Iranian Chill Thread

[jauk]

Driving around in up armoured vehicles means “battle is lost”?

Someone should inform every major military power in the world that protects their personnel (diplomats and military) that way.

The island boys forget that up to early 2000’s there was soldiers on every corner of Tehran. Even today you can find soldiers in sensitive areas in cities standing watch.

Driving around in 1980’s era Peugeots (Western car) is fine though. Makes sense.

Wonderful conventional thinking. Boy da badddd and boiled eggs all around!

No one is talking about militarization of the street. Please read again carefully what we are discussing.

But we are. Please elaborate if otherwise. If not streets then where?

 

[SalarHaqq]

Armed men in Ukrainian uniforms, possibly Isra"el"i volunteers, speaking in Hebrew and declaring war on Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518285061199740934

 

[_Nabil_]

Police Kill Leopard Stranded In Northern Iranian City

A leopard was shot dead in the northern Iranian city of Ghaemshahr in Iran on Sunday after attacking and injuring a policeman.

www.google.com

Really sad to kill an endangered specie, doesn't they have sedative cartridge???

 

[SalarHaqq]

Optimistic guesses based on nothing but pure conjecture on my part would put Iranian PGM stocks in the high-thousands amongst all weapon types collectively:

• cruise missiles
• ballistic missiles
• drones
• precision guided rocket-artillery
• guided traditional artillery (Iranian KRASNOPOL)
• air launched munitions (gravity, glide and motor-assisted)
• modern guided torpedoes etc.

Iran either knows exactly what it is doing in this regard and plans on amassing 10,000+ stock of missiles soon or it has already done so (somehow) and we're just spit-balling as to how many IRGC/Artesh have in totality and whether or not this a winning strategy which I don't think it is.

PGMs are an important part of modern warfare but they don't outright win wars on their own. A conflagration between Iran-VS-Israel or the puppet PGCC states would bear a lot fruit but a sustained conflict of any type will put massive strain on Iran's traditional military when stocks inevitably start to run low and reliance on more legacy wartime assets becomes heavier. Always scared me as to what Iran plans to exactly do when all those missiles start to run dangerously low and the enemy has adjusted to their use in combat.

I've had this... one would call it childish fantasy that Iran has been producing thousands of missiles a year and their are literally tens-of-thousands of BMs ready to go but any logical take on the matter would quickly temper such lofty expectations, even for a country like Iran which has doctrinal requirements centered around the national streamlined production of missiles.

I mean... the time, space, safety precautions, resources, methods of firing, etc. Needed to make the most out of those missiles would need to be something amazing. Iranian's are naturally gifted mathematicians and brilliant engineers, so I hope they've figured out a way which it seems like they may have to some extent.

Anyways... I'm rambling. Iran still needs good ISR capabilities to make the best use out of those weapons anyways lol.

Iran probably has much more than 20.000 ballistic missiles in store. I trust Patarames far more than any other source (especially those with a tendency to rehash NATO propaganda) on this, and what he was suggesting as of late is that the BM arsenal meanwhile is in the tens of thousands of units.

Drones probably in the thousands, we saw production figures from many years ago on that photographed poster, just use this as a basis and extrapolate a rational guess.

Iran has enough to pulverize strategic key assets of any aggressor several times over, including and especially the US regime plus all its allies.

Of course in ten, twenty, thirty years from now, when Iran will be as safe as ever from military aggression, the anti-IR crowd will still be seen nagging and issuing more of the same baseless alarmist drivel, while their audience will have forgotten how wrong these elements have been all the time.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran probably has much, much more than 20.000 ballistic missiles in store. I trust Patarames far more than any other source (especially those with a tendency to rehash NATO propaganda) on this, and what he was suggesting as of late is that the BM arsenal meanwhile is no longer in the tens but in the hundreds of thousands of units. I revised my estimate accordingly.

He never suggested hundreds of thousands.

This is the exact tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480190198143148042

That is how much space 80 Qiam bodies take up without the rest of the missile. Now imagine “hundreds” of thousands. The issue besides a absurdly high rate of production, is secure and safe storage for “hundreds” of thousands of missiles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480908668036169728

Let’s imagine shall we. Lets say that Iran can build 80 Qiam a week which in any military would be extremely impressive.

That is 320 missiles a month x 12 months x 12 years = 46K missiles. Assuming the same rate of production for the Shahab-3 line and Fateh-110 line. And you will be around 125K+ missiles.

That’s assuming Iran builds 240 missiles a week nonstop for past 12 years.

So “hundreds of thousands” is beyond unrealistic. But believe what you will, you are already far down the rabbit hole.

 

[Shawnee]

He never suggested hundreds of thousands.

This is the exact tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480190198143148042

That is how much space 80 Qiam bodies take up without the rest of the missile. Now imagine “hundreds” of thousands. The issue besides a absurdly high rate of production, is secure and safe storage for “hundreds” of thousands of missiles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480908668036169728

Let’s imagine shall we. Lets say that Iran can build 80 Qiam a week which in any military would be extremely impressive.

That is 320 missiles a month x 12 months x 12 years = 46K missiles. Assuming the same rate of production for the Shahab-3 line and Fateh-110 line. And you will be around 125K+ missiles.

That’s assuming Iran builds 240 missiles a week nonstop for past 12 years.

So “hundreds of thousands” is beyond unrealistic. But believe what you will, you are already far down the rabbit hole.

You know that crushed Soviet Union made 5000 plus tanks in WWII in a short time. Correct?

 

[SalarHaqq]

The biggest threat to the Islamic Revolution is no longer the US or Israel. It's the increasing secularism in Iran. If Iran can play the long game then so can it's enemies.

The non-military threat is certainly paramount, but at the same time I would caution against taking at face value the kind of "reports" you'll find in mainstream (read: western-zionist) media on the topic.

For here too, I can see signs of the enemy shooting itself in the foot. The enemy's grand strategy against Iran is following the motto "throw all you can at them, something's going to stick" (to paraphrase a neoconservative zionist at the "American Enterprise Institute"), and this is bound to be fraught with too many self-contradictory and mutually neutralizing effects.

As an example, the enemy through its liberal fifth column is insisting on continued anti-natalist policies despite the fact that Iran has reached a deficit in natality which according to every serious expert in demographic studies, including western ones, is potential fatal to a nation and can only be compensated by mass immigration if not immediately reversed. The first victim of such a trend is in fact the economy, contrary to the flawed argumentation put forth by liberals. Now, whilst this is indeed an urgent existential threat to Iran as a whole, ironically the liberal strata of the population are most affected: the more secular minded they are, the less they breed. So, despite the fact that the dilemma has crept into religious parts of Iranian society as well, the latter are significantly less concerned by it than the secularized, liberal ones. Net result: the proportion of secularists relative to religious folk is decreasing.

Secondly, the Islamic Republic's institutional system is fool proof. It was devised by what can only be viewed as political geniuses who really thought through every conceivable short and long term threat to its survival, including when it comes to infiltration and subversion from within.

Thirdly, one may counter that such a institutionally steadfast system will still be exposed to the risks of popular upheaval if and when the percentage of citizens with completely opposite beliefs surpasses a certain threshold. However, I am of the conviction that the liberal, secularized crowd is and will be incapable of structured, decisive political mobilization. The assessment is grounded in an examination of said crowd's social and psychological consistency. And it is, once more, an involuntary result of the enemy's strategy against Iran. After all, secular lifestyle is known to be one of infinite sadness and hollow aimlessness, a primordially necrophiliac existence in the Jungian sense (that which Carl Jung actually rejected), which may only be compensated by what Brzezinsky advocated to keep the masses busy with (the infamous "tittytainment"). Populations subjected to this condition will be increasingly zombified nonetheless. And zombification implies lacking impulse in terms of sustained political mobilization, the kind of which would be required to overthrow a political order with rock solid foundations such as the Islamic Republic.

Just have a look at contemporary secularized Iranians: they are a permanently frustrated, enraged, anxious and/or depressed bunch, more often than not deeply ill-mannered (little to no akhlaq, little to no shakhsiat), often displaying rampant cynicism, and widely suffering from variable degrees of psychological imbalance. Other than the devastating impact of secularist thought and lifestyle, they are furthermore subjected to the endless morbidity cultivated in their minds by the enemy's massive psy-ops campaign. They are therefore a species that is gradually disappearing from the political scene, insofar as no ground breaking political initiative can be expected from them. Contrast this with the vital force, the essential serenity and confidence which religious people in the traditional sense are generally endowed with. In a showdown between the two groups, this inherent advantage will make up for any disparity in numbers, as we've already had the pleasure to witness on several occasions in Islamic Iran.

Lastly, the enemy is on a downward slope. The zio-American empire has entered its phase of decline, whereas the Islamic Revolution has only just begun. Let them play the long game, time is not on their side.

 

[Stryker1982]

He never suggested hundreds of thousands.

This is the exact tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480190198143148042

That is how much space 80 Qiam bodies take up without the rest of the missile. Now imagine “hundreds” of thousands. The issue besides a absurdly high rate of production, is secure and safe storage for “hundreds” of thousands of missiles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480908668036169728

Let’s imagine shall we. Lets say that Iran can build 80 Qiam a week which in any military would be extremely impressive.

That is 320 missiles a month x 12 months x 12 years = 46K missiles. Assuming the same rate of production for the Shahab-3 line and Fateh-110 line. And you will be around 125K+ missiles.

That’s assuming Iran builds 240 missiles a week nonstop for past 12 years.

So “hundreds of thousands” is beyond unrealistic. But believe what you will, you are already far down the rabbit hole.

A facility that can cast 80 Qiam bodies and have a separate but large enough assembly hall that can assemble 80 Qiams bodies, warheads and associate parts together per week would have to be insane massive, and very impressive capability. A capability I simply don't think is possible. Unless we are just talking about the bodies and engines, and the warheads are slower process.

We know Iran has heavily invested in the missile industry so having a large production capacity is to be expect relative to other nations, and if they have facilities and skilled workers that can operate at this speed it would incredible but I don't think it would this fast. Unless we have pictures of all the facilities associated with the project to judge its scale.

If you told me 80 Qiams per month, that is believable to me, especially seeing how billions have been invested in this industry. A simple calculation would say in about 6 years with 80 a month, you'd have 5760 that's alot of long range missiles and It's reasonable. In 10 years? -> 9600.

You know that crushed Soviet Union made 5000 plus tanks in WWII in a short time. Correct?

Not reasonable to compare simple 1940s all mechanical tanks with todays equipment.

 

[TheImmortal]

It was tens of thousands indeed, but that still runs counter to your statement.

I guess this is as close we are getting to you saying “I was wrong” when you claimed Patarames implied hundreds of thousands of missiles production. But of course you brush that off. Also you avoid the mathematical logistics breakdown of the rest of post where i address other missiles. Pick and choose what you want to respond too.

Back to avoiding engaging with you until you start taking your meds again.

You know that crushed Soviet Union made 5000 plus tanks in WWII in a short time. Correct?

Completely irrelevant to the topic at hand. You just say bizarre things sometimes.

Since you want to talk about random production rates during WW2...Allies also produced the following during WW2

Aircraft carriers	155
Battleships	13
Cruisers	82
Destroyers	814
Convoy escorts	1,102
Submarines	422

And yet now it can take the US on average 4 years to produce a single destroyer and up to a decade to produce a single aircraft carrier.

You should familiarize yourself with a wartime economy and its potential rate of production in one of the greatest wars in human history.

Trying to extrapolate that since Soviet Union built thousands of tanks during WW2 means Iran can build hundreds of thousands of missiles is a far reach outside of a logical conversation. Why stop there, Apple produces millions of IPhones a year, so Iran should be able to produce tens of millions of air defense systems.

 

[mohsen]

Many inscriptions on the stone mention Cyrus the great. Pasargad inscriptions say his name. Every single old historian such as Xenophon and Herodotus say his name.

Purim is a myth with no proven document from any historian and overemphasis that came from Raefipour lectures.

Purim was killing of people of Babel apparently .

The only inscription which has ever mentioned this name Cyrus is that fake mud-based Cylinder which was found in Iraq by British, very coincidentally when Pahlavi planned to change the Islamic culture of Iranian with his western BS (thus the western instruction of the mud). Herodotus book about Cyrus was discovered at the same time, well, 100% coincidentally, and then a building was named the tomb of Cyrus!! and Pasargad was built based on the descriptions of the book!!! Pictures of it's construction are still available, pictures of added inscriptions on flat stones are available!

 

[SalarHaqq]

Yes CIA also killed Imam Ali and Imam Hussein using a time machine to frame Sunnis and start a over thousand year religious divide.

These white men are very cunning

No, the CIA, Mossad and MI6 are "innocent", they have "never" had the stirring of communal divisions on their agenda.

The Rothschild- and Sassoon-funded British empire played absolutely "no" role in the genesis of the Bahai fitna in Iran. Lawrence and his ilk had "no" hand in the rise of the Saudi regime and wahhabism.

Takfiri terrorists in Syria "weren't" sponsored by NATO and the zionists. That the west for years closed its eyes to "I"SIS propaganda on social media, as well as to thousands of volunteers traveling to Syria unhindered, and then suddenly stepped in to settle in regions which otherwise would also have been liberated by the Resistance (e.g. Mosul), is merely a "coincidence".

Seymour Hersh, Pullitzer prize winner who had lifted the veil on the My Lai massacre of Vietnamese villagers at the hands of US troops, was having a temporary "fit of delirium" when he exposed, based on insider sources, the US regime's strategy of relying on sectarianist maniacs to break the Axis of Resistance.

_____

The Redirection​

Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?
By Seymour M. Hersh
February 25, 2007

The Redirection

Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?

www.newyorker.com

_____

No, the CIA did "not" cultivate extremists to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. This is all "just propaganda" by Basijis against "poor, well-meaning" America and Isra"el".

No, the sectarianist Shirazi clan's multiple satellite broadcasters "aren't" benefiting from western funding. Raising such sums is totally common for a rather marginal marja. Yaser al-Habib being based in London and associating anti-Sunni drivel with attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran... an "unfortunate accident", nothing more.

- - - - -

As Taliban drive around in a convoy of armoured Humvees. Even sandal baboons have better equipment than our border guards.

Taleban driving around in "a convoy of armoured Humvees":

No, really. There's two meters of composite armour beneath those bodyworks. "TheImmortal" will vouch for that, just ask him.

 

[Shawnee]

The only inscription which has ever mentioned this name Cyrus is that fake mud-based Cylinder which was found in Iraq by British, very coincidentally when Pahlavi planned to change the Islamic culture of Iranian with his western BS (thus the western instruction of the mud). Herodotus book about Cyrus was discovered at the same time, well, 100% coincidentally, and then a building was named the tomb of Cyrus!! and Pasargad was built based on the descriptions of the book!!! Pictures of it's construction are still available, pictures of added inscriptions on flat stones are available!

So that fake mud thing is the only inscription?

Pasargad has Cyrus name multiple times.

I guess this is as close we are getting to you saying “I was wrong” when you claimed Patarames implied hundreds of thousands of missiles production. But of course you brush that off. Also you avoid the mathematical logistics breakdown of the rest of post where i address other missiles. Pick and choose what you want to respond too.

Back to avoiding engaging with you until you start taking your meds again.



Completely irrelevant to the topic at hand. You just say bizarre things sometimes.

Since you want to talk about random production rates during WW2...Allies also produced the following during WW2

Aircraft carriers	155
Battleships	13
Cruisers	82
Destroyers	814
Convoy escorts	1,102
Submarines	422

And yet now it can take the US on average 4 years to produce a single destroyer and up to a decade to produce a single aircraft carrier.

You should familiarize yourself with a wartime economy and its potential rate of production in one of the greatest wars in human history.

Trying to extrapolate that since Soviet Union built thousands of tanks during WW2 means Iran can build hundreds of thousands of missiles is a far reach outside of a logical conversation. Why stop there, Apple produces millions of IPhones a year, so Iran should be able to produce tens of millions of air defense systems.

What is matters is not having hundreds of thousands of missiles ready but to have the required items to produce tens of thousands in a short time while you are using your arsenal. The arsenal is again tens of thousands of different missiles with no doubt. @TheImmortal

Between the historical knowledge of Mohsen and your military thought process, I am getting depressed.

Let’s wait and see whose military expectation will prove right on April 2023 about Ukraine developments.

That is an objective and fair assessment.

 

[SalarHaqq]

He never suggested hundreds of thousands.

This is the exact tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480190198143148042

That is how much space 80 Qiam bodies take up without the rest of the missile. Now imagine “hundreds” of thousands. The issue besides a absurdly high rate of production, is secure and safe storage for “hundreds” of thousands of missiles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480908668036169728

Let’s imagine shall we. Lets say that Iran can build 80 Qiam a week which in any military would be extremely impressive.

That is 320 missiles a month x 12 months x 12 years = 46K missiles. Assuming the same rate of production for the Shahab-3 line and Fateh-110 line. And you will be around 125K+ missiles.

That’s assuming Iran builds 240 missiles a week nonstop for past 12 years.

So “hundreds of thousands” is beyond unrealistic. But believe what you will, you are already far down the rabbit hole.

My sober prediction: We are not talking about 100s, not 1000s but beyond such quantities.

This suggests tens of thousands - of just one type of ballistic missile in production.

Any thoughts that Iran has more than 20-25K guided ballistic missiles seems unrealistic, until evidence comes out to the contrary.

I will go with the Tweet I referenced. Far more reliable than the hollow ramblings of a zio-American apologist.

I guess this is as close we are getting to you saying “I was wrong” when you claimed Patarames implied hundreds of thousands of missiles production. But of course you brush that off. Also you avoid the mathematical logistics breakdown of the rest of post where i address other missiles. Pick and choose what you want to respond too.

That breakdown runs counter to every assessment you made on the number of Iranian missiles. So yes, by all means, acceptable breakdown. Kudos.

Not long ago, you were claiming Iran is fielding "less than 10.000 BM's". Now, given mounting indications to the contrary including estimates from actually trustworthy analysts, you're shifting to "less than 20-25.000 BM's". At least you're making some incremental progress. At this pace, soon there won't be any room left for you to minimize Iran's prowess, hahaha. We'll keep guiding you into that direction.

Back to avoiding engaging with you until you start taking your meds again.

What a joke of a projection. Waiting for your next self-contradiction in terms, can't be too far away.

 

[Shawnee]

In his inscriptions from Pasargadae Cyrus declared “I am Kūruš the king, an Achaemenid,” “Kūruš, the great king, an Achaemenid,” or “Kūruš”, the great king, son of Kambūjiya the king, an Achaemenid” (Kent, Old Persian, p. 116; cf. Nylander).

@mohsen

 

[Shawnee]

This suggests tens of thousands - of just one type of ballistic missile in production.



I will go with ther Tweet I referenced. Much more reliable source than a zio-American apologist.






A

Pataramesh is implying tens of thousands. Salar is right.

You may disagree with Pataremesh and me and salar of course.