Iran-US escalation thread.

[sepasgozar]

Fellow forum members,

There is rumour of an imminent strike on Iranian infrastructure in the fashion of a limited strike. This is in retaliation to what -- a takedown of a hostile drone on Iranian airspace? I doubt the rumour is valid, because I know that any strike on Iranian infrastructure on Iranian soil (whether it be missile batteries, naval installations, bases, etc.) will open Pandora's box in such a way that there will be no end to this war. Everything the US stands for in the Middle East will be jeopardized. If this attack is conducted, even in the fashion of a so-called 'limited strike', then Iran will be required to retaliate. This will ensue a chain reaction of retaliatory escalations, and before we know it, another war. Please mark my words... there will be no such attack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1141866431665049600

https://twitter.com/x/status/1141873214206988290

 

[zectech]

Before escalation, Iran needs to know what Amerikan bases are off limits. They need to ask Turkey and other legit governments, will they allow their territory be used as a launch pad to destroy Iranian assets. If they say yes, then they are legit military targets. If they ground Amerikans, then they are off targets. This diplomacy needs to be had before conflict escalates.

 

[Arminkh]

If they haven't already learned that there is no such thing as achieving deterrence with Iranians then not sure if they will ever learn.

I can't see any limited strikes that would not cause human casualties which is too high for just losing a drone. Iran would definitely sink any ship that has fired those missiles or destroy the airports that the airplanes flew from. In another word, we will have the official start of a full fledged war

 

[Kastor]

Well, I said it was a mistake to shoot that drone, because it didn't send much of a message, but now they're forced to send a message....we will see what comes of this. I've only been warning of not taking Bolton/Pompeo's bait for a year now....but here we are taking the bait. The IRGC needs to be reigned in, they think they're an organ of the government rather than the military.

 

[TheImmortal]

Nothing has been decided yet.

So I have no idea who those sources are or where they get their information from.

I would be surprised if US strikes Iran mainland in any shape or form. First of all a drone was shot down. Nobody goes to war over a drone.

Possible airstrike by US on an Iran drone base in Syria in an contested theater with Iran getting advanced notification via third parties is a possibility. Or US shoots down an Iranian drone that gets close to their warships in PG.

But a strike on Iranian soil is a major escalation.

 

[Kastor]

Nothing has been decided yet.

So I have no idea who those sources are or where they get their information from.

I would be surprised if US strikes Iran mainland in any shape or form. First of all a drone was shot down. Nobody goes to war over a drone.

Possible airstrike by US on an Iran drone base in Syria in an contested theater with Iran getting advanced notification via third parties is a possibility. Or US shoots down an Iranian drone that gets close to their warships in PG.

But a strike on Iranian soil is a major escalation.

There had been talks and reports on the news from various govt officials that one scenario would be to take out the SAM site that fired the missile.

 

[arashkamangir]

Trump, due to his stupidity, has locked himself with no choice. All his choices are bad:
1. If he strikes Iran:
- he will push away his voters who are isolationists and dont want another war. Any strike against Iran will result in a proportional response if not more.
2. If he does not strike Iran:
- he will push away Saudi/Israeli lobby and typical pro war lobbyists from military industrial complex.

Both choices are bad for his presidency and general Republican politics.

I think Trump administration is talking with Iran in the background on how to respond to prevent further escalation. The reason I say this is that today he mentioned:

- Iran accidentally launched and its all due to a single persons fault and that Iran didn't really want to shoot down the UAV.
- He was also trying to convey that this shouldn't be blown out of proportion but there will be some sort of response.

That is the only way to ensure Iran would not response is to actually check them. That is Iran give Trump permission to strike a meaningless target just so that Trump could save face and get out of this political choke. In exchange US would back the F*** off of the sanctions or something else. Please let me know if there are other ways to ensure Iran wouldn't respond.

I strongly believe that If US fire anything, it would be from ships and if that is the case, Iran would definitely fire back at the ships. This will result in major human casualties and will only further escalate.

 

[Arminkh]

There had been talks and reports on the news from various govt officials that one scenario would be to take out the SAM site that fired the missile.

Well good luck to them doing that. That's a mobile launcher. It could be anywhere now.

 

[Yaseen1]

i think world should be prepared for iranian refugee crisis.iran not has satellite system to help them in carrying out precision strikes at u.s assets in middleeast,u.s will carry out more precision and accurate strikes and iran will bear more damage than u.s

 

[Arminkh]

Look at the clown act by trump against China. trump issues tariffs on 200 Billion worth of goods. China issues tariffs on 10 billion worth of goods. trump issues tariffs on 300 billion worth of good. China lightly hit trump. trump smashes China in the face.

trump's responses are so out of line. trump murders civilians over a fake Syrian chemical weapon false flag.

Simply know that for the tit for tat means for every spy drone downed, trump vomits it can bomb Iran back to the stone age for downing a spy plane. trump is an unstable buffoon.



Lowly depth of clownery on the part of the Amerikans. Shows the mentality of the clowns in Washington. Brain dead buffoons. This is a middle school bully response.

Your science experiment made me look dumb, so Washington bully will burn down your science experiment.

Welcome to Washington...

The only problem is Iran is not China and US should know that by now. Iran has nothing to lose and nothing is more dangerous than a person or a country who has nothing to lose

 

[Falcon29]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1141896028314095622

 

[arashkamangir]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1141896028314095622

Good, let them come.

 

[Falcon29]

Good, let them come.

Who?

 

[Kastor]

The only problem is Iran is not China and US should know that by now. Iran has nothing to lose and nothing is more dangerous than a person or a country who has nothing to lose

I've been preaching about smart, covert action to raise oil prices and frustrate the enemy by leaving no footprints. Just ratcheting up tension through indirect means, either by proxy, cyber or covert. I have said many times not to go head on with these Neocons because Bolton and Pompeo need provocation to sell their plan. Now, we have given them the ammo. I don't understand who makes these decisions inside Iran, if it was IRGC or was it the President....but whoever it was I hope he gets called in for a grilling. The U.S. is saying they also have verifiable proof that the drone was in Int'l waters. If we are correct then they better be broadcasting this proof worldwide. If we don't have solid proof then this a major f*ck up by someone our military and he better have answers. You shoot down a superpowers's drone only when you have irrefutable proof they've violated your air space. Now, this escalation will lead to more and bigger escalation if mistakes are repeated. Just like Trump doesn't have an Iran policy we don't have a US policy...it's all a crapshoot, the blind leading the blind. We need to figure out where we're going....are we going to wait out the election or not, are we going to war or what? What will the war look like, who can win, or who can gain.....all of these need to worked out to a "T"....no one should start a shooting war unless you know what will happen next. This is an unnecessary escalation. Next month the IAEA will report we have exceeded our enriched uranium level, then what? Anyone worked out that scenario yet? What kind of escalation will that cause with Europe? Dammit man, this is useless.

 

[arashkamangir]

Who?

The Americans. They are falling into Iran's death trap.