Iran has the highest nominal GDP in the Middle East: post JCPOA potential

[OldTwilight]

so, what birthrate has to jcpoa ?

can't you even read topic title ?

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

This 7,569 Trillion Rial explains IMF and WorldBank difference perfectly.
With USD at 42,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $1.8 T . ( close to IMF data )
With USD at 300,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $252 Billion. (close to worldbank data)

With government data that put's share of oil and gas at 14% of Iran's economy and Oil price at ~$100 and assumption of 5 Mbpd production ( 2.5 Mbpd oil and same amount as natural gas).
It makes $185 B for a year which means ~$1.32 T as Iran's GDP for current year.

Previous year ( 21/3/2021-20/3/2022) and average oil price of ~$79 Iran had ~$1.04 T GDP.

 

[drmeson]

This 7,569 Trillion Rial explains IMF and WorldBank difference perfectly.
With USD at 42,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $1.8 T . ( close to IMF data )
With USD at 300,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $252 Billion. (close to worldbank data)

With government data that put's share of oil and gas at 14% of Iran's economy and Oil price at ~$100 and assumption of 5 Mbpd production ( 2.5 Mbpd oil and same amount as natural gas).
It makes $185 B for a year which means ~$1.32 T as Iran's GDP for current year.

Previous year ( 21/3/2021-20/3/2022) and average oil price of ~$79 Iran had ~$1.04 T GDP.

Rial @ 42450 per 1 USD

 

[KediKesenFare3]

This 7,569 Trillion Rial explains IMF and WorldBank difference perfectly.
With USD at 42,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $1.8 T . ( close to IMF data )
With USD at 300,000 Rial it makes Iran's GDP $252 Billion. (close to worldbank data)

With government data that put's share of oil and gas at 14% of Iran's economy and Oil price at ~$100 and assumption of 5 Mbpd production ( 2.5 Mbpd oil and same amount as natural gas).
It makes $185 B for a year which means ~$1.32 T as Iran's GDP for current year.

Previous year ( 21/3/2021-20/3/2022) and average oil price of ~$79 Iran had ~$1.04 T GDP.

The only reliable source here is the World Bank. The estimated GDP of approximately 250 to 300 B USD is accurate and it does reflect the reality on the ground.

Why are you hellbent on showing Iran as an economic giant when everyone with knowledge of the region will tell you in a minute that any estimation over 500 B USD is absolutely unbelievable?

No country with over 1 Trillion USD GDP and a population of 80 Million is gonna look like Iran. I'm not judging Iran btw. The country could look totally different in just 10 years once they reach an agreement with the West but right now, any person claiming these insane numbers is either plane dumb or is doing it for ideological reasons.

Sorry.

 

[drmeson]

The only reliable source here is the World Bank. The estimated GDP of approximately 250 to 300 B USD is accurate and it does reflect the reality on the ground.

Why are you hellbent on showing Iran as an economic giant when everyone with knowledge of the region will tell you in a minute that any estimation over 500 B USD is absolutely unbelievable?

No country with over 1 Trillion USD GDP and a population of 80 Million is gonna look like Iran. I'm not judging Iran btw. The country could look totally different in just 10 years once they reach an agreement with the West but right now, any person claiming these insane numbers is either plane dumb or is doing it for ideological reasons.

Sorry.

BS from you again.

If you just exclude USD from the equation the nominal GDP of Iran in Rial is 7569 Trillion. Rial at 4250/ USD translated to IMF figures of 1.74 Trillion. You Like it or not, it is what it is. You can call IMF and tell them that they are wrong, their statisticians are wrong, their global projection is wrong and a two-bit troll on the internet has found the reality but it won't change anything.

Sorry

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRN#countrydata

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Dude, keep on living in your dreamy wonderland. No one who is remotely objective is going to believe your fairytales.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

The only reliable source here is the World Bank. The estimated GDP of approximately 250 to 300 B USD is accurate and it does reflect the reality on the ground.

Why are you hellbent on showing Iran as an economic giant when everyone with knowledge of the region will tell you in a minute that any estimation over 500 B USD is absolutely unbelievable?

No country with over 1 Trillion USD GDP and a population of 80 Million is gonna look like Iran. I'm not judging Iran btw. The country could look totally different in just 10 years once they reach an agreement with the West but right now, any person claiming these insane numbers is either plane dumb or is doing it for ideological reasons.

Sorry.

Why sorry it's a confusing matter even for economists.
Main problem comes from real "value" of Rial vs USD or other currencies.

1.04$ T comes from government calculation.which is not believable for many even in Iran.

As much as 250$ B is not believable.Problem with 250-300$ B is that :
Iran is rank 3 producer of natural gas.
Iran is rank 6 or 7 producer of oil.

Real market value of only these two products will be close to 200$ B in this year ! ( 185$ B in my above numbers).

Iran produces food for 80% of ~90 million people in country.
Iran do have a healthcare system which covers 90% people for their basic needs.
12 years of free education until university for everyone.
Free university for ~5% people.

According to WorldBank these four countries are in range of Iran's economy.

What are their characteristics?

Population: 5-10 million.
Exports: 44-100$ B
Foreign reserves:7-66$ B

This is my problem with Worldbank view.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Now let's combine all these four countries together and create country alpha :
It will have ~60 million population.
Exports : 260$ B
Foreign reserves :120$ B
And total GDP of ~800$ B

Even country of Alpha doesn't have all potentials of Iran.

I love all these countries but it's about WorldBank's data.(love Greece a little less )

 

[drmeson]

Dude, keep on living in your dreamy wonderland. No one who is remotely objective is going to believe your fairytales.

IMF's numbers are not fairytales you stupid. I know it's hard to digest for you but you can't do anything about it or can ye?

Like I said, here is the link, contact IMF and tell them that they should change their numbers because you can't sleep at night because of them.

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRN#countrydata

 

[drmeson]

Why sorry it's a confusing matter even for economists.
Main problem comes from real "value" of Rial vs USD or other currencies.

1.04$ T comes from government calculation.which is not believable for many even in Iran.

As much as 250$ B is not believable.Problem with 250-300$ B is that :
Iran is rank 3 producer of natural gas.
Iran is rank 6 or 7 producer of oil.

Real market value of only these two products will be close to 200$ B in this year ! ( 185$ B in my above numbers).

Iran produces food for 80% of ~90 million people in country.
Iran do have a healthcare system which covers 90% people for their basic needs.
12 years of free education until university for everyone.
Free university for ~5% people.

According to WorldBank these four countries are in range of Iran's economy.

View attachment 856750

What are their characteristics?

Population: 5-10 million.
Exports: 44-100$ B
Foreign reserves:7-66$ B

This is my problem with Worldbank view.

Very good post.

When we first heard of the 1.04 Trillion figure, people raised the same question even if we just take the annual Hydrocarbon output of Iran then its value alone is ~200 Billion USD and that's just a part of GDP, what about the rest? world bank numbers are a joke at best.

IMF took the exact same figure of 7569 Trillion rial GDP at 4250 Rials for 1 USD (2021) translated to 1.04T USD.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

When we first heard of the 1.04 Trillion figure, people raised the same question even if we just take the annual Hydrocarbon output of Iran then its value alone is ~200 Billion USD and that's just a part of GDP, what about the rest? world bank numbers are a joke at best.
IMF took the exact same figure of 7569 Trillion rial GDP at 4250 Rials for 1 USD (2021) translated to 1.04T USD.

The best solution to solve this issue is to find a country with similar export volume and same population then compare it to Iran.
(numbers are in the side of worst/bad case scenario)

Population 85 million
Exports (2021-2022) 180-200$ billion ( at least 100 billion non-oil sector)
Foreign reserve $85 billion (and 100-150$ billion blocked assets ?)
External debt $8-20 billion
GDP ????

 

[drmeson]

The best solution to solve this issue is to find a country with similar export volume and same population then compare it to Iran.

Turkey ? Egypt ?

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Turkey ? Egypt ?

Yes.

 

[khansaheeb]

So we have the 2nd largest GDP in the Islamic world. Highest in middle east despite sanctions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If JCPOA is successful where would we go from here?

Pakistan needs to learn of the Iranians. Self reliance is the best option.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

I don't want to raid your parade here bro but these numbers are volatile hence Nominal is off the marker by default and nothing to write home about..

Besides what does Iran sell? outside of Oil and Gas? As Iran has no other exports that is note worthy? The question is who is buying that much of oil and gas?

Iranians have some of the most astute engineering and artistic brains based on the small sample I've interacted with. Whatever progress Iran makes is under two heavy handicaps viz. international and domestic sanctions.

Apart from o&g they probably export dry fruits and nuts I'd guess - found them in Dubai clearly marked as Iranian - don't know how big or small that is. The pistachios were super delicious.