What do you mean Baghdad Bob ? The Russians are supposed to outnumber the Ukrainians 3 to 1. They are outnumbered 3 to 1 and have been since the start. Despite this they have been able to take 20% of Ukraine's territory.
The issue is that they went into Ukraine thinking that the government and army would fold. They tried to replicate what they did in Crimea. The intelligence was way off. Not only Russian intelligence though. The majority in the US intelligence community also believed that Kiev would fall in 3 days. Bad intelligence can lead to disastrous consequences just like what happened to the US in Afghanistan recently.
Realistically though, even 200,000 troops for 1400 KM makes no sense. Again the Americans had 370,000 troops for a front that was 200-300 KM wide at most. Also Iraq after the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf war and 12 years of relentless bombings and sanctions was weak and depleted and Americans had absolute air superiority.
Anyways looking at this from a historical perspective, the Soviets struggled for a years to take Ukraine. It wasn't a straight forward affair. There were alot of ups and downs. At one point the Soviet Union had to give up massive chunks of territory in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
This war isn't even close to over. If the Ukrainians were able to decisively defeat the Russians, like encircle and annihilate a large army group, then that would be a different story, In the last few days the Ukrainians simply outmaneuvered the Russians and caught them by surprise with numbers and mobility. Once the Russians draw a line in the sand and engage the Ukrainians face to face then we'll get a better idea of what the future holds.
I misspoke, they had 120-130 BTGs at the start of the invasion. Which assuming BTG = 1000 troops that would mean a force of 130K. If they have 20K casualties using the 3:1 KIA to WIa rule than they have 60K wounded so 80K total. That would mean there is 50K troops in Ukraine right now....impossible
Hence why I think they injected more troops as the war went on.
I didn’t say they have 300K in Ukraine right now. I said they have ~200K. The rest are troops on rest, incapable units, deaths, casualties, etc. (~100K)
Ukraine stopped a top 5 largest military power in the world. It doesn’t matter if it was with NATO aid or Jesus himself sent archangels to fight alongside Ukrainian troops. The end result is the same—Russian failure on historical levels. This war will be taught around the world for decades in military academy’s and training facilities of what not to do as an invasion force.
Russia has a fraction of the power of old Soviet Union. You forget how massive of a military and how many nations fought for Soviet Union.
No it’s not ‘remarkable’ that Russia was able to take literally one major province (Luchnask) and Mariupol and parts of a few others.
It seems you are doing your best Baghdad Bob impression.
You know why Iran won in Syria? Because of boots on the ground and mobilizing capable forces that followed orders and adapted to the situation. Granted Iran and It’s allies made ALOT of mistakes during that war, some boneheaded ones (Battle of Al-Eis and Battle of Morek) but overall they progressed very well because their high command and commanders were capable. Their officers followed orders and adapted to situation.
Russia does not have capable boots on the ground nor capable officers nor capable commanders.
Hell Russia doesn’t even have one Tiger Force like Commander to rally the troops and military to give hope. Not one single notable commander that gets results done when others cannot.
Syria had Tiger Force Commander and the Druze Commander and his Special forces that held Dier Ez Zor for years surrounded. Two well known commanders throughout the war.
But how can Russian AWACS or infared pods find Ukrainian air defense systems if they're not even turned on ? They're dispersed and they hide them in the most unexpected places. Anywhere from a large house garage, a barn, in the forest, in an industrial garage.
Then when they receive intel, they come out, engage the target and some missiles can track the target by themselves after a certain point so in some cases they're only active for 10-20 minutes then they go back into hiding. So they're not that easy to find. It even took the US months to find all the Iraqi SCUD batteries in the first Gulf War. That was in the middle of the desert. Of course technology has progressed alot since then but still.
I really think that a few hundred Iranian drones, including loitering munitions, could help the Russians alot, because they could effectively saturate the airspace. Military leaders are hesitant to lose a 50 million dollar jet and its pilot but with a $100,000 loitering munition or $2 million dollar UAV who cares as long as you destroy vital enemy targets.
Russia have AWACS of its own and Ukraine still manage to fly helicopters and airplanes .
also that hiding is overrated , the infra red camera on pods is exactly have the duty of finding such hidden assets and Russia must have destroyed them as primary target in first weeks of the war before NATO get involved
honestly i cant understand it how much it take to destroy a tank when you want to abandon it, fully loaded with ammunition.
