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Iranian Chill Thread


Pro-Russian sources saying around 23K Ukrainian troops have been killed. Number seems plausible given the destruction across Ukraine.

I was thinking 15K+ PLUS however much end up dying in Mariupol.

Zelenksy was on propaganda rant saying only 2-3K....which is a joke. 250+ servicemen died in one air raid on barracks in the beginning of the war plus the air raid on NATO training facility.


7th* not 8th. One was contradicted by video evidence.

After this is all done, the real number of Ukraine will eventually be revealed. If you look at twitter sources, you'd think thier wasn't 1 casualty
 
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Pro-Russian sources saying around 23K Ukrainian troops have been killed. Number seems plausible given the destruction across Ukraine.

I was thinking 15K+ PLUS however much end up dying in Mariupol.

Zelenksy was on propaganda rant saying only 2-3K....which is a joke. 250+ servicemen died in one air raid on barracks in the beginning of the war plus the air raid on NATO training facility.


7th* not 8th. One was contradicted by video evidence.



I was actually one of the people who believed that Kiyev would fall within a week.
Russia was advancing very fast, creating pockets in the northern front, the eastern front and the southern front every day.
It was only a matter of days before the eastern front would've joined the northern front to enforce a complete siege on Kiev.
However, it seems that the Russians have lost this war.

This war has been such a huge embarrassment for Russia.
Putin's only remaining hope is to make Ukraine a landlocked country.
And seeing the current ongoing situation, I doubt Russia could secure Odessa.
Otherwise Russia will never be taken as anything more than a joke in the world.

It is important not to be biased toward either side. It is going to be a long war.
 
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Behold this: in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election held last weekend, candidates more or less critical of the prevailing liberal order, more or less skeptical of NATO and not really in line with the ongoing anti-Russian rabble rousing, have received an absolute majority of votes!

Marine Le Pen (far right) = 23,15%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (left) = 21,95%
Eric Zemmour (islamophobic zionist far-right) = 7,07%
Jean Lassalle (independent) = 3,13%
Fabien Roussel (Communist Party of France) = 2,28%
Philippe Poutou (Trotskyist left) = 0,77%
Nathalie Arthaud (Trotskyist left) = 0,56%

Added total = 58,91% !!!

In short, people of France are rejecting the ruling, secular liberal (pseudo-)democratic regime and its dominant elites like never before. Just beautiful. And meanwhile, some gullible ones in Iran are still letting themselves be fooled by domestic liberals (reformists, moderates) into believing that this failed system promoted by western imperialists is the be-all and end-all, not realizing how lucky they are to have an Islamic Republic and Velayate Faqih.
don't read too much in it , it all about economy , as Iran election also all was about economy ,
 
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This should put into perspective how much “ammo” countries stockpile. We sometimes hear wild claims that X country has X many missiles or this or that.

Reality is countries don’t continuously produce armaments unless in war time scenarios. Because cost of storage and transportation is significant.
 
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One of Russia's objectives was to prevent Ukraine from acquiring nuclear weapons. Chernobyl was right on the border, therefore it only made sense to go for it. At the start even some western analysts were predicting that the Kiev government would fall in days, so going for Kiev seemed like the logical thing to do.

It's easy to rant after the fact and act like an arm chair general but come on, if there had been no threat from the north then Kiev could have focused it's troops in the south. Yes Russia could have targeted concentrations of troops but realistically troops can disperse and it's difficult to target every single team that splits up on foot to ambush or raid your own troops.

Russians are claiming Mariupol has been liberated. Only the Azov battalion is still holding out, hiding in underground tunnels at the Azovstal plant. Russia has given them an ultimatum, surrender or die.

In the last few weeks Russia has been gathering forces in the east for a new push there. They haven't even begun their new offensive but they're still making progress in the east of Ukraine.

After Mariupol is fully liberated, that will free up atleast 5000 Russian and allied troops. Those troops along with the reinforcements I'm pretty sure should be able to take Donestk region quite easily.

The Lugansk region has been almost fully liberated, more than 95%. The Donestk region, if they can liberate that and if Kramatorsk falls then they have a few options.

They can either just keep bombing Ukrainian targets and defend the territory they've taken

From Donestk head further west and try to take Dnipro city.

Extending west from Donestk they can also head north on the highways and surround Kharkiv completely.

Odessa is another option if they want a land bridge to Transnistria (Moldova)

Of course the Russian's would prefer a negotiated settlement in order to end this war, but with the west constantly flooding Ukraine with weapons, I don't think the Ukrainians will be ready to negotiate in good faith until they've had a chance to go on an offensive with their new toys to try and liberate eastern Ukraine.

I'm guessing that any such Ukrainian offensive attempt would fail miserably but with the huge western propaganda push making Ukrainians believe that they're winning the war and that they can actually win the war, along with the weapons, it seems that the Kiev government won't stop until they've been dealt a very decisive and devastating blow.

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Odessa?

They would be lucky if they can keep Kherson. They have been pushed back on the Kherson front and are devoting resources to hold Kherson.

Odessa is a pipe dream at this point especially with loss of Maskava. The war plan was awful. They should have pushed from Crimea-Kharkv-Donbass axis. No northern Axis. They could have done SOF operations and bombing raids in the North to pin forces.

People say “oh well then Ukraine would have concentrated forces on those fronts”. That’s GREAT! This is Russia with 400+ fighters and Blackjack bombers that can drop truckloads of ordnances. This isn’t SAA with a rust bucket airforce.

If Ukraine stacked the defense line Russia would be obliterating brigades from the air and by artillery. The defense lines would have collapsed much faster.

Instead Putin stretched his forces way too thin. Only reason he is even taking Mariupol is do to Chechens doing all the leg work

 
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don't read too much in it , it all about economy , as Iran election also all was about economy ,

There is deep loss of confidence of the citizenry in the political system of the west, and reasons for that go well beyond economic conjuncture. In most western European countries political apathy has been a much discussed issue for at least three decades, and the tendency hasn't ceased amplifying.

Political institutions are losing their efficacy and legitimacy, trust in the elites has been crumbling, social movements are growing and increasingly taking aim at the foundations of the system (the Yellow Vests were demanding fundamental systemic remodeling, direct democracy and so on, not just a revision of specific governmental policy measures), so-called populist movements are on a steady rise, and so is communalism as well as incivility.

In France, according to a survey conducted by a notable research institute, 70% of citizens are of the opinion that democracy does not function well. Contrary to previous periods, they no longer consider policies by this or that administration, but the system itself as the primary cause for hardships.

There is abundant academic research on the topic, and it definitely points to a crisis of legitimacy rather than momentary discontent induced by economic downturns.





https://www.institutegreatereurope.com/single-post/2019/04/11/lunion-européenne-et-sa-crise-de-légitimité

 
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There is deep loss of confidence of the citizenry in the political system of the west, and reasons for that go well beyond economic conjuncture. In most western European countries political apathy has been a much discussed issue for at least three decades, and the tendency hasn't ceased amplifying.

Political institutions are losing their efficacy and legitimacy, trust in the elites has been crumbling, social movements are growing and increasingly taking aim at the foundations of the system (the Yellow Vests were demanding fundamental systemic remodeling, direct democracy and so on, not just a revision of specific governmental policy measures), so-called populist movements are on a steady rise, and so is communalism as well as incivility.

In France, according to a survey conducted by a notable research institute, 70% of citizens are of the opinion that democracy does not function well. Contrary to previous periods, they no longer consider policies by this or that administration, but the system itself as the primary cause for hardships.

There is abundant academic research on the topic, and it definitely points to a crisis of legitimacy rather than momentary discontent induced by economic downturns.





https://www.institutegreatereurope.com/single-post/2019/04/11/lunion-européenne-et-sa-crise-de-légitimité


Breaking news: Governments across the political ideology spectrum are not popular

You don’t need to write a short novel to describe an obvious event.

All forms of government these days are corrupt in one shape or form as well as inefficient as the electors (politicians) struggle to hold power against rivals.

But the alternative to government is anarchy. Since that isn’t a better option, people just stop voting knowing outing one crook will bring in another crook. Hence why voter turnout has been dropping in many countries. Wether democratic or authoritarian is irrelevant. The citizens have realized change just doesn’t happen anymore and governments are brutally inefficient at meeting their needs.
 
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Russia says Israel turned Gaza Strip into 'a prison under open sky'

Foreign Ministry slams Israel's illegal occupation, ‘creeping annexation’ of Palestinian territories

09:17 April 16, 2022 AA

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/...za-strip-into-a-prison-under-open-sky-3593860

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This is while the NATO-controlled Ukrainian regime is increasingly presenting the zionist occupation entity as its role model.

Zelenskyy says wants Ukraine to become a ‘big Israel’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the main issue for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion ends will be security.

5 Apr 2022


Zelensky: Jerusalem is 'constructive place' to hold Russia-Ukraine talks

By TOVAH LAZAROFF AND LAHAV HARKOV AND REUTERS - Mar 12

 
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Breaking news: Governments across the political ideology spectrum are not popular

You don’t need to write a short novel to describe an obvious event.

All forms of government these days are corrupt in one shape or form as well as inefficient as the electors (politicians) struggle to hold power against rivals.

"Breaking news" indeed, since this is certainly the first time I'm being confronted with the far-reaching, generic and rather daring theory that "governments these days aren't popular" plain and simple... But wrong, in fact. It certainly depends on which government, because popularity strongly varies from one example to another, as any comparative empirical analysis will yield.

The Russian government for instance has continuously proved to be highly popular among its constituency for the past couple of decades. President Vladimirovich Putin's approval rate, which jumped from around 65% to over 80% since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, has been the envy of western leaders.

Besides, popularity and legitimacy aren't exactly identical concepts.

But the alternative to government is anarchy. Since that isn’t a better option, people just stop voting knowing outing one crook will bring in another crook. Hence why voter turnout has been dropping in many countries. Wether democratic or authoritarian is irrelevant. The citizens have realized change just doesn’t happen anymore and governments are brutally inefficient at meeting their needs.

Some political systems do enjoy a significant degree of legitimation in this day and age. There's no general rule in this regard. Nor is there any widely accepted finding that governance is destined to be corrupt and inefficient today. Tall claims like these cannot be tailored on the go, they've got to be based on concrete data and lots of methodical work to be taken seriously.

Actually it's the opposite that happens to have been established, since it was shown indeed that where there's crisis of legitimation, causes may vary considerably. Political apathy in liberal "democracies" isn't grounded in the exact same factors as political apathy in other types of systems. Causes also show qualitative differences in developed and developing nations.

I very much doubt that scholars of political science who're arriving at these conclusions, are going to waste humongous space equivalent to thousands of articles and books just to "describe an obvious event".

Yet another very interesting looking paper:

Walden Bello, The Global Crisis of Legitimacy of Liberal Democracy, in Globalization and the Washington Consensus: Its Influence on Democracy and Development in the South, Gladys Lechini (editor), Buenos Aires , CLACSO (Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales), 2008.


Like the previously cited ones, the above work is focusing on liberal "democracies". Its demonstrations and conclusions are case-specific and don't apply to just any contemporary political system and government.

Conclusion: we're witnessing a crisis of legitimacy characteristic of liberal and secular so-called democracy. It's not a general characteristic of our contemporary era and doesn't affect every state invariably. This has been illustrated beyond a doubt by ample and valuable scientific research.
 
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