Indonesia’s New Military Commands: A South China Sea Focus?
Last week, The Jakarta Post reported that the Indonesian military would focus its future operations in the western part of country to deal with foreign threats, including in the South China Sea. The report is interesting to consider given ongoing plans to restructure the Indonesian military’s commands over the next decade.
The newspaper quoted Indonesia’s outspoken military chief General Moeldoko as saying that Indonesia’s forces – which according to military plans would form joint regional commands (locally abbreviated Kogabwilhan) to be in place by 2024 – would focus on the west of the country, especially in Sumatra and Kalimantan given flash points like the South China Sea.
“In the future, we expect that the South China Sea will be a flash point. So a task force, such as the Kogabwilhan, will be very important,” Moeldoko said.
Put simply, the essence of the Kogabwilhan concept is to structure the military into multi-service regional commands consisting of a combination of army, air force and navy units and led by generals who would be able to respond quickly and flexibly to flash points with greater autonomy relative to the central leadership in Jakarta.
The Kogabwilhan idea is not a new one, and former Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had begun plans to implement it as early as 2008. His successor and Indonesia’s current president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo agreed to continue with these ongoing plans last November.
The specifics, however, are still unclear. Moeldoko had previously proposed the establishment of three Kogabwilhan groups to Jokowi and his team. Geographically, the three groups were speculated to focus on the western, eastern and central parts of the country, and one was believed to be located in Sulawesi and a second in Papua. In line with this, The Jakarta Post report and Moeldoko’s comments might be simply suggest that the third Kogabwilhan group will indeed be located in the western part of the country and that it would focus its operations on dealing with foreign threats particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
If so, that would seem to make sense. As military expert and researcher at Indonesia’s Center for Strategic and International Studies Iis Giandarsah says, “the most immediate flashpoints are located near the land and sea borders of Sumatra and Kalimantan.” While the threats are many, one of them would be the South China Sea. As I have written before, while Indonesia is technically not a claimant in the South China Sea disputes, Jakarta is increasingly concerned about how the nine-dash line overlaps with the waters surrounding the resource-rich Natuna Islands and has played a role in facilitating dispute resolution efforts more broadly. It is also in the process of building up its own capabilities.
That being said, it is important to keep two things in mind. First, the South China Sea focus in Indonesia’s joint commands is far from a novel development. Under Yudhoyono, Indonesia reportedly planned to have four Kogabwilhan groups with one of them heavily focused on the Natuna flash point.
Second, getting these commands finalized over the next few years is a challenge. Ensuring all services are equally represented within these commands is by itself revolutionary idea because the army has traditionally dominated things in Indonesia. Then there are other questions such as how leadership within these commands would work and the sorts of threats they should each be responsible for. It is important to keep these considerations in mind even as we learn more about Indonesia’s joint commands in the future.
Indonesia’s New Military Commands: A South China Sea Focus? | The Diplomat
China’s Neighbors Bulk Up Militaries
Despite Beijing’s efforts to cool tensions, many nations prepare for potential conflict
MANILA—China’s neighbors are moving forward with the modernization of their militaries with new fighter jets, submarines and other hardware, even as Beijing has tried to tamp down territorial tensions in the region.
The military buildup is an indication that many Asian countries see little reason to adjust their long-term preparations for potential friction with China, despite Beijing’s diplomatic and economic charm offensive.
China made a dramatic shift in its diplomatic approach at a summit in Beijing in November, adopting a more conciliatory tone. This included the first face-to-face meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe since both took power in 2012.
That came after China pledged to invest billions in regional ports and infrastructure, with great potential benefits for its neighbors.
Many Asian nations are participating in those programs or receiving other Chinese aid. But underlying sources of tension haven’t gone away.
It has only been half a year since Vietnamese and Chinese vessels were jostling off islands claimed by both countries after China parked a giant oil rig there. A few months after that, Indian and Chinese troops tussled for weeks in the Himalayas along the countries’ disputed border.
Vietnam recently received the third of six new Russian submarines, valued at about $2 billion in total—a landmark for a country that has never had submarines. It also ordered six Russian frigates and is increasing the size of its Sukhoi fighter-jet fleet to 36 planes.
Smaller nations like Vietnam don’t expect to seriously challenge China’s military, but want to make China think twice before pressing claims.
“At the minimum we have to decrease China’s ability to act with impunity,” a Philippine defense official said, recalling China’s 2012 capture of the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
A Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Vietnam’s military programs weren’t aimed specifically at China. “The purchase of defense equipment is a normal practice of all countries in the world,” said Nguyen Thi Thai Thong.
Better-equipped countries, such as India and Japan, want China to respect them as military equals.
India is establishing a new mountain corps for deployment along its Himalayan boundaries. It is also testing ballistic missiles with a range of over 3,000 miles, which could strike inside China. In January, India test-fired one of the missiles from a mobile launcher for the first time at an island off its northeastern coast.
BULKING UP
Asian nations are making big investments in new military hardware. Some of the latest purchases (with seller in parentheses):
INDIA
126 Rafale fighter jets (France)
22 AH-64E Apache gunships (U.S.)
8 P-8I Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft (U.S.)
INDONESIA
3 Chang Bogo-class submarines (South Korea)
24 F-16 fighter jets (U.S.)
16 Sukhoi Su-27/Su-30 jets (Russia)
8 AH-64E Apache gunships (U.S.)
JAPAN
4 helicopter carriers (Japan)
42 F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters (U.S)
17 V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft (U.S.)
MALAYSIA
2 Scorpene submarines (France)
6 Gowind-class frigates (France)
PHILIPPINES
12 FA-50 fighter/trainer jets (South Korea)
2 Hamilton-class cutters (U.S.)
VIETNAM
6 Kilo-class submarines (Russia)
6 Gepard-class frigates (Russia)
36 Sukhoi Su-30 jets (Russia)
Tokyo is setting up Japan’s first amphibious operations unit to defend East China Sea islands contested by China and is adding 42 F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters. Japan is increasing its defense budget by 2% in the fiscal year starting April 1.
China continues to outpace its neighbors in military spending—its military budget has grown around 10% annually for the past two decades.
The U.S. has encouraged its allies in Asia, particularly Japan, to build up military capability, which takes some pressure off Washington itself and also creates markets for U.S. weaponry.
India’s military hardware paraded before President Barack Obama in New Delhi in January included a Boeing Co. P-8I antisubmarine-warfare plane and Lockheed Martin C-130J transport aircraft, which could help rush troops and equipment to India’s Himalayan boundary with China.
Vietnam is poised to receive American surveillance aircraft and other systems as Washington and Hanoi improve diplomatic ties.
The U.S. partially lifted a long-standing arms embargo on Vietnam last October.
Still, a stronger Vietnamese military isn’t likely to deter any future moves by Beijing.
China has been “disconcerted” by Vietnam’s modernization plans, said Tim Huxley, executive director of IISS-Asia, a Singapore-based security think tank. But Zhang Baohui, a politics professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said China is confident of its military superiority over the Vietnamese.
“The buildup of the weaker party won’t much motivate the stronger party,” he said.
Despite complaints from South China Sea neighbors, China continues to reclaim land to build new bases in disputed waters. Last month, Philippine officials said a new island capable of supporting a large Chinese airstrip at Fiery Cross Reef in the contested Spratly Islands was “50% complete.”
Vietnam showed that it, too, remains wary of Chinese activities in contested seas, joining Manila in denouncing Beijing’s land-reclamation projects. Pham Binh Minh, Vietnam’s deputy prime minister, visited Manila in late January for talks about upgrading the two countries’ security ties, partly to help block China’s regional expansion.
China says it has “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratlys and the waters around them. “The relevant construction and maintenance that the Chinese government does on them are China’s legitimate rights,” the Defense Ministry said.
China has long argued that military modernization is normal. But Beijing has criticized Japan for easing restrictions on its Self-Defense Forces, saying Tokyo is “deliberately fabricating the China threat.” In 2013, after Tokyo launched its second helicopter carrier, China said it was “concerned over Japan’s constant expansion of its military equipment.”
Beijing spent five times more on defense than the ten Southeast Asian countries combined in 2013, according to Sipri, a Swedish security institute, with investments in stealth planes, aircraft carriers and other cutting-edge capabilities.
Meanwhile, its neighbors are also bulking up. The Philippines ordered a dozen Korean fighter jets valued at $410 million, and has earmarked $1.8 billion for new hardware over the next two years, including naval frigates.
Malaysia is in the market for new fighter jets and has recently received its first pair of submarines, bought from France for roughly $2.2 billion. Indonesia has plans to station newly purchased Korean submarines and U.S. Apache gunships near islands it deems vulnerable to Chinese encroachment.
China isn’t the only reason Asian countries are spending more on defense, of course. In Southeast Asia especially, countries have long had weak militaries in need of new equipment just to keep operating. Many of them have their own rivalries as well.
But taken together, the latest spending could just wind up raising the risks of a deadly confrontation if tensions worsen.
Some experts say stronger militaries elsewhere could change the strategic calculus for Beijing eventually, possibly making it more willing to negotiate settlements. “The last thing China wants is to surround itself with modern, capable militaries,” said Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila. As its neighbors upgrade militarily, “China is bound to face greater risks of unwanted escalation and resistance.”
—Yuka Hayashi contributed to this article.
Write to Trefor Moss at
Trefor.Moss@wsj.com
China’s Neighbors Build Up Militaries - WSJ
