Iranian Chill Thread

[925boy]

With Oil prices so low in the negative, I wonder what Iran's next move is considering it sells a mere 700,000 barrels compared to Saudi, Qatar, UAE's and Russia's several million barrels p/d

Iran has learned how to survive without oil. Have US allies like KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE?

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran has learned how to survive without oil. Have US allies like KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain and UAE?

True, Iran isn't selling much oil to begin with. Those other countries as you say, are in huge trouble.

 

[sha ah]

The price went negative for a few hours and that was US crude futures, mostly due to storage issues. The US government seems to have bought up the excess reserves and will be adding the oil to their national reserve. The international price remains at around $20 a barrel.In other news Trump ordered the US government to make a large investment in purchasing oil when the price was at $30 a barrel. In any case, even $30 a barrel is relatively cheap.

700,000 was according to tankertrackers.com, a geospatial analytics group which uses mostly information available to the public. Various analysts have various ideas. I read an article where one analyst believes that Iran was producing over 2,000,000 barrels a day, even during sanctions.

Countries like China, India, Indonesia, etc that have gold reserves and easy access to loans are no doubt buying up as much crude oil as humanly possible. With the sanction in place, Iran undoubtedly has to sell its oil at slightly below market price. Either that or Iran has to offer higher quality oil at the same price as standard quality.

In any case I'm sure Iran isn't having any issues selling oil right now. The problem is that even if Iran were selling twice as much as a few months ago, they would still be making less since the price of oil has lost 60% of its value in just a few months.

So imagine 1 million barrels at $50. That's $50 million If Iran is now selling 2 million barrels at $20, that's still $40 million.

From a short term financial point of view this doesn't make sense, even for the Saudi's. If they were to cut their production by 20% the price could easily double and their profit margins would go through the roof compared to what they're making now.

The Saudi's are obviously doing this on purpose. They want to put the last nail in the coffin and kill off the American shale industry once and for all. If you ask me, Russia and Saudi Arabia actually planned this behind closed doors. Remember a few months ago at a G20 meeting I believe where MBS and Putin acted like best friends ?

Right now the shale industry is on its last legs and many producers are contemplating shutting down. US shale doesn't make a profit unless the price is at $60 a barrel. The cuts promised by OPEC are going to take atleast 1 year to implement and that's if everything goes smoothly.

Realistically another 1-2 years of these prices and shale is finished. If the Saudi's are smart, they will hold out until the shale industry crumbles and then they can raise the prices, but even then only up to a point where shale is still not profitable, like $40 a barrel.

The current situation is causing alot of animosity to build up in the US towards the Saudi's. Perhaps if this continues the US will remove their new cutting edge radar systems from Saudi Patriot batteries, which would in turn allow the Houthi's to strike at the Saudi facilities yet again ? That would really give oil prices a boost ? Or perhaps Trump will order his troops to turn off the radar or allow the strikes to take place ? In any case, we haven't seen the Houthi's launch a large scale missile / drone attack in some time. There's a good chance that they're saving up their missiles / drones for a massive barrage. That's pretty much the only way after the American's beefed up their Patriot SAM's.

With Oil prices so low in the negative, I wonder what Iran's next move is considering it sells a mere 700,000 barrels compared to Saudi, Qatar, UAE's and Russia's several million barrels p/d

 

[925boy]

True, Iran isn't selling much oil to begin with. Those other countries as you say, are in huge trouble.

I dont say this with any like or dislike- Iran's power just went up, because our world has strayed the farthest it ever has in modern times from its usual, capitalist, Western dominated model. Iran believes in the "alternative world governance" model, and that model got a boost recently with COVID...might be short term, might be long term, but something will change.

 

[QWECXZ]

700,000 was according to tankertrackers.com, a geospatial analytics group which uses mostly information available to the public. Various analysts have various ideas. I read an article where one analyst believes that Iran was producing over 2,000,000 barrels a day, even during sanctions.

Iran is producing more than 2.5 million barrels per day simply because our local consumption needs about 1.7-2 million barrels per day. We are exporting fewer than 1 million barrels per day though. Probably around 200,000 to 500,000 bpd but no one knows for sure.

 

[925boy]

Iran is producing more than 2.5 million barrels per day simply because our local consumption needs about 1.7-2 million barrels per day. We are exporting fewer than 1 million barrels per day though. Probably around 200,000 to 500,000 bpd but no one knows for sure.

But i think Iran is also selling oil and oil products to neighbors. @BATMAN has confirmed that Iranian petroleum products are all over Pakistan, so Iran MUST be selling its oil to Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan...mostly. Why sell using ships that can be interdicted when you can supply as many oil barrels in all forms to multitide of neighbors with no oil and no cheaper oil than Iranian oil from across the border thats informally sold.

 

[QWECXZ]

But i think Iran is also selling oil and oil products to neighbors. @BATMAN has confirmed that Iranian petroleum products are all over Pakistan, so Iran MUST be selling its oil to Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan...mostly. Why sell using ships that can be interdicted when you can supply as many oil barrels in all forms to multitide of neighbors with no oil and no cheaper oil than Iranian oil from across the border thats informally sold.

Yes, you're right. But oil tankers can carry million barrels of oil. How can you move that many oil barrels on the ground? It seems impossible to me.
And I wouldn't count on something that a person like BATMAN says really.

 

[925boy]

Yes, you're right. But oil tankers can carry million barrels of oil. How can you move that many oil barrels on the ground? It seems impossible to me.
And I wouldn't count on something that a person like BATMAN says really.

LOOOOOOOOL. no further comments from me. thanks.

 

[TruthHurtz]

God I hope Kim is okay...

 

[aryobarzan]

Get to know your enemy as described by a citizen of the enemy state.

We Are Living in a Failed State
The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.
SPECIAL PREVIEW: JUNE 2020 ISSUE
George Packer
Staff writer for The Atlantic
When the virus came here, it found a country with serious underlying conditions, and it exploited them ruthlessly. Chronic ills—a corrupt political class, a sclerotic bureaucracy, a heartless economy, a divided and distracted public—had gone untreated for years. We had learned to live, uncomfortably, with the symptoms. It took the scale and intimacy of a pandemic to expose their severity—to shock Americans with the recognition that we are in the high-risk category.

The crisis demanded a response that was swift, rational, and collective. The United States reacted instead like Pakistan or Belarus—like a country with shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering. The administration squandered two irretrievable months to prepare. From the president came willful blindness, scapegoating, boasts, and lies. From his mouthpieces, conspiracy theories and miracle cures. A few senators and corporate executives acted quickly—not to prevent the coming disaster, but to profit from it. When a government doctor tried to warn the public of the danger, the White House took the mic and politicized
the message.

Every morning in the endless month of March, Americans woke up to find themselves citizens of a failed state. With no national plan—no coherent instructions at all—families, schools, and offices were left to decide on their own whether to shut down and take shelter. When test kits, masks, gowns, and ventilators were found to be in desperately short supply, governors pleaded for them from the White House, which stalled, then called on private enterprise, which couldn’t deliver. States and cities were forced into bidding wars that left them prey to price gouging and corporate profiteering.

Civilians took out their sewing machines to try to keep ill-equipped hospital workers healthy and their patients alive. Russia, Taiwan, and the United Nations sent humanitarian aid to the world’s richest power—a beggar nation in utter chaos.

Adam Chilton, Kevin Cope, Charles Crabtree, and Mila Versteeg: Red and blue America agree that now is the time to violate the Constitution

Donald Trump saw the crisis almost entirely in personal and political terms. Fearing for his reelection, he declared the coronavirus pandemic a war, and himself a wartime president. But the leader he brings to mind is Marshal Philippe Pétain, the French general who, in 1940, signed an armistice with Germany after its rout of French defenses, then formed the pro-Nazi Vichy regime. Like Pétain, Trump collaborated with the invader and abandoned his country to a prolonged disaster. And, like France in 1940,
America in 2020 has stunned itself with a collapse that’s larger and deeper than one miserable leader. Some future autopsy of the pandemic might be called Strange Defeat, after the historian and Resistance fighter Marc Bloch’s contemporaneous study of the fall of France. Despite countless examples around the U.S. of individual courage and sacrifice, the failure is national. And it should force a question that most Americans have never had to ask: Do we trust our leaders and one another enough to summon a collective response to a mortal threat? Are we still capable of self-government?

This is the third major crisis of the short 21st century. The first, on September 11, 2001, came when Americans were still living mentally in the previous century, and the memory of depression, world war, and cold war remained strong. On that day, people in the rural heartland did not see New York as an alien stew of immigrants and liberals that deserved its fate, but as a great American city that had taken a hit for the whole country. Firefighters from Indiana drove 800 miles to help the rescue effort at Ground Zero. Our civic reflex was to mourn and mobilize together.

Partisan politics and terrible policies, especially the Iraq War, erased the sense of national unity and fed a bitterness toward the political class that never really faded. The second crisis, in 2008, intensified it. At the top, the financial crash could almost be considered a success. Congress passed a bipartisan bailout bill that saved the financial system. Outgoing Bush-administration officials cooperated with incoming Obama administration officials. The experts at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department used monetary and fiscal policy to prevent a second Great Depression. Leading bankers were shamed but not prosecuted; most of them kept their fortunes and some their jobs. Before long they were back in business. A Wall Street trader told me that the financial crisis had been a “speed bump.”
All of the lasting pain was felt in the middle and at the bottom, by Americans who had taken on debt and lost their jobs, homes, and retirement savings. Many of them never recovered, and young people who came of age in the Great Recession are doomed to be poorer than their parents. Inequality—the fundamental, relentless force in American life since the late 1970s—grew worse.


This second crisis drove a profound wedge between Americans: between the upper and lower classes, Republicans and Democrats, metropolitan and rural people, the native-born and immigrants, ordinary Americans and their leaders. Social bonds had been under growing strain for several
decades, and now they began to tear. The reforms of the Obama years, important as they were—in health care, financial regulation, green energy—had only palliative effects. The long recovery over the past decade enriched corporations and investors, lulled professionals, and left the working class further behind. The lasting effect of the slump was to increase polarization and to discredit authority, especially government’s.
Both parties were slow to grasp how much credibility they’d lost. The coming politics was populist. Its harbinger wasn’t Barack Obama but Sarah Palin, the absurdly unready vice-presidential candidate who scorned expertise and reveled in celebrity. She was Donald Trump’s John the Baptist.

Trump came to power as the repudiation of the Republican establishment. But the conservative political class and the new leader soon reached an understanding. Whatever their differences on issues like trade and immigration, they shared a basic goal: to strip-mine public assets for the benefit of private interests. Republican politicians and donors who wanted
government to do as little as possible for the common good could live happily with a regime that barely knew how to govern at all, and they made themselves Trump’s footmen.

Like a wanton boy throwing matches in a parched field, Trump began to immolate what was left of national civic life. He never even pretended to be president of the whole country, but pitted us against one another along lines of race, sex, religion, citizenship, education, region, and—every day of his presidency—political party. His main tool of governance was to lie. A third of the country locked itself in a hall of mirrors that it believed to be reality; a third drove itself mad with the effort to hold on to the
idea of knowable truth; and a third gave up even trying.

Trump acquired a federal government crippled by years of right-wing ideological assault, politicization by both parties, and steady defunding. He set about finishing off the job and destroying the professional civil service. He drove out some of the most talented and experienced career officials, left essential positions unfilled, and installed loyalists as commissars over the cowed survivors, with one purpose: to serve his own interests. His major legislative accomplishment, one of the largest tax cuts in history, sent hundreds of billions of dollars to corporations and the rich. The beneficiaries flocked to patronize his resorts and line his reelection pockets. If lying was his means for using power, corruption was his end.

More....
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/

 

[QWECXZ]

God I hope Kim is okay...

Why? What difference does it make to us?

 

[Aramagedon]

Hundreds poisoned in the US after stupid Trump recommendation of injecting/drinking of vitex:

 

[sha ah]

This website https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production
Says Iran is producing 2.6 million barrels per day. I'm not sure how current this is but if Iran needs 1.5 - 1.7 for domestic consumption then that would leave approx 600,000 for export

That tankertrackers website estimated that Iran was exporting 700,000 near the end of last year. Keep in mind that doesn't include oil sold through land routes and 700,000 was the number that they were able to come up with by analyzing mostly publicly available satellite images of tankers. They even stated that some of the methods Iran was using made it nearly impossible to track.

In reality the number could have been anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 or 1.4 via tankers alone and then another 400,000 via land routes. I mean even at 700,000 via tankers and 200,000 via land, the would still be approx 1 million barrels per day. At the end of the day everyone loves cheap oil .

According to RadioFarda, this article https://en.radiofarda.com/a/opec-sa...-million-bpd-since-us-sanctions/30272297.html
They say that Iran's oil production was down from 3.8 in Nov 2018 to 2.146 in Nov 2019. That would be down 1.65 million barrels per day. According to them Iran was only exporting 200,000-350,000 barrels per day at the time of this article. Personally I don't buy that number, especially since other analysts who have used satellite imagery have stated double that number.

This article is saying that last year Iran was selling 1.2-1.4 just to China
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/mil...anian-crude-are-sitting-in-chinese-ports.html

This article is saying that Iranian exports have been reduced to 100,000 bpd in July of 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...irans-oil-exports-slide-in-july-idUSKCN1UP1UD

According to another article, which I can't find now for the life of me, I read online, one western analyst has stated that by looking at satellite images of Iran's oil facilities, he's guessing that Iran is still producing 4 million + barrels per day. This was before the Coronavirus and before the price of oil collapsed and at the end of the day it's speculation.

However keep in mind, oil is cheap right now. It would make sense for nations with gold / cash reserves to horde as much oil as possible, especially from Iran, since because of the sanctions Iran has to give a discount on oil. Who knows but there's a good chance that India, China, Indonesia,even Iran's neighbors are hording cheap Iranian oil.

Anyways even if Iran were selling more oil, like 2 million barrels per day, at the current prices, Iran would still be generating less revenue than a few months ago when the price of oil was $50+ per barrel. For Iran it's a loss no matter how you want to look at it but even 1 million + barrels per day

Iran is producing more than 2.5 million barrels per day simply because our local consumption needs about 1.7-2 million barrels per day. We are exporting fewer than 1 million barrels per day though. Probably around 200,000 to 500,000 bpd but no one knows for sure.

 

[QWECXZ]

This website https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production
Says Iran is producing 2.6 million barrels per day. I'm not sure how current this is but if Iran needs 1.5 - 1.7 for domestic consumption then that would leave approx 600,000 for export

That tankertrackers website estimated that Iran was exporting 700,000 near the end of last year. Keep in mind that doesn't include oil sold through land routes and 700,000 was the number that they were able to come up with by analyzing mostly publicly available satellite images of tankers. They even stated that some of the methods Iran was using made it nearly impossible to track.

In reality the number could have been anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 or 1.4 via tankers alone and then another 400,000 via land routes. I mean even at 700,000 via tankers and 200,000 via land, the would still be approx 1 million barrels per day. At the end of the day everyone loves cheap oil .

According to RadioFarda, this article https://en.radiofarda.com/a/opec-sa...-million-bpd-since-us-sanctions/30272297.html
They say that Iran's oil production was down from 3.8 in Nov 2018 to 2.146 in Nov 2019. That would be down 1.65 million barrels per day. According to them Iran was only exporting 200,000-350,000 barrels per day at the time of this article. Personally I don't buy that number, especially since other analysts who have used satellite imagery have stated double that number.

This article is saying that last year Iran was selling 1.2-1.4 just to China
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/mil...anian-crude-are-sitting-in-chinese-ports.html

This article is saying that Iranian exports have been reduced to 100,000 bpd in July of 2019
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...irans-oil-exports-slide-in-july-idUSKCN1UP1UD

According to another article, which I can't find now for the life of me, I read online, one western analyst has stated that by looking at satellite images of Iran's oil facilities, he's guessing that Iran is still producing 4 million + barrels per day. This was before the Coronavirus and before the price of oil collapsed and at the end of the day it's speculation.

However keep in mind, oil is cheap right now. It would make sense for nations with gold / cash reserves to horde as much oil as possible, especially from Iran, since because of the sanctions Iran has to give a discount on oil. Who knows but there's a good chance that India, China, Indonesia,even Iran's neighbors are hording cheap Iranian oil.

Anyways even if Iran were selling more oil, like 2 million barrels per day, at the current prices, Iran would still be generating less revenue than a few months ago when the price of oil was $50+ per barrel. For Iran it's a loss no matter how you want to look at it but even 1 million + barrels per day

Well, yeah. I said that Iran produces more than 2.5 million barrels per day to correct what you had said about Iran producing 700,000 bpds.

Anyway, you can't say that because at some point in recent years Iran allegedly exported 1.2 million bpds to China then it has to be the same this year. Our oil production is decreasing as you quoted from Radio Farda. Bijan Zanganeh has confirmed that our oil production is decreasing. We produced almost 5 million barrels per day before Trump reimposed US unilateral sanctions. Now we are producing fewer than 3 million barrels per day. And our oil consumption differs season by season and year by year. For example, after the gasoline reform plan in October, our gas consumption decreased and obviously that affects our local oil consumption as well.

And selling oil on the land is too difficult. Oil tankers can carry millions of barrels safely. What kind of container trucks do you want to use that can handle anything like that? How many of them do you need? I don't think it's feasible. Maybe 50,000 barrels per day can be sold like that, but not hundreds of thousands of barrels.

Selling 2 million barrels per day is completely impossible even before covid-19, considering our capacities and our local consumption. Japan, South Korea, all European countries (Italy, Spain, Greece, etc.), Singapore, Malaysia, even India and Turkey have stopped buying Iranian crude oil. Most Chinese refineries have switched to Saudi Arabian oil and Iranian oil is not their top priority anymore. Even 700,000 barrels per day is too optimistic. The real number is probably between 200,000 to 500,000. But as I said, nobody knows for sure.

 

[Aramagedon]

The last former regime FM flattens BBC and yankees

saudi regime will fall soon and yankees can't do nothing about it