Iran deal's effect on Afghan Indian Nexus.

[PurpleStone]

China uses Pakistan there are no roads in Wakhan Corridor

Not through Wakhan but through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China and then to India.

Pakistan never stopped the Indian trade India it's self used the Iran port to throw Pakistan out of equation and make Afghanistan retaliate against Pakistan by taking Afghans out of Pakistani clutches.

Yes. This whole business of isolating Pakistan has totally backfired on India.

If USA is going to allow India it will have to allow EU as well and whole concept of Iran deal will come back and Trump will bite his own policy so I think that is not going to happen.

Agree. I don't expect US to allow. I was just stating that India was requesting an exception which will be denied.

 

[BHarwana]

Not through Wakhan but through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China and then to India.

Taliban are taking the check posts of Northern provinces for this very reason.

 

[my2cents]

Chabahar: India’s moves over the last few years to develop berths at the Shahid Beheshti port in Chabahar was a key part of its plans to circumvent Pakistan’s blocks on trade with Afghanistan, and the new U.S. sanctions could slow or even bring those plans to a halt depending on how strictly they are implemented. India has already committed about $85 million to Chabahar development with plans for a total of $500 million on the port, while a railway line to Afghanistan could cost as much as $1.6 billion. Last year, the U.S. took a lenient line on India’s wheat consignment of 1.1 million tonnes sent via Chabahar, with the former U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, saying the U.S. wanted to target the regime, not the Iranian people. His replacement, Mike Pompeo, and the new U.S. National Security Adviser, John Bolton, have a much tougher line on Iran and any further restrictions they place will make India’s Chabahar plans more expensive and even unviable.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...aw-from-iran-nuclear-deal/article23820123.ece

 

[BHarwana]

Agree. I don't expect US to allow. I was just stating that India was requesting an exception which will be denied.

US entire world dominance run is based of three pillar theory. Democracy Banking and Petro Dollar. If you are a democratic country you need trade to make progress and score vote and thus firm your rule. Now trade needs banking and that need Petro Dollar. That is why USA fight wars to establish democracy and if any one tries to shatter any of pillars of USA triangle they will go to war so wish you good luck but Trump is looking firm on Iran

 

[PurpleStone]

Taliban are taking the check posts of Northern provinces for this very reason.

I know. That is the reason why India is pushing for joint projects with China in Afghanistan to mitigate the risk. This is the reason why Modi is meeting Putin on 21st May. India is hoping that Russia and China could negotiate a deal with Pakistan and Taliban for transiting the goods.

Chabahar: India’s moves over the last few years to develop berths at the Shahid Beheshti port in Chabahar was a key part of its plans to circumvent Pakistan’s blocks on trade with Afghanistan, and the new U.S. sanctions could slow or even bring those plans to a halt depending on how strictly they are implemented. India has already committed about $85 million to Chabahar development with plans for a total of $500 million on the port, while a railway line to Afghanistan could cost as much as $1.6 billion. Last year, the U.S. took a lenient line on India’s wheat consignment of 1.1 million tonnes sent via Chabahar, with the former U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, saying the U.S. wanted to target the regime, not the Iranian people. His replacement, Mike Pompeo, and the new U.S. National Security Adviser, John Bolton, have a much tougher line on Iran and any further restrictions they place will make India’s Chabahar plans more expensive and even unviable.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...aw-from-iran-nuclear-deal/article23820123.ece

It is not that simple. Even if India wants to move ahead with building Chabahar using a barter deal with Iran, India would not be able to import heavy cranes and other equipment to be installed at the port from EU countries. The only other country that has the technology and capability is China. This is the reason why Modi is requesting China's help. Without China's help Chabahar is a non starter now.

 

[BHarwana]

I know. That is the reason why India is pushing for joint projects with China in Afghanistan to mitigate the risk. This is the reason why Modi is meeting Putin on 21st May. India is hoping that Russia and China could negotiate a deal with Pakistan and Taliban for transiting the goods.

India has no eye for Afghanistan or trade with Afghanistan. India is looking to central asia. If Iran is sanctioned India don't needs Afghanistan. India needs Afghanistan with Iran to reach central asia. With sanctions on Iran India needs China and Russia to reach central asia with easy access. On the whole India needs Pakistan for trade access if it wants the most easy way to central asia.

India was playing Afghan boy friend game just to trap Pakistan. The trader eyes of India are set on central asia.

lol India is stuck either USA or China and Russia in trading it is called bull trap. If India want to fight Pakistan the road is total acceptance of US stance in the region and USA directed foreign policy and the other option is China and Pakistan. lol Trump really made it hell with his decision. Same way EU is stuck. EU has to chose between Security and trade. Let go of Irani oil to china for US security against Russia or def them selves and keep hold on Irani oil. Trump is a gambler making all count profit in balance.

 

[my2cents]

India has no eye for Afghanistan or trade with Afghanistan. India is looking to central asia. If Iran is sanctioned India don't needs Afghanistan. India needs Afghanistan with Iran to reach central asia. With sanctions on Iran India needs China and Russia to reach central asia with easy access. On the whole India needs Pakistan for trade access if it wants the most easy way to central asia.

India was playing Afghan boy friend game just to trap Pakistan. The trader eyes of India are set on central asia.

lol India is stuck either USA or China and Russia in trading it is called bull trap. If India want to fight Pakistan the road is total acceptance of US stance in the region and USA directed foreign policy and the other option is China and Pakistan. lol Trump really made it hell with his decision. Same way EU is stuck. EU has to chose between Security and trade. Let go of Irani oil to china for US security against Russia or def them selves and keep hold on Irani oil. Trump is a gambler making all count profit in balance.

Presently India accounts for 1% of all exports from Central Asian countries. Our trade and footprint is very low. With Pakistan in the middle, Iran being sanctioned, it presents an unlikely scenario we will make any inroads to increase our trade with them. Central asian countries are landlocked and if their neighbours present blockades to their trade then they are most affected not us. We like to change that and increase our footprint but with unstable neighbours like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan it will always presents hurdles for others.

 

[BHarwana]

Central asian countries are landlocked and if their neighbours present blockades to their trade then they are most affected not us. We like to change that and increase our footprint but with unstable neighbours like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan it will always presents hurdles for others.

Central asian countries are getting all products they need. It is Indian exports to them that are not going through not theirs. The very concept of hurdles was created by India. Have you forgotten Modi jee isolate Pakistan policy?

 

[my2cents]

Central asian countries are getting all products they need. It is Indian exports to them that are not going through not theirs. The very concept of hurdles was created by India. Have you forgotten Modi jee isolate Pakistan policy?

All you have to do is remove the hurdles and make peace with India, you will see entire South Asia will prosper.

 

[BHarwana]

All you have to do is remove the hurdles and make peace with India, you will see entire South Asia will prosper.

All you have to do is give Kashmir freedom and every thing will be fine and India might become a super power the long awaited dream will be reality. It is just Kashmir a small valley in Himalayas that is holding the entire India back. Blame game can go on for ever so the ball is in your court because you are who is on the decision making point. The more late India takes decision the more established China and Pakistan will get in Asia unless USA open door and Afghanistan becomes in total peace with a magic. So time has favored Pakistan for now why do think we will not exploit it diplomatically? Still the opportunity awaits India now how Modi plays it is up to BJP. Pakistan is not going to stop trade with Iran, US sanctions don't effect us the companies involved in Pakistani trade are mostly domestic who have to reach to USA and sanctions are secondary not UN based we have room to maneuver in Iran. Plus Pakistan established FTA and Banking exchange when time was right. Most probably the Irani rice tender for India will be filled by Pakistan as India seems reluctant to move against USA. If Total pulls out of Irani oil China will come and India will become more dependent on USA.

To my honest assessment If India is not going to defy USA by November this year India will start seen effect to it's economy as Indian growth requires access to more markets. Rising oil prices and blocked access to markets India will suffer. This all is just a theory if situation continues as it is and India tries to wait the out come.

 

[my2cents]

All you have to do is give Kashmir freedom and every thing will be fine and India might become a super power the long awaited dream will be reality. It is just Kashmir a small valley in Himalayas that is holding the entire India back. Blame game can go on for ever so the ball is in your court because you are who is on the decision making point. The more late India takes decision the more established China and Pakistan will get in Asia unless USA open door and Afghanistan becomes in total peace with a magic. So time has favored Pakistan for now why do think we will not exploit it diplomatically? Still the opportunity awaits India now how Modi plays it is up to BJP. Pakistan is not going to stop trade with Iran, US sanctions don't effect us the companies involved in Pakistani trade are mostly domestic who have to reach to USA and sanctions are secondary not UN based we have room to maneuver in Iran. Plus Pakistan established FTA and Banking exchange when time was right. Most probably the Irani rice tender for India will be filled by Pakistan as India seems reluctant to move against USA. If Total pulls out of Irani oil China will come and India will become more dependent on USA.

To my honest assessment If India is not going to defy USA by November this year India will start seen effect to it's economy as Indian growth requires access to more markets. Rising oil prices and blocked access to markets India will suffer. This all is just a theory if situation continues as it is and India tries to wait the out come.

Now don't say India is creating the hurdles. It is your obsession with Kashmir which is making this region unstable.

 

[kasper95]

All you have to do is give Kashmir freedom and every thing will be fine and India might become a super power the long awaited dream will be reality. It is just Kashmir a small valley in Himalayas that is holding the entire India back. Blame game can go on for ever so the ball is in your court because you are who is on the decision making point. The more late India takes decision the more established China and Pakistan will get in Asia unless USA open door and Afghanistan becomes in total peace with a magic. So time has favored Pakistan for now why do think we will not exploit it diplomatically? Still the opportunity awaits India now how Modi plays it is up to BJP. Pakistan is not going to stop trade with Iran, US sanctions don't effect us the companies involved in Pakistani trade are mostly domestic who have to reach to USA and sanctions are secondary not UN based we have room to maneuver in Iran. Plus Pakistan established FTA and Banking exchange when time was right. Most probably the Irani rice tender for India will be filled by Pakistan as India seems reluctant to move against USA. If Total pulls out of Irani oil China will come and India will become more dependent on USA.

To my honest assessment If India is not going to defy USA by November this year India will start seen effect to it's economy as Indian growth requires access to more markets. Rising oil prices and blocked access to markets India will suffer. This all is just a theory if situation continues as it is and India tries to wait the out come.

You seem to forget,Iran sanctions was only lifted recently and India was trading and doing business with Iran when it was under US sanctions,we started the idea of usuing the Iran route to reach Afghanistan and other countries you are talking about when Iran was under US sanctions,so there should not be any doubt what India wants and what it will do.

As for small valley called Kashmir ,you can see what India has lost and what Pakistan has lost.if you think Pakistan can take it rest assured India won't even feel it economically

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

couple of weeks ago Afghanistan signed transit deal with Pakistan to use our ports. They know chabahar romance is over.

 

[!eon]

This Afghan transit route is big enemy of Pakistan, bringing a huge damage to Pakistan's economy. Pakistan should get rid of it.

Let the Afganistanis go for Iran-India Chabahar. It's in favor of Pakistan's economy.

 

[Vapnope]

You seem to forget,Iran sanctions was only lifted recently and India was trading and doing business with Iran when it was under US sanctions,we started the idea of usuing the Iran route to reach Afghanistan and other countries you are talking about when Iran was under US sanctions,so there should not be any doubt what India wants and what it will do.

Correct. India played really well last time.
There are few things to keep in mind before we expect what would happen next,
1 - Obama administration wasn't filled with hawks and Govt to Govt tilt towards India was not what it is now
2 - Trump administration is filled with hawks however India and US has opened a new chapter of relations

It would be interesting to see how India would handle it and how US would react. It would be a great learning opportunity for many in the region.