Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

The current map of the SYRIA showing who controls what.

View attachment 709504

In the spring, I'm assuming that the following will be the SAA's primary objectives:

1) SAA can take Al Barah and fill in the southern flank, get close to the M4

2) The rest of the areas along the M5 MUST hold onto current holdings and repel all rebel offensives. This will be vital. especially along Saraqib. Note: Russian military police are now stationed in Saraqib.

3) The SAA can then threaten the M4 which is the life line of the Idlib rebel enclave. They would then continually soften up targets like Jisr Al Shugr, Arihah, Muhanbal, which all lie along the M4.

4) Take back a vital target like Arihah or Muhanbal, That will effectively split the Idlib enclave in half and deal a death blow to the rebel cause there. Idlib proper will then be threatened from the south, east and north east. On the other hand those areas will be hotly contested since they are so vital to the future of the Idlib pocket.

View attachment 709503

Other vital targets include the M45 and 420 highways up north. Targets like Al Atara, Sarmada, Ad Dana would be great for the SAA since they would effectively sever Turkey's main artery into the Idlib enclave.

The 56/60 highway, which connects Jisr Al Shugr to Idlib, almost connects, but does not connect into Turkey and is much more mountainous, therefore more difficult to traverse. Note the towns of Saqin, Khafr Takarim, and Armanaz that are in between Jisr Al Shugr and Idlib proper.

So basically by cutting off vital supply routes and taking little chunks of territory one step at a time, the SAA can effectively cripple the rebels in Idlib.

Of course Turkey will be hard pressed to let the M45 / 420 highways go. They will most likely deploy their drones in response. This is where Syrian air defenses, missile tech, Russian aviation assistance, newly acquired Iranian drones, but most importantly in my opinion, Syrian discipline will be put to the test.

An Iranian drone like the Karrar, armed with a rocket would be an excellent, cost effective method for intercepting enemy UAVs.

View attachment 709505

View attachment 709506

You must taken into account the presence of American troops. I think around 40 or so IFV's entered Syria from Iraq as soon as Biden Admin came into power. They will destroy the rest of Syria to build that Qatar pipeline.

 

[Shawnee]

رخداد مهمی در سکوت خبری پیش میره
اسلام قلعه نزدیک مرز ایران هر لحظه ممکنه سقوط کنه. طالبان به شدت در حال پیشروی اند. گویا ایران ناراضی نیست. طالبان چندین مدله. باید دید کدوم مدل نزدیک گلوگاه و شاهراه مرز ماست​

 

[Titanium100]

The current map of the SYRIA showing who controls what.


In the spring, I'm assuming that the following will be the SAA's primary objectives:

1) SAA can take Al Barah and fill in the southern flank, get close to the M4

2) The rest of the areas along the M5 MUST hold onto current holdings and repel all rebel offensives. This will be vital. especially along Saraqib. Note: Russian military police are now stationed in Saraqib.

3) The SAA can then threaten the M4 which is the life line of the Idlib rebel enclave. They would then continually soften up targets like Jisr Al Shugr, Arihah, Muhanbal, which all lie along the M4.

4) Take back a vital target like Arihah or Muhanbal, That will effectively split the Idlib enclave in half and deal a death blow to the rebel cause there. Idlib proper will then be threatened from the south, east and north east. On the other hand those areas will be hotly contested since they are so vital to the future of the Idlib pocket.

Other vital targets include the M45 and 420 highways up north. Targets like Al Atara, Sarmada, Ad Dana would be great for the SAA since they would effectively sever Turkey's main artery into the Idlib enclave.

The 56/60 highway, which connects Jisr Al Shugr to Idlib, almost connects, but does not connect into Turkey and is much more mountainous, therefore more difficult to traverse. Note the towns of Saqin, Khafr Takarim, and Armanaz that are in between Jisr Al Shugr and Idlib proper.

So basically by cutting off vital supply routes and taking little chunks of territory one step at a time, the SAA can effectively cripple the rebels in Idlib.

Of course Turkey will be hard pressed to let the M45 / 420 highways go. They will most likely deploy their drones in response. This is where Syrian air defenses, missile tech, Russian aviation assistance, newly acquired Iranian drones, but most importantly in my opinion, Syrian discipline will be put to the test.

An Iranian drone like the Karrar, armed with a rocket would be an excellent, cost effective method for intercepting enemy UAVs.

So what you are saying is or assuming that Russia will start WW3 for Idlib or Assad? I am I hearing you correctly? Russia will not confront Turkey over such irrelevant buffer zone. In fact Russia won't even confront Turkey even if it had all of Syria except for big matters such as closure of the Istanbul strait etc etc.

Turkey won't leave that area and will use it as buffer zone and build cities in these buffer zones because it won't take everyone in. Turkey keeps whatever it has taken plus new territories on the SDF areas.

1. If Assad regime were to instigate or lets just say if Russia had to chose between them it will chose Turkey and back out after they re-negotiate their rights for the energy rights in Syria with Turkey and Tartous port remains same. Which means Russia has secured it's two main objectives plus Russia has alot of trade ties with Turkey over 100s of billions worth.

2. With or without Russia if a Conflict involving Turkey were to start they will reach Damascus in no time as Russia won't have enough manpower to contain them nor can the Assad regime. So it will reach Damascus as the war goes on and if Russia is taken out of the occasion the process will only hasten.

3. In such miscalculation which the Russians will never do because they understand the terrain and military realities. It will involve alot of other players will be drawn in such conflict and it won't be an isolated incident as it is to big of a conflict to remain such.

4. Israel will jump in such conflicts and seize Lebanon and South Syria and they would want to make it quickly before Turkey reaches Damascus and re-draw new border lines.

Russia is completely satisfied with current status-quo as it has sealed the energy rights over the gas and oil in Assad held areas and keeps the assad militias irrelevant by letting Israel bomb them contineously which shows who is the boss and keeping Assad there.

The only thing keeping Syria in balance are the US and Turkey who also hold territories of their own whereas the US has the countries most oil over 70% of the oil and gas is being drilled by US companies

 

[Shawnee]

Speaking of geostrategic depth of senior Turkish members:
- They used to say “Qusairgrad”. The war will change from Qusair.
- Aleppo will never fall. Turkey will intervene.
- Assad will fall in 2012, then 2014, then 2015, and so on.

They underestimate Syria while it takes just 100 Syrian Fateh 110 to ablaze major Turkish factories and airports.

 

[Titanium100]

Speaking of geostrategic depth of senior Turkish members:
They used to say “Qusairgrad”. The war will change from Qusair.
- Aleppo will never fall. Turkey will intervene.
- Assad will fall in 2012, then 2014, then 2015, and so on.

They underestimate Syria while it takes just 100 Syrian Fateh 110 to ablaze major Turkish factories and airports.

I have never seen anyone say that not once. Turkey had zero interests in intervening this war until it was forced to do so by the YPG this is truly what got Turkey in Syria and Iraq. They got under their skin literally.

This is Turkey when they hear YPG

The estimation of Assad falling was never really off but Russia's arrival truly changed the estimation the Rebels ended up fighting Russia for 5 years instead. The Estimation was right even Solemani agreed with the estimation they were not false

 

[Shawnee]

I have never seen anyone say that not once. Turkey had zero interests in intervening this war until it was forced to do so by the YPG this is truly what got Turkey in Syria and Iraq. They got under their skin literally.

This is Turkey when they hear YPG

The estimation of Assad falling was never really off but Russia's arrival truly changed the estimation the Rebels ended up fighting Russia for 5 years instead. The Estimation was right even Solemani would agreed with the estimation they were not false

You probably were not around in 2011-2015 then.

Qusairgrad! was well before Russia arrives. Assad was supposed to fall in 2012 and 2013 well before Russia comes.

Speaking of geostrategy.

 

[Titanium100]

You probably were not around in 2011-2015 then.

Qusairgrad! was well before Russian arrives. Assad was supposed to fall in 2012 and 2013 well before Russia comes.

I disagree with that all tho people were making the prediction as far as back in 2013 but the momentum really started to swift big time in 2014 and early 2015. That is when Russia came into the battle

 

[Stryker1982]

I disagree with that all tho people were making the prediction as far as back in 2013 but the momentum really started to swift big time in 2014 and early 2015. That is when Russia came into the battle

Their is truth to this.

Iran/Hezb prevented Syria's fall with key gains and counterattacks to reclaim territory at the crucial time of 2013-2014 when it was at its weakest.

The tide turned after Russia. Essentially, it's airforce.

 

[Shawnee]

I disagree with that all tho people were making the prediction as far as back in 2013 but the momentum really started to swift big time in 2014 and early 2015. That is when Russia came into the battle

One example way before Russia comes from 2012:

Erdogan vows to pray in Damascus' Umayyad Mosque

Premier vows to pray in Damascus mosque ‘soon’ - Türkiye News

Turkish PM slams CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu saying ‘They will not dare to go to Damascus. But we will go there in the shortest possible time. That day is close. We will pray near the grave of Salahaddin Ayyubi’

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

 

[Titanium100]

One example way before Russia comes from 2012:

Premier vows to pray in Damascus mosque ‘soon’ - Türkiye News

Turkish PM slams CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu saying ‘They will not dare to go to Damascus. But we will go there in the shortest possible time. That day is close. We will pray near the grave of Salahaddin Ayyubi’

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

That is pretty much empty talk and probably for election reasons and not really meaningful nor tied to Turkey concerns it is just like them claiming Balkan or Jerusalem from time to time. Turkey elusively came for the YPG this is the honest truth... They consider them as a major security threat and the only security goal and sentiments all turkish parties share is the YPG. They are united on that front.

The reason they created the Interim gov't of syria is for the rebels to resettle YPG areas and basically end them. Everything they do is somehow tied down with YPG interests and the Rebels benefit from this free territories, lands and new gov't freely liberated territories. If YPG were controlling Damascus they would have been there for sure by now hack they would have arrived 8yrs earlier

 

[Xerxes22]

One example way before Russia comes from 2012:

Erdogan vows to pray in Damascus' Umayyad Mosque

Premier vows to pray in Damascus mosque ‘soon’ - Türkiye News

Turkish PM slams CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu saying ‘They will not dare to go to Damascus. But we will go there in the shortest possible time. That day is close. We will pray near the grave of Salahaddin Ayyubi’

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

This moronic madman of a person. Look at the filthy words coming out of this braindead politicians mouth. Erdogan, People will soon dance on ur grave. You bloody traitor. You will sip poison in Jerusalem with ur jewish buddies first than get to damascus. Madmen con artist of a politician. A vicious filthy lying scum. I had always said, this scumbag erdogan was the sufiyani.

 

[Titanium100]

This moronic madman of a person. Look at the filthy words coming out of this braindead politicians mouth. Erdogan, People will soon dance on ur grave. You bloody traitor. You will sip poison in Jerusalem with ur jewish buddies first than get to damascus. Madmen con artist of a politician. A vicious filthy lying scum. I had always said, this scumbag erdogan was the sufiyani.

His not the Sufyani the hadith clearly states that the Sufyani is from the Kalb tribe and his people don't pray and make wine halal does that not sound familiar no sect has these weird practices except the Alwaites and I have even seen Alwaites accepting the fact that Assad is the Sufyani. They are apostates by definition and even by Shia definition. You have to redo your research

 

[Xerxes22]

His not the Sufyani the hadith clearly states that the Sufyani is from the Kalb tribe and his people don't pray and make wine halal does that not sound familiar no sect has these weird practices except the Alwaites and I have even seen Alwaites accepting the fact that Assad is the Sufyani. They are apostates by definition and even by Shia definition. You have to redo your research

Sufiyani will have the backing of Europe (NATO) as it is obvious in the hadiths.

"Later the sedition which started in the west will arrive to Al-Sham (the Levant), thus two banners will fight for control over the Syrian region; they will fight until their armies are exhausted."

The two banners fighting until their last resources are the Syrian army and the Western backed Jihadi brainwashed rebel groups.

Most of Sufiyani's fighters (paid mercenaries ofcourse) are from the tribe of Kalb,but its nowhere stated that he himself comes from that tribe.

Rather According to the hadiths, Following these events the Sufyani will start an uprising in the dry valley of Transjordan and move to seize Damascus.

What is the Transjordan region? During the early modern period, the region of Transjordan was included under the jurisdiction of OTTOMAN syrian provinces.

The Sufiyani who is described to be RED, BLONDE AND BLUE (symbolic of a madman playing all sides) fits perfectly into the confused AKP wet dream foreign agenda.

Even if it is not Erdogan, Cuz he's too old and pathetic,it might be one of his minions or sumone from AKP ideologically motivated by the Great Sultan.

Whoever it is its not from any Offshoot Shiite sect cuz he will end up murdering supporter of the Prophet's (saws) family, meaning the Shiites.

 

[Xerxes22]

This is the definition of delusion how old are you?

how about u try to prove me wrong with some facts instead of asking questions like a 5 yr old kid? cant do that ? I talk from information. I have thought and spent a great period of time studying these things. Take a guess what sort of family (sect) I grew up in. I'll tell you but try to guess.

 

[Titanium100]

how about u try to prove me wrong with some facts instead of asking questions like a 5 yr old kid? cant do that ? I talk from information. I have thought and spent a great period of time studying these things. Take a guess what sort of family (sect) I grew up in. I'll tell you but try to guess.

I am not interested about your family or knowing that. You come off like someone who didn't do enough research to even warrant an answer you wrote down a conspiracy theory. I asked for your age because you seem rather young. Try to restudy that. You will find your answer