Muharram will be a huge challenge for Iran. The government has to make sure people wear masks and follow protocol. That's the difference between being overwhelmed versus a humanitarian catastrophe like what we saw in India where bodies were being burned on sidewalks.
Well actually, Moharram is a lesser challenge than daily social life and the behaviour of certain people.
In fact, it is by design that western-sponsored opposition media as well as some elements in Iran are focusing on religious occasions and religious gathering places as potential vectors of COVID transmission, while staying mum about far more relevant factors.
Indeed, the extreme majority of participants at Moharram congregations have shown to be very disciplined when it comes to following protocol. It's no accident that during the early days of the coronavirus affair, isolated incidents were hyped up, featuring mostly followers of the Shirazi clan, who did things such as licking the metal grids surrounding holy shrines and so on (ironically, the same exiled opposition is otherwise supportive of the Shirazi clan given its intrinsic hostility towards the Islamic Republic).
By contrast, take a look at popular excursion areas and vacation destinations such as Shomal... People going there are mingling freely, not keeping distance, oftentimes not wearing masks etc. And this is a daily occurrence, as opposed to Ashura. Likewise, many are still organizing and attending private parties. Including some of the famous show-business figures who then came criticizing authorities because they caught the coronavirus, forgetting how they were going to parties without wearing a mask and happily posting pictures thereof on "Instagram".
The following video is also telling. Look at Tehrani travelers vacationing on the shores of the Caspian Sea despite instructions from the government not to do so:
Equally revealing is their incivil behaviour towards the police officers... Throwing to the ground fines they were handed, bickering and ignoring requests of the police, responding with irony, and even kicking police cars. In Europe, these people would have been arrested. In the US, brutally beaten up and possibly shot at. Only in Iran will police officers lower their heads in such a puny manner when confronted with rebellious citizens.
Also, be sure that many of these people are among the crowd brainwashed by opposition media, and will moreover be brazen enough to bash the Islamic Republic for supposedly mismanaging the coronavirus issue!
