I have mixed feelings about this issue but look at the Iranian economy. It's in ruins and only getting worse. Iran has sacrificed so much over the last few years and decades and what do we have to show for it ? A nuclear program ? But out nuclear program doesn't even power 10 percent of the power grid, not even 5. It's something like 2% and they keep saying it's going to increase but it never does.
If you think about it, right before the revolution Iran was on the verge of receiving nuclear weapons from Israel. Nuclear weapons, never mind nuclear energy. Look how much Iran has struggled and sacrificed just to be able to be a nuclear threshold nation. Back then Iran was on the verge of receiving nuclear weapons on a silver platter.
Then there's also Iran's space program, but in reality I mean how many functioning satellites does Iran have right now ? 1 ? Noor ? Realistically until Iran can successfully launch several large communication / military satellites in space and create a network of sorts, I don't see it as being very beneficial. Certainly not worth the pariah status.
Another benefit that is always pointed at is that "Iran is self sufficient" Okay but look at Korea, look at Japan. Look at Germany for example. All industrious, productive and self sufficient countries and they're all US allies.
Look at China, America's biggest adversary, yet they're America's largest or second largest trading partner. Everything in the US is "made in China" The Chinese have made a fortune from the US. They're America's biggest adversary but they own lots of assets in the US. Meanwhile Iran is economically ruined and thought of as a bogeyman, an evil empire, a pariah state. Honestly this "down with America" nonsense, those protests have cost Iran TRILLIONS of dollars. I don't like Obama but he was right when he said "chanting down with America doesn't create jobs"
In this day and age image is everything and even if your end goal is to combat American imperialism and injustice, being vocal and threatening is not going to help your cause. Imagine if the Chinese, rather than initiating trade with the US in the 80s, began holding protests in the 80s and saying "death to America" Today they would be dirt broke, poor, jobless, with a shattered economy.
You know the interesting thing about conservatives in Iran is that they were in power with Ahmadinejad, however after the economy was ruined, they made Ahmadinejad into a scapegoat and blamed him for everything. Then Rohani comes to power and now they're blaming him for the current state of the economy. Here's the thing though, according to the World Bank, Iran's economy is set to grow in the next 2-3 years. So when the next conservative president comes to power, even if he doesn't do anything substantial, Iran's economy will grow anyways because of groundwork that was laid during the Rohani era. But of course the conservative president will take credit for everything.
My point is that instead of blaming others for the current predicament, the power brokers in Iran should actually take responsibility for their own policies which have ruined Iran economically. People like Khamenei and others should realize, just like the Chinese eventually did after decades, that their policies are not benefiting their country or the people.
What I don't understand is this. If Iran is going to be sanctioned and it's economy ruined, why even hold back anymore. The Europeans are basically going along with the sanctions. Why doesn't Iran just build an ICBM or at least openly build a missile capable of reaching all of Europe and also boost the nuclear program to the point where Iran can at the very least build a nuclear submarine or power at the least 5% of the power grid ? I mean yes I suppose Iran doesn't want to upset China or Russia but in my opinion Iran should still push its boundaries.
hmmm......see I take issue with the viability of both of those choices as to me they aren't all that realistic. But I guess when you put it that way choice number one would be the most logical as it gives Iran the time and money to get ready for an eventual Anti-Israel/Anti-U.S. campaign but again the United States would have limited the kinds of weaponry it gave Iran since even at the best of times during the Shah-Era the U.S. internally was under pressure to not give Iran every thing the Imperial Iranian Military asked for as it would have upset the balance in the region America was trying to establish. What I think you're missing here is that the United States would not have just given Iran Carte Blanche to order whatever it is they wanted, there are important geopolitical consequences/factors here that need to be addressed amongst a litany of other historical nuances that also should be accounted for. Iran was most definitely not the be all and end all of America's middle-east vision.
See, the way I view it is that since Iran would remained America's ally: Iran would have subsequently just stuck to an American style military that is conventional and heavily reliant on an expansive, expensive American styled Air-wing with all the amenities that come with it. There is very little room for indigenous advancement since all Iran would have needed to do is just buy some more arms from the West and call it a day turning Iran into just another nation that is dependent on others for its own protection.
Keeping that in mind, Iran's current ability asymmetrically would have just not been present (since the previous reasons that lead to it aren't there) and Iran would have to rely on conventional methods which during the Iran-Iraq war proved to be fruitful but way too expensive and resource consuming. This is something that Iran learned rather harshly during the Iran-Iraq war.
Although there is more to war than just missiles and radars etc, Iran's missile inventory keeps Israel, the Persian Gulf States and America on edge due to its sheer size and capability. A conventional military is something Israel and the United States can fight off effectively but an unconventional military is simply another beast.
So I guess when I put it that way, option two does sound more enticing due to its merits but both options realistically have their pros and cons. So it really is something that depends on the person.
