Iran has the highest nominal GDP in the Middle East: post JCPOA potential

[925boy]

I believe like Obama admin times this is the ideal circumstance for Iran to grow its pockets and weaponization program as much as we can. Most of our BM/CM/UCAV/AD programs advanced during the Obama years while we were heavily damaging the US in Iraq and also fighting in Syria, a war that we won. Republicans are unstable neo-con thugs so the current Democratic administration which I think will extend into the subsequent tenure too is ideal for Iran. JCPOA talks even if they fail would not hurt us a bit, we can enrich up U235, and keep exporting to China, Iraq, Turkey, UAE, Japan, Korea, and India as major partners. What would US/Israel do? nothing. West needs allies in the east not any more enemies with this new Russian-Chinese problem at their face.

As for the birth rate, we are actually doing a bit better than Ahmadinejad's times when the birth rate dropped to an all-time low of 1.6, right now it is healthy at 2.14 and may increase up to ~2.5 in coming years. Probably we should attract some devoted Shia families from groups like Azeris, Turkish Alevis, Iraqi, and Tajiks. At some level, it is already happening. Iran has received Gorjis, and Armenians in past so we are an absorbing nation.

While i generally agree with you, i just wanted to point out a part that isnt asssss sure as you think it is:

and keep exporting to China, Iraq, Turkey, UAE, Japan, Korea, and India as major partners.

The 3 highlighted countries you mentioned have proven historically to not be as reliable as Iran probably preferred - they've all supported US pressure or/and sanctions on Iran,especially around oil. Just sayin! lol

All the countries I listed are Irano-Turkic like Iran itself and are majority Shias or have a large number of Shia populations like Azerbaijan Rep, Iraq, Turkey.

Ok, but i have a big curiosity maybe you could help me understand then? - What is really the difference between Iranian "Shia" Islam and Turkish "Alevi" Islam?

 

[_Nabil_]

Ok, but i have a big curiosity maybe you could help me understand then? - What is really the difference between Iranian "Shia" Islam and Turkish "Alevi" Islam?

If this is accurate :

Alevism - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Then Sunni are closer to Shia than Alevi are to Shia....

 

[drmeson]

If this is accurate :

Alevism - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Then Sunni are closer to Shia than Alevi are to Shia....

Alevis are not by any chance closer to Sunnis. They have mainstream Shia beliefs like 12 Imams but with Bektashi Ghulut beliefs added. Imam Khomeini called them Muslims though.

 

[drmeson]

While i generally agree with you, i just wanted to point out a part that isnt asssss sure as you think it is:



The 3 highlighted countries you mentioned have proven historically to not be as reliable as Iran probably preferred - they've all supported US pressure or/and sanctions on Iran,especially around oil. Just sayin! lol


Ok, but i have a big curiosity maybe you could help me understand then? - What is really the difference between Iranian "Shia" Islam and Turkish "Alevi" Islam?

No one is a friend in international politics. When you do business, you grab every opportunity no matter who stands in whose camp. One of our biggest trade partners is a NATO member Turkey. They have been our historical rivals too, in recent times we countered their proxy war to unsettle our ally in Damascus, still, we are doing business with them and it may actually increase in the coming time. Japan, Korea, and India are just export markets for us and nothing else.

 

[_Nabil_]

Alevis are not by any chance closer to Sunnis. They have mainstream Shia beliefs like 12 Imams but with Bektashi Ghulut beliefs added. Imam Khomeini called them Muslims though.

Did you have read the Wikipedia article?

Difference between Shia vs Sunni is "Political"

Difference between Shia, Sunni vs Alevi is within the Akida

 

[Leishangthem]

nothing surprising considering its population.

 

[drmeson]

Did you have read the Wikipedia article?

Difference between Shia vs Sunni is "Political"

Difference between Shia, Sunni vs Alevi is within the Akida

This is why I used the word Ghulat, read about it.

 

[Hack-Hook]

True. Now I remember how some commenters were deriding the Raisi administration, suggesting it is "no different" from the Rohani-led one, that it's willing to make unacceptable disproportionate concessions to the west only to have the JCPOA revived, and so on.

Not that I ever had any serious doubts, but now it's abundantly clear that under Raisi, Iran is not going to compromise with the bullies and zurguyān (زورگویان). It's a javānmard, honorable, upright and powerful style of foreign policy Iran is practicing with revolutionaries in charge. May God bless them.

Yes, the zio-American enemy is shooting itself in the foot. Both with Trump's foregone antics, which gave Iran all the political justifications she needs in terms of expanding her nuclear program, as well as with excessive antagonizing of Russia over the Ukrainian dossier, Moscow's steadfast response and irrational western sanctions policies encouraging nations of the south to gradually and selectively shake off the western yoke.

Multipolarism and development of south-south relations in, unipolar hegemony of the west out. Fantastic perspectives I must say. I take my hat off to the Iranian Leadership for its wise outlook resulting in these sophisticated, intelligent policies which have kept steering the nation into a favorable position, against colossal odds. Stars are aligned for Iran and the future is bright.

_____



Stable is okay, but beware demographic recession and ageing. That's a huge threat, including to economic stability.

if a family have 2-3 children , the population will remain stable , and the country can support them , if its more then it will fail , we have been there and we saw what happen .
our problem is that we always fall from one side , always go to an extreme .
for mor than 2-3 child per family we will have problem providing , job, food , education ,energy and the most important of all , water

Ok, but i have a big curiosity maybe you could help me understand then? - What is really the difference between Iranian "Shia" Islam and Turkish "Alevi" Islam?

the difference is Alevi are not Shia at all and our alliance with them is political not a religious one

 

[SalarHaqq]

if a family have 2-3 children , the population will remain stable , and the country can support them , if its more then it will fail , we have been there and we saw what happen .
our problem is that we always fall from one side , always go to an extreme .
for mor than 2-3 child per family we will have problem providing , job, food , education ,energy and the most important of all , water

I didn't advocate more than three children. But Iran's concern right now isn't a fertility rate greater than 3, it's the opposite. To ensure demographic self-renewal, the rate must be superior to 2,1. Right now it seems to have fallen below this crucial limit, so a sustainable increase to between 2 and 3 is the need of the hour.

Contemporary international experience has shown that unless the issue is tackled immediately and seriously, it will become practically impossible to bring about an increase in fertility rates, whereas reduction of those same rates through public policies is far more achievable.

So here Iran needs to act quickly, decisively and rationally, unless it wants to squander huge sums on vain attempts to reverse the trend, similar to south Korea which spent no less than 121 billion USD so far to no avail, or be forced to open up national borders for wild multi-cultural mass immigration and cope with the consequences, namely the undermining of national identity.

the difference is Alevi are not Shia at all and our alliance with them is political not a religious one

Imam Khomeini (r) ruled that they are Shia, but of course this is not to say all their beliefs are acceptable from an orthodox Ja'fari Twelver Shia perspective.

Also, it's important to note that Alawism, as practiced mostly in western Syria, and Alevism which is to be found predominantly in Turkey, are not the same sect and their beliefs differ.

 

[drmeson]

I did not advocate more than three children on average per female. The fertility rate needs to be superior to 2,1 to ensure demographic renewal. Right now it seems to have fallen below that crucial limit, so a sustainable increase to between 2 and 3 is what's needed.

Contemporary international experience has shown that unless the issue is tackled immediately and seriously, bringing about an increase of the fertility rate is practically impossible, whereas reduction of fertility rates through public policy is far easier.



Imam Khomeini (r) ruled that they are Shia, but that doesn't imply all their beliefs are acceptable from an orthodox Ja'fari Twelver Shia perspective.

Also, it's important to note that Alawism, as practiced mostly in western Syria, and Alevism which is predominantly to be found in Turkey, are not the same sect and their beliefs are not identical.

The fertility rate is 2.14 currently which is healthy and may increase/stabilize to 2.2-2.4 in this decade. Like I said before it was worst during the Ahmadinejad era because of stupid most policies like the promotion of small families in the 1990s by the Rafsanjani and Khatami pot-headed governments.

To think a theocratic nation that needs a larger and sustained workforce, we may need future migrant devout Shia families of Iranic or Irano Turkic descent. The best Candidates are Azeris from Rep., Iraqi Shia Turkoman, Turkish Alevis, Kurds, Syrian Alawites, Lebanese and Tajiks. These groups are already living in iran for some time now in whatever form.

-Many of the Azeris including myself descent from early Iranian Turkoman settlements in eastern Anatolia. A few also ran back to Iran from Republic during WWII.
-Iraqi Shias are already in high numbers in Tehran, in case anyone has been to Dowlatabad, it's like little Baghdad.
-Kurds of Iraq/Turkey have always preferred Iran for refuge. List of Iraqi and Kurdish rep. have been educated in Iran or have lived in Iran for some considerable time. Both current Iraqi and Kurdish PM, President (Barzani leeches) have got their education inside Iran.
-We have ~2 Million strong Afghan migrants including many Tajiks and Hazaras

The amazing thing is that these groups get Iranicised very quickly.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The fertility rate is 2.14 currently which is healthy and may increase/stabilize to 2.2-2.4 in this decade. Like I said before it was worst during the Ahmadinejad era because of stupid most policies like the promotion of small families in the 1990s by the Rafsanjani and Khatami pot-headed governments.

To think a theocratic nation that needs a larger and sustained workforce, we may need future migrant devout Shia families of Iranic or Irano Turkic descent. The best Candidates are Azeris from Rep., Iraqi Shia Turkoman, Turkish Alevis, Kurds, Syrian Alawites, Lebanese and Tajiks. These groups are already living in iran for some time now in whatever form.

-Many of the Azeris including myself descent from early Iranian Turkoman settlements in eastern Anatolia. A few also ran back to Iran from Republic during WWII.
-Iraqi Shias are already in high numbers in Tehran, in case anyone has been to Dowlatabad, it's like little Baghdad.
-Kurds of Iraq/Turkey have always preferred Iran for refuge. List of Iraqi and Kurdish rep. have been educated in Iran or have lived in Iran for some considerable time. Both current Iraqi and Kurdish PM, President (Barzani leeches) have got their education inside Iran.
-We have ~2 Million strong Afghan migrants including many Tajiks and Hazaras

The amazing thing is that these groups get Iranicised very quickly.

Apparently there's no consensus on the fertility rate, as with many figures relating to Iran. Sometimes different public institutes for statistics even publish diverging figures, depending on their staff's dominant political leaning.

However according to the Statistical Center of Iran, the fertility rate is currently at merely 1,71 children per woman for the previous fiscal year, which if this accurate would be nothing short of a disaster. And if authorities do not immediately, and I mean immediately, implement everything in their power to reverse this, we are faced with a national catastrophe of untold proportions. If the rate stabilizes at such a level or even decreases for another three to five years, it'll be over, mark my words.

The Supreme Leader in person has recently warned against this extreme hazard:

Khamenei warns Iranians of danger in declining birth rate

Iran’s Supreme Leader has encouraged officials to continue the work of increasing the birth rate, but that is a challenge even in economically prosperous countries.

www.al-monitor.com

No amount of efforts or money spent will help at that point, and mass immigration including from culturally alien lands will be the only remaining solution (those who thought Afghans aren't culturally close enough to us and who blindly rail the Islamic Republic for accepting Afghans will then understand what multi-cultural immigration as witnessed in the west actually means).

I fear the communities you mention aren't going to cut it if demographic decay becomes a lasting feature in Iran. Plus many of them aren't Shia Muslims - I myself am a staunch advocate of Islamic unity between Shia and Sunni, but cooperation and brotherly ties is one thing, demographic change and ecumenism another.

Iraqi residents in Iran aren't more than 40.000 to 60.000, official statistics are available. As for Afghans, illegal immigrants among them are estimated to total over 3 not 2 million. And as per the latest figures I saw, an additional 800.000 have residence permits or long-term visas, i.e. that some 4 million Afghans. Some say hundreds of thousands more have entered since the Taleban take over in Kabul.

Nowadays nobody emigrates from Azarbaijan Republic to Iran, and they themselves don't have a dynamic demography at all (their fertility rate is in fact below the demographic replacement threshold). Tajikistan's fertility rate is significantly superior even though it has steadily been falling since the 1970's, and even so this is a small country of less than 10 million inhabitants with little emigration except towards the Russian Federation.

Alawis in Syria number no more than 2 to 3 million. As for Lebanon, again a small country of no more than 7 million people, with Shia Muslims numbering around 3 million maximum. Sure, there are anywhere between 4 to 14 million Lebanese and individuals of Lebanese descent in the diaspora, but they're hardly going to leave whatever place they've settled in long ago (including South American and African countries) for Iran.

So the danger is very real, and decisive measures must be taken by the government now, or it'll be too late and Iranian nationhood itself will be erased as a result.

 

[OldTwilight]

The Western has 2 choice :

The Western has 2 choice :
1 - Un sanction powerful Iran which will acquire nukes anyway backed by conventional military power
2- sanction Iran and Iran maybe goes nuclear ...



the western choose option 2 , and our fear is just stoping us from going nukes ... if we put aside fear and become nuclear state , we can act more aggressive and they will eventually have to accept Iran ... just like what they did with China , India , Pakistan , Norh Korea ...

 

[drmeson]

Apparently there's no consensus on the fertility rate, as with many figures relating to Iran. Sometimes different public institutes for statistics even publish diverging figures, depending on their staff's dominant political leaning.

However according to the Statistical Center of Iran, the fertility rate is currently at merely 1,71 children per woman for the previous fiscal year, which if this accurate would be nothing short of a disaster. And if authorities do not immediately, and I mean immediately, implement everything in their power to reverse this, we are faced with a national catastrophe of untold proportions. If the rate stabilizes at such a level or even decreases for another three to five years, it'll be over, mark my words.

The Supreme Leader in person has recently warned against this extreme hazard:

Khamenei warns Iranians of danger in declining birth rate

Iran’s Supreme Leader has encouraged officials to continue the work of increasing the birth rate, but that is a challenge even in economically prosperous countries.

www.al-monitor.com

No amount of efforts or money spent will help at that point, and mass immigration including from culturally alien lands will be the only remaining solution (those who thought Afghans aren't culturally close enough to us and who blindly rail the Islamic Republic for accepting Afghans will then understand what multi-cultural immigration as witnessed in the west actually means).

I fear the communities you mention aren't going to cut it if demographic decay becomes a lasting feature in Iran. Plus many of them aren't Shia Muslims - I myself am a staunch advocate of Islamic unity between Shia and Sunni, but cooperation and brotherly ties is one thing, demographic change and ecumenism another.

Iraqi residents in Iran aren't more than 40.000 to 60.000, official statistics are available. As for Afghans, illegal immigrants among them are estimated to total over 3 not 2 million. And as per the latest figures I saw, an additional 800.000 have residence permits or long-term visas, i.e. that some 4 million Afghans. Some say hundreds of thousands more have entered since the Taleban take over in Kabul.

Nowadays nobody emigrates from Azarbaijan Republic to Iran, and they themselves don't have a dynamic demography at all (their fertility rate is in fact below the demographic replacement threshold). Tajikistan's fertility rate is significantly superior even though it has steadily been falling since the 1970's, and even so this is a small country of less than 10 million inhabitants with little emigration except towards the Russian Federation.

Alawis in Syria number no more than 2 to 3 million. As for Lebanon, again a small country of no more than 7 million people, with Shia Muslims numbering around 3 million maximum. Sure, there are anywhere between 4 to 14 million Lebanese and individuals of Lebanese descent in the diaspora, but they're hardly going to leave whatever place they've settled in long ago (including South American and African countries) for Iran.

So the danger is very real, and decisive measures must be taken by the government now, or it'll be too late and Iranian nationhood itself will be erased as a result.

SCI has given some delusional data over the years, they claimed 2.07 in 2018 then 1.71 in 2019 then again 2.14 in 2021 so they are not a very reliable source of information here.

From my own personal experience, I have yet to come across young families which are small. There are some unmarried people esp the feminist self-hating female army we created in the past two decades but other than that, in Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil, Hamadan, Tehran, and Mashhad (where I know people from), people under 40 have 2-3 kids on average which is one of the reasons Ahmadinejad era disaster numbers of 1.7 has increased to 2.1-2.2. Ahmadinejad himself is not to be blamed here, it was the stupid Governments of Rafsanjani and Khatami who were promoting family planning on TV like a religious duty. In 1987-88 Iran had a fertility rate of 3.5, they dropped it to 1.7 in a matter of 10-12 years with self-hating policies.

You are totally wrong about the multicultural paradigm inside Iran. The ethnicities that have come to settle inside Iran in the past few centuries have adjusted extremely well. Why is that ? they were all from the peripheric Irano/Turkic sphere, none of them are cultural aliens. Qizilbash empires (15th-20th Century) brought in mass numbers of Eastern Anatolians, Transoxanians, Armenians, and Georgians inside Iran, and have we ever heard of any problem from these groups? They were Shia, Sunni, even Christians. They came, got Iranicised and vanished into the local population. Same will happen with the current immigration of Iraqi kurds, Turkmen, Arabs, Afghans, Tajiks, possible future settle of Azeri rep. or Alevis etc.

Also, your numbers are wrong about migrants. Rouhani's government itself gave the following numbers in 15-16:

-Afghan (Major Tajik then Hazara/Pashtun) numbers at around 2.5-3 million, this number may increase in the future with future Afghan financial instability
-Iraqis (Kurds, Turkmen, Shia Arabs) around 0.7-1 Million

We literally have something around ~3.5-4 Million strong migrant body made of Kurds, Tajiks, Iraqi Arabs, and Turkmens. Which of these groups are cultural aliens? none. Cultural alien migrants are North Africans in EU, or Indopaks in Middle east. Our situation is totally different. Religion has never been a hardcore identity among these ethno-nationalist sub-Irano-Turkic ethnicities so Shia Sunni BS does not even matter here.

the increasing birth rate among the Iranian native population and migrants are the reason Iran in recent times has beaten Turkey in Population. All we need is to make sure that no stupid small family propaganda is promoted again inside Iran.

 

[SalarHaqq]

SCI has given some delusional data over the years, they claimed 2.07 in 2018 then 1.71 in 2019 then again 2.14 in 2021 so they are not a very reliable source of information here.

What would the source be for these three numbers? If I'm not mistaken you cited the 2,14 figure in your first reply. If this figure is stemming from the SCI and if the latter is unreliable, what should we settle for?

This said, according to the article I shared from Al-Monitor, the SCI claimed 1,71 for the "previous fiscal year" - the current Iranian year being 1401, the previous year 1400 is thus the one which stretched from March 21, 2021 to March 20, 2022. In that sense 1,71 would be for 2021.

From my own personal experience, I have yet to come across young families which are small. There are some unmarried people esp the feminist self-hating female army we created in the past two decades but other than that, in Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil, Hamadan, Tehran, and Mashhad (where I know people from), people under 40 have 2-3 kids on average which is one of the reasons Ahmadinejad era disaster numbers of 1.7 has increased to 2.1-2.2. Ahmadinejad himself is not to be blamed here, it was the stupid Governments of Rafsanjani and Khatami who were promoting family planning on TV like a religious duty. In 1987-88 Iran had a fertility rate of 3.5, they dropped it to 1.7 in a matter of 10-12 years with self-hating policies.

Glad to read this. However I'm not sure if we should go only with personal experience and nation-wide statistical findings. For my own personal experience tends to diverge somewhat (i.e. I know young couples without children, and also unmarried people who are way past the age range during which Iranians are traditionally supposed to found a family).

You are totally wrong about the multicultural paradigm inside Iran. The ethnicities that have come to settle inside Iran in the past few centuries have adjusted extremely well. Why is that ? they were all from the peripheric Irano/Turkic sphere, none of them are cultural aliens. Qizilbash empires (15th-20th Century) brought in mass numbers of Eastern Anatolians, Transoxanians, Armenians, and Georgians inside Iran, and have we ever heard of any problem from these groups? They were Shia, Sunni, even Christians. They came, got Iranicised and vanished into the local population. Same will happen with the current immigration of Iraqi kurds, Turkmen, Arabs, Afghans, Tajiks, possible future settle of Azeri rep. or Alevis etc.

By multi-cultural immigration, I meant to designate the type which can be observed in western Europe, northern America or Australia, i.e. wild uncontrolled immigration from every possible corner of the world.

Just like you said, the reason people from Iran's periphery have historically integrated so well is because of their geographical and cultural proximity. Most of them originated from the Greater Iranian civilizational sphere. However what I'm referring to is mass immigration from lands unconnected to Iran.

Why? Because I don't think the groups you envisage generate enough migration towards Iran to make up for lasting demographic decline. Some of them are tiny in size (Alawis of Syria, Shia of Lebanon etc), others have a recessive demography themselves (Baku Republic) and others yet do not seem to have much incentive to leave their countries for Iran (Kurdish Iraqis, Alevis of Turkey, citizens of the Republic of Turkmenistan).

Also, your numbers are wrong about migrants. Rouhani's government itself gave the following numbers in 15-16:
-Afghan (Major Tajik then Hazara/Pashtun) numbers at around 2.5-3 million, this number may increase in the future with future Afghan financial instability
-Iraqis (Kurds, Turkmen, Shia Arabs) around 0.7-1 Million

In 2019, Araqchi on national television explicitly declared there are more than 3 million Afghans (legal and illegal ones included). Thousands more are said to have entered since the Taleban took power.

As for Iraqis, I'm basing myself on the official 2016 population census of Iran:

Source: https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/1/census/2016/Iran_Census_2016_Selected_Results.pdf

This suggests that in 2016, there were less than 35.000 Iraqi residents in Iran, down from more than 50.000 in 2011. And there have definitely not been 700.000 to a million new migrants from Iraq over the past five and a half years.

We literally have something around ~3.5-4 Million strong migrant body made of Kurds, Tajiks, Iraqi Arabs, and Turkmens.

We have between 3 to 4 million Afghans and that's almost it. Tajiks are all from Afghanistan, not the from the Republic of Tajikistan. Same goes for Turkmens, but these are very few (and none from the country named Turkmenistan). And the bulk of other Afghans in Iran are Hazara like you said.

If official figures are to be believed, Kurdish and Arab Iraqis are just a fraction of Afghans though.

Which of these groups are cultural aliens? none. Cultural alien migrants are North Africans in EU, or Indopaks in Middle east. Our situation is totally different. Religion has never been a hardcore identity among these ethno-nationalist sub-Irano-Turkic ethnicities so Shia Sunni BS does not even matter here.

I never qualified those groups as culturally alien, all I'm saying is that apart from the Afghans, they have not and are unlikely to migrate to Iran in really significant numbers.

Thus demographic recession bears the risk of being followed by migration from regions completely alien to Iranian civilization, as is happening in Turkey and in Guangdong province (Pearl River Delta megalopolis) of China right now as we speak (increasing influx from sub-Saharan Africa and other remote places).

This is precisely one of the reasons why those self-hating liberals you mentioned are doing everything in their power to discourage young Iranians from having more children: they have a fundamental issue with Iran staying Iranian.

the increasing birth rate among the Iranian native population and migrants are the reason Iran in recent times has beaten Turkey in Population. All we need is to make sure that no stupid small family propaganda is promoted again inside Iran.

The Supreme Leader himself has taken up the case, if someone has access to reliable data on this sort of topic it should be his eminence. Given how he has issued a warning just a few weeks ago, I would prefer to take it seriously rather than to dismiss it.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

خبرگزاری فارس - رشد اقتصادی ایران در سال گذشته 4.3 درصد شد

بر اساس یافته‌های مرکز آمار ایران،‌نرخ رشد اقتصادی ایران در سال گذشته به 4.3 درصد رسید.

www.farsnews.ir

Economic growth of last year 21/3/2021 to 20/3/2022(Iranian year) was 4.3% .

Green Agriculture 7%
Orange Oil and natural gas 14%
Light blue Mining 1%
Blue Industry 13%
Yellow Water,electricity and natural gas 8%
Red Infrastructure 4%
Grey Services 53%

Are different sections of Iran's economy.

Oil price during that year