Iranian Chill Thread

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497697749357236224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497697750397460484

 

[rmi5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497605828941164546

War is only bad if it's the Euros that are dying.

& CBS is supposedly a progressive anti-racist inter-sectionalist "News" channel, who cares about minorities. Well, look how fast he showed his other side of a colonialist propagandist bourgeoisie who wants to sound nice, act civilized! lol

JCPOA is going to be revived and it is every bit as bad as it was before apparently.

Yup, it was always about who makes the deal with the west, not the content of it. One needs to have content, character, nationalism to care about the latter. BOTH Osoul gara's, Eslaah Talab's concenrs is regarding who's going to sign the deal with west, receives benefits. For years, Iranians were always angered about Russians/Chinese not giving them sensitive technologies, don't consider them as allies, giving cold shoulder to Raeisi, Ghalibaf in their visits to Moscow; well, now, you know why Russians don't take them seriously, right? That being said, there are still uncorrupted people left in Iran, they need to act before it gets too late.

people who are against nuclear Iran , are generally against "Iran" as whole

You will find them in the ultra religious camp. They are enemies of Iran. Must be arrested and tried for treason.

I don't know you Darius, but if I remember correctly, Twilight, who was one of the few Iranians here, except for me&mohsen, who wasn't dancing around when JCPOA was signed. Everybody else, including the most hardcore basijis, were dancing around back then. Mohsen was a hardcore Velayat e faqih basiji, Twilight was a pro-mostaz'afin/true khomeinist/anti imperialist, I'm a secular, living in US for the half of my life. we are three very different individuals. It wasn't about religion to see the flaws of the deal, it was about caring enough about your country to read what's written in the deal, it's implications for Iran, knowing world politics, so on. Everybody else was happy that there will be more money pouring into Iran; thus, probably for them, them being accepted by blue-eyed westerners. I hear you saying that the fish rots from the head down, but what's the alternative? Fighting islam & the IR, while Iran is under nuclear threat from the west/Pakistan, soon from Wahabis, the Iranian culture being adulterated, people are welcoming degeneracy? The only option for us is supporting uncorrupted officials within IR, like Seyed Mahmoud Nabavian, who care about their country, educating our fellow citizens. Also, if islam can only slow the decline of morality, family values in Iran, that's enough justification for you guys not to fight it anymore, to say the least. Buddy, don't lose the big picture, don't try to gain a penny, while losing a million dollars!

More like Russia is in deep shit.

Nope, they want to capture Ukraine, at lowest cost, without causing a blood libel type of hatred between Ukrainians, Russians. Russians know that they'll eventually take the entire Ukraine anyways, so why should they make it costly for themselves to just win some browny points, hollywood type Russia Stronk propaganda? It simply doesn't worth it.

 

[rmi5]

Turkish people looked at iran with envy and wanted to have Iran's type of influence in the region, so they voted him in, and naturally his "Islamic Economics" damaged the economy.

Nope, most turks are religious hanafi muslims, thus, they were never happy with CHP; CHP, the secular socialist party of Ataturk, was always a minority, supported, kept in power by the nationalistic turkish army. Two decades ago, was the time of bringing in democracy to muslims. So, the west wanted to install Erdogan, a former follower of Gullen, himself, to make Turkey as the role model of what all muslim states should be in the future. He is a neo-liberal, when it comes to economy, just like Iranians, like the rest of the world, for the past 3 decades. There is nothing islamic about neo-liberalism, aka late stage monopolistic capitalism, built mainly on credit(debt), interest. Islamic system is an old school gold standard no interest (No reba), semi socialistic (2.5% zakaat (tax) + 20% Khoms (tax)), semi capitalistic (recognizing personal property rights) type of a system.

 

[Oldman1]

Nope, they want to capture Ukraine, at lowest cost, without causing a blood libel type of hatred between Ukrainians, Russians. Russians know that they'll eventually take the entire Ukraine anyways, so why should they make it costly for themselves to just win some browny points, hollywood type Russia Stronk propaganda? It simply doesn't worth it.

Yes, I'm aware that Russia wants to capture Ukraine with minimal losses, but the reality is that they are having big problems. The Russian Army has logistical problems going far deep into Ukraine. Sure they don't have to worry about the Russian Air Force since they can fly and return to base to refuel and rearm, but the ground situation is very different. Unless Ukraine surrenders now, Russian Army is as I have said in deep crap.

 

[sha ah]

Houthis shoot down an MQ-9 drone which belongs to the Saudi coalition

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497087089141239809

Senior Saudi backed commander killed in Yemen

Yemeni forces inflict massive losses on Saudi mercenaries in Hajjah, kill senior commander

Yemeni army forces and their allies inflict massive losses on Saudi mercenaries in the country’s northwestern province of Hajjah, killing a high-profile militant commander in the process.

www.presstv.ir

Not sure what's going on but there seems to be infighting in Aden during the last few days

Aden now: people with an explosion and armed clashes in the outskirts of Mansoura​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496653107224317952

 

[rmi5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497696732892868617

What did I say people?

It's the best news for Iran, if Iranian officials use their brain, which it remains a question for now. Now, the Russians will be put to the corner with Iran. Russians were hesitant about this new cold war, but west put them into the corner of either starting the new cold war 2.0 or being subjugated into having super-sonic nuclear missiles being stationed at Rus-UKR border, which is few hundred miles from Moscow. Finally, the west is realizing that it's becoming too late for its economy, there is no chance for the west, except for reviving a new cold war 2.0 type of a scenario. If not for Taiwan, they'll put China into the same corner as Russia& Iran, for another reason, as well. Chinese admins are very smart less corrupt, though, they have already figured out that the times of just being good trade partners, benefiting from the system, without projecting power in the world, is soon to be over for them, as China has become too strong, cut too much of the share of the west from the global economy, the third world.

 

[TheImmortal]

 

[Stryker1982]

Nope, most turks are religious hanafi muslims, thus, they were never happy with CHP; CHP, the secular socialist party of Ataturk, was always a minority, supported, kept in power by the nationalistic turkish army. Two decades ago, was the time of bringing in democracy to muslims. So, the west wanted to install Erdogan, a former follower of Gullen, himself, to make Turkey as the role model of what all muslim states should be in the future. He is a neo-liberal, when it comes to economy, just like Iranians, like the rest of the world, for the past 3 decades. There is nothing islamic about neo-liberalism, aka late stage monopolistic capitalism, built mainly on credit(debt), interest. Islamic system is an old school gold standard no interest (No reba), semi socialistic (2.5% zakaat (tax) + 20% Khoms (tax)), semi capitalistic (recognizing personal property rights) type of a system.

Appreciate the details on this.

 

[sha ah]

Honestly after the route in Afghanistan I don't know how you can be judgemental towards Russia in military affairs. You must have no shame in this regards. Suicide rates in the US army are currently at an all time high. The truth is sometimes hard to swallow.

Realistically it's really early, barely 72 hours. So far from what I can see, the Russians are on the verge of connecting two of their main pockets (east and south) and they've effectively surrounded every major city in Ukraine, including the capital.

The truth is that they really don't need to conquer Ukrainian territory and control every city, town, village, building, etc. All they need to do is cut off the cities from each other, cut off communications, seize border check points, seize airports, airfields, etc. Once Ukrainians begin to run out of food and fuel, the rest will fall into place. It's inevitable. Just a matter of time.

You were wrong about Afghanistan, wrong about Iraq and you're wrong about Ukraine. Just wait and watch. The Russians will show you how its done.

Yes, I'm aware that Russia wants to capture Ukraine with minimal losses, but the reality is that they are having big problems. The Russian Army has logistical problems going far deep into Ukraine. Sure they don't have to worry about the Russian Air Force since they can fly and return to base to refuel and rearm, but the ground situation is very different. Unless Ukraine surrenders now, Russian Army is as I have said in deep crap.

 

[Stryker1982]

View attachment 819188

Rate of advance might lead to this whole thing being over in 5 more days. In the sense that the entire east would be occupied.

If they blow up the bridges crossing the Dnipyr. They will in effect cut off their own supply lines to all the troops in the east.

 

[rmi5]

Yes, I'm aware that Russia wants to capture Ukraine with minimal losses, but the reality is that they are having big problems. The Russian Army has logistical problems going far deep into Ukraine. Sure they don't have to worry about the Russian Air Force since they can fly and return to base to refuel and rearm, but the ground situation is very different. Unless Ukraine surrenders now, Russian Army is as I have said in deep crap.

IMO, there are three possible scenarios. 1. the UKR army gives in Kiyev without fighting in the next 2-3 days, the best scenario for Putin, worst for the west. 2. Ukrainians fighting back, forcing Putin to use the rest of his army, currently stationed at the border, basically making Kiyev into Grozney 2.0, capture Kiyev, good for the west, not so good for Russia, but very likely. 3. stretching fights beyond one month, basically the Aleppo scenario, which is very unlikely. I'm not sure, whether scenario 1 or 2 will happen, but unlike the common consensus, I think that scenario 1 is still likely to happen.

 

[Stryker1982]

IMO, there are three possible scenarios. 1. the UKR army gives in Kiyev without fighting in the next 2-3 days, the best scenario for Putin, worst for the west. 2. Ukrainians fighting back, forcing Putin to use the rest of his army, currently stationed at the border, basically making Kiyev into Grozney 2.0, capture Kiyev, good for the west, not so good for Russia, but very likely. 3. stretching fights beyond one month, basically the Aleppo scenario, which is very unlikely. I'm not sure, whether scenario 1 or 2 will happen, but unlike the common consensus, I think that scenario 1 is still likely to happen.

IMO, the entire EAST is at risk of being cut off like a scissor from the North and South. Leaving all the bulk of the army trapped on the wrong side of the river.
I don't think option one will happen, unless their is a decisive RUS attack, their would be strong resistance and a very large concentration of forces in the city.

Burning Kiev like Grozny I think is the worst thing they could do, I think it is something they really don't want, but may have to do to take it due to strong resistance. Surrounding the city seems like the best option but if they do not shell it or bomb it, and leave it in tact it could be acceptable and allow for ceasefire.

 

[Oldman1]

IMO, there are three possible scenarios. 1. the UKR army gives in Kiyev without fighting in the next 2-3 days, the best scenario for Putin, worst for the west. 2. Ukrainians fighting back, forcing Putin to use the rest of his army, currently stationed at the border, basically making Kiyev into Grozney 2.0, capture Kiyev, good for the west, not so good for Russia, but very likely. 3. stretching fights beyond one month, basically the Aleppo scenario, which is very unlikely. I'm not sure, whether scenario 1 or 2 will happen, but unlike the common consensus, I think that scenario 1 is still likely to happen.

1. Won't happen, people on twitter and even posters on this forum say WAR IS OVER IN JUST 48 HOURS just because they reached Kiev from Belarus, but now they are having a hard time taking it, and as you said, going into Kiev turns into Grozny but on a larger level and that's just 1 city. Ukraine is roughly almost like Poland and Germany in one. And Putin knows leveling the city will make Ukrainians fight harder especially when you have the social media these days.

 

[TheImmortal]

Rate of advance might lead to this whole thing being over in 5 more days. In the sense that the entire east would be occupied.

If they blow up the bridges crossing the Dnipyr. They will in effect cut off their own supply lines to all the troops in the east.

This will take longer.

The city fighting will take much longer based on Syrian fighting. Russia isn’t going to siege the cities like SAA did in Syria or level buildings like Syria. So Kharkov and Kiev and Mariupol will be challenges.

I think Kiev at this rate could last another 2 weeks. Unless Russia sends reinforcements. Right now Russia is not using even 40% of its forces.

But situation is fluid so I’m going to see how much land they cover in 72 hours. That will give us a week’s worth of data to make a better prediction.

 

[Oldman1]

This will take longer.

The city fighting will take much longer based on Syrian fighting. Russia isn’t going to siege the cities like SAA did in Syria or level buildings like Syria. So Kharkov and Kiev and Mariupol will be challenges.

I think Kiev at this rate could last another 2 weeks. Unless Russia sends reinforcements. Right now Russia is not using even 40% of its forces.

But situation is fluid so I’m going to see how much land they cover in 72 hours. That will give us a week’s worth of data to make a better prediction.

Russia has already sent in more than 50% of its forces.