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Regarding expansionist China and bipolar world---it will take 15-20 years before China will build a Navy that can project power globally or reach military parity with US. Until then, Iran will be left alone against US.The issue that persists for the republic is does it want growth or does it want to extend its influence. Having both in a dollar dominated US economic world is unrealistic.
No country has been able to free itself from the US. Some naive observers may point to China, but China holds trillions in treasury Bond of US. Also US/EU is China’s biggest economic partners. China grew because it became the workhorse (slave economy) of Western consumerism. Your phones, tablets, toys, clothes, material possessions was built with Chinese slave labor.
Today as China tries to transition to a consumer based economy and rely less on global trade it becomes quite clear that China cannot break completely free from the West.
Now compare this to Iran where the recent draconian sanctions has reduced all gains the Islamic Republic has on the average persons income and purchasing power.
Resistance economy is good in theory although theoretical. Iran cannot expect its 80M+ economy to supply all its growth. It will grow anemically at that rate.
So we are at a crossroads my friends:
IRGC favors growing influence
More pragmatic factions favor growth
In this day and age you cannot survive being cut off from the global financial system, much like a baby cannot be cut off from nutrients and milk and expected to grow into his/her full potential.
As for solutions it’s tough. US is not a reliable negotiator and the Chinese and Russians are terrible allies of Iran and cannot be counted on to shield and help Iran prosper.
The only thing that can help Iran....is a growing more expansionist China which will force US to abandon Iranian containment and pull Iran back over to the West to once again be the bulwark against the Red wave of Communist Capitalism in the Middle East.
In short: China has to threaten the Global Order so much that two paths open up:
*Iran joining China to cause a bi-polar world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist China in this aim
*Iran joining the West to contain the Red Wave of China from sweeping across the world and receiving significant economic benefits to assist the West in this aim
These two scenarios would allow the Republic to once again have foreign inflows and investment and contribute to a period of significant economic growth.
Regarding expansionist China and bipolar world---it will take 15-20 years before China will build a Navy that can project power globally or reach military parity with US. Until then, Iran will be left alone against US.
Regarding Iran----in order to have significant economic growth you need to:
1) export oil-----and with US sanctions, Asian countries (including China) will not be buying Iranian oil
2) Receive Foreign investments: --as of 2019, foreigners invested 180bln$ in Turkey and only 50bln$ in Iran (mainly in its oil sector)---this goes to show that because of sanctions there will be no more foreign investments even in Iran's oil sector
3) borrow money from international capital markets ----Turkey borrowed and invested into its economy 438bln$ (external debt) and Iran's external debt is only 8bln$--which goes to show that isolation from international capital markets prevented Iran from attracting foreign capital for the purpose of domestic industrialisation.
In the medium and long term, US Sanctions will result in prolonged stagnation and degradation of Iranian economy and Iran needs to do something in order to lift these sanctions.
There are 4 scenarios:
1) Iran and US will return to old JCPOA (unlikely)
2) Iran will give up its ballistic missiles and regional influence in order to lift US sanctions (unlikely)
3) Iran will build ICBM and boost uranium enrichment and plutonium production and act as a belligerent power in the Persian Gulf that threatens maritime traffic, thus blackmailing the USA and forcing it to return to old JCPOA--but this can result in a military collision with USA.
4) New negotiations will result in prolonged version of JCPOA until 2035----this will allow Iran to win time for modernization of Iranian economy while hoping that a new bipolar world will emerge by 2035---this is the best option but there is a need for guarantees that US will not withdraw from new agreement.
Zarif completely blamed JCPOA garbage on Khamenei when he was summoned to Majlis by MPs.He was fool but it wasn’t his fault when the retards in imam Ali army so the devil muayawia made a trick of racing the Quran the khawarj told imam Ali to stop the fight and do the tahkeem but after the dirty trick from Amr bin al As they went back to imam Ali and told him he was right but he was also wrong for letting them doing the tahkeem even though they asked for it in the first place!!. Imam Ali wanted ibn Abbas to do the tahkeem but the khawarij wanted abu musa al ashari even though abu musa was against imam Ali from the beginning when he stoped many people to join him in the battle of the Jamal.
today is the same story I bet rouhani will blame khamenai for his failure when khamenai said the west is not trustable they assisted on negotiating anyway now when he tells them they he was right they going to tell him but you approved the negation with the west
It is normal for companies and government of a country to borrow funds from abroad and fund high return projects at home that generate growth and create jobs---this is especially the case for developing countries that usually tend to have inadequate domestic savings3) Debt is not a good thing.
It is normal for companies and government of a country to borrow funds from abroad and fund high return projects at home that generate growth and create jobs---this is especially the case for developing countries that usually tend to have inadequate domestic savings
Debt is not good if it used to fund consumption rather than high return investments
Italy most likely doesnt make the Abaa...its probably the fabric that comes from Italy then the Abaa is sewn/created in Iran? thats my guess of whats happening. why u all so stuck that a whole Iranian president is wearing an Abaa made in Italy??? U guys want a whole as* Iranian presido to dress like Yemen or Mali /broke country president???? Rouhani's peers in other countries rae doing a whole ot worse, dont forget Ntanyahu sleeps in a >$100k bed....Is that his abaa? They make abaas in taly? Never mind that it's despicable of him to be wearing it as foreign made, I'm still intrigued about abaas being made in Italy. Was this a commissioned work using the country's hard currency or do they make them en masse in Italy for everyone? Knowing this disgusting barrell of excrement, she probably commissioned some fruity boys in Italy to make something that someone in Qom can do for a fraction of the cost and for better result in every way. I wouldn't be surprised if this disgusting waste of matter has machine made or foreign hand made carpets in his nasty trash home. I would rather this carcass be wrapped in foreign fabric and not defile real Persian carpets with it's filthy filthy body in the landfill it lives in. Anyplace she and zarif sleep becomes defiled as a proverbial landfill...