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Iranian Air Defense Systems

The 13 years is one point. Another is Irans restricted access to cooperation, tool, technology and even access to COTS hardware.
With the current pace, a rank among the top 7 is well possible in the next years.
UK, Sweden, Japan, Netherlands, Italy, Germany also rely very much on European-wide or US support.

My apologies ahead of time for even asking the following but this story of the supposed Israeli F-35 'Adir' incursion into Iranian airspace subsequently circling around multiple different Iranian cities whilst never even being seen, comes around every so often and I usually dismiss it as low-ball propaganda. But I wondered if maybe you can give us a more detailed explanation as to why such a scenario is just not feasible (at least this is what I think to be case).

Link to article:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...5-stealth-fighters-had-violated-iran-airspace
 
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My apologies ahead of time for even asking the following but this story of the supposed Israeli F-35 'Adir' incursion into Iranian airspace subsequently circling around multiple different Iranian cities whilst never even being seen, comes around every so often and I usually dismiss it as low-ball propaganda. But I wondered if maybe you can give us a more detailed explanation as to why such a scenario is just not feasible (at least this is what I think to be case).
Link to article:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...5-stealth-fighters-had-violated-iran-airspace


It's impossible, since F-35 physically unable to fly over such distances.
This is max combat range of Israeli F-35 only with AA weapon in internal bays from official info of Lockheed Martin. As we can see, in reality, F-35 from Israel able to reach only the most western regions of Iran. F-35 cannot even fly direct to Tehran if he wants to return. Therefore, the route announced in such articles through Tehran-Isfahan-Shiraz-Bender-Abbas it's a non-scientific fiction.
http://www.fisher.org.il/2016/Adir Powepoint/GaryNorth.pdf#page=7
 

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My apologies ahead of time for even asking the following but this story of the supposed Israeli F-35 'Adir' incursion into Iranian airspace subsequently circling around multiple different Iranian cities whilst never even being seen, comes around every so often and I usually dismiss it as low-ball propaganda. But I wondered if maybe you can give us a more detailed explanation as to why such a scenario is just not feasible (at least this is what I think to be case).

Link to article:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...5-stealth-fighters-had-violated-iran-airspace

This fantasy story was debunked already many times. It was a fake story made by some Kuwaitis.

For one, Esmaili was not fired, he was promoted for god sakes :lol: He is now the assistant commander of Iran Army!

It seems the Khameni is very impressed with him and they're preparing him for something big.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/134524/Brig-Gen-Esmaili-named-assistant-commander-of-Iran-Army


As for technical discussion, this plane cannot even reach Iran nevermind the fact Iran would detect it easily if it was anywhere near its airspace. "stealth" just means a plane would have to be relatively closer to the radar to be detected compared to lets say a 4th gen planes , once they get close enough, their "stealth" is gone. Having said that, Iran can detect such planes 100's of miles outside its airspace using it's long wavelength radars. People need to realise detecting such planes is easy. Targeting/locking on to them is more difficult but still very doable.
 
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Based on what you say, then the 3rd Khordad system would not be very effective against stealth fighters when the telecommunications have been jammed. I mean if it can't get the coordinates from the central search radar then it is left with its own search capacity which may not be enough.

Seems like 15th Khordad is a better design for Iran's mosaic doctrine.

It depends on how far your target is, the terrain, how many systems you have, how well hidden they can remain & how fast they can go operational and how well trained your crews are...
But yes 3rd of Khordad by it's self would have trouble against stealth aircraft for example even flying at an attitude 3000ft as close as ~60km away due to the curvature of the earth a fighter with an RCS as small as a golf ball would be beyond the capabilities of the 3rd of khordad even if you knew exactly where to search and that number only worsens depending on the terrain and weather conditions. And if your out there searching rather than laying in wait for an ambush the American will have the capability to hit you long before you can find and hit them.

This doesn't mean the system isn't effective, it is but as long as you know how to properly use it & it's proper use is with other systems and I'm pretty sure Iran knows that the main way you use a system like that is to lay in wait in hiding until the enemy gets close enough where with the assistance of other systems you can go radar on, get a lock, fire & hit your target in under a min then pack up and move back into hiding. Short of that American fighter jets wouldn't be coming into our territory to be used as target practice they are coming for war & they have well trained pilots equipped with far more advanced sensors and equipment than we do. Which also mean due to Iran's lack of proper Air Power such systems would have to be deployed in mass due to our terrain & we have to be prepared to take on heavy losses.
 
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Has Iran actually received 4 battalions of S-300PMU 2? Apparently the actual delivered numbers is less than it, even if we include the first unit delivered before sanctions, which was most probably PMU1 version. I suspect the units in Syria are actually Iranian orders.
 
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My apologies ahead of time for even asking the following but this story of the supposed Israeli F-35 'Adir' incursion into Iranian airspace subsequently circling around multiple different Iranian cities whilst never even being seen, comes around every so often and I usually dismiss it as low-ball propaganda. But I wondered if maybe you can give us a more detailed explanation as to why such a scenario is just not feasible (at least this is what I think to be case).

Link to article:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...5-stealth-fighters-had-violated-iran-airspace

The good thing about fighter jets are their vast tactical uses, more so in non high-intensity was scenarios.
Israeli F-15 used U.S IIF codes to be mistaken as USAF F-15s and attacked from a totally unexpected vector.
Israeli special mission drones operated form Azerbaijan.

So the biggest issue, the range limitation, of the F-35 could have been solved via a disguised in flight refueling or cooperation from Irans enemies (USAF tanker, Saudi tanker, Bahrain or Azerbaijan airbases, airliner IIF codes)


That's the tactical toolbox they can play with.

From Irans side there are also limitations: If the IADS is not in alarm state of an incoming conflict, many of its assets will not be active. Emission control (to keep system signature, capability and position secret) and MTBF issues with especially gap fillers will keep them off, in situations like today's tension level.
Hence the IADS operates at around 25% of its nominal capability.

Knowing this another tool is created for the Israelis: If they know which systems are off and carefully study the terrain, they can use masking and radar horizon effects to plan a flight profile that avoids Irans IADS assets to its best and allows higher level flight, where possible, to increase range performance.

Ok, so this is the situation. Such a situation lead a small prop aircraft to intrude into highly dense Soviet airspace and land in Moscow at the end of the cold war. Back then Soviet IADS was at an impressively high state, their terrain was almost flat (almost no terrain masking possible), and the prop aircraft had no intel on best possible flight path. They eventually detected it and has issues with justifying a shot down of a civilian aircraft but the PR damage to their capability was done.

So this is the situation.
If I'm asked, I would say yes it is possible if the Israelis did their best use of all those tactics.
Would it be possible above Tehran, Shiraz and Esfahan? A clear no.
Would it have any added value which space based assets would not provide? Doubtful.
Would it be a representative display of Irans war-sate IADS capability? Absolutely not.
Would it create a psychological effect on IADS professionals? No. On amateurs? Likely.
Would it be possible if Irans next generation OTHR assets become available? Almost impossible.

Do I think Israelis are confident and brave enough to risk such a operation? I doubt that: Many Iranian IADS capabilities are unknown, sudden appearance of a mobile system somewhere or non-Radar IR assets, all could lead to a catastrophic end.
Clean F-35 stealth performance is simply not good enough, neither its range/speed performance to make such a mission justifiably robust. But maybe they had excellent planning´, excellent intel, support from Irans enemies, very brave/PR-blinded pilots and ready to risk it.
So I don't exclude it on regions around Irans periphery.
 
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The good thing about fighter jets are their vast tactical uses, more so in non high-intensity was scenarios.
Israeli F-15 used U.S IIF codes to be mistaken as USAF F-15s and attacked from a totally unexpected vector.
Israeli special mission drones operated form Azerbaijan.

So the biggest issue, the range limitation, of the F-35 could have been solved via a disguised in flight refueling or cooperation from Irans enemies (USAF tanker, Saudi tanker, Bahrain or Azerbaijan airbases, airliner IIF codes)


That's the tactical toolbox they can play with.

From Irans side there are also limitations: If the IADS is not in alarm state of an incoming conflict, many of its assets will not be active. Emission control (to keep system signature, capability and position secret) and MTBF issues with especially gap fillers will keep them off, in situations like today's tension level.
Hence the IADS operates at around 25% of its nominal capability.

Knowing this another tool is created for the Israelis: If they know which systems are off and carefully study the terrain, they can use masking and radar horizon effects to plan a flight profile that avoids Irans IADS assets to its best and allows higher level flight, where possible, to increase range performance.

Ok, so this is the situation. Such a situation lead a small prop aircraft to intrude into highly dense Soviet airspace and land in Moscow at the end of the cold war. Back then Soviet IADS was at an impressively high state, their terrain was almost flat (almost no terrain masking possible), and the prop aircraft had no intel on best possible flight path. They eventually detected it and has issues with justifying a shot down of a civilian aircraft but the PR damage to their capability was done.

So this is the situation.
If I'm asked, I would say yes it is possible if the Israelis did their best use of all those tactics.
Would it be possible above Tehran, Shiraz and Esfahan? A clear no.
Would it have any added value which space based assets would not provide? Doubtful.
Would it be a representative display of Irans war-sate IADS capability? Absolutely not.
Would it create a psychological effect on IADS professionals? No. On amateurs? Likely.
Would it be possible if Irans next generation OTHR assets become available? Almost impossible.

Do I think Israelis are confident and brave enough to risk such a operation? I doubt that: Many Iranian IADS capabilities are unknown, sudden appearance of a mobile system somewhere or non-Radar IR assets, all could lead to a catastrophic end.
Clean F-35 stealth performance is simply not good enough, neither its range/speed performance to make such a mission justifiably robust. But maybe they had excellent planning´, excellent intel, support from Irans enemies, very brave/PR-blinded pilots and ready to risk it.
So I don't exclude it on regions around Irans periphery.
I think the question is what would they gain from such a great risk? Yes if they have destroyed a valuable target, then yes it would BA great PR and a big adverse psychological effect on Iran military.

But all this risk of giving away the latest and greatest western technology to Iran to just show it can be done? I would say they are not that stupid. What if Iran would just by chance detect it and shoot it down? First, it would be an act of war and Iran had every right to fire its missiles. Just remember that even now in Syria, Israel doesn't risk entering Syrian airspace. Second, Iran, Russia and China could learn a lot from the remains of F35.

This just doesn't make sense. I don't believe it even if it is physically possible.
 
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