SalarHaqq
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Wouldn't it also be fair to also acknowledge that the war is still quite young? A month and a-half in is hardly enough time to come to a definitive conclusion on what the eventual outcome will be. I'm of the opinion that RuAF have still yet go full-tilt against Ukraine. We just saw a small glimpse of it in Azovstal where TU-22m3 carpet bombed a large portion of the plant. There was also a recent massive PGM strike all across Ukraine and the Illyich Plant was fully liberated (or defeated). A recent push out of Azovstal was also demolished along-side thousands of Ukrainian troops surrendering.
The holdings in the North and around Kiev were a strategic feint meant to divide Ukrainian focus on two fronts rather that just on the Donbass where Russia's most immediate concerns are currently. At least this is my understanding (or cope) of what happened lol.
There have been rumors that the Russian Federation might activate CSTO and call upon member states to send troops along with a general full-mobilization order in Russia itself following a formal declaration of war against Ukraine.
It's clear that NATO training, equipment, ISR sharing with UKR-forces has proven indispensable in their combat effectiveness and severe Russian weaknesses have been revealed. How telling this is of an eventual Russian defeat, idk.
The loss of the Moskva along with other countless blunders still is embarrassing and points to issues within both Russian command and planning. No argument there whatsoever.
Allow me resort to a metaphor based on the game of football (which I actually have deep reservations about, but for argument's sake).
Imagine a team composed of complete amateurs, none of whom really knows how to play, going up against one of the world's top national formations, say Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Italy. The amateur team decides to concentrate their 10 outfielders inside the penalty area and even along the goal line for the entire duration of the match. They won't be able to perform a single attack, will not display any intricate tactics nor any maneuvers, will not even pass the ball to each other across the playing field.
The world class team for its part will find that the human wall erected in front of the adversary's goal is hampering normal game play and that piercing it is relatively laborious although not exactly difficult. The whole thing will generate a misleading impression that the amateur team is successfully resisting the onslaught. But naturally, it falls short of reversing the two teams' respective fortunes. For in the end, all it does is to reduce the score by which the amateurs are inevitably going to lose. Instead of getting beaten 0:80, they might then take merely 5 or 10 goals.
This is a reflection of what the Ukrainian side, under instructions from the US, is practicing in this conflict. Nothing to write home about, but media-effective for sure. And definitely not going to stop nor even indent the Russian juggernaut. What the Ukrainian military showed in essence, is that is doesn't really know how to stage a proper fight under contemporary parameters. And NATO, that they are no longer capable of devising effective tactics nor to empower proxies against peer-level adversaries.
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