Inside the OBL Raid

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It was a backup plan only, with destruction of certain assets, and only to be used as a last resort. The nuclear threshold aspect and all the ramifications were also included in the plan. There is no media coverage of all these backup plans.

BTW, the SEALS would not have surrendered.

The 'backup plan' was more than likely immediate and direct contact with the top military and civilian leadership to clarify what was happening.

It would be easier to 'negotiate' a way out of a botched raid if 'escalation' along the lines of 'take out the PAF' was not occurring. And it would be much easier to convince the military leadership that there wasn't a full scale invasion or attack on Pakistan's military/deterrent capabilities if the incursion remained limited to a few choppers and Pakistani forces were not attacked.

Once the US started shooting down PAF jets and bombing air-bases, I certainly would be in no mood to listen to any assurances that this was 'not the start of a war/invasion'.

Wouldn't necessarily require the SEAL's to surrender, but would require them to 'stand down' till Pakistan allowed them 'safe passage' out of Pakistan.

Much simpler and 'much less messier' plan than 'take out the PAF'.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I mean to highlight the shameless people sitting in the AHQ and GHQ. Who enjoy Golf, BMW, Land Cruisers at the expense of the tax payers.....while fail to do a job they are trusted with : DEFENDING THE NATION FROM INTRUDERS......whether Indian or Western.

You are assuming that the PAF/PA actually detected the raiding choppers in time to do anything.

If the SEALS were on their way out when the PA/PAF/GoP figured out what was happening, there may have been little time to detect and force down the raiding party.

 

[SQ8]

Sir remember,

A few years ago Amercian P3 Orion was landed in China. Plane was torn apart and crew members held. Americans wrote two letters of apology to the Chinese people. One for intruding their airspace and the other for the pilot who was lost while forcing the intruding P3 to land.

What i mean to say is that China was old then. USA could have given them a bloody nose. But there was at least a response by the Chinese to the intruding side. They weren't sleeping in their villas. The intercepting Aircraft were, i suppose J-8? (correct me if i am wrong) USA could have used it's carrier battle group and F-18s and B-2 and bla bla then. But they didn't.


I mean to highlight the shameless people sitting in the AHQ and GHQ. Who enjoy Golf, BMW, Land Cruisers at the expense of the tax payers.....while fail to do a job they are trusted with : DEFENDING THE NATION FROM INTRUDERS......whether Indian or Western.

To extend your last sentence.. the Chinese were not US puppets then.. nor are they now.
There are good people in the AHQ, GHQ.. and NHQ.. however they are bound by their oath and will not interfere unless the GoP orders them to.

 

[Jango]

You are assuming that the PAF/PA actually detected the raiding choppers in time to do anything.

If the SEALS were on their way out when the PA/PAF/GoP figured out what was happening, there may have been little time to detect and force down the raiding party.

not meaning to intrude into a seniors' debate, but we did know the yanks were here , that was on return trip.
The sepoy at the PMA gate would have taken note of helos and explosions a short distance away.

It was a case of reprecussions all along the episode. Should we leave it here or retaliate and risk a massive strike in return.

 

[VCheng]

The 'backup plan' was more than likely immediate and direct contact with the top military and civilian leadership to clarify what was happening.

It would be easier to 'negotiate' a way out of a botched raid if 'escalation' along the lines of 'take out the PAF' was not occurring. And it would be much easier to convince the military leadership that there wasn't a full scale invasion or attack on Pakistan's military/deterrent capabilities if the incursion remained limited to a few choppers and Pakistani forces were not attacked.

Once the US started shooting down PAF jets and bombing air-bases, I certainly would be in no mood to listen to any assurances that this was 'not the start of a war/invasion'.

Wouldn't necessarily require the SEAL's to surrender, but would require them to 'stand down' till Pakistan allowed them 'safe passage' out of Pakistan.

Much simpler and 'much less messier' plan than 'take out the PAF'.

Those plans were also drawn up, so I can accept your point of view very comfortably.

Suffice to say, the whole chess board was laid out and considered out several moves, including what you and I have said previously.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It was a case of reprecussions all along the episode. Should we leave it here or retaliate and risk a massive strike in return.

Absolutely.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Those plans were also drawn up, so I can accept your point of view very comfortably.

Suffice to say, the whole chess board was laid out and considered out several moves, including what you and I have said previously.

Please also read through this thread with an article discussing potential US plans to 'take out Pakistan's nukes', and how much uncertainty there is over the success and repercussions of such an operation.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-missiles/123117-us-planning-snatch-pakistans-nukes.html

It is one thing to claim that 'we have a back up plan and we have war-gamed XYZ scenario', it is quite another whether any of that planning is realistic.

 

[Donatello]

You are assuming that the PAF/PA actually detected the raiding choppers in time to do anything.

If the SEALS were on their way out when the PA/PAF/GoP figured out what was happening, there may have been little time to detect and force down the raiding party.

Let me make one thing clear. Whether PN or PA knew about it, i don't know. But PAF did. because US moved unusually sophisticated equipment to Afghanistan 2 days prior to the raid. PAF chief said this as they used the same air-corridor over Balochistan that Pakistan gave the USA to transport their air assets to Afghanistan from South. A former high ranking official i happened to meet and play golf with, told that PAF knew something was up and they even alerted the bases on the west. They just didn't know that choppers like Black hawk would come in but they definitely knew USA was upto something and something in Pakistan. I mean you don't need F-18 growlers and E3s for war in Afghanistan, do you?

 

[VCheng]

Please also read through this thread with an article discussing potential US plans to 'take out Pakistan's nukes', and how much uncertainty there is over the success and repercussions of such an operation.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-missiles/123117-us-planning-snatch-pakistans-nukes.html

It is one thing to claim that 'we have a back up plan and we have war-gamed XYZ scenario', it is quite another whether any of that planning is realistic.

I will go through that thread later, but please note that there is no need to "snatch" anything from Pakistan. The nukes are secure for now, and both sides know it. The media hype, if any, is BS.

 

[Donatello]

True....there won't be a massive strike....not unless USA is out of Afghanistan and it can throw Pakistan in the toilet....

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Let me make one thing clear. Whether PN or PA knew about it, i don't know. But PAF did. because US moved unusually sophisticated equipment to Afghanistan 2 days prior to the raid. PAF chief said this as they used the same air-corridor over Balochistan that Pakistan gave the USA to transport their air assets to Afghanistan from South. A former high ranking official i happened to meet and play golf with, told that PAF knew something was up and they even alerted the bases on the west. They just didn't know that choppers like Black hawk would come in but they definitely knew USA was upto something and something in Pakistan. I mean you don't need F-18 growlers and E3s for war in Afghanistan, do you?

So an intelligence failure in terms of 'connecting the dots' on the part of the Pakistani Military and intelligence?

At least we now know what the US is capable of doing and plan accordingly - this time the target (OBL) was essentially irrelevant to Pakistan. The raid itself and the capabilities of the US now should allow certain 'possibilities' to be considered as viable, when analyzing future intelligence and 'connecting the dots'.

After the Abbottabad raid, there is no reason to not treat US actions as those of a 'hostile state', at least in terms of plans to 'defend Pakistan'.

 

[VCheng]

So an intelligence failure in terms of 'connecting the dots' on the part of the Pakistani Military and intelligence?

At least we now know what the US is capable of doing and plan accordingly - this time the target (OBL) was essentially irrelevant to Pakistan. The raid itself and the capabilities of the US now should allow certain 'possibilities' to be considered as viable, when analyzing future intelligence and 'connecting the dots'.

After the Abbottabad raid, there is no reason to not treat US actions as those of a 'hostile state', at least in terms of plans to 'defend Pakistan'.

Such planning would be prudent from a military point of view.

 

[gubbi]

The reported new details also validate Pakistan's intelligence support that led to OBL being tracked down, though the Pakistan bashers will no doubt find some convoluted and nonsensical argument to somehow still paint the ISI and PA as being 'complicit' in sheltering OBL.

I re-read the whole report. Nowhere does it even mention nor hint about Pakistan's intelligence "support" in tracking OBL. Or did I miss that part somewhere? From the beginning it seemed to be a solely US op. Also this:
Obama called his national-security advisers into the White House Situation Room and reviewed a spreadsheet listing possible courses of action against the Abbottabad compound. Most were variations of either a JSOC raid or an airstrike. Some versions included coöperating with the Pakistani military; some did not. Obama decided against informing or working with Pakistan. “There was a real lack of confidence that the Pakistanis could keep this secret for more than a nanosecond,” a senior adviser to the President told me.

So pray, what support are you talking about?

 

[Xeric]

Xeric, I personally don't have any issue with the motto.

But at the same time, as a society and nation there is nothing wrong with discussing changes to 'our society, nation and institutions'.

In the scheme of things the 'motto' is a trivial thing to obsess about - there are plenty of more serious issues in the constitution and in Pakistan's laws that need to be addressed first.

May be i was not able to convey my point correctly.

What i meant to say was, these psedo liberals can discuss the motto to the end of their lives, but the change 'aint happening', why? Because there's isnt anything wrong with the motto. Had there been something wrong, well, we have change a hell lota things since this WoT landed on our heads, but this motto was not part of it, and i am sure would not be in future also. On the other hand, the mongers (both the writers of articles and the members on PDF) can have the field day of their lives here on this forum, waste the bandwidth and kill themselves with joy, who cares?

Discuss, inspect, audit, check whatever they may, that's their right, but it wouldnt mean that things would always turn to their favor.

EDIT: i smell this Cheng dude replied to a post of mine, i think i have told him that he's no more on my watch. Still, dont think i am oblivious of the happenings.

 

[VCheng]

.............. Because there's isnt anything wrong with the motto...............

Well, that is YOUR opinion, others may differ.

.....................................On the other hand, the mongers (both the writers of articles and the members on PDF) can have the field day of their lives here on this forum, waste the bandwidth and kill themselves with joy, who cares?.....................

And yet your responses continue as if you do care!

It is always good to be able to talk and discuss. That is how consensuses develop, if you care for that sort thing.

Discuss, inspect, audit, check whatever they may, that's their right, but it wouldnt mean that things would always turn to their favor.

Not always, but in some cases, things might turn out in their favor.

EDIT: i smell this Cheng dude replied to a post of mine, i think i have told him that he's no more on my watch. So dont think i am oblivious of the happenings.

.... and neither are others.

PS: Try some deodorant.