I just read a report yesterday. Russia has 170,000 troops in Ukraine. Their main issue is a lack of manpower. I don't understand why Putin doesn't just declare war and mobilize the 2 million reserves that Russia has.
Russia lost territory in the Kharkiv region during the last few days but they managed to salvage their troops and avoid being encircled.
The Russians can't use their airforce effectively because of Ukrainian air defense systems. They can't effectively target the Ukrainian air defense systems because for the most part they're not active. Ukrainians hide them and rely on spotters on the ground and NATO satellite and AWACS intelligence to direct them. That makes them even more dangerous because they can basically pop out of nowhere.
During the last few days the Russians didn't really put up a fight. There were no major clashes. The Ukrainians had 15,000+ while the Russians had 5000 or less. The Ukrainians had the numerical advantage and pushed their advantage before the Russians could send reinforcements to stabilize the lines.
On the Kherson front, Ukraine's counter offensive has stalled, they failed to seize the Zaporizhia nuclear plant, losing 400+ elite troops in the process, but in Kharkiv they were extremely successful.
From the available evidence it seems apparent that a significant numbers of foreign volunteers/mercenaries took part in the Kharkiv offensive and it's very noticeable that most of Ukraine's tanks and armor during the operation have been provided by NATO countries (Humvees, Kirpi MRAPs from Turkey, M113s,etc) Most of the armor that Ukraine originally had has likely been destroyed. Without NATO, Ukraine wouldn't have been able to survive this long, never mind launch a counter offensive.
Now the question is, will the Ukrainians cross the Oskil river, will the Russians actually put up a fight, because they're capable of fighting back but will they ? do they have sufficient numbers ? Will they destroy the bridges across the river ? Because they didn't even destroy one bridge while the Ukrainians advanced. I guess we have to wait and see.
Russia’s war has been a blunder border-lining now on disaster.
Iran and it’s allies took back 70% of Syria and 80-90% of the population when they were surrounded in Damascus and rebels were shelling the royal palace.
Russia can barely hold on to Luchnask and Donbass provinces with 300K.
There were flashes of Russian incompetence in Syria that foreshadowed this (a Russian general stepping on a known landmine was the creme de le creme ). Even the Russian airforce credited for turning the tide of Syrian war had many erroneous or ineffective air strikes compared to western counterparts.
Of course the Goebbels and Baghdad Bob’s of this board will spin this as a positive for Russia and all part of some grand master plan. These guys minds cannot cope with loss in any shape or form.
But the only tool left Russia has is to cut off gas to Europe and hope for pain in winter.