Iranian Chill Thread

[925boy]

Russia is unwilling to give Turkey software codes or technology transfers for the S-400. The deal to purchase a 2nd batch of S-400 is now up in the air. Russia is being cautious since Turkey recently sold it's Bayraktar drones to Ukraine.

So Turkey basically forfeited it's F-35 deposit by purchasing the S-400. Erdogan recently tried to use the deposit from the deal to purchase dozens of F-16s but the US seems unwilling to give up the deposit.

This is what happens when you try to have your cake and eat it too. This is just terrible diplomacy. This mess along with Erdogan's insistence on lowering the inflation rate has been a disaster for Turkey.

Yup...this seems like a Russian sneaky game - tempt Turkey with "juicy offers" like S400 to cause Turkey have rifts with NATO, then disable them, so the stranded Turkey has something - S400s, but they wont work, and it cant get much high tech from US , like F35.

TURKEY looks Stranded imo - cant get any high tech military stuff from Russia or US. lol.

 

[Stryker1982]

I have the Command: Modern Operations game if you guys wanted to try to simulate something

Just screwing around. @Sainthood 101 Feel like u might be interested as well.

Defender:
David Sling -> North of Haifa x128 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 2 -> North of Tel Aviv x48 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 3 -> South of Tel Aviv x48 available to fire SAMs
PAC 2 GEM -> Dimona x48 available to fire SAMs
Iron Dome is also at Dimona but it won't be useful.

Keep in mind, the batteries have multiple TELs with ready to fire missiles, if the missiles are depleted from the TEL, it takes a bit of time to reload. Example: The Arrow-3
Arrow-3 has 4 TELs with 6 ready to fire missiles per TEL -> 24 ready to fire immediately, the remaining 24 (leaving a total of 48) are then reloaded onto the TELs for more firing, but their is a penalty as it takes time for the loading process.

Attacker: Fateh-110B -> 6 South Lebanon, 6 Bekaa Valley, 12 in Syria -> x24 ready to fire.
12 Missiles are fired from Lebanon, 3 minutes later 12 are fired from Syria.

Because of the seriousness of the defense, I've allowed the PAC 2 GEM weapons release authorization to 3 SAMs per incoming missile, as opposed to the standard 2 SAMs per incoming missile that will be used for the other AD batteries.

Run 1:

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
6x Stunner
24x Arrow 3
2x Arrow 2
23x MIM-104E Patriot PAC-2 GEM+

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
24x Fateh-110/3 A-110B [450kg HE Conventional]

Result: (3 of 24) were able to impact the site.
Whole operation lasted 10 minutes. The reloading process for the Arrow-3 would take 30 mins in the simulation.

Arrow-2, basically useless due to the David Sling position North of Haifa, and also because it's overall position is very bad for defending Dimona, and is positioned to defend Tel Aviv instead, so the Arrow-2 was not useful, and the Arrow-3 and PAC GEM were the heavy lifters.
Radars immediately detected the missile launches including the Green Pine I put in the desert.
The IADS operates automatically and with a very high degree of complexity, I feel like if I was in manual control of the IADS, I would've shifted more weight onto the David Sling, instead of putting the burden on the Arrow-3 which I needed to use conservatively. Once the Fateh's in North Lebanon and Syria climbed to high altitude the Sling was not useful. Besides that, the simulation is very complex, so much so that BAE systems in the UK have acquired this platform for simulation purposes, of course they are given a special version not available to us noobs.

If I fired another 6 missiles, the defenses would be completely depleted until the next reload period. Basically, any missiles fired within the next 20 mins would've been a guaranteed hit until this window closes. It in many ways made me think about how it would not be too difficult to fire a ton of cheap missiles, with weak guidance towards to site to force the TELs to deplete and then wave the good missiles between reload periods.

 

[Xerxes22]

..

 

[sha ah]

Houthis seem to be expanding south east, towards Shabwa, with several ballistic missiles hitting vital targets. They have effectively opened up another front/pocket in the war.

Deaths and injuries were caused by Houthi missile strikes targeting Khamuma camp in Lower Markh in Shabwa governorate

Deaths and injuries were caused by Houthi missile strikes targeting Khamuma camp in Lower Markh in Shabwa governorate Shabwah - Interactive map of Yemen war - Yemen news live map- yemen.liveuamap.com

Deaths and injuries were caused by Houthi missile strikes targeting Khamuma camp in Lower Markh in Shabwa governorate. Yemen Civil war and Saudi-led intervention news on live map in English

yemen.liveuamap.com

Shabwa: Houthi militia bombed a camp for giants in Markha with a ballistic missile

Shabwa: Houthi militia bombed a camp for giants in Markha with a ballistic missile Shabwa - Interactive map of Yemen war - Yemen news live map- yemen.liveuamap.com

Shabwa: Houthi militia bombed a camp for giants in Markha with a ballistic missile. Yemen Civil war and Saudi-led intervention news on live map in English

yemen.liveuamap.com

Yemeni sources: 7 soldiers of the Amaliqa forces were killed and 10 wounded in targeting a Yemeni army camp in Shabwa

Yemeni sources: 7 soldiers of the Amaliqa forces were killed and 10 wounded in targeting a Yemeni army camp in Shabwa Shabwah - Interactive map of Yemen war - Yemen news live map- yemen.liveuamap.com

Yemeni sources: 7 soldiers of the Amaliqa forces were killed and 10 wounded in targeting a Yemeni army camp in Shabwa. Yemen Civil war and Saudi-led intervention news on live map in English

yemen.liveuamap.com

Huge explosion rocked the city of Ataq, the capital of Shabwah governorate. Local source says a Houthi ballistic hit Ataq airport after arrival of Saudi-led coalition forces.

Huge explosion rocked the city of Ataq, the capital of Shabwah governorate. Local source says a Houthi ballistic hit Ataq airport after arrival of Saudi-led coalition forces. Photo credit: Majd Ibrahim Ataq, Shabwah Governorate - Interactive map of Y

Huge explosion rocked the city of Ataq, the capital of Shabwah governorate. Local source says a Houthi ballistic hit Ataq airport after arrival of Saudi-led coalition forces. Photo credit: Majd Ibrahim. Yemen Civil war and Saudi-led intervention news on live map in English

yemen.liveuamap.com

 

[Blue In Green]

I have the Command: Modern Operations game if you guys wanted to try to simulate something

View attachment 804802


Just screwing around. @Sainthood 101 Feel like u might be interested as well.

Defender:
David Sling -> North of Haifa x128 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 2 -> North of Tel Aviv x48 available to fire SAMs
Arrow 3 -> South of Tel Aviv x48 available to fire SAMs
PAC 2 GEM -> Dimona x48 available to fire SAMs
Iron Dome is also at Dimona but it won't be useful.

Keep in mind, the batteries have multiple TELs with ready to fire missiles, if the missiles are depleted from the TEL, it takes a bit of time to reload. Example: The Arrow-3
Arrow-3 has 4 TELs with 6 ready to fire missiles per TEL -> 24 ready to fire immediately, the remaining 24 (leaving a total of 48) are then reloaded onto the TELs for more firing, but their is a penalty as it takes time for the loading process.

Attacker: Fateh-110B -> 6 South Lebanon, 6 Bekaa Valley, 12 in Syria -> x24 ready to fire.
12 Missiles are fired from Lebanon, 3 minutes later 12 are fired from Syria.

Because of the seriousness of the defense, I've allowed the PAC 2 GEM weapons release authorization to 3 SAMs per incoming missile, as opposed to the standard 2 SAMs per incoming missile that will be used for the other AD batteries.

Run 1:

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
6x Stunner
24x Arrow 3
2x Arrow 2
23x MIM-104E Patriot PAC-2 GEM+

EXPENDITURES:
------------------
24x Fateh-110/3 A-110B [450kg HE Conventional]

Result: (3 of 24) were able to impact the site.
Whole operation lasted 10 minutes. The reloading process for the Arrow-3 would take 30 mins in the simulation.

Arrow-2, basically useless due to the David Sling position North of Haifa, and also because it's overall position is very bad for defending Dimona, and is positioned to defend Tel Aviv instead, so the Arrow-2 was not useful, and the Arrow-3 and PAC GEM were the heavy lifters.
Radars immediately detected the missile launches including the Green Pine I put in the desert.
The IADS operates automatically and with a very high degree of complexity, I feel like if I was in manual control of the IADS, I would've shifted more weight onto the David Sling, instead of putting the burden on the Arrow-3 which I needed to use conservatively. Once the Fateh's in North Lebanon and Syria climbed to high altitude the Sling was not useful. Besides that, the simulation is very complex, so much so that BAE systems in the UK have acquired this platform for simulation purposes, of course they are given a special version not available to us noobs.

If I fired another 6 missiles, the defenses would be completely depleted until the next reload period. Basically, any missiles fired within the next 20 mins would've been a guaranteed hit until this window closes. It in many ways made me think about how it would not be too difficult to fire a ton of cheap missiles, with weak guidance towards to site to force the TELs to deplete and then wave the good missiles between reload periods.

"If I fired another 6 missiles, the defenses would be completely depleted until the next reload period. Basically, any missiles fired within the next 20 mins would've been a guaranteed hit until this window closes. It in many ways made me think about how it would not be too difficult to fire a ton of cheap missiles, with weak guidance towards to site to force the TELs to deplete and then wave the good missiles between reload periods." --

Thanks for putting in the effort to set up this scenario within the game simulation!!

I think it's almost a guarantee that Iran's missile-firing regime would include the use of several waves, with the first wave being comprised of cheaper "expendable" weapons and the latter waves encompassing the most advanced systems (cruise, drone and ballistic). IRGC-AEROSPACE force's target bank would need to almost certainly include the targeting of personnel as well. As simply hitting their infrastructure isn't enough given the gravity of the situation.

The strike needs to send a crippling blow both to Israel's leadership at the tactical level coupled with destroying critical infrastructure so they think twice about further escalation.

Thank you again for going through the trouble of setting that simulation up!! Much appreciated!

 

[aryobarzan]

Randoms from Iran for the final day of 2021..Happy new 2022 to everyone.

City of Sanandaj,,Capital of Kurdistan

Famous Iranian village of "masoleh" this winter.

Do not mess with Iran...or you will have to deal with the guy above and below!!

Old Iranian car lines up and I find the poster interesting. Hope they update it.

and some other type of line-up!

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

I have the Command: Modern Operations game if you guys wanted to try to simulate something

I think better approach will be to use best of the best first to sabotage Israeli air bases and naval bases in pre emptive strike.
You will give too much time to IAF and IN to take out Iranian strategic locations by sending cheap missiles in first wave.

Lets imagine a future scenario where :
Iran launches its best sub sonic or supersonic missiles from air (Su 35 carrying long range Scalp type missiles) ground (Ballistic Missiles)and sae ( submarine) on air and naval bases. This will destroy a lot of Israeli air and naval assets. The left over can be handled by Su35 and ground air defences.

This can be carried out given that Iran has cruise missiles that can evade radar and defence systems.

We are here discussing a scenario where cost of war for Iran should be lesser than Israel by at least five times.

But
A full scale war should be avoided. Because there are more iranians to die than Israelis.

 

[WudangMaster]

 

[Shawnee]

 

[Stryker1982]

"If I fired another 6 missiles, the defenses would be completely depleted until the next reload period. Basically, any missiles fired within the next 20 mins would've been a guaranteed hit until this window closes. It in many ways made me think about how it would not be too difficult to fire a ton of cheap missiles, with weak guidance towards to site to force the TELs to deplete and then wave the good missiles between reload periods." --

Thanks for putting in the effort to set up this scenario within the game simulation!!

I think it's almost a guarantee that Iran's missile-firing regime would include the use of several waves, with the first wave being comprised of cheaper "expendable" weapons and the latter waves encompassing the most advanced systems (cruise, drone and ballistic). IRGC-AEROSPACE force's target bank would need to almost certainly include the targeting of personnel as well. As simply hitting their infrastructure isn't enough given the gravity of the situation.

The strike needs to send a crippling blow both to Israel's leadership at the tactical level coupled with destroying critical infrastructure so they think twice about further escalation.

Thank you again for going through the trouble of setting that simulation up!! Much appreciated!

I added another 6 missiles, and got 10 impacts, at which point the 6 added missiles basically cruised by without interruption. The Arrow-3s were the biggest problem, but even they sometimes missed the target, especially the PAC-2 GEM. The airdefenses of course are very good, but it can also be stressed quite rapidly, but to me it appears like it's really all about flawless execution and tactics. Wave after Wave in short order. No chance for any defender, made me question a bit about the viability of missile defense in general. Especially with a 2 interceptor to 1 incoming ratio, you are always at a disadvantage. I think it really only works well against a poorer country who cannot produce many missiles or has a few of them, but no against someone with thousands up thousands. At this point it's really about volume/rate of fire and how easily you can fire wave on wave. Disruption of this process would give time for air defense to reload.

I'm trying to model their AD network as best as I can with the best open source materials available, to get the most realistic experience. I'll be able to do it very soon cause I found some posts about fixed AD position in Israel and their coordinates.

 

[mohsen]

Speaks a lot:

 

[thetutle]

Lets imagine a future scenario where :
Iran launches its best sub sonic or supersonic missiles from air (Su 35 carrying long range Scalp type missiles) ground (Ballistic Missiles)and sae ( submarine) on air and naval bases. This will destroy a lot of Israeli air and naval assets. The left over can be handled by Su35 and ground air defences.

You must be joking? How do you suppose Iranian jets will get there. And secondly, Iran does not have SU-35's. Iran might as well use its F-22's to achieve the same goal.

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

They will get it very soon.
My point was that best of best should be used first.

 

[Maula Jatt]

You must be joking? How do you suppose Iranian jets will get there. And secondly, Iran does not have SU-35's. Iran might as well use its F-22's to achieve the same goal.

I mean they can get su-35 as Russia and Iran are close
And it's a hypothetical situation too

 

[thetutle]

This becomes especially relevant in regards to the Bayraktar drones since Russia has recently deployed air defenses right by its border with Ukraine. If Ukraine were to gain access to the S-400 software codes then it could in theory assist them in using Bayraktar drones on Russian targets.

Are Bayraktars prevented form destroying modern Russian air defences now? Ask the Armenians. The only thing that could stop the Bayraktars are probably the Russian Airforce, which the Armenians didn't have or couldn't deploy. Russians could sue their aircraft to eliminate bayraktars but at what cost? Ukrnains air defence will slow them down. Karabakh war has show the limitation of Air defence systems. But so did the Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities.These things are next to useless against drones and cruise missiles. And in a world where an AA missile costs less than a drone, you can see the problem.

Yes the S-400 did end up being cheaper, but realistically the CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey by the west made the S-400 deal several times more costly than simply purchasing the Patriot batteries.

Turkey doesn't want Patriots. They are useless at shooting down NATO aircraft because use US has the source codes and because their Friend or Foe ID systems. Turkey wants to be able to shoot down French and Greek Aircraft. Maybe Israeli Aircraft. Patriots dont provide this capability.

With the fact that Turkey lost out on the F-35 and the fact that the US is now refusing to give Turkey their deposit back, even unwilling to put the deposit towards a larger F-16 purchase, Erdogan pretty much shot himself in the foot.

Erdogan saved his country tens of billions on Aircraft which would not help turkey fight any future conflict. Its a great aircraft but it needs constant US servicing and updates and can only be used on targets that the US approves. Turkey wants to be able to Bomb who it wants, the it wants. F16-s produced and upgraded in Turkey are better for this.

Of course the failed coup, which many believe was sponsored by the CIA/Mossad, did contribute towards Erdogans ultimate decision to purchase the S-400, however by doing so Erdogan pretty much burned both his bridges.

Erdogan is Pursuing an independent path, it is inevitable that he will burn bridges, but Turey has decided to become an independent country that makes its own decisions, and that the price you have to pay.

As far as fighter jets are concerned. Turkey has now teamed up with Pakistan and Azerbaijan to produce a 5th generation fighter jet, but it remains to be seen how that's even possible. Turkey and Pakistan are both economically in dire straits. Azerbaijan on the other hand cannot afford to fund such a program by itself.

Good. They have to try.

Without help from China it's extremely unlikely that Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan can build a 5th generation fighter jet out of thin air.

If 320 million people can't produce a modern fighter jet, they dont deserve a modern figure jet.

Another theory floating around regarding the S-400 deal is that with the massive devaluation of Turkeys currency recently, that Turkey really cannot afford to give up precious foreign currency reserves at this point in time.

Turkey probably already has all the s400 it needs. It has tested their capabilities against its drones and Air Force. so it knows how to defeat it. And yes, it knows its an export version, but its still similar to the S400 in Russian hands.

Turkey will also, will pull them apart, reverse engineer what it can, learn what it can from them and then store them in the event it needs to use it against one of their NATO allies.

Therefore to save face, perhaps Turkey is bringing up various issues simply to stall the deal and save face until the economy stabilizes.

As above, it probably does not need anymore s400's. and its not to save face but rather to wiggle out of a deal which Russia wants more. turkey probably has all the S400's it will ever need.

At the end of the day, Erdogans impulsive decision making regarding the S-400/Patriot F-35/F-16/Altay are an excellent reference on how a middle power with regional / global ambitions should not conduct diplomacy. While trying to play both sides in an attempt to garner the maximum benefit, Erdogan has effectively shot himself in the foot, with nowhere to go as he has burnt all of his bridges to both east and west. However in the end, how this tragic comedy will play out, remains to be seen.

I dont think there is anything impulsive about his decisions. They are calculated to makeTurkey into an independent decision maker which makes decisions based upon its own interest and not for the interests of others.

I mean they can get su-35 as Russia and Iran are close
And it's a hypothetical situation too

They haven't got them yet. and if you see the Russian promises to supply Iran weapons like the 15 year wait for the s300, I would not bet on Iran getting any top of the line Russian equipment.

Anyway, I down think su-35's are very survivable in the region if it comes to serious conflict. They are a good delivery platform if you will bomb some of the gulf countries or some rebels in the desert. but they wont survive long against USAF or patriots. Drones and missiles are far more robust platforms to achieve any military goal.