India's Total Fertility Rate finally falls below replacement

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

Seems the data was collated before Corona...UP's TFR data will be taken in 2nd phase but 4 years back it was much below Bihar's contemporary numbers...The population bomb in India is not a religious bomb but rather a culture/region bomb..That's my final observation....Bihar still sabotages rest of India with 3 children per woman

Below is from Star HBD (Human Bio-Diversity) blogger Anatoly Karlin:


This the news from the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), covering the years 2019-20. (h/t Cicerone, now Tweeting as @BirthGauge):



Previous NFHS surveys at Wikipedia stretching to 1981.

India overall is now at TFR = 2.1 children per woman. Kerala, long one of the lowest TFR states (as well as one of the most socially developed), is now middling.

But most interestingly, a number of states are approaching near East Asian lows. These are mainly the islands states (Sikkim at 1.1), and – most curiously – majority Muslim Jammu and Kashmir (1.4).

Bihar, the worst Indian state, has the highest TFR.

I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.


India Fertility Falls Below Replacement

 

[Naofumi]

These Biharis need to use some contraceptives, dang it's 2021 now.

 

[Cliftonite]

So are we looking at eventual BIMARU-ization of India? Given that the south and northwest have TFR below replacement.

 

[KurtisBrian]

411 people/km2 so crowded. Surprised Indians are not beating people who have more than two children.

 

[Nowshera]

If the is 2.1 but missing high birth rate UP which makes up 20% of the population it is almost certainly above 2.1. Also Lakshadweep is more Muslim than AJK and has a similar TFR whilst Ladakh is half Muslim and also has a low TFR. Therefore I don't understand why it is curious that a Muslim state has a low fertility rate as only 2 of the 11 highest states have a Muslim population significantly above the national average (Assam and Kerala), vs 4 in the slower half.

 

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

411 people/km2 so crowded. Surprised Indians are not beating people who have more than two children.

Indian cities and towns are bunched up...narrow roads and lanes...there is no urban sprawl in India...the car is unworkable in majority of the Indian towns...But the plus side is this leaves a huge part of the country to rich forests...where some of the world's largest megafaunas abound and thrive...a lot of Lions, Togers,Elephants, Leopards, Rhinos, etc...If anything India can be prpud of , it is the wildlife conservation aspect, inspite of being one of the poorest countries on Earth....less resource utilization due to near vegetarian diet of most Indians is the cause here

If the is 2.1 but missing high birth rate UP which makes up 20% of the population it is almost certainly above 2.1. Also Lakshadweep is more Muslim than AJK and has a similar TFR whilst Ladakh is half Muslim and also has a low TFR. Therefore I don't understand why it is curious that a Muslim state has a low fertility rate as only 2 of the 11 highest states have a Muslim population significantly above the national average (Assam and Kerala), vs 4 in the slower half.

UP's will come along in second phase..UP doesnot make more than 15 percent of India's population...in Last survey UP had TFR of 2.7 compared to Bihar's 3.4...........This time it would have certainly dipped to 2.3......that wont be anough to make India's TFR go above 2.1 as it stands in 2020...Corona would have crashed TFR further...A huge spike in inflation will complete demplish any baby making dreams of large chunk of Indians

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Seems the data was collated before Corona...UP's TFR data will be taken in 2nd phase but 4 years back it was much below Bihar's contemporary numbers...The population bomb in India is not a religious bomb but rather a culture/region bomb..That's my final observation....Bihar still sabotages rest of India with 3 children per woman

Below is from Star HBD (Human Bio-Diversity) blogger Anatoly Karlin:


This the news from the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), covering the years 2019-20. (h/t Cicerone, now Tweeting as @BirthGauge):



Previous NFHS surveys at Wikipedia stretching to 1981.

India overall is now at TFR = 2.1 children per woman. Kerala, long one of the lowest TFR states (as well as one of the most socially developed), is now middling.

But most interestingly, a number of states are approaching near East Asian lows. These are mainly the islands states (Sikkim at 1.1), and – most curiously – majority Muslim Jammu and Kashmir (1.4).

Bihar, the worst Indian state, has the highest TFR.

I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.


India Fertility Falls Below Replacement

This is very good news for India. Quality over quantity. This also shows high birth rates are informed by ignorance and cut across religions. Jammu Kashmir with Muslim majority has low TFR but Bihar which I assume is Hindu majority has high TFR.

 

[Ray02589]

These Biharis need to use some contraceptives, dang it's 2021 now.

The global emphasis on reducing fertility rates is misplaced. The population decline of Japan and South Korea, despite their prosperity, is not a good thing and creates a lopsided demographic profile with larger number of elderly than children. More diapers are sold in Japan for adults than children. As these elderly die the population decline accelerates with no way to turn it around. South Korea tried and failed.

On the other hand Israeli fertility is actually rising even among the wealthy Jewish majority due to religious emphasis on family. Therefore the answer is to promote family values (something the US used to do when I was a kid, especially in southern states).

This is very good news for India. Quality over quantity. This also shows high birth rates are informed by ignorance and cut across religions. Jammu Kashmir with Muslim majority has low TFR but Bihar which I assume is Hindu majority has high TFR.

Lakshadweep is also entirely Muslims with a low TFR (and no geopolitical issues).

 

[Cliftonite]

The global emphasis on reducing fertility rates is misplaced. The population decline of Japan and South Korea, despite their prosperity, is not a good thing and creates a lopsided demographic profile with larger number of elderly than children. More diapers are sold in Japan for adults than children. As these elderly die the population decline accelerates with no way to turn it around. South Korea tried and failed.

On the other hand Israeli fertility is actually rising even among the wealthy Jewish majority due to religious emphasis on family. Therefore the answer is to promote family values (something the US used to do when I was a kid, especially in southern states).

The US and Western Europe depend on immigration for a positive TFR.

It's predicted that US will lose its White majority by 2050 and have majority minority population (where no race is above 50%), due to migration from Latin America.

 

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

This is very good news for India. Quality over quantity. This also shows high birth rates are informed by ignorance and cut across religions. Jammu Kashmir with Muslim majority has low TFR but Bihar which I assume is Hindu majority has high TFR.

It's a culture/region effect...parochial dark age mindset of Bihar (yes which is Hindu majority) is responsble for this...neighbouring West Bengal which is Hindu majority althoiugh has a more progresive European like 1.6 TFR

 

[Clairvoyant]

Great going,it has to be done otherwise India would run out of space to accommodate it's people.

Let's hope the same happens in Pakistan as well.

 

[Clutch]

Muslim Indians will out breed the Hindus with our super fertility.

Here comes "Baby Jihad"!!!

 

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

Muslim Indians will out breed the Hindus with our super fertility.

Here comes "Baby Jihad"!!!

you do realize that Muslims of say Kerala or West Bengal or Jammu and Kashmir have lower TFR than Hindus of Bihar and possibly UP?

Baby Jihad,Love Jihad----all these are figments of imagination


Muslims donot have extra superpowers to overcome inflation and economic collapse...Corona did India a favour...expect the crash to be even more drastic in 4 years time after the effects of Corona crash are clear

 

[Naofumi]

The global emphasis on reducing fertility rates is misplaced. The population decline of Japan and South Korea, despite their prosperity, is not a good thing and creates a lopsided demographic profile with larger number of elderly than children. More diapers are sold in Japan for adults than children. As these elderly die the population decline accelerates with no way to turn it around. South Korea tried and failed.

High fertility rates will always produce a Nigeria like state though I agree that exceptionally low TFRs can be harmful, the trick is to strike a balance between the two like the Iran reversed successfully.

On the other hand Israeli fertility is actually rising even among the wealthy Jewish majority due to religious emphasis on family.

Israel's TFR serves a political purpose - to maintain demographic dominance over Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. And it is NOT without issues, it leaves Israel with living standards comparable to a central American country despite having a vibrant economy and considerable foreign aid, not to mention the potential overcrowding in world's 17th most dense country.
Forget Iran. Is the fertility rate the real threat to Israel's existence? - Israel News - Haaretz.com

 

[KurtisBrian]

Muslims donot have extra superpowers to overcome inflation and economic collapse...Corona did India a favour...expect the crash to be even more drastic in 4 years time after the effects of Corona crash are clear

Now I really wonder if Modi might be the modern day equivalent of Germany's Hindenburg and bringing a Hindenburg catastrophe to India (Oh the humanity). This will create fertile ground for some real crazy wacko Indian version of Hitler. Fourth Reich rises in not in old tired drained America but in bountiful young India.
How many production lines for various military weapon systems have already been set up in India? Set and waiting for a big war.