Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.

[wolfschanzze]

30 April: Elections take place in 9 states across 89 constituencies in the country. The states are Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal. Two union territories where elections will take place are Dadra and Nagar Havelli and Daman and Diu.

7 May: Polls take place in seven states and will cover 64 constituencies. States on the list are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.

12 May: This is the last date for polls where elections will take place across 41 constituencies in three states. States on the list are Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal..

Now 200 left how many NDA likely to get ?

100 minimum

Eventually all seats of AP will come under NDA ....

YSR and TDP as jagan said earlier that he will support any party who form govt.

There are some idiots here in Telangana who think they can win, But this election will make them lose their deposits,Congress slogan of"We were ones who gave you telangana "Slogan is neutered by Modi rally where he said,Telangana by people who sacrificed for it! So congress cannot take credit here! Watch as Congress will have same fate as Gujarat.

 

[Jason bourne]

अहवाल
महाराष्ट्रात संभाव्य विजयी उमेद्वार

1-दक्षिण मुम्बई-मिलिंद देवरा-काँग्रेस
2-दक्षिण मध्य मुम्बई- राहूल शेवाळे- शिवसेना
3-ऊत्तर-ईशान्य मुम्बई-किरीट सोमय्या-भाजप
4-ऊत्तर पूर्व मुम्बई-गजानन कीर्तिकर शिवसेना
5-उत्तर-मध्य मुम्बई-प्रिया दत्त काँग्रेस
6-उत्तर मुम्बई-गोपाळ शेट्टी -भाजप
7-ठाणे-राजन विचारे -शिवसेना
8-कल्याण- पाटील मनसे
9-पालघर-चिन्तामण वनगा-भाजप
10-भिवंडी-कपिल पाटिल -भाजप
11-नाशिक-छगन भुजबळ-राष्ट्रवादी
12-दिन्डोरी-हरिश्चंद्र चव्हाण-भाजप
13-पुणे-आनिल शिरोळे -भाजप
14-मावऴ-लक्ष्मण जगताप -शेकाप
15-शिरूर-शिवाजी आढळराव-शिवसेना
16-अ नगर-दिलीप गान्धी-भाजप
17-शिर्डी-भाऊसाहेब वाकचौरे-काँग्रेस
18-जऴगाव-ए टी पाटील-भाजप
19-रावेर-रक्शा खडसे-भाजप
20-धुऴे-अमरसिंग पंडित -कांग्रेस
21-नंदुरबार-हिना गावित - भाजप
22-बुलढाणा-प्रताप जाधव-शिवसेना
23-अकोला-संजय धोत्रे-भाजप
24-यवतमाऴ-भावना गवळि-शिवसेना
25-वर्धा-सागर मेघे-काँग्रेस
26-परभणी-संजय जाधव-शिवसेना
27-अमरावती-आनंद आडसूऴ-शिवसेना
28-भंडारा-प्रफ्फुल पटेल-राष्ट्रवादी
29-रामटेक-कृपाल तुमाने-शिवसेना
30-नागपूर-नितीन गडकरी-भाजप
31-गडचिरोली-अशोक नेते-भाजप
32-चंद्रपुर-हंसराज अहिर-भाजप
33-हिन्गोली-सुभाष वानखेडे-शिवसेना
34-नान्देड-अशोक चव्हाण-काँग्रेस
35-लातुर-दत्तू बनसोडे-काँग्रेस
36-औरंगाबाद-चंद्रकान्त खैरे-शिवसेना
37-बीड-गोपिनाथ मुन्डे-भाजप
38-जालना-रावसाहेब दानवे-भाजप
39-उस्मानाबाद-रवि गायकवाड - शिवसेना
40-सोलापूर-सुशिल शिन्दे-काँग्रेस
41-सान्गली-संजयकाका पाटील-भाजप
42-सातारा-उदयनराजे भोसले-राष्ट्रवादी
43-हातकण्नगले-राजू शेट्टी-स्वाभिमान
44-माढा-विजयसिन्ग मोहिते पाटील-राष्ट्रवादी
45-रायगड-अनंत गीते-शिवसेना
46-बारामती-सुप्रिया सुळे-राष्ट्रवादी
47-रत्नागिरी-विनायक राऊत-शिवसेना
48-कोल्हापूर-प्रा संजय मान्डलिक-शिवसेना

काँग्रेस-08
राष्ट्रवादी-05
भाजप-17
शिवसेना-15
स्वाभिमानी-01
मनसे-01
शेकाप-01

 

[Marshmallow]

We will elect him as your PM.

lol nah...we have our own charming man IK!

 

[HariPrasad]

Unconfirmed news manmohansings brother joins BJP

It is confirmed now. I show that on TV.

 

[Star Wars]

https://twitter.com/x/status/459911691195928576

 

[GreenFoe]

Tsunami hits Tamil Nadu on 24th April
Posted : 2:51 am, April 26, 2014 by admin

{This is a guest post by Prasanna Vishwanathan and S. Sivakumar}

Tamil Nadu is clearly turning out to be a psephologist’s nightmare. Slicing and dicing through the data gathered from ground reports points to the possibility of a tectonic shift in the political landscape of the state. Seasoned pollsters are still left deciphering an unprecedented electoral phenomenon that points to the collapse of conventional bipolarity, a defining feature of the state’s electoral politics. Emergence of a NDA alliance as a powerful third force could well be the story of TN Lok Sabha election.

Since 1990′s, Tamil Nadu has witnessed the emergence of caste based parties but the two main Dravidian parties –DMK and ADMK – have grappled with this phenomenon and successfully contained it, either by cooption through alliances or promoting a smattering of second line leadership from the middle caste ranks. ADMK has even fundamentally rewired itself as a party of Thevars while still drawing the subaltern votes based on the MGR’s welfarist legacy and inexhaustible goodwill enjoyed by him. However in the last couple of years the state has experienced massive resurgence of casteism due to a combination of;

• Belligerent politics centered around Dalit mobilization,
• Escalation of caste tension due to perceived misuse of provisions of SC and ST Prevention of Atrocities Act,
• Decline of middle caste hegemony in rural power equation,
• Agrarian distress due to rapidly declining labour pool as a consequence of urban migration and lack of new infrastructure investments,
• Resentment over perceived upward mobility of Dalits,
• Localized caste conflagrations over increased prevalence of intercaste marriages and
• Ruination of households due to rampant alcoholism (encouraged by TASMAC funded “cradle to grave” dole-schemes model)

This has forced caste based parties to adopt a new political approach. Interestingly, the most vociferous opposition to reckless welfarism indulged by the two main Dravidian parties, has come from caste based parties like Vanniyar dominated PMK and the Kongu parties that cater to the influential Kongu Vellalar Community in Western TN.

Deftly adding an additional layer of credible governance based messaging, Narendra Modi and his think-tank recalibrated a social engineering strategy by bringing together these parties under NDA fold. Charismatic cine actor Vijayakanth joining the alliance added much needed star power to the NDA while the indefatigable Vaiko also campaigned hard. BJP may be rewarded for taking a risky electoral gambit, much against the wisdom dispensed by South Chennai based BJP leaning, ADMK voting advisors who used to have the ears of party’s national leadership.

The Key Players


ADMK – Unlike 2004, when her electoral decimation was foretold, courtesy a grand coalition orchestrated by Karunanidhi and aided by a dramatic decline in her popularity, Jayalalithaa had everything going for her in her bid to harvest a rich haul of seats in this election. With a divided opposition, an emasculated DMK further depleted by an internecine fraternal fight and national parties struggling to finalize state level alliances, it should have been a cakewalk for her. But her legendary hubris, a completely unexpected resurgence of DMK and huge resonance of Modi’s developmental politics with Tamil electorate has effectively put paid to her plans. Worsening power situation in TN added to her woes (Jaya has shown no signs of creative problem solving approach). Western TN, which has been a hub of SME led entrepreneurship, has been the worst hit and this could reflect in the final outcome.


It’s highly likely that ADMK could struggle to get even half of modest target of 40 she set for her party men to achieve. An indifferent regime that lacks any creative ideas, a perception of an invisible CM mostly vacationing in cool environs of Kodanadu, lackadaisical candidate selection and cavalier manner in which she booted out usually reliable leftist parties have led to ADMK massively losing its momentum. Left parties provide cadre strength besides a good base among agriculture workers in Delta region and pockets of influence in industrialized urban centres.

DMK – Not many critics gave DMK a chance after the electoral tsunami that destroyed it in 2011 assembly polls. However DMK got its act together just in time. A spirited campaign by Stalin and some smart candidate selection has helped the party to come back in the race strongly. Not allying with the deeply unpopular Congress party was a tough call for DMK, while this move helped DMK regain some of its lost ground in public perception but the fact is that even a massively declining Congress could have delivered a few thousand votes in close fights and made that crucial difference in the end analysis. DMK seems to have got its alliance arithmetic wrong.

NDA – Possibly driven by a near complete consolidation of Vanniyars, Nadars, Kongu Vellalars and originally non-Tamil upper OBC’s, NDA appears to be in a position to translate vote-share into seats. PMK especially could be reviving electorally, thanks to social consolidation, since it fielded high profile and well regarded candidates. It will not be too much of a surprise if MDMK doubles or triples its current representation in Lok Sabha, while BJP is locked in a bitter fight to wrest 2 seats. Despite high voltage electioneering by Vijaykanth and his wife Premalatha , (both of whom received tumultuous response,) DMDK is poorly placed to pick up seats due to fielding of featherweight candidates. Captain, as Vijaykanth is fondly referred to, also lost out due to irrational seat selection. What has really made a big difference to BJP here as everywhere else in India is that the party has been literally transformed from being perceived as a more Brahminical entity into an OBC party due to the elevation of Modi to the top.

The TN picture of 24th April



North Tamilnadu (10 Seats )


Out of 10 seats, outcomes in 3 seats appear to be nearly a foregone conclusion. ADMK is set to win in Tiruvallur and Cuddalore while DMK should take Kallakurichi. Kanchipuram and Arakkonam looks to be heading ADMK way based on a favourable caste configuration and ground reports on voting pattern. MDMK is surprisingly is mounting a spirited challenge in Kanchipuram and could even finish as the runner-up.Vellore is very hard to predict because Muslims and Mudaliyars may switch allegiance here – because of the candidates (NDA fielded a moneyed Edupreneur) & vote differently compared to other constituencies in Northern Tamilnadu.

Tiruvannamalai appears to be going with DMK, as the party is getting a lion’s share of Mudaliyar votes compared to ADMK, while Vanniyar vote appears to be more evenly split between ADMK and DMK giving DMK the edge. Arani may still elect a NDA candidate because of heavy Vanniyar vote polarization, while Vilupuram result is difficult to predict because it is not clear whether the Vanniyar votes there will go to DMDK candidate or not. Chidambaram is another constituency difficult to predict because the SC votes may not follow the North TN pattern. Dalit Panthers chief Thirumavalan might still win based on his stature and back of the aggressive campaign he mounted.

Kongu Belt (9) Seats

PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss is set to win the Dharmapuri seat. Krishnagiri appears to be a 2 horse race with GK Mani possibly pushed to a third place finish. ADMK appears to be emerging as the winner here. Salem and Nammakkal is heading towards ADMK. Saffron surge in Kongunadu is real but reports of massive distribution of money in last 2 hours of polling by ruling party means we could look at razor thin margins. Erode, Tiruppur, Coimbatore and Pollachi all indicate potential NDA wins.Conflicting reports are emerging on Nilgris voting as it is unclear who will get the NDA votes.

Delta Region (6 seats)


ADMK will retain Tiruchi. Karur appears to have swung lately in favour of ADMK though DMDK candidate is gaining decent traction. In this region SC votes & Muslim votes are heavily going to DMK, also DMK is not far behind ADMK on bagging Devar votes. Brahmins, Nayakkar votes and Mudaliyar/Vellalar votes are going with NDA while Congress still retains clout among the Bhargava Kula votes which gives an indication that Thanjavur will go with DMK. Perambalur is difficult to predict because Congress will split Pariventhar’s votes – and it appears DMK has an edge. Mayiladuthurai is likely to back ADMK and dynasty stooge Mani Shankar Aiyar is fighting a valiant battle to save his deposit and all indications are that EC could be richer by the deposit amount. Nagapattinam voting is difficult to predict due to lack of adequate ground reports from that constituency.

South Tamil Nadu (10 seats)


Massive OBC vote consolidation behind NDA is the story of this region! Even Dalits (SC voters) are not averse going to NDA. DMK is facing a potential rout in this region because ADMK is winning highest share after NDA in all the caste categories. Additionally ADMK is attracting some Muslim votes too. NDA could well emerge winner in Virudhunagar, Tenkasi, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari. Congress’s best hopes are in Kanyakumari and it could poll significantly well in Sivagangai making it a seat difficult to predict.

Chennai Region


Reports indicate that DMK should gain in Chennai Central and Chennai North but late evening rearguard action by ADMK could make it a tight race. Chennai South is a tight triangular race with an edge to ADMK

Projected Vote and Seat Share





Epilogue: Our Sample Data of more than 1500 spread across 8 parliamentary seats had roughly 36% voters from the age group of under 35 and an astonishing 45% of them have voted for NDA cutting across caste lines! This could be the X factor that might potentially change the entire projection on May 16th. Narendra Modi is riding a wave this season and wave elections are beyond any predictive mathematical models which can only project based on limited presumptive data.

 

[Star Wars]

https://twitter.com/x/status/459914710666596353

 

[Chronos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/459911691195928576

Can you verify?

I mean, this indicates a demo-graphical shift, but I am interested in more sources.

 

[GreenFoe]

Can you verify?

I mean, this indicates a demo-graphical shift, but I am interested in more sources.

Indian Political Corner / General Elections 2014 | All Updates & Discussions. | Page 1333

 

[Star Wars]

Can you verify?

I mean, this indicates a demo-graphical shift, but I am interested in more sources.

post number 19986

 

[KS]

I have a few ppl in mind that I'm gonna troll the hell out if results come favorably on May 16

 

[nair]

I have a few ppl in mind that I'm gonna troll the hell out if results come favorably on May 16

and what is the result you are expecting..... ( so that i can guess those ppl in your mind )

 

[NKVD]

अहवाल
महाराष्ट्रात संभाव्य विजयी उमेद्वार

1-दक्षिण मुम्बई-मिलिंद देवरा-काँग्रेस
2-दक्षिण मध्य मुम्बई- राहूल शेवाळे- शिवसेना
3-ऊत्तर-ईशान्य मुम्बई-किरीट सोमय्या-भाजप
4-ऊत्तर पूर्व मुम्बई-गजानन कीर्तिकर शिवसेना
5-उत्तर-मध्य मुम्बई-प्रिया दत्त काँग्रेस
6-उत्तर मुम्बई-गोपाळ शेट्टी -भाजप
7-ठाणे-राजन विचारे -शिवसेना
8-कल्याण- पाटील मनसे
9-पालघर-चिन्तामण वनगा-भाजप
10-भिवंडी-कपिल पाटिल -भाजप
11-नाशिक-छगन भुजबळ-राष्ट्रवादी
12-दिन्डोरी-हरिश्चंद्र चव्हाण-भाजप
13-पुणे-आनिल शिरोळे -भाजप
14-मावऴ-लक्ष्मण जगताप -शेकाप
15-शिरूर-शिवाजी आढळराव-शिवसेना
16-अ नगर-दिलीप गान्धी-भाजप
17-शिर्डी-भाऊसाहेब वाकचौरे-काँग्रेस
18-जऴगाव-ए टी पाटील-भाजप
19-रावेर-रक्शा खडसे-भाजप
20-धुऴे-अमरसिंग पंडित -कांग्रेस
21-नंदुरबार-हिना गावित - भाजप
22-बुलढाणा-प्रताप जाधव-शिवसेना
23-अकोला-संजय धोत्रे-भाजप
24-यवतमाऴ-भावना गवळि-शिवसेना
25-वर्धा-सागर मेघे-काँग्रेस
26-परभणी-संजय जाधव-शिवसेना
27-अमरावती-आनंद आडसूऴ-शिवसेना
28-भंडारा-प्रफ्फुल पटेल-राष्ट्रवादी
29-रामटेक-कृपाल तुमाने-शिवसेना
30-नागपूर-नितीन गडकरी-भाजप
31-गडचिरोली-अशोक नेते-भाजप
32-चंद्रपुर-हंसराज अहिर-भाजप
33-हिन्गोली-सुभाष वानखेडे-शिवसेना
34-नान्देड-अशोक चव्हाण-काँग्रेस
35-लातुर-दत्तू बनसोडे-काँग्रेस
36-औरंगाबाद-चंद्रकान्त खैरे-शिवसेना
37-बीड-गोपिनाथ मुन्डे-भाजप
38-जालना-रावसाहेब दानवे-भाजप
39-उस्मानाबाद-रवि गायकवाड - शिवसेना
40-सोलापूर-सुशिल शिन्दे-काँग्रेस
41-सान्गली-संजयकाका पाटील-भाजप
42-सातारा-उदयनराजे भोसले-राष्ट्रवादी
43-हातकण्नगले-राजू शेट्टी-स्वाभिमान
44-माढा-विजयसिन्ग मोहिते पाटील-राष्ट्रवादी
45-रायगड-अनंत गीते-शिवसेना
46-बारामती-सुप्रिया सुळे-राष्ट्रवादी
47-रत्नागिरी-विनायक राऊत-शिवसेना
48-कोल्हापूर-प्रा संजय मान्डलिक-शिवसेना

काँग्रेस-08
राष्ट्रवादी-05
भाजप-17
शिवसेना-15
स्वाभिमानी-01
मनसे-01
शेकाप-01

You still believe it after almost 50 lacs voters dropout. mostly cadre voters of the Nda alliance There is huge conspiracy theories

 

[Star Wars]

You still believe it after almost 50 lacs voters dropout. mostly cadre voters of the Nda alliance There is huge conspiracy theories

Voter turn out is pretty big this time around , enough to easily compensate the 5 million voter fraud

 

[NKVD]

Voter turn out is pretty big this time around , enough to easily compensate the 5 million voter fraud

Hope so but still 50 lacs is not less may be it might getted few more seats to the Nda tally