What's new

India's Cold Start Is Too Hot

Now this scenario is without the presence of tac Nukes. Now lets consider the same scenario with the availability of tac nukes. Previously 4 IBGs were countered/halted/thwarted within 60 hours with the non-availability of tac nukes, but now with the availability of the same, 4 may be more of the IBGs are countered/halted/vaporized well before the completion of 60 hours or 72 hours for that matter i.e. Pakistan achieved the same thing in 1/4 (may be more) of X time (X time being the time Pakistan had taken achieved the same results when tac nukes were not available). This would entail that your CS would go for a six in the very early stage. i know that some rather most of the jingos would now tell me that if this happens then india will surely retaliate with a similar but more massive response. i disagree! Why?

Just one point for the thing in bold.

There is/was one more thread running titled "Stupidity goes nuclear" in which a Pakistani viewpoint in Nasr is presented.

It made one important point --> Why would India not raise the bar of the war if its IBG's are hit by a TNW ?

Usage of TNW will depend on your perception of what India is capable of doing.

If you think India will keep quiet even if its troops get hit by TNW the Nasr is your perfect weapon.

If you think India will retaliate in a disproportionate manner if its troops get hit by a TNW, then using Nasr will lead to to a path of no return.

Your choice!
 
^^ Seems i struck a raw nerve there. Now it really seems that you are actually speaking from your behind. Really your post are as entertaining as a funfair at a funeral!

Anywaz, what i hypothesized in my previous reply was basing on the limitation of your beloved CSD. Only if you knew what CS was actually about, tsk tsk. i'll waste my time explaining you all this again once i am assured that you have actually read and comprehended the CSD.

Now let's start over again and let's see if you can refute and put some counter arguments to my step by step employment of tac nukes as mentioned in my previous reply, believe me, rants would not get you anywhere!

You know when a guy starts getting personal that he has run out of arguments that may convince anybody. I am not planning to go down the gutter route even if you want to. If you have an argument that can be made, make it. We will leave the judging of whose ideas came from whose behind for others to judge, I am under no obligation to accept your POV nor necessarily follow a exact format of discussion preferred by you. As you have no doubt gathered by now, it will take more than the flashing of your badge ( The Think Tank one or the " I would dazzle you with my knowledge but for the Official Secrets act") to impress a few of us who seem immune to your charm. Just because you are intoxicated by the power of your own verbosity does not mean that the rest of us should be too.
 
Perhaps.. we have missed the whole point of Nasr entirely..
By unveiling the previously ambiguous low threshold for nuclear weapons.
The establishment wants to make it clear to India.. that there will no longer be a chance to avoid nuclear war..

a double edged sword of stances if it is true.
It serves as a open discouragement to India to attack in case it is again a victim of "foreign" "atangvadi's..
therby ensuring that things never go that dangerous..

OR

It will motivate India to go after Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the opening round of any conflict.. and at the same time.. keep its weapons ready at a moments notice.

Whatever the case.. the Nasr is a big gamble on the part of the SPD.
 
First of all it is guud to know that some of you understand simple english. Atleast we can carry forward a discussion in this manner, or else tit for tat would do no guud to the discussion.

Ok.

Now, i think you mistakenly took my post in pre-COld Start scenario, though it was in the context of once CS has been unfolded. Still i'll try to explain.
Though i believe i am not a jingo yet i feel India will use nukes...I mean what other option will we be left with???

Once CS has been launched and the IBGs nuked and if a few of them are wiped out and if at the same time the total damage to indian forces is still below the strategic level (which No One can be Sure of) then the only option left for india is to withdraw. Or should i say the only sane option left for india is to refrain from aggravating the situation, one, because if not then it will only lead to the MAD scenario, two, the CSD itself revolve around a 'none-nuke' concept i.e. it would culminate/stop before the point of no return (the adversary is beaten enough that it finally decides to go nuclear at strategic levels).

Now this all is based on assumptions, similar enough the way the CSD is based on assumptions i.e. india assumes
that while executing CSD it would NOT cross the Pakistani nuclear threshold, which no one is sure of, similarly Pakistan would/should tac nuke the IBGs to an extent where the strategic damages to india does not cross it's nuclear threshold, which again no one is sure/clear of. So with this we can conclude that the Limited War and the CSD both are kinda nonviable as no side can guarantee that it would not cross the point of no return. With this, talking any further about these two strategies is simply beating about the bush!


I can totally understand if you are saying that India will not implement CSD fearing that IBG's will be nuked but hypothetically if we overcome the fear and Pakistan went ahead nuking our IBGs i cannot comprehend how will we not retaliate with nukes....Help me a bit more there.....
My discussion revolved around the possibility/scenario where the CS has been implemented. Nasr being a deterent or not begs a separate thread so no wonder you dont find me discussing the same in this thread.




Yeah this part make sense....As per you the tactical nuke missile will send a message to strategist on our side, try CSD and it is nuclear war...in short don't try CSD.....However what is troubling me and other likes is that the argument was same even before this tactical missile...You start CSD and i will retaliate with full force(including nukes)....In short with or without this tactical nuke, message was - try csd and be ready for nuclear war....What am i missing here????
Refer above.


Thanks for doing an extra effort in describing the situation to "limited knowledge group" people...However can u please elaborate about how the magnitude would be different??? If the aim is to nuke IBG's then wouldn't the payload be adjusted accordingly???
Please try to read about Tac Nukes and how they differ from strategic ones. Tac nukes are to quickly accomplish the task of destruction of enemy in minimum time and a single blow, while making sure that the other side is not provoked to a point where it (or its civilian population) feels threatened. No wonder Tac Nukes have counter-forces targets as their primary objectives.

Secondly as asked above, if hypothetically we did cross and you did nuke our IBG's(by Nasr or by Shaheen)
^^ We cannot nuke your IBGs with Shaheens. i have mentioned the reasons earlier.
what option will we be left with but to retaliate with nukes?????
One more option; to shut down the operations and go back to the barracks. Or if not, well there no limit to madness.

As far as deterrance is concerend i am in agreement with you(though IMO NASR don't bring any new deterrance)...but here we are talking about a point when IBG's have entered Pak(which means deterrance is no longer there) and Pak has retaliated with Nukes....

I believe our disagreement is here - You believe if Pak use NASR on Indian IBG's then India do not have a case to nuke Pak in retaliation, however if Pak use Shaheen then India have a case....If that is correct can u please describe a bit more???
i dont know if Pakistan will use Shaheen or not, we are currently discussing employment of Nasr. For the remainder, please refer to above.

Now that make lot of sense...Ignore what i asked above....
^^ And i was thinking if you were smokimg something. No worries though. :)
but just one question...In the same token Raising bar and using tactical nuke on a conventional attack will not make Pakistan a culprit????
We are ready to become the culprit once an elephant is charging at us with full zeal and zest and is just short of crushing us under his feet. Again the emphasis is on TACTICAL nukes, not Strategic one.

Anyhow as far as deterrence is concerned i am in agreement with you...however post deterrence it is a guess work....

Sure.

No one can grantee what would happen 'post-deterrence', so why dont you people just keep a lid on CS?:azn:
 
Just one point for the thing in bold.

There is/was one more thread running titled "Stupidity goes nuclear" in which a Pakistani viewpoint in Nasr is presented.

It made one important point --> Why would India not raise the bar of the war if its IBG's are hit by a TNW ?

Usage of TNW will depend on your perception of what India is capable of doing.

If you think India will keep quiet even if its troops get hit by TNW the Nasr is your perfect weapon.

If you think India will retaliate in a disproportionate manner if its troops get hit by a TNW, then using Nasr will lead to to a path of no return.

Your choice!

Try to concentrate on the following, it sure will help, especially the ifs and uncertainties:

Once CS has been launched and the IBGs nuked and if a few of them are wiped out and if at the same time the total damage to indian forces is still below the strategic level (which No One can be Sure of) then the only option left for india is to withdraw. Or should i say the only sane option left for india is to refrain from aggravating the situation, one, because if not then it will only lead to the MAD scenario, two, the CSD itself revolve around a 'none-nuke' concept i.e. it would culminate/stop before the point of no return (the adversary is beaten enough that it finally decides to go nuclear at strategic levels).

Now this all is based on assumptions, similar enough the way the CSD is based on assumptions i.e. india assumes that while executing CSD it would NOT cross the Pakistani nuclear threshold, which no one is sure of, similarly Pakistan would/should tac nuke the IBGs to an extent where the strategic damages to india does not cross it's nuclear threshold, which again no one is sure/clear of. So with this we can conclude that the Limited War and the CSD both are kinda nonviable as no side can guarantee that it would not cross the point of no return. With this, talking any further about these two strategies is simply beating about the bush!
 
Lets just stay prepared & hope in the meanwhile that the Indian high command stops underestimating our super strong will to defend our country .
 
...similarly Pakistan would/should tac nuke the IBGs to an extent where the strategic damages to india does not cross it's nuclear threshold, which again no one is sure/clear of.
Poppycock.

Point 2(IV) of India's Nuclear Doctrine, which for some inscrutable reason continues to remain as draft, states unambiguously, India's threshold:

The fundamental purpose of Indian nuclear weapons is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons by any State or entity against India and its forces. India will not be the first to initiate a nuclear strike, but will respond with punitive retaliation should deterrence fail.​

This means that India will consider use of any nuke against India or its forces, anywhere in the world, as failure of deterrence. In other words, mere use of nuke, in whichever form, and not degree of 'strategic damages' will be considered as breach of threshold and will invoke India's nuke retaliation.
 
Once CS has been launched and the IBGs nuked and if a few of them are wiped out and if at the same time the total damage to indian forces is still below the strategic level (which No One can be Sure of) then the only option left for india is to withdraw. Or should i say the only sane option left for india is to refrain from aggravating the situation, one, because if not then it will only lead to the MAD scenario, two, the CSD itself revolve around a 'none-nuke' concept i.e. it would culminate/stop before the point of no return (the adversary is beaten enough that it finally decides to go nuclear at strategic levels).

Now this all is based on assumptions, similar enough the way the CSD is based on assumptions i.e. india assumes that while executing CSD it would NOT cross the Pakistani nuclear threshold, which no one is sure of, similarly Pakistan would/should tac nuke the IBGs to an extent where the strategic damages to india does not cross it's nuclear threshold, which again no one is sure/clear of. So with this we can conclude that the Limited War and the CSD both are kinda nonviable as no side can guarantee that it would not cross the point of no return. With this, talking any further about these two strategies is simply beating about the bush!
Original Post By Xeric

Xeric,

Hope you read my Post 232.


That will indicate why I am surprised that you find it strange that the Indian Army felt sad for the dead of our adversary.

That will also indicate that we in the Indian Army do not fight shy in recognising valour of even our adversaries.

We are a professional Army that takes war in a professional manner and not something that means we should be consumed by hate and become beasts, leaving our God given human sensibilities in the Cantonments to dry and wither.

That is why, if I may state, I am surprised to find anyone who finds it surprising to mourn over the death of others, even if they are our adversaries!1

That said, now to the post of yours.

If some IBGs are nuked, I fail to see why the IA has to withdraw.

If they are to withdraw, then why go in, in the first place?

Therefore, once the Cold Start commences, there is no question of withdrawing because even in a conventional war there is no withdrawal, even if some reverse occur on the flanks.

The issue of 'only sane option left for India is to refrain from aggravating the situation,' does not arise.

War, itself, is an insane action.

And one does not go to war, because one has got out from the wrong side of the bed.

War is the last resort. It is undertaken after much deliberation and weighing up the options and much discussion with the international community.

And once embarked, it has to reach some conclusion; albeit it will be stopped at a certain point of time by the international powerbrokers, as has been the case in every war in the subcontinent.

It will ofcourse be controlled so as to not reach the scenario of MAD, but then who can predict?

The manner in which the international community is petrified about the MAD scenario in the subcontinent, there is a good possibility that the war will be brought to a close by then before the MAD level is reached.

But if come comes because someone in panic has pressed the button, little the military can do anything about that, except carry on with the aim and with greater vigour because the damage has been done and it is then a question of life and death.

That is why I had raised the issues of CNP, troops to task, overall strength in numbers of equipment and personnel and so on.

Having said that, you may again call me a pacifist, but then I sincerely hope such a scenario does not come to pass!
 
Therefore, once the Cold Start commences, there is no question of withdrawing because even in a conventional war there is no withdrawal, even if some reverse occur on the flanks.

It will ofcourse be controlled so as to not reach the scenario of MAD, but then who can predict?


So this means that the Cold Start is indeed flawed as it is self-defeating in a sense that it can not guarantee ITSELF what it is primarily based on, that's to say, 'not cross the adversaries nuclear threshold'?, Right?

We tac nuke you> you respond in kind but at a strategical level> MAD prevails

Guud, end of discussion.

Either you dont want to discuss the effects of a tac nuke or you deliberately mix up the thin line that exists between a tac nuke attack and a strategic one in order to ruin the discussion.

The manner in which the international community is petrified about the MAD scenario in the subcontinent, there is a good possibility that the war will be brought to a close by then before the MAD level is reached.

We tac nuke you (i hope you dont mix this up with a strategic countervalue + counterforce attack)>as now india is to respond in a manner that would lead to MAD, the international community steps in>the CS goes for a very big six.

Understood?
 
Xeric does pak have the capacity do second strike if india is the first to do a strategic strike.Assembling a nuke itself takes time.
 
Nuke this and nuke that.

All discussions go down the drain when you guys start picturing in the unthinkable.

For the discussion to remain logical, it has to be kept conventional. If its about nukes, I nuke you and you nuke me and its ALL OVER.

India has no intentions of dismembering Pakistan or for that matter any other state.

Nothing will happen if there is no 26/11 and like attacks. If it does, India will not hesitate to take military action. Now I am interested in discussing Pakistan's conventional response, but if you guys start threatening TNW's from the very beginning then there is nothing really to talk.

You ppl need to understand your country's doctrines in more detail.

Nukes (incl TNW's) are a last resort, they have to figure when there is no other option.
 
Back
Top Bottom