QWECXZ
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As a person that has visited Turkey several times, the country is progressing really fast. Their infrastructure is changing really fast. 15 years ago Turkey was hardly seen as a regional power comparable to Iran and Saudi Arabia in terms of regional influence, now it is surpassing both countries.I'm sorry but Turkey as an economic model to be envied ? NO! 2/3rd of people in Turkey only use USD now. Look where they were 15 years ago ? Hmmm... 1 USD was worth 1.2 Lira 15 years ago. Now it's 14 Lira.
Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria will become large and developed consumer markets but they will never be leading nations in terms of cutting edge technological development. Even India has a long way to go.
Sure India will likely have the worlds largest populations in a few decades but women not having access to contraception is not a good thing in the long run. How are these nations going to feed these sprawling, massive populations ? This will put them at a major disadvantage in the global market.
In a few years we will see if reviving the JCPOA was even worth it. Even if the Democrats win another 4 years, what about the next 4 years after that ? Sure Iran will get a massive economic boost out of the JCPOA revival. Iran will get a surge of funds and technology.
But it will only be worth it if Iran's economy is better prepared to avoid being shocked no matter what subsequent US administrations decide to do. If Iran absorbs as much economic benefits as possible in these next 3 years and then in theory Trump comes along and cancels the deal, then Iran will be precisely where it was, except it received a massive surge in between.
Will the sacrifice be worth it ? Well if Trump makes such a move and the rumors are true, then afterwards Iran will have the legal right under UN law to enrich to 60%. In that case, it won't take Iran long to recoup any losses. It's honestly extremely difficult to weigh any pros and cons when it comes to this issue. It's one of those issues where history will be the best judge.
Turkey is part of the E7 countries.
E7 countries are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey. G7 countries are the US, the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy.
In 1995, the economies of E7 countries were half the size of the G7 countries. In 2015, E7 and G7 became nearly the same size. In 2040, E7 is projected to be at least twice the size of G7 economies. Do you see the difference now? Do you think the current structure of the UN Security Council with only 5 permanent members who will be neither economic powers (except for the US) nor military powers (except for the nuclear states and again, the US in particular) can keep the global order then? I don't think so. The UN Security Council will have to change undoubtedly.
As for Nigeria, Nigeria is expected to become one of the top 15 economies of the world by 2040. Nigeria has 200 million people and about half of the population is aged below 30 which shows a tremendous potential for growth in decades ahead. In 2040, Nigeria's population will reach 330 million people and again, the majority of the population will be young. Literacy rate is acceptable by African standards and stands at 63%, which seems low because of the older generations mostly. The younger generation is much better educated. Unlike most Middle Eastern countries that have nothing to offer but oil because we live in dry lands and our lands are not adequate for agriculture, Nigeria's yearly precipitation is 1,200 mm. Almost 10 times than your average Middle Eastern country.
Brazil has a well-developed aerospace industry. Something we have been trying to do for decades and have failed constantly. Brazil has Embraer which produces all kinds of civilian and military aircraft while Iran, after decades of investment in this area, has not progressed much. Regarding the engine technology, Iran and Brazil are very close. Brazil enjoys Iran's technological expertise while it also has the world's largest forests.
And I think you don't disagree that India will become much more powerful than it is in 2040, so I am not going to write about it.
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