter (housing prices or rent)
  • 3-Household operations (heating,Taxes,water costs)
  • 4-furnishings and equipment prices
  • 5-Transportation costs (Auto prices,fuel prices)
  • 6-Health and personal care costs
  • 7-Recreation costs
  • 8-Education costs
keeping in mind that "energy" is the basis of producing most of these items. Energy (petroleum,Gas,electricity) is dirt cheap in Iran and most of these 8 items are produced in Iran ..the question is why inflation is at 40%!! it makes no sense..yes there are not enough of them for now (Housings or autos) but this can not create such a high 40% inflation.

So again why inflation is at 40% in Iran..my only answer as another PDF member pointed out:

It is the declining value of Iranian currency ...and that decline only happens when you create too much "Rials" out of the thin air!...somebody is printing money in Iran ..if it is not central bank then who!

Private banks which have the Central Bank print it for them so they can carry on with their embezzlement schemes. Private banks have been the single biggest cause for the rise of the monetary mass since the Rohani administration.

In this conference, Ra'efipur explains it in minute detail:


Snow covers most of Iran

Under 15% of the territory. But those 15% comprise a considerable share of population centers.
 
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This is a photo of Greek fence along their border with Turkey...I suggest Iran to plan similar fences along our Eastern borders ...Illegal Immigration will eventually bite Iran hard if you do not do anything about it.... Mullahs of Iran are creating a slow cooking problem for Iran and can not see it..

The problem is that mass immigration is the only solution to demographic decline caused by a sustained drop in birth rates. Countries such as south Korea, because they want to avoid having to fix the issue through mass immigration, seeing how it inevitably leads to cultural dissolution and loss of a nation's distinct identity, spent no less than $200 billion trying to boost the birth rate. In vain.


Simply put, once you've fallen into the trap, there's no way getting out of it. The fertility rate in Iran is beyond alarming, having fallen below demographic replacement level several years ago. It now stands at 1,71 births per female in age of procreating. Replacement threshold being 2,1 to 2,2. This means the shape of Iran's age pyramid is inverting very fast.

The actual ticking time bomb is this. Contrary to a common fallacy debunked by experts in demographic studies, who are consensual about it, less children does not equal more individual wealth if the fertility rate settles at below 2,1 as is the case of Iran. Rather, economic collapse will be the consequence, unless prevented through massive influx of young immigrants. When you have too many elderly people compared to young ones, apart from the fact that it will kill innovation and reduce the workforce, it will also create the insurmountable dilemma of who is going to finance pensions when there are not enough people working.

Since the days of Hashemi Rafsanjani's administration, excessive birth control policies have literally ruined Iran's demographic dynamics. And, liberals keep lobbying hard to prevent governments from correcting the trend. Very high birth rates during the 1980's might have justified some of these policies initially, but they kept being implemented much longer than they should have, resulting in the current situation which is nothing short of suicidal. Some of the measures taken, such as permanent male sterilization or propagation of the idea among ordinary Iranians that they'll be more prosperous if they stop giving birth to offspring, are highly disruptive by essence.

As a result, even villagers in Iran have ceased giving birth to children in sufficient numbers. Iranians are having fewer children that the French. Already, Iran has the eldest population among all countries in the so-called Middle East i.e. the region spanning West Asia and North Africa. I wonder if everyone here is realizing what this means. Did you know there are reports that Iranian males in rural areas were sterilized without their knowledge? With this in mind, listen to statements of globalist oligarchs such as William Gates and draw your conclusions.

Iran needs a fertility rate of between 2,2 to 2,5 for healthy economic outlook - no ifs and buts. However time's running out for the government to be able to do something about it, because as said when demographic slump settles in, there's no remedy to it in our epoch. Indeed, there's not a single contemporary example of a country managing to solve the issue other than through mass immigration. Not a single one.

So prior to building border walls to stop immigrants from entering Iran, the demographic evolution must to be addressed, and it must be done now not tomorrow. Otherwise, say goodbye to the Iranian civilization. Iraq's population has reached over 44 million, and their population growth is above 2%. Expect a future in which Iran will be much more Arabic in character.

Likewise, the only group with a high enough demographic growth rate in Iran are Sunni Moslem citizens. Nothing against our Sunni brothers in Islam of course, however when our Sunni compatriots are being exposed to heavy propaganda and social engineering by foreign-based enemy media dedicated to Sunni Iranian audiences (comprising not one but at least three satellite broadcasters, thousands upon thousands of internet sites and "social media" accounts), which is intensely promoting sectarianism and animosity against Shia Muslims, you know what this will lead to.
 
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10% of the population of UAE is Iranian

Officially there are some 454.000 Iranian residents in the UAE, which is more like 5% of the population rather than 10%. However, this figure is inflated because a significant portion of these are not actually and effectively staying in the UAE. They are upper and higher middle class Iranians who received a residence permit from the UAE regime because they bought real estate, invested in the Emirati economy, etc. At best the UAE's their secondary place of residence, where they spend vacations. The same holds true of the 165.000 Iranians who're supposed to reside in Turkey. The real figure is perhaps half that number.
 
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Mass immigration is the only solution to demographic decline caused by reduced birth rates. Ask the Germans. Countries such as south Korea, because they want to avoid having to fix the issue through mass immigration, seeing how it inevitably leads to cultural dissolution and loss of a nation's distinct identity, spent no less than $200 billion trying to boost the birth rate. In vain.


Simply put, once you've fallen into the trap, there's no way getting out of it. The fertility rate in Iran is beyond alarming, having fallen below demographic replacement level several years ago. It now stands at 1,71 births per female in age of procreating. Replacement threshold being 2,1 to 2,2. This means the shape of Iran's age pyramid is inverting very fast.

The actual ticking time bomb is this. Contrary to a common fallacy debunked by experts in demographic studies, who are consensual about it, less children does not equal more individual wealth if the fertility rate settles at below 2,1 as is the case of Iran. Rather, economic collapse will be the consequence, unless prevented through massive influx of young immigrants. When you have too many elderly people compared to young ones, apart from the fact that it will kill innovation and reduce the workforce, it will also create the insurmountable dilemma of who is going to finance pensions when there are not enough people working.

Since the days of Hashemi Rafsanjani's administration, excessive birth control policies have literally ruined Iran's demographic dynamics. And, liberals keep lobbying hard to prevent governments from correcting the trend. Very high birth rates during the 1980's might have justified some of these policies initially, but they kept being implemented much longer than they should have, resulting in the current situation which is nothing short of suicidal. Some of the measures taken, such as permanent male sterilization or propagation of the idea among ordinary Iranians that they'll be more prosperous if they stop giving birth to offspring, are highly disruptive by essence.

As a result, even villagers in Iran have ceased giving birth to children in sufficient numbers. Iranians are having fewer children that the French. Already, Iran has the eldest population among all countries in the so-called Middle East i.e. the region spanning West Asia and North Africa. I wonder if everyone here is realizing what this means. Did you know there are reports that Iranian males in rural areas were sterilized without their knowledge? With this in mind, listen to statements of globalist oligarchs such as William Gates and draw your conclusions.

Iran needs a fertility rate of between 2,2 to 2,5 for healthy economic outlook - no ifs and buts. However time's running out for the government to be able to do something about it, because as said when demographic slump settles in, there's no remedy to it in our epoch. Indeed, there's not a single contemporary example of a country managing to solve the issue other than through mass immigration. Not a single one.

So prior to building border walls to stop immigrants from entering Iran, the demographic evolution must to be addressed, and it must be done now not tomorrow. Otherwise, say goodbye to the Iranian civilization. Iraq's population has reached over 44 million, and their population growth is above 2%. Prepare for a future Iran that will be much more Arabic in character.

Likewise, the only group with a fast demographic growth in Iran are Sunni Moslems. Nothing against our Sunni brothers in Islam of course, however when our Sunni compatriots are being exposed to heavy propaganda and social engineering by the enemy's media apparatus dedicated to Sunni Iranian audiences, which is intensely promoting sectarianism and animosity against Shia Muslims, you know what this will lead to.
Part of the issue a large number of civilizations are facing currently, likely spurred on by modern feminism. I say this because if you ask women, they'd simply rather not have the responsibility of children, even if their financial situation is perfect. As a matter of fact, the better it is, the more likely they don't want children.

Essentially, the population growth would have to come from rurals, and from the afghan migrants coming into the border which is not a terrible issue considering many Afghans can become assimilated into Iran for various close historical reasons. Whether that'll offset the issues I am not sure. As long as the Taliban continue to control Afghanistan, we can expect a constant flow.

Iraq's fertility rate will also slump with time, they are just a bit further behind than us in terms of sudden rapid growth. What is concerning with Iraq is how unlivable the country is becoming with heat &, especially with water resources, their situation is far worse than ours. Iraqi will not be a stable country for some time I believe, I think many will migrate to Iran, but most will try to go to Saudi Arabia or Turkey considering their better economic situation.
 
Part of the issue a large number of civilizations are facing currently, likely spurred on by modern feminism. I say this because if you ask women, they'd simply rather not have the responsibility of children, even if their financial situation is perfect. As a matter of fact, the better it is, the more likely they don't want children.

This is another factor. But also things such as the increased share of females among higher education students (over 50%), among the workforce (still far lower than the west but more than erstwhile) etc. It all contributes to reducing birth rates.

Essentially, the population growth would have to come from rurals, and from the afghan migrants coming into the border which is not a terrible issue considering many Afghans can become assimilated into Iran for various close historical reasons. Whether that'll offset the issues I am not sure. As long as the Taliban continue to control Afghanistan, we can expect a constant flow.

Iraq's fertility rate will also slump with time, they are just a bit further behind than us in terms of sudden rapid growth. What is concerning with Iraq is how unlivable the country is becoming with heat &, especially with water resources, their situation is far worse than ours. Iraqi will not be a stable country for some time I believe, I think many will migrate to Iran, but most will try to go to Saudi Arabia or Turkey considering their better economic situation.

It may temporarily alleviate the issue. However even that would turn into a source of social frictions, despite the Afghan people's close proximity to Iranians. The enemy's Persian-language media have deliberately been fueling conflicts on both sides - telling Afghan immigrants that Iranians are treating them in horrible ways, while at the same time telling Iranians that Afghan immigrants are misbehaving, causing crime rates to climb etc.

Another point to consider, is that the great majority of Afghans, including those whose mother tongue is Persian, are Sunni Moslems. Again, Sunnis are beloved brothers in Islam and I'm certainly not trying to attribute any sort of a predisposition towards extremism or sectarianism to them. Sunni Islam is not the issue. The issue is the enemy's soft war capability. Putting to use its gigantic propaganda, psy-ops and social engineering apparatus, the enemy is known to be exploiting the slightest nominal difference between Iranians. Including but not limited to, promoting inter-confessional sectarianism. Therefore if you add more divides at the societal level, you will only increase the security challenges facing the country.

Fundamentally there's no way around a sound set of efficient policies aimed at boosting the fertility rate and encouraging Iranians to have more children. And it must be done immediately, otherwise the final window of opportunity will close for good.
 
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I have spoken great lengths about the inverse demographics pyramid that plague many developed countries. China is no exception. By 2100 Chinese population is estimated to drop to 800 million. By 2040 60%+ of the country will be over the age of 50 or 60 (can’t remember off the top of my head).

Japan, European countries, etc all are experiencing this phenomenon. Iran will be no exception.

This is the true threat to major societies that do not have massive immigration waves each year.
Yeah, it is a big problem, aggravated by the covid caution. It will be part of west media staple for quite some time.

But also, the kind of social problem China excel at dealing with. In for a surprise.

Anyway, we don't need a billion, average education of old generation is quite low, and it is getting impossible to provide so many jobs. 800m with better structure is fine.
 
Its bullshit! Its complete bullshit!

My full statement read: mass immigration is the only solution to demographic decline caused by reduced birth rates. I should have added, sustained (as in sustained reduction of birth rates).

There's no counter-example in modern times, if you know one please share. South Korea spent $200 billion so far in hopes of solving the issue without having to resort to mass immigration, but they failed miserably.

Once demographic stagnation sets in and becomes the norm, it's quasi impossible to reverse the trend under contemporary social-cultural conditions. So better start quickly and redress the fertility rate before it's too late. This is my point.

Even if there were other solutions, I believe we can agree that the more you wait, the harder it will become to remedy a long term fall of the fertility rate. In the first place, Iran should avoid the situation south Korea, Japan, Germany or Russia find themselves in.
 
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