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India's Demonetization Disaster: Modi Liken Critics to Pakistan

RiazHaq

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http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/12/indias-demonetization-disaster-modi.html

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accused his critics of his demonetization decision of “brazenly standing in support of the corrupt and the dishonest” and equated their criticism with the “firing at the borders by Pakistan in a bid to provide cover to infiltrators”, according to the Indian media reports.


Diverting Attention:

Modi's attempt to use Pakistan to divert his people's attention from India's internal problems is not new. In fact, it's part of a pattern that seems to work in India. But why is it? What makes so many Indians so gullible? To answer this question, let us look at the following quote from Indian writer Yoginder Sikand's book "Beyond the Border":

"When I was only four years old and we were living in Calcutta (in 1971)...it was clear that "Pakistan" was something that I was meant to hate and fear, though I had not the faintest idea where and what that dreaded monster (Pakistan) was. What I heard and read about the two countries (India and Pakistan)--at school, on television and over radio, in the newspapers and from relatives and friends--only served to reinforce negative images of Pakistan, a country inhabited by people I necessarily had dread and even to define myself against. Pakistan and Muslim were equated as one while India and the Hindus were treated as synonymous. The two countries, as well as the two communities were said to be absolutely irreconcilable. To be Indian necessarily meant, it seemed to be uncompromisingly anti-Pakistani. To question this assumption, to entertain any thought other than the standard line about Pakistan and its people, was tantamount to treason."

Having been brought up with the misguided notion that Pakistan is evil incarnate, it seems that a large plurality of Indians viscerally hate Pakistan, and also hate anything that is likened to their western neighbor.

Such tactics may serve the politicians well but they does not solve India's long-standing problems that have put Indians among the most deprived people with the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates.

Modi's hasty demonetization decision is also indicative of the rash decision-making by India's Hindu Nationalist leader. It's dangerous for stability in South Asia.

Demonetization Debacle:

Mr. Modi's blunder in hasty demonetization of large Indian currency notes has brought untold suffering to the people of India. The instant removal of 85% of cash from circulation in a cash-based economy has been harshly criticized almost universally by experts around the world.

Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma has said it's Mr. Modi’s “clumsy exercise of state power” and it won’t achieve its ostensible aim—cracking down on so-called “black money” salted away by tax dodgers, according to Sadanad Dhume's op ed in Wall Street Journal.

Kaushik Basu, a former chief economic advisor to the government of India and former chief economist at the World Bank, has called it “poorly designed, with scant attention paid to the laws of the market.”

Forbes magazine's Steve Forbes has called Modi's demonetization decision "sickening and immoral". Wall Street Journal's editorial page has described it as "India's bizarre war on cash".

Here's an excerpt of how the Economist magazine describes the effects of Modi's "botched" demonetization decision on life and economy of the nation:

"Cash is used for 98% by volume of all consumer transactions in India. With factories idle, small shops struggling and a shortage of cash to pay farmers for their produce, the economy is stuttering. There are reports that sales of farm staples have fallen by half and those of consumer durables by 70%. Guesses at the effect on national output vary wildly, but the rupee withdrawal could shave two percentage points off annual GDP growth (running at 7.1% in the three months to September)".

Summary:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hasty demonetization decision has exposed his rash decision-making style. It has already caused untold suffering for ordinary Indians. Mr. Modi's decision processes have also raised serious questions about the formulation of Hindu Nationalists' Pakistan policy. Fears of miscalculation by Mr. Modi's inner circle about Pakistan's response to any major provocation could result in serious consequences for the entire region.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Hinduization of India Under Modi

Modi Fudging Indian GDP Figures

Is India Succeeding in Isolating Pakistan?

India's Covert War Against Pakistan

BJP Superpower Delusions and Policy Blunders

India Home to World's Largest Population of Poor, Hungry and Illiterates

MPI Reveals Depth of Deprivation in India


http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/12/indias-demonetization-disaster-modi.html
 
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This demon was Modi's creation & Indians don't have the courage to correct their leader.

As reported from India: "We are seeing in India at present a remarkable inversion of reason. "

The more the common people suffer from the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization, the more he is lauded for the “courage” shown by him in undertaking it.

An economic measure should be, and normally is, judged on the basis of how it benefits the people, and any measure that brings distress to the people is derided for that reason. What we find in the present case however is just the opposite: the more demonetization brings distress to the people, the more it is applauded for its wisdom and courage.
 
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China and India GDP figures tell a story, just not a true one

Nikkei Asian Review

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Eco...-GDP-figures-tell-a-story-just-not-a-true-one

I was curious about how Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise move to withdraw 500- and 1,000-rupee bills could impact the Indian economy, so I read a Dec. 8 report on the Indian central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

In the report, a term that was unfamiliar to me -- gross value added -- piqued my interest. The article said the central bank had downwardly revised its GVA-based growth forecast for the year through March 2017 to 7.1% from 7.6%.

Doing some research, I found that a country's GVA is the total of the value of goods and services produced in all industries and similar to GDP in terms of being a measure of production. The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, does not put much faith in GDP data and uses GVA instead to assess the country's economic health.

In early 2015, India switched its method of calculating GDP from a formula based on supply-side prices to one using demand-side prices. The result was a sharp increase in India's GDP growth rates. The growth figure for the July-September quarter in 2014, for instance, was upgraded to 8.2% from 5.3%.

Based on the new GDP calculation formula, India's economy grew by 7.6% in 2015, outpacing China's 6.9% expansion. The switch has helped India cultivate an image as the new star performer among emerging countries, replacing China.

---------

But the RBI argues that the old formula for calculating GDP, which uses supply-side prices in computing the total value created through production, is more suitable for accurately evaluating the country's economic performance.


-----

Which data is most useful for understanding how a country's economy is faring depends on the country's industrial structure, which evolves over time.

As for India, Yuji Kuronuma, who heads The Nikkei's bureau in New Delhi, says he mainly follows corporate lending, tax revenue and sales of Unilever's lifestyle products, but also keeps an eye on auto sales and airline passenger numbers.
 
:cheesy:
China and India GDP figures tell a story, just not a true one

Nikkei Asian Review

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Eco...-GDP-figures-tell-a-story-just-not-a-true-one

I was curious about how Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise move to withdraw 500- and 1,000-rupee bills could impact the Indian economy, so I read a Dec. 8 report on the Indian central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

In the report, a term that was unfamiliar to me -- gross value added -- piqued my interest. The article said the central bank had downwardly revised its GVA-based growth forecast for the year through March 2017 to 7.1% from 7.6%.

Doing some research, I found that a country's GVA is the total of the value of goods and services produced in all industries and similar to GDP in terms of being a measure of production. The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, does not put much faith in GDP data and uses GVA instead to assess the country's economic health.

In early 2015, India switched its method of calculating GDP from a formula based on supply-side prices to one using demand-side prices. The result was a sharp increase in India's GDP growth rates. The growth figure for the July-September quarter in 2014, for instance, was upgraded to 8.2% from 5.3%.

Based on the new GDP calculation formula, India's economy grew by 7.6% in 2015, outpacing China's 6.9% expansion. The switch has helped India cultivate an image as the new star performer among emerging countries, replacing China.

---------

But the RBI argues that the old formula for calculating GDP, which uses supply-side prices in computing the total value created through production, is more suitable for accurately evaluating the country's economic performance.


-----

Which data is most useful for understanding how a country's economy is faring depends on the country's industrial structure, which evolves over time.

As for India, Yuji Kuronuma, who heads The Nikkei's bureau in New Delhi, says he mainly follows corporate lending, tax revenue and sales of Unilever's lifestyle products, but also keeps an eye on auto sales and airline passenger numbers.

modi using every trick to "deliver"
 
#IMF revises #India GDP growth down to 6.6%. Says #India no longer fastest growing economy. #DeMonetisation #Modi

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/...-the-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-imf-says/

Canceling nearly 90% of cash in circulation cost India the mantle of world’s fastest-growing large economy in 2016, the International Monetary Fund said, though it categorized the slowdown as temporary.

India’s growth slowed to 6.6% last year from 7.6% in 2015, according to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, which estimates that China’s economy grew by 6.7% in 2016. The fund expects India’s expansion to bounce back to 7.2% this year and accelerate to 7.7% in 2018. China, meanwhile, is projected to continue decelerating, to 6.5% in 2017 and 6.0% the year after.

The IMF said it trimmed its 2016 forecast for India by one percentage point “primarily” because consumers tightened their purse-strings after November’s currency invalidation.

The fund’s sister institution, the World Bank, doesn’t think that was enough for India to lose the global growth crown, however. In the latest update to its global forecasts, released last week, the bank lowered its estimate of India’s 2016 growth to 7.0%—down from its earlier prediction of 7.6% but still ahead of China’s 6.7% growth.

None of these comparisons is exact. The IMF and World Bank both follow India’s practice of presenting output growth for the fiscal year, which ends March 31. China’s numbers—as with those of nearly every other large economy—are for the calendar year.

Still, the downgrades reflect deep uncertainty about India’s economic health since Nov. 8, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned the country—and the world—by declaring all of the country’s high-denomination bank notes null and void for transactions. The move, aimed at flushing out stacks of cash amassed by businessmen and crooked bureaucrats, has driven families to cut back on spending, companies to let go of workers and investors to put projects on hold.

Earlier this month, India’s Central Statistics Office said it expected growth for the financial year to come in at 7.1%. But that projection was calculated using economic data only through last October, before the currency move was announced. More-recent data weren’t—and in some cases, still aren’t—available to statisticians.
 
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