Iranian Chill Thread

[Hack-Hook]

But how can Russian AWACS or infared pods find Ukrainian air defense systems if they're not even turned on ? They're dispersed and they hide them in the most unexpected places. Anywhere from a large house garage, a barn, in the forest, in an industrial garage.

Then when they receive intel, they come out, engage the target and some missiles can track the target by themselves after a certain point so in some cases they're only active for 10-20 minutes then they go back into hiding. So they're not that easy to find. It even took the US months to find all the Iraqi SCUD batteries in the first Gulf War. That was in the middle of the desert. Of course technology has progressed alot since then but still.

they are not needed to be turned on , the system is made of metal and certainly will have different temperature with the living trees around them they easily will be pick up by any descent infrared pods and AWACS is supposed to show Ukraine aircraft, drones and helicopter not turned off air defense . also those air-defense Ukraine have are not that mobile expect the shorad when they turned on it take up to 1 hour to fold them up and relocate them , AWACS can get the signal and warn Russian artillery and air-force of the location of the radars when they are turned on and they could destroy them, no such thing happened

 

[Stryker1982]

Don't forget Afghanistan was not too long ago. I don't think the Americans would have an easy time in Iran and I think they know this.

If this is how they will be confronted, then what can u say.

I didn't mean ground, I was more referring to air, air defense, missile and sea clash.


This is what a real exercise should be like.

Even thought it is very cinematic, you can see details as well
With a couple equipment upgrades even a small cadre of IRGC units can be very dangerous and ferocious fighters.
You can tell very easily who are the people who learned and adapted in Syria, and transmitted their experience and who has sacred defense mentality.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Some countries like France/UK only have 200 tanks so For Ukraine to have received 200+ tanks is ALOT.

some country rely on collective defense force AKA NATO
by the way france have 406 leclerc (254 in serviceand 152 in storage) but they also have 247 AMX-10 that while don't have the armor of a tank have a main 105mm cannon

 

[sha ah]

Still you get my point. Ukraine has more than certainly received more than 200 tanks. Then there's all the armored vehicles and Infantry fighting vehicles (BMP, M113, Humvees, Kirpi MRAP, etc), not to mention all the artillery, spare jets and HIMARS. A BBC interview and an interview with a conscript a few months ago confirmed it. Russia basically destroyed most of Ukraine's armor and killed most of their contract soldiers within the first few months of the war.

This offensive in Kharkiv involved the most elite units the Ukrainians have left, along with some newly trained personnel that received training in the UK and Poland. There were also a significant number of foreign mercenaries/volunteers and even women involved in the fighting.

I've heard that in some EU countries, the price of heating has gone up 8x. That is no joke and today the president of Hungary, Victor Orban stated that the EU is out of natural gas. That contradicts what Germany said a week ago, stating that they have enough reserves for the winter. In any case, if this winter turns out to be excessively cold, the EU will suffer. I mean 8x the price from last year ? That is insane. That means that if your heating bill last year was $200, this year it will be $1600.

There have been several protests in the EU recently and there are more planned. People are burning their bills on the streets while others are organizing a mass boycott, basically refusing to pay. Some EU countries are setting up relief funds. Basically they're being forced to subsidize the price of electricity while they're going into recession. Is this sustainable for the EU ?

Realistically if Ukraine isn't able to quickly win back all their territory within the next few months and if this war drags on, I know the Americans don't give a damn but many European countries will soon be pressured by their populations to put an end to this war. Right now there isn't even enough natural gas, LNG and otherwise to supply the EU.

It will take years to build up the necessary infrastructure, but even then they will have to pay 3-4x more at the least to buy LNG and from other sources. Even the president of Poland recently lashed out at Norway for charging Poland 4x more than what they were paying Russia last year. Is this sustainable for the EU ? I don't think so. If this war drags on the pressure will begin to mount.

some country rely on collective defense force AKA NATO
by the way france have 406 leclerc (254 in serviceand 152 in storage) but they also have 247 AMX-10 that while don't have the armor of a tank have a main 105mm cannon

 

[sha ah]

At the start of the war Ukraine had 250x S-300 batteries. They're pretty mobile and don't take that long to setup.

they are not needed to be turned on , the system is made of metal and certainly will have different temperature with the living trees around them they easily will be pick up by any descent infrared pods and AWACS is supposed to show Ukraine aircraft, drones and helicopter not turned off air defense . also those air-defense Ukraine have are not that mobile expect the shorad when they turned on it take up to 1 hour to fold them up and relocate them , AWACS can get the signal and warn Russian artillery and air-force of the location of the radars when they are turned on and they could destroy them, no such thing happened

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568880258631221249

 

[Surenas]

My real concern for Iran is that neither Russia or China want to partner to form a true axis to combat the West. Instead of 3 Musketeers ‘one for all and all for one’ ....it’s 3 Lone Wolves getting attacked by themselves.

This is the key.

And this goes much further than the political elite of China and Russia not willing to form a true alliance with like-minded countries. Any reluctance of these states to share the burden of confronting the West stems from a lack of shared values, historical consciousness and identity between the populations they represent. The average Chinese is not willing to suffer in the scenario of Russia being attacked by the West. Similarly, the average Russian will not come at Iran's rescue if we would ever be confronted by outside powers.

Compare this to the West. People over here are willing to suffer economically and even physically because they consider Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be a grave injustice and an attack on their own values. Their governments are even at times being accused by their own populations of pussyfooting with their fickle support for Ukraine. Thousands of Westerners travelled thousands of miles to fight on Ukrainian soil against Russia's presumed deadly fighting machine, and more people would do so if their governments would order a complete mobilization.

There may be some support between China, Russia and Iran, but it isn't strategic nor are their long-standing ties that would provide a breeding ground for it.

 

[sha ah]

Well the Russians have the resources to win this. They could just mobilize, not even a full mobilization, just a partial one, 250,000-500,000 troops. They could have purchased hundreds of Iranian drones and saturated the airspace, but they didn't.

China has been supporting Russia economically, buying not only energy from them but alot of Chinese consumers have been going on a frenzy buying Russian products to support them. On the other hand North Korea has offered to deploy 500,000 troops to Ukraine in support of Russia. But will Russia take up the offer ? Because of their pride, probably not. Same reason why they didn't buy Iranian drones.

Of course it's not the same as the west directly sending weapons but Ukraine has a deficit of weapons, Russia doesn't and even if they did they could purchase more. The foreign fighters in Ukraine, I believe according to one estimate, number 2000, maybe the real number is much higher, but according to the estimate half of them have left already.

Many of them were veterans of Iraq/Afghanistan but when they realized that they were actually in a situation where they didn't have every conceivable advantage on their side, they fled. Like that Canadian sniper Wally. Western media promoted him, built him up as the best sniper in the world. However when he realized that he was up against tanks and artillery and that in some cases Ukrainian troops were actually at a disadvantage, he quickly left.

At the end of the day the Russians are suffering from a manpower deficiency issue. 170,000 troops IS NOT ENOUGH for a 900 KM front. It simply isn't. The Americans were fighting on a 200-300 km from in Iraq and they had 370,000 troops and with Iraq, the Shia and Kurdish population (70%) had been persecuted by Saddam so they didn't fight. On the other hand, 12 years of constant bombings, sanctions and previous wars had crippled Iraq by that point. NATO, the most powerful military organization on the planet supports Ukraine. Who supported Iraq/Saddam ? NOBODY

Anyways back to the point, what are the Russians going to do about it ? What are they going to do about their lack of manpower ? What about the stalemate in the air. Ukraine's massive stockpile of Soviet air defense systems, as well as advanced weapons from NATO (HIMARS, Anti radiation bombs), as well as a network of spotters with MANPADS on the ground, as well as NATO intelligence (AWACS/Satellite intel) has blunted Russia's airpower.

The question is what are they going to do about it ? Saturating the airspace with low cost UAVs is one solution. The Russians could have just purchased Iranian drones, even just until they produced enough of their own, like a stop gap measure, but they didn't and won't.

Another issue is that in recent months, since taking Severodonetsk, the Russians have become complacent. Just like the Americans in Afghanistan. But complacency does not win wars. Fortune favors the bold. It seems like Putin is hoping that this winter will help the Russians turn the tide. If this winter turns out to be extremely cold, he's hoping that the EU's support for Ukraine will waver. He's might also be hoping that the Ukrainians won't be prepared for a cold winter and that's when his army can make some gains.

Realistically though NATO is already scrambling to send winter jackets to Ukraine. However Zelensky recently claimed that Ukraine had a 1 million man army. He's probably exaggerating. So assuming Ukraine has a 400,000 man army, with most of them being under-trained conscripts, will NATO be able to provide winter wear / gear for that many troops ? Who knows but anyways when it comes to Ukraine, they had an issue with training their troops. Many conscripts were only given training for a few days or weeks before being sent to the front. Now they're addressing this issue by sending troops to the UK, Poland, Spain for training.

After the first phase of the war the Russians adapted well by shortening the front and using their overwhelming advantage in firepower and artillery to decimate Ukrainian positions. However like I said, after Severodonetsk they became complacent. They don't seem to be proactive enough and as a result have now paid the price. This might actually end up being good for them in the long run. Maybe they needed a slap in the face, a wake up call of sorts. At the end of the day, I don't know how this war will end, nobody knows for sure, but all I know is that if the Russians don't address their deficiencies, then they might as well pack up and leave now.

This is the key.

And this goes much further than the political elite of China and Russia not willing to form a true alliance with like-minded countries. Any reluctance of these states to share the burden of confronting the West stems from a lack of shared values, historical consciousness and identity between the populations they represent. The average Chinese is not willing to suffer in the scenario of Russia being attacked by the West. Similarly, the average Russian will not come at Iran's rescue if we would ever be confronted by outside powers.

Compare this to the West. People over here are willing to suffer economically and even physically because they consider Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be a grave injustice and an attack on their own values. Their governments are even at times being accused by their own populations of pussyfooting with their fickle support for Ukraine. Thousands of Westerners travelled thousands of miles to fight on Ukrainian soil against Russia's presumed deadly fighting machine, and more people would do so if their governments would order a complete mobilization.

There may be some support between China, Russia and Iran, but it isn't strategic nor are their long-standing ties that would provide a breeding ground for it.

 

[Shawnee]

Now imagine what our situation looks like on the ground with these Arteshi commanders. With horrendous quality of training and equipment. Hope we don't find out.


If I asked you back in Feb 25th, if Russia would still fail to achieve it's strategic objectives by the time it was Sept 10th, would you have called me stupid and said Russia will steamroll?

I ask this because I am 99% sure no one thought this war would be continuing by this point lets be realistic here, I certainly didn't and the front lines have largely been static for the most part.

The moment this war started many said this is a long war.

Not just me. Biden said long war. Rezai said years.

Give it some time. It will look like Syria and futile before they achieve something

 

[jauk]

Russian Armed Forces crumbling before our eyes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568592939768504320

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568587257921110016

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568579775966466049

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568579098745704449

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568579108191207428

No point denying it at this point; the West has defeated Russia.

Uh huh.

 

[Shawnee]

British spies before Russo Japanese war:
Russian army is lazy and slow.

Stalin after Russo Finnish war: Disappointing

This war is not supposed to be easier than Finnish war. The supply line is excellent. Expect another RussoFinnish war.

 

[Dariush the Great]

Ooof, that doesn't look great, seems like the front collapsed a bit, need some stabalization with reinforcements, if they have any

They are fighting against the entire Western financial, political,military apparatus. What do you expect?

Iran-Iraq war 2.0

 

[Hack-Hook]

At the start of the war Ukraine had 250x S-300 batteries. They're pretty mobile and don't take that long to setup.

the radar take 30min to 1 hour to setup on s-300, that is one reason that I scream our 15th khordad , 3rd khordad and bavar have better radars and mobility compared to s-300 and they didn't had 250 batteries , probably 250 launcher , from which around 34 was in crimea and fall into russia hand .more importantly what they had was S300-V1, Ps and Pt
the PT model is from 78, V1 from 83 and PS model from 85 . the most advance they had was one PMU1 battery that was donated to them by slovakia and was built in 1992

• 
  Ukraine – S-300PT, S-300PS, S-300PMU, S-300V1.[147] Only six systems were kept in working conditions between 2004 and 2014; as a result, only 40% of Ukrainian S-300 systems were in good condition prior to 2014.[148] Due to the war with Russia, Ukraine started repairing and pushing back to service several armaments, including several S-300 batteries,[149] with at least 4 batteries overhauled in the period of 2014–15. 34 launchers remained in Crimea after the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea.[150] Prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the country had around 100 batteries.[151][152] It received an additional battery from Slovakia in April 2022.[153]

They are fighting against the entire Western financial, political,military apparatus. What do you expect?

Iran-Iraq war 2.0

they are not fighting even against 1/10 of western capabilities. from where you get that entire part from ?

 

[TheImmortal]

This is the key.

And this goes much further than the political elite of China and Russia not willing to form a true alliance with like-minded countries. Any reluctance of these states to share the burden of confronting the West stems from a lack of shared values, historical consciousness and identity between the populations they represent. The average Chinese is not willing to suffer in the scenario of Russia being attacked by the West. Similarly, the average Russian will not come at Iran's rescue if we would ever be confronted by outside powers.

Compare this to the West. People over here are willing to suffer economically and even physically because they consider Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be a grave injustice and an attack on their own values. Their governments are even at times being accused by their own populations of pussyfooting with their fickle support for Ukraine. Thousands of Westerners travelled thousands of miles to fight on Ukrainian soil against Russia's presumed deadly fighting machine, and more people would do so if their governments would order a complete mobilization.

There may be some support between China, Russia and Iran, but it isn't strategic nor are their long-standing ties that would provide a breeding ground for it.

This is an accurate interpretation and the reason why the West will continue to be the dominant force driving the world order.

Strategic Alliances — is what the West excels at. It has NATO & the Quad & Israel/Arabs to counter Russia-China-Iran.

Russia failed at trying to take on the West by itself. Iran has managed to resist while having its economy crushed. China will soon find out this reality with its aging demographics (China’s population expected to fall by 40% by end of century — 25% of population will be over 65 by 2050) add in Chinese growth is slowing to its lowest levels (3%) in decades.

Right now the only tool Russia has left is economic pain vis a vi weaponization of natural gas.

There was a real opportunity to build a strategic alliance to challenge the world order. But Russia and China had leaders who failed to see the bigger picture and build alliances that transcended borders/cultures/and ideology. Iran was always willing to an extent, the other two thought they were powerful enough on their own.

 

[Shawnee]

British spies before Russo Japanese war:
Russian army is lazy and slow.

Stalin after Russo Finnish war: Disappointing

This war is not supposed to be easier than Finnish war. The supply line is excellent. Expect another RussoFinnish war.

Russia gained land in Finnish war.

The same army who made the slow progress in Finnish war, brought down Germany in 3 years. It was a survival war then.

Rus had another excellent win in their history. The Golden Horde win.

China had one and only excellent win in their history. Winning against Mongols.

The combination of Rus and Chinese win against mongoloids, ended the descendants of Chengiz for good.
About the same time Iranians brought down Ilkhanid Mongols.

The defacto but unwritten alliance of Iran, Russia, China has once annihilated a completely dominant superpower, the Mongol empire.

The Mongol empire owned almost the whole world and had Europe under servitude as well.

 

[Surenas]

This is an accurate interpretation and the reason why the West will continue to be the dominant force driving the world order.

Strategic Alliances — is what the West excels at. It has NATO & the Quad & Israel/Arabs to counter Russia-China-Iran.

Russia failed at trying to take on the West by itself. Iran has managed to resist while having its economy crushed. China will soon find out this reality with its aging demographics (China’s population expected to fall by 40% by end of century — 25% of population will be over 65 by 2050) add in Chinese growth is slowing to its lowest levels (3%) in decades.

Right now the only tool Russia has left is economic pain vis a vi weaponization of natural gas.

There was a real opportunity to build a strategic alliance to challenge the world order. But Russia and China had leaders who failed to see the bigger picture and build alliances that transcended borders/cultures/and ideology. Iran was always willing to an extent, the other two thought they were powerful enough on their own.

Correct.

But it goes further than China and Russia having mistakenly cherished the conviction that they were powerful enough on their own, and didn't need the likes of Iran to further advance their interests. Mind you, for all of our grievances of the West looking down on us, even the Chinese and Russian political elites have snubbed their nose at Iran in times of great need. Remember when Russia used Iran as a negotiating card with the West, even refusing to sell Iran those S-300s during a period where the force imbalance between Iran and the West/Israel was greater than now and the threat of an attack significantly higher? If it wasn't for Iran's geopolitical maturity and successes that proved it to be a force to be reckoned with, and relations between China/Russia and the West didn't deteriorate, these same political elites would still have ignored Iran's pleas for support and assistance.

In addition, the likes of China (and previously Russia) having their economies integrated with the West and the threat of sanctions hanging above their heads in case they overstep the geopolitical/strategic boundaries of the West always prevented these states to build alliances with the likes of Iran. There is no joint willingness to accept any suffering for the greater good of having an alliance, as the populations of these aforementioned states do not share any values with each other besides some joint grievances over the West' past and present imperial policy. No such thing as a collective transnational identity that bond these countries and is cemented in strong instutions that provide shared security. In addition, the likes of China, Russia and Iran are constantly under the pressure of western-influenced and instigated color revolutions, made possible by the attractiveness of the western way of life and these countries having repressive political systems, resulting in China, Iran and Russia being continuously on the back foot while the West' faces little to none threat to its own political systems (although the US is increasingly destabilizing).

I'm not sure how Russia being exposed for the paper tiger it is, will eventually impact Iran's strategic interests as it will cost Russia generations to recover from the military power and diplomacy they have burned over this conflict. Surely in places like Syria, Armenia and Central-Asia a degraded Russia will embolden the likes of Israel, Azerbaijan/Turkey and the United States to make inroads in previously off-limited sphere of influences. Iran should keep a hands on approach in these regions.