Indonesia orders 42 Rafale jets from France

[Whizzack]

This deal shows what I have stated many times since about beginning of 2021 is true. We dont know the actual deal for 6 Rafale planes, some say 600 million USD while other said 1.1 billion USD (Alman Helvast/ former Jane Defense journalist), but the figure cannot exceed that 1.1 billion USD.

Prabowo has inserted proposal about Rafale and Freem acquisition to both Bapenas and SMI, but so far those people havent given the green light yet. In April the situation will be clearer.

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This my explanation to Indonesian member in Defense Hub

Have you seen the Air Force plan meeting video in early 2021 ? I have posted the video some months ago here.

The truth is Air Force only has 8 billion USD foreign loan approval, and MRCA is only for 1.6 billion USD foreign loan (approved by Bapenas), later SMI slash it into 1.1 billion USD. That is for entire 2020-2024 period.

Total foreign loan for defense acquisition program is around 18 billion USD for 2020-2024 period which include all branches-approved by Bappenas but still has the chance to be slashed by Finance Minister. The program that has already got approval by SMI is just 5.8 billion USD foreign loan funded so far and according to AH the RMP given by SMI in 2022 budget is only able to cover some portion of that 5.8 billion USD foreign loan approval programs.

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SU 35 budget being used for this order is just statement made by France media. Actually I dont know whether Finance Minister has allocated budget for Su 35 acquisition ? If there is program that is not absorbed within one fiscal year, it can be used for the next year by Defense Minister that will be included in next year defense budget. There is definition like SAL ( sisa anggaran lebih) and there is flexibility in using it.

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Bappenas; Planning Minister
SMI: Sri Mulyani Indrawati ( Indonesia Finance Minister )

Hi Indos, just curious.. but why do you seem so salty about the Rafale purchase...? always seems to try to belittle or put a negative spin to the news (like "oh the planning minister or finance minister will not agree to the purchase, or oh they approve it but only in limited numbers, or oh they are going to slash the budget eventually, or oh it's just a Prabowo personal preference", etc), I mean I know you are in favor of the F-16 Vipers, but do you reaaally love them so badly as to unable to accept any other fighter model other than Vipers..? I mean what's so bad about the Rafale anyway..? Yeah it's expensive, but the Vipers aren't exactly cheap either... The Jordanians are planning on buying a sq of Vipers (16 units) and yet it will cost them about USD 4,2+ billion... I personally believe we will get the Rafale and we will get the KF-21 (not so sure about the F-15EX, though I'll be happy if we do get those as well)...

Here is one other thing that you seem to have conveniently forgotten or failed to mention... After the US embargo in the 90's and early 2000's... We have decided to never again depend on a single source (read: US) for all our Fighter needs... Preferably we would want to continue our relationship with Russia and Sukhoi (as we already have the personnel and infrastructure in place), however it becomes untenable due to CAATSA... so France becomes a natural substitute for Russia as their arms industries and technology are actually pretty independent of the US... KF-21 though Korean, is still heavily dependent on US tech and supply chain and is thus practically a US product... not enough to be considered in our diversification planning, but we'll stick with it for the good industrial and technological cooperation we have with SK..

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Now: if there were no Rafaels...

 

[Indos]

Hi Indos, just curious.. but why do you seem so salty about the Rafale purchase...? always seems to try to belittle or put a negative spin to the news (like "oh the planning minister or finance minister will not agree to the purchase, or oh they approve it but only in limited numbers, or oh they are going to slash the budget eventually, or oh it's just a Prabowo personal preference", etc), I mean I know you are in favor of the F-16 Vipers, but do you reaaally love them so badly as to unable to accept any other fighter model other than Vipers..? I mean what's so bad about the Rafale anyway..? Yeah it's expensive, but the Vipers aren't exactly cheap either... The Jordanians are planning on buying a sq of Vipers (16 units) and yet it will cost them about USD 4,2+ billion... I personally believe we will get the Rafale and we will get the KF-21 (not so sure about the F-15EX, though I'll be happy if we do get those as well)...

Here is one other thing that you seem to have conveniently forgotten or failed to mention... After the US embargo in the 90's and early 2000's... We have decided to never again depend on a single source (read: US) for all our Fighter needs... Preferably we would want to continue our relationship with Russia and Sukhoi (as we already have the personnel and infrastructure in place), however it becomes untenable due to CAATSA... so France becomes a natural substitute for Russia as their arms industries and technology are actually pretty independent of the US... KF-21 though Korean, is still heavily dependent on US tech and supply chain and is thus practically a US product... not enough to be considered in our diversification planning, but we'll stick with it for the good industrial and technological cooperation we have with SK..

Well I am not in support of big acquisition of fighter planes since I believe it is not supportive for our local defense industry, let alone the running KF 21/IFX program can be jeopardized because of that. I am also an economic guy, I have concern over our economy and dont want to spend unnecessary spending.

I am fine with the normal order just to fill our F 5 squadron with 6-16 possible acquisition. For my analysist that is actually based on fact. So far the order of just 6 planes are also in accordance with my previous analysis which is derived from Bappenas plan and later the Finance Ministry decision to cut those 1.6 billion USD foreign loan back program into just 1.1 billion USD. That program is for the period of 2020-2024, that was shown during Air Force meeting in early 2021.

 

[Indos]

Hi Indos, just curious.. but why do you seem so salty about the Rafale purchase...? always seems to try to belittle or put a negative spin to the news (like "oh the planning minister or finance minister will not agree to the purchase, or oh they approve it but only in limited numbers, or oh they are going to slash the budget eventually, or oh it's just a Prabowo personal preference", etc), I mean I know you are in favor of the F-16 Vipers, but do you reaaally love them so badly as to unable to accept any other fighter model other than Vipers..? I mean what's so bad about the Rafale anyway..? Yeah it's expensive, but the Vipers aren't exactly cheap either... The Jordanians are planning on buying a sq of Vipers (16 units) and yet it will cost them about USD 4,2+ billion... I personally believe we will get the Rafale and we will get the KF-21 (not so sure about the F-15EX, though I'll be happy if we do get those as well)...

Here is one other thing that you seem to have conveniently forgotten or failed to mention... After the US embargo in the 90's and early 2000's... We have decided to never again depend on a single source (read: US) for all our Fighter needs... Preferably we would want to continue our relationship with Russia and Sukhoi (as we already have the personnel and infrastructure in place), however it becomes untenable due to CAATSA... so France becomes a natural substitute for Russia as their arms industries and technology are actually pretty independent of the US... KF-21 though Korean, is still heavily dependent on US tech and supply chain and is thus practically a US product... not enough to be considered in our diversification planning, but we'll stick with it for the good industrial and technological cooperation we have with SK..

I have stated in PDF and in Defense Hub for some posts, even we cannot trust France, they are part of EU, and both USA and EU has done embargo to Indonesia over East Timor issue.

About F 16, I just see it will be economical to order it due current F 16 infrastructure we already have and I though it will be cheaper. That present F 16 V deal is quite shocking though, and it is some how loosen my resistance for our Mindef to buy Rafale.

About USA, we will not likely get any embargo from US due to US vs China competition. US needs Indonesia in that power game which is similar like what happened during cold war. During cold war, Indonesia was in US side due to our opposition to communism and during that period even US allow Indonesia to invade East Timor and kept that nation under our wrapped for quite long.

The embargo happened right after the cold war ended in 1990, US doesnt need Indonesia anymore as it has already a sole superpower. The same situation is unlikely to happen since China is a better competitor than USSR. The competition between USA and China will be very long and during that period we should improve our defense industry to achieve independency in the long term. Just like happening in cold war, both Indonesia and US interest is also alligned in relation to SCS power game, both support the UNCLOS law.

Correct, KF21/IFX program will not provide us with 100 % independency, but it is already one and two step ahead to achieve that goal. This program is very essential to propel Indonesian Aerospace into a next level aerospace industry, what I am doing here is to protect Indonesian Aerospace future sales.

So I am against the acquisition of new fighter beyond 16 planes order, regardless it is F 16 V or Rafale, my consistency over this has been shown for quite long in this forum and other forum (DT), before the migration of Indonesian members from PDF, you can see me debating with Indonesian members who favor large acquisition of F 16 since during that period there is plan to buy around 32 F 16 V to replace Hawk squadron, my position at that time was against the plan and keep those 32 Hawk until 2030 until KF21/IFX replace them gradually inshaAllah.

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

Well I am not in support of big acquisition of fighter planes since I believe it is not supportive for our local defense industry, let alone the running KF 21/IFX program can be jeopardized because of that. I am also an economic guy, I have concern over our economy and dont want to spend unnecessary spending.

I am fine with the normal order just to fill our F 5 squadron with 6-16 possible acquisition. For my analysist that is actually based on fact. So far the order of just 6 planes are also in accordance with my previous analysis which is derived from Bappenas plan and later the Finance Ministry decision to cut those 1.6 billion USD foreign loan back program into just 1.1 billion USD. That program is for the period of 2020-2024, that was shown during Air Force meeting in early 2021.

How many quantity of F-15EX will IAF purchase

 

[Indos]

How many quantity of F-15EX will IAF purchase

Wish list of Prabowo, no financial support from other Ministry (Planning Ministry and Finance Ministry) are taken so far

More like Indonesia Osprey Helicopter saga.

I mean even for Rafale the contract is just for 6 planes

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

Wish list of Prabowo, no financial support from other Ministry (Planning Ministry and Finance Ministry) are taken so far

More like Indonesia Osprey Helicopter saga.

I mean even for Rafale the contract is just for 6 planes

I know it is for 6 fighters which could mean 6 every year? until it reaches 42? but what about the 15-EX

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494044662549471234

I know it is for 6 planes which could mean 6 every year? until it reaches 42? but what about the 15-EX

No, 6 is for 2020-2024 period if we see the current situation, MRCA program is only 1.1 billion USD for 2020-2024 period, unless if Minister of Planning and Minister of Finance makes changes. 36 planes are only Prabowo commitment, but he is not Presiden.

 

[Indos]

Here is Air Force acquisition program (2020-2024), MRCA is part of the big plan, it is not the only program. The budget for fighter is 1.6 billion USD for 2020-2024 period ( approved by Planning Minister), later Finance Minister slash it further into 1.1 billion USD

Backed by foreign loan ( foreign equipment)

Backed by domestic loan ( local defense industry product)

 

[Dermomania]

Berapa jumlah F-15EX yang akan dibeli IAF?

36. 36 F 15 EX and 42 Rafale.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494044662549471234

No, 6 is for 2020-2024 period if we see the current situation, MRCA program is only 1.1 billion USD for 2020-2024 period, unless if Minister of Planning and Minister of Finance makes changes. 36 planes are only Prabowo commitment, but he is not Presiden.

Prabowo The Next President 2024. Sri Mulyani out. Hihihihihihi

 

[Indos]

36. 36 F 15 EX and 42 Rafale.


Prabowo The Next President 2024. Sri Mulyani out. Hihihihihihi

So you are going to vote for Prabowo ????? I mean seriously.

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My votes will be for this guys

Anies and Ridwan will likely become a couple, these are third and fourth most popular joining force

Or Ganjar Pranowo ( the most popular although the different with other 2 candidates ( Anies and Prabowo) is not that large

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I dont want to vote this guy ( I always vote for Jokowi in 2019 and 2014 election)

Prabowo and Puan I think will not likely get enough votes as Puan is not popular, and Islamist supporters of Prabowo in previous 2 elections will likely go to Anies and Ridwan.

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

36. 36 F 15 EX and 42 Rafale.


Prabowo The Next President 2024. Sri Mulyani out. Hihihihihihi

He maybe the right man as we find ourselves in multipolar world

 

[nufix]

So you are going to vote for Prabowo ????? I mean seriously.

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My votes will be for this guys

Anies and Ridwan will likely become a couple, these are third and fourth most popular joining force

Or Ganjar Pranowo ( the most popular although the different with other 2 candidates ( Anies and Prabowo) is not that large

View attachment 816706

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I dont want to vote this guy ( I always vote for Jokowi in 2019 and 2014 election)

Prabowo and Puan I think will not likely get enough votes as Puan is not popular, and Islamist supporters of Prabowo in previous 2 elections will likely go to Anies and Ridwan.

View attachment 816707

Anies and Emil are dangerous combination though. Both are showmen with no real works to show for. I mean dont get me wrong, they are great at what they do, garnering support, playing with identity politics (Anies with Islam and Emil with Sunda ethnic), but those are recipes for disaster.

 

[Indos]

Anies and Emil are dangerous combination though. Both are showmen with no real works to show for. I mean dont get me wrong, they are great at what they do, garnering support, playing with identity politics (Anies with Islam and Emil with Sunda ethnic), but those are recipes for disaster.

I want Emil become President, but until now he doesnt get enough support, so if he becomes VP at least it is better than Anies alone.

Ganjar Pranowo looks like good debater, he is my second choice.

I want to see programs and who are people behind them. My focus is on local defense industry and defense spending. I want responsible person to become our Presiden. I think for economy, mostly they will likely follow the economic grand plan that will be made during Jokowi administration, since 2024 is the final year of our long term economic granplan.

Any one but Prabowo is my slogan here

 

[nufix]

I want Emil become President, but until now he doesnt get enough support, so if he becomes VP at least it is better than Anies alone.

Ganjar Pranowo looks like good debater, he is my second choice.

I want to see programs and who are people behind them. My focus is on local defense industry and defense spending. I want responsible person to become our Presiden. I think for economy, mostly they will likely follow the economic grand plan that will be made during Jokowi administration, since 2024 is the final year of our long term economic granplan.

Any one but Prabowo is my slogan here

If I had to choose between Emil and Anies, then Emil is a better alternative than Anies. Anies has a tainted track record. He was chosen out of identity politic, he is known for not continuing programs of his political rival regardless whether the program is good, he is also known for wasting money on senseless projects that only serves him. Jokowi‘s projects and vision will surely get trampled by Anies if he is chosen.

In my case, Ganjar is my first choice, second is Prabowo, third is Emil. Emil could be my second choice if things change. The rest like Puan or Anies doesnt interest me.