Iran deal's effect on Afghan Indian Nexus.

[BHarwana]

Trump pulled out of Iran deal, Means any one doing business with Iran could come under sanctions.

Now India is using Chabahar port to send goods to Afghanistan. Afghans how ever ditched wheat and many other exports from Pakistan in favor of Indian goods which were expensive and India and Afghans were playing BBF with each other.

Thanks to Trump India now cannot use Irani port any more. So they need Pakistan once more for transit now what should we do in this new game.

Pakistan can refuse India right to transit as Afghanistan is not playing by WTO rules and giving us fair access to it's market so we can refuse to India goods transits and force India to use Irani port and get sanctioned by USA and if USA lifts sanctions on India then every one can trade with Iran and Trumps policy of Very Bad Iran Deal will go in trash can.

So Now USA has shot in it's own foot with Sanctioning Iran. As Pakistani denial to port access card is back in the play in Afghanistan.

 

[PurpleStone]

Trump pulled out of Iran deal, Means any one doing business with Iran could come under sanctions.

Now India is using Chabahar port to send goods to Afghanistan. Afghans how ever ditched wheat and many other exports from Pakistan in favor of Indian goods which were expensive and India and Afghans were playing BBF with each other.

Thanks to Trump India now cannot use Irani port any more. So they need Pakistan once more for transit now what should we do in this new game.

Pakistan can refuse India right to transit as Afghanistan is not playing by WTO rules and giving us fair access to it's market so we can refuse to India goods transits and force India to use Irani port and get sanctioned by USA and if USA lifts sanctions on India then every one can trade with Iran and Trumps policy of Very Bad Iran Deal will go in trash can.

So Now USA has shot in it's own foot with Sanctioning Iran. As Pakistani denial to port access card is back in the play in Afghanistan.

India is pulling out of Chabahar and INSTC projects. Afghanistan would have to trade through Pakistan and Chabahar would become part of Chinese BRI project.

 

[BHarwana]

India is pulling out of Chabahar and INSTC projects. Afghanistan would have to trade through Pakistan and Chabahar would become part of Chinese BRI project.

With Pakistan back in equation what will be the future of India Afghan trade now?

 

[PurpleStone]

With Pakistan back in equation what will be the future of India Afghan trade now?

Indo-Afghan trade is dead unless India makes a deal with China to trade with Afghanistan through China.

 

[BHarwana]

India makes a deal with China

China is using CPEC for afghan trade so India will join CPEC?

 

[PurpleStone]

China is using CPEC for afghan trade so India will join CPEC?

Not necessarily CPEC but India has requested China to allow India to join BRI when Modi met Xi in Wuhan couple of weeks ago and Modi proposed to Xi that India and China could work jointly on projects in Afghanistan.

 

[BHarwana]

Not necessarily CPEC but India has requested China to allow India to join BRI when Modi met Xi in Wuhan couple of weeks ago and Modi proposed to Xi that India and China could work jointly on projects in Afghanistan.

My point is there is no infrastructure in Wakhan Corridor and China uses Pakistan to access Afghanistan so will India use Pakistan and if so India not being in CPEC will fall to normal trade rules and Pakistan can deny access.

With no access to port Pakistan is now in a even better position to tame Afghanistan as Russia will not allow EU trade and Iran is off limits for Afghanistan because of sanctions on Iran. Will Afghanistan defy USA or bow to Pakistan because Chabahar was the very reason Afghans govt was trying to bite Pakistan as they thought they were free bingo with port being in Indian hands

 

[PurpleStone]

My point is there is no infrastructure in Wakhan Corridor and China uses Pakistan to access Afghanistan so will India use Pakistan and if so India not being in CPEC will fall to normal trade rules and Pakistan can deny access.

India would join CPEC if Pakistan agrees but the alternative would be to trade through the central corridor passing through Xinjiang and Tibet

With no access to port Pakistan is now in a even better position to tame Afghanistan as Russia will not allow EU trade and Iran is off limits for Afghanistan because of sanctions on Iran. Will Afghanistan defy USA or bow to Pakistan because Chabahar was the very reason Afghans govt was trying to bite Pakistan as they thought they were free bingo with port being in Indian hands

No doubt Pakistan is in the driving seat at this time thanks to the US sanctions on Iran. Afghanistan and India are now at the mercy of Pakistan and China.

 

[BHarwana]

India would join CPEC if Pakistan agrees but the alternative would be to trade through the central corridor passing through Xinjiang and Tibet

Why would Pakistan not agree to India joining if India agrees providing Pakistan access to it's markets and become a law abiding country and observes human rights in Kashmir. Because according to WTO you can sanction trade with any country violating human rights.

Secondly Indian dream of reaching central asia again rest in Chinese hand? This Iran deal is turning out to be more harmful for India than I thought it was.

No doubt Pakistan is in the driving seat at this time thanks to the US sanctions on Iran. Afghanistan and India are now at the mercy of Pakistan and China.

Trump didn't calculated the whole out come sanctioning Iran will gave more power to China in the region and make it driving force. I agree this whole sanction on Iran thing is hurting India and US allies. But what can Trump do USA was being left out of the whole thing. US companies were gaining nothing from Iran.

 

[PurpleStone]

Why would Pakistan not agree to India joining if India agrees providing Pakistan access to it's markets and become a law abiding country and observes human rights in Kashmir. Because according to WTO you can sanction trade with any country violating human rights.

Secondly Indian dream of reaching central asia again rest in Chinese hand? This Iran deal is turning out to be more harmful for India than I thought it was.

China has already advised India to settle issues with Pakistan. You may have noticed that Modi has mellowed down recently after the Wuhan meet with Xi and has started to announced peace overtures. I expect Modi to announce full cease fire along LOC shortly.

 

[BHarwana]

China has already advised India to settle issues with Pakistan. You may have noticed that Modi has mellowed down recently after the Wuhan meet with Xi and has started to announced peace overtures. I expect Modi to announce full cease fire along LOC shortly.

Modi is making peace because PML-N is losing ground in Punjab. It has nothing to do with Iran deal. Nawaz always gave India concession and Modi is soon going to get Govt on par to him along the border. But lets leave out India and bring Afghanistan in picture. How will Afghans handle this move because USA wants stronger Afghan govt and with Pakistan at odds with them they cannot sustain on this long with out open trade route.

 

[PurpleStone]

Trump didn't calculated the whole out come sanctioning Iran will gave more power to China in the region and make it driving force. I agree this whole sanction on Iran thing is hurting India and US allies. But what can Trump do USA was being left out of the whole thing. US companies were gaining nothing from Iran.

US asking South Korea to pay for THAAD has resulted in South & North Koreas burying the hatchet, with China playing the mediator. The same is happening now. US Sanctions on Iran is forcing India to reach out to China for help. Can China succeed here too with India-Pakistan following the SK-NK example?

 

[BHarwana]

US asking South Korea to pay for THAAD has resulted in South & North Koreas burying the hatchet, with China playing the mediator. The same is happening now. US Sanctions on Iran is forcing India to reach out to China for help. Can China succeed here too with India-Pakistan following the SK-NK example?

The SK-NK model cannot be applied to Pakistan and India we are not at war because of democracy and communism issues but there is a land dispute between us which we claim as our own. NK and SK don't have land dispute but ideology. In Pakistan Indian issue there is dispute over material not theory. India cannot let go Kashmir and neither can Pakistan. For example in case peace is proposed will India let go Kashmir? Because I know Pakistan will not let go Kashmir. So what ever China will bring to the table will be a cease fire and time trap theory of peace for trade.

 

[PurpleStone]

Modi is making peace because PML-N is losing ground in Punjab. It has nothing to do with Iran deal. Nawaz always gave India concession and Modi is soon going to get Govt on par to him along the border. But lets leave out India and bring Afghanistan in picture. How will Afghans handle this move because USA wants stronger Afghan govt and with Pakistan at odds with them they cannot sustain on this long with out open trade route.

PML(N) is close to SA, Military and PTI are close to the US while PPP is close to China. India supporting NS is a bit of an exaggeration. Anyway let's not digress.

US wants Afghanistan to trade through Pakistan and not through Iran/Chabahar.

China wants Afghanistan to trade through Pakistan using Gwadar.

India is requesting US to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through Iran/Chabahar.

India is requesting China to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through China.

India is requesting Pakistan to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Will either US or China or Pakistan agree to Indian requests or not is to be seen.

India and Afghanistan have very limited options at this point of time.

The SK-NK model cannot be applied to Pakistan and India we are not at war because of democracy and communism issues but there is a land dispute between us which we claim as our own. NK and SK don't have land dispute but ideology. In Pakistan Indian issue there is dispute over material not theory. India cannot let go Kashmir and neither can Pakistan. For example in case peace is proposed will India let go Kashmir? Because I know Pakistan will not let go Kashmir. So what ever China will bring to the table will be a cease fire and time trap theory of peace for trade.

True. I think China may push India and Pakistan to hold off on the hostilities for few years by kicking the Kashmir issue can down the road.

 

[BHarwana]

India is requesting China to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through China.

China uses Pakistan there are no roads in Wakhan Corridor

India is requesting Pakistan to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Pakistan never stopped the Indian trade India it's self used the Iran port to throw Pakistan out of equation and make Afghanistan retaliate against Pakistan by taking Afghans out of Pakistani clutches.

India is requesting US to allow it to trade with Afghanistan through Iran/Chabahar.

If USA is going to allow India it will have to allow EU as well and whole concept of Iran deal will come back and Trump will bite his own policy so I think that is not going to happen.