Don,t know where this came from but Indians are claiming a
1.7$trillion GDP by 2012 AND $2 TRILLION by 2015. Growths rates of over 9% anticipated.
This is very rapid growth.
Indian economy moving closer to $ 2 trillion mark
The net consequences of huge GDP are massive to the current strategic balance.
these are not some random projections claimed by indian's in general, but comes from a very creditable source - Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC).
indian economy today stands at rs61,32,171 crores (crore=rs1,00,00,000, exchange rate: 1us dollar=rs46) and when the same is converted to us dollars, indian economy stands at $1.33trillion.
nominal gdp (which is what is spoken here) gets calculated on
1 real growth rate achieved,
2 inflation rate and
3 if it is being converted to someother currency, like the us $, then the prevailing exchange rate.
real growth rate: india hopes to achieve double digit growth rate figures very soon, infact it could very well happen this very fiscal. projection for next 5 year - 8%-10%, i will take the average as 9%.
inflation rate: 5%
exchange rate : rs45/us $ (rupee will further strengthen with more cash inflows from sources like remittance, fdi, fii, venture capital, money raised by india companies overseas and then put to use in india, loans/grants from world financial institutions, etc, which means one could see a repeat of 2006-07 when the rupee was trading at near rs40/us $, and if that rate was to be taken indian economy is already at $1.53trillion)
putting all these figures in perspective, the insight one gets is those projects are not off mark provided the above mentioned criteria if fulfilled, and with that as a backdrop you can be rest assured of india's gdp more that doubling from the 2trillion mark by the end of fiscal 2020, which means a very real possibility of over 4trillion.
per capita:
someone said it will take india 100 years to eradicate the poverty that is seen in india.
as per goldman sachs (on a conservative estimate) india's per capita income by 2050 should be 30,000 dollars from the present 1,000 dollars.
getting things a little more in perspective:
india's gini coefficient index is far-far better than that of china's (
List of countries by income equality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) which tells you the income disparity between the top 10%/20% from the rest of the population.
further digging into the per caipta and how the country has progressed and i am taking pakistan into the picture.
india's per capita income in 1993 was 54% of pakistan's, which means where on an average a pakistani earned 100dollars, in contrast an indian just earned 54dollars.
last year world bank put india at an advantage of over 14% over pakistan and they are yet to release just gone by fiscal's data. (pak - 981 dollars, india - 1122 dollars -
size of economies -
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf and
population -
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/POP.pdf)
going a little further, as i have mentioned before, goldman sachs puts india's per capita at 30,000 dollars by year 2050 but during the same period pakistan's per capita is projected at 7,000 dollars which means an indian will be earning if not more then certainly 4 times to a his pakistani counterpart.
about parity between indian and pak armed forces:
we in india would be more than happy if pakistan was to match us bullet for a bullet, man for a man, jet for a jet, and any and every thing that is possible in the realm of armed forces. we wish our friends in pakistan all the very best in this endeavor.
