First of all, I should once more apologize to the forum members regarding the series of replies going off topic and thus withdrawing my previous statement that my last post would be the last one to do so.
Please,
@dr.knowhow, that's a strawman argument.
When did I say that? No need for quotation marks as I have never said "Indonesian route". I said Korea may learn a thing or two from Indonesia and this doesn't mean Korea should carbon-copy Indonesia's strategy. You comments on Korea of building EADS C212 is not something I suggested, but I have to clarify my position that I am very much in favour of designing & building indigenous utility & transport turboprop/turbofan military aircrafts that should eventually replace existing fleets of CN-235. You cannot seriously suggest that just having limited numbers of C-130 variants is good enough for Korean Airforce.
Many airlines which want to operate their flights from Korea for both domestic and international air routes. If the Korean government is bothered enough to push Korea's indigenous products by offering incentives to those airlines much as they are doing for other products made in Korea, it is entirely possibile, especially for those profitable domestic and international routes with relatively short distances.
I will remind you that the route between Seoul and Jeju is the busiest air route in the world by a wide margin and some other routes within Korea and between neigbouring countries are on the same list as well. You implication that there is no market and no one is going to buy Korea-made aircrafts is more of sour grapes as you try to rationalize Korea's lack of ambition and vision of in aerospace industry. Yes, Japan has failed, not because they had no market nor technologies, but they mismanaged their project and is rocked by the global pandemic. Korea may learn from their mistakes, but it doesn't mean Korea is also bound to fail in developing indigenious aircrafts.
I am sure someone said very similar things in the past when Korea tried to build a highway and the automotive industry. I am sure they insisted that it wouldn't pay off. In fact, Korea is in the better position as they have money, technologies and humann resources to pull it off. Fokker? I think there is not a single air route from Schiphol Airport (or Netherlands) to anywhere in the world ranks in the top 10 businest air route in the world unless I am mistaken or even when Fokker folded. However, I think it would have been an interesting 'what if' Samsung had bought Fokker when the company had an opportunity.
No, the company is still interested in developing both a commercial aircraft by utilizing a military cargo aircraft or vice versa. In fact, the industry cannot survive on incomes from military sales alone. Please note, that over 50% of KAI's revenues was generated from civilan sales in the last year. Sustainabilty of aerospace industry IS crucial for national security.
I hope you would understand that not all Made in Korea are best in the world, but they are still either employed by the government or pushed into private markets to protect her national interests. Why Aerospace industry is different? Espeically when KAI is still exploring an idea of developing a commercial aircarft. I don't disagree with you that Korea needs to spend more money to support fabless chip designing comapnies, but it shouldn't be a choice between two, but rather both industries should be on the list for investing.
In fact, I believe the pandemic presents a rare opportunity to late comers of aerospace industry. Many existing companies that have dominated the market are failing, inlcuding the industry's heavy weight, Boeing.
I am more than happy to discuss further if you can actually repuate my point that Korea has one of the busiest air route in the world and many other busy and profitable domestic and international air routes, which means there is clearly a market for Korea-made commerical aircrafts.
Again, this is strawman. I did not specifically say that Korea should build a turboprop aircraft only nor I have claimed that Korean airlines are buying turboprop aircrafts en masse. I am more than happy for Korea to build either turboprop or turbofans aircrarft for those profitable domestic & international air routes. However, it is the fact that KAI is still interested in turboprop aircrafts as their recent note indicates that Korean OEM Mid-size Civilian A/C is a turboprop aircraft. It seems like KAI may disagree with you assessment. Either ways, the domestic & international air routes from Korea will continue to present an opportunity for Korean aviation & aerospace industry. I again politely suggest you to repuate this point.
So far what you have offered seems like a very similar argument that Korean had argued why they shouldn't build a car industry many years ago when Korea actually had no market, no money, no enigneers and the automotive industry was dominated by Chrysler and others.
Furthermore, I should then apologize to you as well
@SgtGungHo, that there was my misunderstanding regarding your opinion.
Some excuses from my side is that, for me at least, the way you conveyed the Japanese and Chinese project was, say, a bit confusing in regards to that you were mentioning the size of the aircraft and setting Indonesia as the comparable model. Though it is also true that I have jumped to conclusion (that you were suggesting the East Asian countries should build a smaller aircraft, more specifically, something as small as the N219) too soon without concrete information.
Then again, I think it's safe to say both of us have quite some valid points here and there, although it might also be true that I am just a fox in front of the fence like you've said.
Funny(in a good way) how you have more optimism in Korea's aerospace industry as a foreigner than I do. (also I'm quite surprised for the amount of knowledge you have concerning these matters, like the failed Fokker-Samsung deal).
Back to the discussion, even after considering all those things you have pointed out (and yes, I do know that ICN-CJU and GMP-CJU routes are one of the busiest in the world and so are the few other routes connecting to nearby countries), I would still remain pessimistic.
Where we find ourselves disagreeing the most, at least from what I think, is if Korea would be able to sell those planes if they ever make one.
Once more, I agree there is no denying that the domestic market for Korean airlines for regional jets are present.
You are talking about government incentives for the aircraft but rest assured the development itself would include quite a huge sum of government subsidies in the first place. If it is really worth all that money, I'm not sure. That's the reason I've brought up the semiconductor industry as a comparison. It doesn't needs to be semiconductor but could be anything. Any industry that we could compare to the aerospace industry in terms of it economic ripple effect.
It's almost blatantly obvious that the Japanese and Chinese airlines would not buy a Korean plane so it's all up to the Korean airline industry to fill in their demands. If everything goes fine, breaking even will be easy and even making quite some profit would not be hard in the end. Though I'm not sure if that profit would ever be enough to justify all the investment. I guess you are but I've seen too many rosy dreams.
Let's say KAI has a bigger dream. Not only will they sell these aircraft to the Korean airlines but in international market in a bigger scale. How will it compete in the US market for example? How long will it take for it to achieve FAA approval? The extra cost of testing? Will it be able to succeed in the scope clause market like the E-jet did or will it face difficulties just like the CRJ? Wouldn't it be hard to fight against A220 in Europe?
The reason all this would matter is because the same argument would be brought up in the parliament, by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, by the citizen who have votes.
To your point that Korea lacks ambition, determination and long term plan, who exactly should have those? The MPs have their own background and industries they are related to, normal citizen would be happy riding the train to Busan and flying B737 to Osaka. Should we just hope for a president to show up who is somehow also an aerospace enthusiast?
You came up with the highways and cars Korea built and manufactured as an example but remember, those were the days when we had a dictator not an elected president. Same could be said to almost every important industry in Korea apart from the electronics industry. It was an easy question back then. Who should have ambition and determination? Mr. President. Simple.
With all that in mind, will it be easy for the government to pour more money into this already grandioso project?
The question is, do you think that a Korean commercial airliner could be sold, even domestically, without any additional government incentives?
You've said things made in Korea were employed by the government or pushed into private markets to protect her national interests and that is true historically, but on the other hand we also have cases like Surion when even governmental organizations like the police, CG and the fire department favored foreign models over it and only a handful were actually sold thanks to pressure from the upper echelon of the government.
I really am just not sure of all these uncertainties.
ps. About that plan of KAI,
Again, this is strawman. I did not specifically say that Korea should build a turboprop aircraft only nor I have claimed that Korean airlines are buying turboprop aircrafts en masse. I am more than happy for Korea to build either turboprop or turbofans aircrarft for those profitable domestic & international air routes. However, it is the fact that KAI is still interested in turboprop aircrafts as their recent note indicates that Korean OEM Mid-size Civilian A/C is a turboprop aircraft. It seems like KAI may disagree with you assessment. Either ways, the domestic & international air routes from Korea will continue to present an opportunity for Korean aviation & aerospace industry. I again politely suggest you to repuate this point.
I guess you also saw that presentation from KAI called "Status & Vision [...]" but I thought they were aiming for a jet powered OEM aircraft as seen in their image? That OEM thingy is a mere plan as of yet and what they actually are aiming for in the near-mid term is like I've said, a licensed, probably turboprop platform which they could use to build SOJ and MPA out of it and making a transport aircraft utilizing the expertise gathered throughout this process.
