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Iranian Chill Thread

Good article on operational options of US part of its "Third Offset Strategy" to defeat the defenses of Iran, China and Russia. The plan would be of employing "Small, Smart and Many" munitions in a "tunneling attack" causing the local collapse of AD systems: Defense in Depth » Understanding the Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Precision Strike



Here is a good article on the subject you are talking about: Viewpoint: Britain must pay reparations to India - BBC News

Note that Indian subcontinent was systematically de-industrialized so that Britain could carry on "looting" the subcontinent.

The Indian subcontinent's share of world's GDP decreased from 23% before colonization to less than 4% by the time British left India.

But @Atanz made a unique point which I think is amazing. He said, if the British had not come to subcontinent, in all probability India would have been "balkanized". Now I am not an expert in historical alternative realities but this was certainly possible. Exactly such a fate happened to Ottomans. So Mughuls were certainly at risk. They had become stagnant and weak. There was no cohesive political movement of democratic or otherwise dispositon in Indian subcontinent which could function as a glue so, the balkanization was certainly possible. But you never know, since before the British came to subcontinent the Indian culture was very inclusive regardless of its other shortcomings. So it is not inconceivable to think that India would have emerged a very powerful and unified country had it not been colonized.

But such an India would have definitely and completely overshadowed Iran with its nearly 1.5 billion population and its enormous size, being a direct neighbor of Iran. So regardless, as @Atanz said there are some positive effects.

@Daneshmand

As an Indian, may I suggest that you read up about the Marathas?

This was the Maratha empire just before the British came ......

India_18th_century.JPG


Please also read up about the Third Battle of Panipat and the Anglo-Maratha Wars.

@Joe Shearer @third eye @Bang Galore
 
@Daneshmand

As an Indian, may I suggest that you read up about the Marathas?

This was the Maratha empire just before the British came ......

India_18th_century.JPG


Please also read up about the Third Battle of Panipat and the Anglo-Maratha Wars.

@Joe Shearer @third eye @Bang Galore

Although this is speculative history, it does look that way from today's perspective.

Their (the Marathas) only rivals would have been the Sikhs, after Panipat III set the Marathas back a decade or so. They were rapidly approaching hegemony. Down south, they terrorised the Nizam, bottled up Hyder Ali and left Tipu to expand towards Malabar; perhaps Tipu might have expanded into the Coromandel coast as well, given the power vacuum there that the British and the French both jumped into.

In the east, they owned Bengal. There are still folk songs about their harsh collections of tribute. They could have knocked off Awadh at any time, given the pacifist nature and the generally run-down character of the Awadh military. The Rohillas set up the massacre at Panipat because they knew what was coming; after the recovery, they did face the music.

The Punjab, the hill states, Kashmir and the further reaches of Bengal and Assam were beyond their influence then. Even the Rajputs had succumbed. Their military model, with the four great families of Gaekwad, Holkar, Scindia and Bhonsle given charters by the central administration to expand their own appanages, was flexible and allowed for local decisions to be made quickly.

There is little doubt that they could have crushed a southern rival or rivals in fairly quick order. If Panipat had not happened, Punjab would have fallen in short order; it is worth remembering that only the Abdali weakening at Panipat allowed the Sikh power to come up, and given the momentum the Marathas had built up, their domination was fairly certain.

Good point, @vsdoc
 
Although this is speculative history, it does look that way from today's perspective.

Their (the Marathas) only rivals would have been the Sikhs, after Panipat III set the Marathas back a decade or so. They were rapidly approaching hegemony. Down south, they terrorised the Nizam, bottled up Hyder Ali and left Tipu to expand towards Malabar; perhaps Tipu might have expanded into the Coromandel coast as well, given the power vacuum there that the British and the French both jumped into.

In the east, they owned Bengal. There are still folk songs about their harsh collections of tribute. They could have knocked off Awadh at any time, given the pacifist nature and the generally run-down character of the Awadh military. The Rohillas set up the massacre at Panipat because they knew what was coming; after the recovery, they did face the music.

The Punjab, the hill states, Kashmir and the further reaches of Bengal and Assam were beyond their influence then. Even the Rajputs had succumbed. Their military model, with the four great families of Gaekwad, Holkar, Scindia and Bhonsle given charters by the central administration to expand their own appanages, was flexible and allowed for local decisions to be made quickly.

There is little doubt that they could have crushed a southern rival or rivals in fairly quick order. If Panipat had not happened, Punjab would have fallen in short order; it is worth remembering that only the Abdali weakening at Panipat allowed the Sikh power to come up, and given the momentum the Marathas had built up, their domination was fairly certain.

Good point, @vsdoc

My next point sir would be that the British came at exactly the right point in time to prevent the eventual and ultimately natural Indian push-back to Mughal imperialism towards the formation of what is popularly today called Akhand Bharat.

In the context of what transpired two centuries later, they came at the right point in time for Pakistan and Pakistanis.

And as a corollary to the same, once the Attock to Cuttack span of the Maratha empire became a military reality, the next possible and very probable target would have been Safavid Persia.

Though by then the Great Game was on in real earnest and the Russians chasing their war water ports would have had something to say about that. Maybe the French as well.

So Daneshmand makes a good point about the buffer state (Pakistan) between the two civilizations.

The only fly in the ointment being that the buffer state was carved out of both civilizations. Leaving everyone suitably miserable and generally antsy all around. Cue and fast forward to 2015 ..... :D
 
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My next point sir would be that the British came at exactly the right point in time to prevent the eventual and ultimately natural Indian push-back to Mughal imperialism towards the formation of what is popularly today called Akhand Bharat.

In the context of what transpired two centuries later, they came at the right point in time for Pakistan and Pakistanis.

And as a corollary to the same, once the Attock to Cuttack span of the Maratha empire became a military reality, the next possible and very probable target would have been Safavid Persia.

Though by then the Great Game was on in real earnest and the Russians chasing their war water ports would have had something to say about that. Maybe the French as well.

So Daneshmand makes a good point about the buffer state (Pakistan) between the two civilizations.

The only fly in the ointment being that the buffer state was carved out of both civilizations. Leaving everyone suitably miserable and generally antsy all around. Cue and fast forward to 2015 ..... :D

That was a terrible post, particularly considering the antecedents of the poster.

The light cavalry army that was so effective in the plains of the Deccan, and even in the thickly populated upper Indian plains, just fell apart when facing the heavier horses and better cavalry of the Afghan-Indian composite that beat them. Surprisingly, the Maratha artillery was better, brilliantly served as it was by Ibrahim Gardi and his very professional corps (one reason why they killed him with such sadistic brutality after the battle). But it was nowhere on the standards or the lines of the British Horse Artillery that was just coming in and giving continental armies a very hard time.

A step back to see the state of the military world wide (actually, only Asia and Europe; pulling in the Japanese and Chinese aspects would take too long). In Europe, Marlborough and Savoy had humbled French pride in the War of the Spanish Succession; although the victories were extremely bloody, there was a great deal of expansion of the military system. This war, and the contribution of Marlborough to first, British war-fighting, later, to European, and through that, global methods of waging war, was the efficient supply and commissariat system. The British Army was able to march 12 to 14 miles a day, about 250 miles could be covered in less than 45 days. Compare that to the lumbering pace of all south Asian forces which were not cavalry forces. Their discipline, too, was exemplary; Minden was just two years before Panipat III, but the calm resolution of a British infantryman, which allowed the guards to be marched up to the manned and firing palisade at Blenheim, and holding their fire until their Brigadier had stuck his sword in the palisade, was already formed and ready. Where was an Indian equivalent?

In the year of the Spanish Succession, Louis XIV maintained an army of over 370,000 men (the Pakistan Army in 1947 was half of that). But more than numbers, it was military skill and organisation. Division into army corps would have to wait for more than 40 years after Panipat III. However, regiments, brigades and divisions existed, and were regular formations, commanded (often, not invariably; the professionalisation of armed forces was to go on and on for another two hundred years.

The point being?

The point is that Indian armies, in those days, before the 19th century incursion of a number of refugees from war-ravaged Europe, were still just a step ahead, an artillery park ahead of mediaeval military organisation.

There is zip possibility that a south Asian army would have hurt Persia, IMHO. They might even have struggled through Afghanistan, although in my opinion even that would have been doubtful; the fighting elan of the Sikhs was still a few decades away, although they had started guerrilla attacks on the Abdali troops by then. I fail to see even the remotest possibility of Safavid Persia being attacked - successfully attacked, that is.

You can do better than that, @vsdoc . I'm sure you wouldn't have to search too hard for a mentor.
 
please section-ban all of them @Serpentine . we've had enough today , no need for a turk-arab rivalry in our section .

Well, it is not exactly Arab - Turk rivalry. He hated it when I said something good about Kurds, and my own opinion about the Kurdish state thinking that he will change my mind. I responded by celebrating Eid joyfully with my love for Kurdistan. You are Kurd too so you shouldn't be that upset!

Is there a beauty that comes close to the beauty of Kurdish women? What about these women's bravery and the importance they assume to themselves? So fascinating.
 
@Daneshmand

As an Indian, may I suggest that you read up about the Marathas?

This was the Maratha empire just before the British came ......

India_18th_century.JPG


Please also read up about the Third Battle of Panipat and the Anglo-Maratha Wars.

@Joe Shearer @third eye @Bang Galore

I see your point. But as I said in my original comment, I am not an expert in alternate "realities". I think such alternate scenarios would make for a great novel but not much can be learnt from them. We have to stick with realities and work out the reasons for existence of those realities.
 
@haman10,

BTW, believe it or not, most Arabs owe something to Kurds because of Salah Eddeen Ayyobi. Yes, one man made a beautiful picture of a whole race (true story). Otherwise, the vast majority of Arabs have very limited information about Kurds, although we assume good things towards them because they are mostly Sunni Muslims. Too many Kurds have also assimilated with Iraqis and Syrians in the last 6-10 centuries. No serious racial issues were encountered except with the rise of nationalism in the 19th - 20th century. Also, the opposition towards the Iraqi regime after the invasion of Kuwait exploited the massacres of Kurds to draw a very sad situation for the Kurds. I grew up in that environment, hence my admiration of Kurds.
 
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All in all , mobile networks in Iran are just ridiculous and embarrassing for a country like Iran . i live in kermanshah , one of the "kalan shahr's" of Iran and i live in it's best neighborhood , yet i've got no signal from my MTN simcard unless i put my phone near the windows .

my RighTel sim card is almost the same with the exception that i get one bar inside the house as well .

my dad has Irancell and his phone gets better signals , yet the internet speed is SHIITTY .

the only way you can have good internet speed in my city is by being a customer of HIWEB , a high-speed ISP .

thats it .

There are several issues causing such a poor service. In context of mobile networks service quality, an important aspect is the RF Engineering of these systems. Competent RF engineers particularly those specializing in system design were lacking in Iran. Though I do not know how is the situation right now in Iran. In most of the third world it was the Western engineers who were either designing the network in these countries or they were training the local engineers for this task.

But because of political climate of Iran, often it was the mobile operators of third world countries who came to Iran and built Iran's mobile infrastructure eg. South Africans or Turks. In other third world countries it was Japanese, American, French, Norwegian and Canadian companies who were designing and building the systems for them. I am sure you would agree there would be a big difference between a Turk engineer designing the RF map of Kermanshah and a Japanese engineer doing it.

Then you have bottlenecks in Iran. For example Iran is one of the most internet savvy countries of the world. But there is almost no large hosting facilities in Iran. Even Iran's banks and government used to host their servers in China, Europe and America. This puts a huge pressure on the network. And the reason for absence of hosting services again has to do with political environment of the country since no major internet company will set up shop in Iran and the Iran's business sector hardly invests in such sectors as well as technically there are huge gaps to be filled since Iran can not even manufacture simple routers let alone big servers.

And another big factor is the monopoly business structure of Iran which runs not on competition but on rent. A certain organization or entity buys the companies in a sector monopolizing it and collects the rent. This kills competition with the inevitable result of drop in service quality and/or increase in prices. A similar thing underlines the problems in other sectors of Iran's economy from car industry to housing.

Last but not least there are other factors which are not as important as the above but they play their role. For example, the lack of technology to design and implement the kind of internet surveillance for national security which Western countries or China can, often results in lack of interest on the part of government to expand and modernize the network. Since they fear with importing and implementing a modern system which they have no deep understanding of and have not themselves designed or manufactured, they are putting the political stability of the country at risk. These are valid reasons but are simultaneously poor excuses.
 
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