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Iranian Chill Thread

The Houthi Zaydi's are the minority in Yemen, but they're gaining ground against Saudi Arabia which has a modern and capable airforce.

The Houthis aren't alone, they have vast sectors of Yemen's former national army on their side. They have allies outside their tribal confederation and party.

Honestly on Iran's border, if Iran sends in the Fatimayoun with air support, I see them being able to hold the west. The US folded the Taliban in 1 week. They're not very powerful. Iran could use drones, its airforce, some artillery and even some missiles for the shock factor. All that along with some elite IRGC special units and the Taliban would crumble.

As said, the local authority and Iranian ally in Herat province is Ismail Khan. His forces would play a primary role in any Iranian-backed operation in the area. Possibly supported by Fatemiyoun, but the latter cannot be at the forefront there.

Also, Iranian intervention would trigger counter-intervention by antagonist powers. Which would boost the Taleban's capabilities. It would not play out in a vacuum.

However I don't see Iran doing this because Iran wants 4 things out of Afghanistan

1) A stable, secure border. No cross border attacks and preferably no mass refuge exodus
2) No persecution of Shia minorities in Afghanistan, specifically the Hazara
3) Safety for Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan like we're seeing in Herat currently
4) Most importantly a halt to the drug trade would be great for Iran

Not just Shia minorities and Iranian diplomats, but also Iran's other partners. Iran has plenty of allies among a variety of groups in Afghanistan.

Other than this detail, your above quoted assessment is correct. As long as the listed basic conditions are met - which isn't asking all too much from the Taleban, then it wouldn't make any sense to intervene in Afghanistan. And to me point 1) is the most important of all, because the last thing Iran wants is another four decades of war and instability in a neighboring and brotherly nation, with associated risks of spill over into Iranian territory.

But this also means, as indicated before, that for now Iran's focus will be on the internal dynamics of the Taleban more than anything else. That's where the struggle right now is taking place. Iran's enemies, chiefly the US regime and its regional clients, want a Taleban that is staunchly anti-Iranian. Iran seeks the opposite. Hence the overtures towards the Taleban, coupled with hits against known anti-Iranian ringleaders within the movement.
 
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The Houthis are still a minority in Yemen and the Saudis still have superior weapons and a capable, modern airforce. Despite this the Houthis are gaining territory recently.

Taliban did not defeat NATO. The US folded them in 1 week remember ? And ever since they were hiding in caves and pretending to be civilians until the US and NATO left.

What do the Taliban have over Fatimiyoun ? Fatimiyoun fighters are experienced, religiously motivated and they're Afghans who have been historically oppressed and persecuted by the Taliban. The Fatimiyoun fighters famously defeated ISIS in Syria and played a vital role in taking Palmyra. They number 20,000, some say as many as 50,000

If Iran really wanted to create a buffer/safe haven in the western provinces of Afghanistan on their border the Taliban would not stand any chance whatsoever. Missiles, drones strikes, fighter jets, artillery, IRGC special forces and Fatimiyoun fighters. What would the rag tag taliban do against all that ?

Not to mention the fact that unlike the US, Iran is right there so there's no issue of sending troops over thousands of KM. That was a huge logistics nightmare for the USA, not to mention unimaginably expensive.

However like I said, as long as those 4 conditions are met or even 3 of them are met, Iran will not get involved. Like the Art of War mentions, diplomacy is the best way to win

This must be a joke right.. First of all the Zayids are not a minority but around half of the population they are fighting a similar local entity they are not gaining upper hand actully lost territories lately they can't gain militarily victory there is even a potential if it drags on could lose bit and bit territories..

Taliban are not weak but rather formidble and defeated NATO in a 20 years war. The thing wtih the Taliban and why everyone dislikes fighting them is their consistency they can go on for ages. The International community has just chosen to leave them be because they are stubborn and can't be defeated militarily they can go on for centuries if possible. A small tiny minority inside is not a chellenge to them nor does Iran wants to butting heads with Taliban and entering in a brainless conflict that is not theirs entirely and potentially even butting head with Pakistan interests and Pakistan herself. This is not in Iran's interest. As a neighbour Iran was given an assurance hence they look the otherside and let it be
 
The Houthis are still a minority in Yemen and the Saudis still have superior weapons and a capable, modern airforce. Despite this the Houthis are gaining territory recently.

Taliban did not defeat NATO. The US folded them in 1 week remember ? And ever since they were hiding in caves and pretending to be civilians until the US and NATO left.

What do the Taliban have over Fatimiyoun ? Fatimiyoun fighters are experienced, religiously motivated and they're Afghans who have been historically oppressed and persecuted by the Taliban. The Fatimiyoun fighters famously defeated ISIS in Syria and played a vital role in taking Palmyra. They number 20,000, some say as many as 50,000

If Iran really wanted to create a buffer/safe haven in the western provinces of Afghanistan on their border the Taliban would not stand any chance whatsoever. Missiles, drones strikes, fighter jets, artillery, IRGC special forces and Fatimiyoun fighters. What would the rag tag taliban do against all that ?

Not to mention the fact that unlike the US, Iran is right there so there's no issue of sending troops over thousands of KM. That was a huge logistics nightmare for the USA, not to mention unimaginably expensive.

However like I said, as long as those 4 conditions are met or even 3 of them are met, Iran will not get involved. Like the Art of War mentions, diplomacy is the best way to win

I don't know how old you are but you sound like someone whos young. You don't understand anything of this it is better you leave it altogether.. You ain't gonna rollover anybody both in Yemen or anywhere else ISIS was a tiny group fought by everybody who had no support they are insignificiant using them as an example.

If you wanna make yourself feel good than so be it.. I am not gonna burst your bubble here you don't Understand geopolitics, conventional conflicts dynamics or foreign affairs.. War outcomes don't fallout as they do in cartoons
 
I'm not sure how old you are but you sound like an emotional 12 year old who can't handle facts. ISIS had control of half of Syria and Iraq. At one point many thought they were unstoppable. But in the end what happened ?

In Yemen Houthis already control the capital, all the major cities and the few remaining areas are completely surrounded including Hodeidah (which the Saudis could not take despite trying for weeks), Taiz and Marib. Just look at the map. The east is all desert. Houthis control 90% of the population right now. The Saudis said that they would defeat them in 7 weeks. It's been 7 years.

If you think Iran can't overwhelm the Taliban on its border then you obviously don't know much about Iran. Imran Khan said in a recent interview that Pakistan went bankrupt fighting the Pakistani Taliban. Is that why you think they're formidable ?

The taliban are really not formidable. They're a bunch of rag tag cavemen. Against any motivated or professional force, especially with air support, they cannot stand their ground. In 2001 the US sent them packing within 1 week. As soon as the airstrikes started they began running remember ?

I don't know how old you are but you sound like someone whos young. You don't understand anything of this it is better you leave it altogether.. You ain't gonna rollover anybody both in Yemen or anywhere else ISIS was a tiny group fought by everybody who had no support they are insignificiant using them as an example.

If you wanna make yourself feel good than so be it.. I am not gonna burst your bubble here you don't Understand geopolitics, conventional conflicts dynamics or foreign affairs.. War outcomes don't fallout as they do in cartoons
 
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Taliban lost the whole country in an initial Blitz. Houthis did not even crumble against a huge force despite losing some territory.

Taliban is a huge majority and Zaidis are about 40%.

Taliban lost every city initially. Houthis did not lose any major city. They have main cities and also gaining Marib, the last main remaining city.
 
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I'm not sure how old you are but you sound like an emotional 12 year old who can't handle facts. ISIS had control of half of Syria and Iraq. At one point many thought they were unstoppable. But in the end what happened ?

In Yemen Houthis already control the capital, all the major cities and the few remaining areas are completely surrounded including Hodeidah (which the Saudis could not take despite trying for weeks), Taiz and Marib. Just look at the map. The east is all desert. Houthis control 90% of the population right now. The Saudis said that they would defeat them in 7 weeks. It's been 7 years.

If you think Iran can't overwhelm the Taliban on its border then you obviously don't know much about Iran. Imran Khan said in a recent interview that Pakistan went bankrupt fighting the Pakistani Taliban. Is that why you think they're formidable ?

The taliban are really not formidable. They're a bunch of rag tag cavemen. Against any motivated or professional force, especially with air support, they cannot stand their ground. In 2001 the US sent them packing within 1 week. As soon as the airstrikes started they began running remember ?

Get outta here with this fallacy.. The Houthis don't control majority cities just their original heartland which includes Sana'a but all the majority populated cities like Aden, Taiz, part of Hoiedah, Muk'alla, Marib are with STC and Hadi.. These houthis ain't winning jackshixt all the oil, ports and everything is control by STC and Hadi even the food that comes in to them. They have been starved out.. They ain't seeing anything close to victory my friend ain't rolling over anyone either their best case neccessary for them is ceasefire not even sure the other part will ever grant that they won't be able to last long or outlast the forces fighting them it is a curse war they got themselves into unfortunately for them..

Taliban retreated for tactical reasons they could have fought but they are tactically smart they did the same thing with the soviets before them. Somone who outlasts NATO is formidble and willing to fight for so many years that makes the internationally community just give up on them. That is the defition of a formidble fighting force..

It is easy to put a camel thru a needle rather than fantasizing about this pipe-dreams
You ain't rolling over anybody. The war could enter inside Iran itself. This is what Iran doesn't really want. Hack all your population centers can be nuked to the ground if Pakistan decides that. We can be inside Tehren at will if we want to and you can't do much about it. More manpower and logistics.

During the Safavid Iran crumble against one tiny Pashtun tribe and sacked the entire safavid and invaded Iran talk about being formidble..

Don't over-assume yourself.. You won't overcome anybody on the land nor outnumber. Your narrative is based on fallacy. Just a tiny pipe-dream
 
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They can change their account. They cannot change their grammar styles.

I have smelt this grammar style before.
welcome back Buttlion :D

We will give Yemen another 7 years of war and will see who is right.

Adios.
 
They can change their account. They cannot change their grammar styles.

I have smelt this grammar style before.
welcome back Buttlion :D

We will give Yemen another 7 years of war and will see who is right.

Adios.

Thanks for the welcome my mann..

I really didn't wanna reply honestly but this poster is provocative for no reasons and just looking for unnecessary heat between brotherly nations that is not even worth the time to be honest
 
This has become diplomatic issue Iran summons Russian and British envoys.. The course of actions is to expel them both or replace them. I stand with Iran on this.


Muharram and Biden.
Little things matter in politics and deescalation.

This seems rather surprising not many international media picked up on it and went under the radar. Hack I didn't even know it was Muharram
 
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Muharram and Biden.
Little things matter in politics and deescalation.

I would tend to have a different reading of this. If Biden sought to send a deescalation message to Iran, he probably would have chosen a topic more exclusive to Iran. In my opinion, it makes sense to view this under the angle of the latest anti-Iran policy adjustments conducted by the US regime under Trump already: namely, the attempt to turn non-Iranian Shia communities against Iran, particularly in the Arab world.

Indeed, following the 2007-2019 period, during which the US regime and its clients essentially banked on takfiri and/or sectarianist anti-Shia groups to bring down the Axis of Resistance, they now appear to be trying to foment opposition to Islamic Iran among the very same Shia communities their terrorist patsies used to target for years. This is mostly done through so-called "civil society" movements such as the foreign-funded and -backed protests we witnessed in Iraq and Lebanon as of late, which have been marked by a clearly anti-Iranian tinge. To this end, the enemy's narrative-building revolves around two main pillars:

1) Blaming on Iran every hardship and destruction caused directly or indirectly by the zio-American empire and its destructive, warmongering policies. Here, the short attention span and reduced memory of the "Twitter" newsfeed generation comes in handy.

2) Misrepresent Iranian policy as motivated by chauvinistic, exploitative, imperialist goals. In short, try and suggest that Iran is attempting to "revive the Persian empire" by subjugating its neighbors, when in reality what Iran does is to enter partnerships with on equal footing, with the aim of boosting Resistance against illegitimate foreign occupiers. So the enemy is increasingly playing the "Arab vs Iranian" card, feeding anti-Iranian strains of Arab nationalism. While simultaneously trying to delegitimize the Islamic Republic in the eyes of islamists, by falsely suggesting that the IR is a nationalist state dissimulating its "true nature" behind an Islamic veil.

This "tweet" by Biden is primarily directed at Shia Muslims outside Iran and seeks to convey the notion that the geopolitics of Shia Islam needn't be centered around Iran. That the US can be as much a "friend" to Shia communities as Iran. Likewise, there may be a globalist, Noahide kind of undertone to it, when Biden appears to dilute Shia Islamic values and rites in some sort of an ecumenism.

Āghāye Tahlilgar offers a pretty good analysis on the subject:


_______

Concerning the foregoing discussion about Seyyed Raisi's nomination of Mohammad Mokhber as his first Vice President, here's the latter's resume to date:

- Creation of a million jobs in rural and deprived areas of the country.
- Establishment of the largest ethane extraction plant of Iran.
- Construction of 2100 schools.
- Construction of 1700 mosques and cultural centers.
- Participation in the creation of 45000 residential units for low income households.
- Construction of 12 hospitals and 250 healthcare centers in deprived areas.
- Launching of the largest mobile hospital of Iran with 110 beds on an area of 3000 square meters.
- Distribution of 12 million welfare and healthcare packages in deprived areas during the corona crisis.
- Distribution of 1 million packages of stationery in deprived areas.
- Procuring and supplying tens of thousands of wheelchairs to handicapped citizens.
- Treatment of 13000 infertile couples.
- Providing cochlear implants to 5000 hearing impaired children.
- Arranging for the liberation of over 3000 prisoners.

And more...

As Āghāye Tahlilgar says, considering the position held by Mokhber as of late (Chief of the Headquarters for the Execution of the Imam's Order), it represents a better record than 8 years of activity by the likes of Rohani, Jahangiri and so on.

This said, the Vice President ought to publicly address two points for which he has been criticized. First, why the announced production goal of the Barekat vaccine was not met, as mentioned by PeeD. And second, reports that his son has served as a CEO in several companies. Note that his daughter however was one of the first persons to participate in the Iranian Covid-19 vaccine trials.

I'm not in the know of the actual replies to these questions, but as far the Barekat issue is concerned, maybe a project of this scale can escape the authority of a single person, meaning that even if he delivered the best managerial performance possible, some other institution or office involved may have caused the delay without Mokhber being able to prevent it, depending on how the decision-making hierarchy and process is structured in this particular domain. Who knows.

At any rate, he also scored numerous achievements, Barekat production delay notwithstanding. So at worst, his overall record has been balanced.


_______

In order to evaluate the nominees to President Raisi's cabinet, the proposed list of Ministers is of greater import than the Vice Presidents. Some names amongst these I was admittedly not familiar with, but it would appear that officials from the Ahmadinejad era are prominently represented!

1720426.jpg


Choices such as Hossein Amir Abdollāhiān at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - as much as Iran's enemies are going to hate this, I am certainly enjoying it to no end!, Ahmad Vahidi at the Ministry of the Interior, Ezzatollāh Zarghāmi at the Ministry of Cultural Heritage, Rostam Ghāsemi at the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development etc are good ones.

Let's hope Said Mohammad will be nominated Special Governor of Sistān-Baluchestān province, as per Āghāye Tahlilgar's hypothesis. As Special Governor (distinct from a regular provincial Governor), he would be present routinely at cabinet meetings.
 
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Iran shouldn’t trust the Taliban, Sunni miltant groups are dangerous and there behavior changes with the wind. Look at how Hamas switched when they thought Assad was going to lose the civil war that was backed by Israel and the West. Then they switched back when Assad started to win and the PG Arabs stabbed them in the back (again).

Iran is making a grave mistake if they think Taliban can govern Afghanistan in a normal way. Expect a lot more drug trafficking into Iran and more clashes on the border with rogue groups and smugglers.

Iran is so desperate to remove Western influence off of its borders it’s inviting the fox to guard the hen house.
 
Expect a lot more drug trafficking into Iran and more clashes on the border with rogue groups and smugglers.

From a historical perspective, last time the Taleban were in charge they reduced drug production to practically zero though. Then under US occupation it literally soared. If there's one thing the Taleban can't be accused of having a past record of, it's tolerance for drug production.
 
Iran is so desperate to remove Western influence off of its borders it’s inviting the fox to guard the hen house
This is such a good analogy.

But on the other hand, I don't think they "trust" them, they just tolerate them, but yes their will likely be bandits and stuff on the border areas, and we will have shaheeds if our border guards are not sufficiently protected.

The Taliban also opened up a damn in Kandahar that was blocked by the Ashraf government allowing water to flow into Iran. Their are some interests here, where Iran would be in favor of.
From a historical perspective, last time the Taleban were in charge they reduced drug production to practically zero though. Then under US occupation it literally soared. If there's one thing the Taleban can't be accused of having a past record of, it's tolerance for drug production.
Yes, I remember hearing something about very strict policy on drug production, but of course smugglers and bandits could still circumvent the laws which may lead to clashes on the border. Marg bar this opium trade
 
Yes, I remember hearing something about very strict policy on drug production, but of course smugglers and bandits could still circumvent the laws which may lead to clashes on the border. Marg bar this opium trade

Hardly any drugs were produced in Afghanistan under the Taliban. It was not just in law, they effectively and actually managed to uproot opium production in the country. So should they manage to repeat this feat, then any and all smugglers would need to stock up on their merchandise elsewhere.
 
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