Hindustani78
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These opinion polls are not correct .Good Evening India on a historic day of polling
Posted : 3:27 pm, May 7, 2014 by admin
Can May 7th really create history? Although it still sounds unbelievable that Gandhi Scion, Rahul, may end up losing the family pocket borough of Amethi, hard data suggests the impossible. In fact, the contest seems to be so mundane, it is almost like any other seat wherein ordinary mortals are contesting. Rahul is tied up in a 4 cornered battle where BSP seems to be at number 3 instead of AAP owing to its more than good performance among Dalit voters.
Making a constituency specific projection always has the attendant risks as compared to making overall projections for a state as errors cancel each other out in larger geographies. Yet, we are bravely going ahead with our seat specific projection based on a sample-size of 609 spread across 3 assembly segments of Amethi district. Whatever happens on 16th May, one thing is absolutely clear, Amethi is now a tough fight and the memory of a 3.7 lakh margin just 5 years ago now feels like a distant dream.
How has BJP’s Smriti Irani made such a leap of faith in such a short time? One of the theories is that Amethi was weary of Rahul Gandhi’s track record which was exploited by the AAP to begin with but the campaign fizzled out after a few weeks and BJP then moved into the vacuum to take full advantage of a prevailing anti-incumbent mood in the Gandhi constituency. Possibly the last straw was the Modi rally on Monday which was attended by well over a lakh people while most of Rahul and Priyanka’s public engagements here in Amethi were small affairs with self-help groups running into a crowd of a few 100s. This Modi rally possibly gave the impossible belief to ordinary BJP workers and also voters about a historic verdict for change and development.
The signs were there since the weekend before the polls when our pre-poll surveys started hinting at large-scale undecided voters on the eve of the elections and our ground staff started to report a strange nervousness among the local Congress workers. Another sign of nervousness was betrayed by Priyanka Gandhi who started to react to all kinds of comments by Narendra Modi sensing a certain level of disenchantment among the voting public.
Could Smriti Irani actually trump Rahul? The possibility is now clearly demonstrated by our data from the ground, although it must once again be stressed that this is just the raw data without extrapolating adequate social swing weightages. This also doesn’t take into account any externally mitigating circumstances like booth capturing etc. This raw data is indicative of a Rahul defeat in a similar fashion as Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit lost the December 2013 polls (which was first projected by us on the day of polling).
What could be the ramifications of such a historic verdict on Indian politics? For one, Congress party would never be the same again. Both Rahul as well as Priyanka would have lost all their mystique and charisma in just one election which would make the dynasty that much more untenable to survive this kind of a defeat. Indian democracy would have matured to a whole new level wherein performance would then become the sole criteria of voter’s judgement rather than any emotional appeal. One defeat could mean many positives for Indian democracy and one man must be given full credit for engineering the impossible in Gandhi-Nehru land – Amit Shah.
Uttar Pradesh
On the whole, UP today voted for a BJP sweep. All the talk of the break in the upper-caste vote bank of Brahmins and Thakurs, the rise of the BSP as a force in eastern UP etc. proved to be false alarms as vote consolidation behind BJP was total while the opposition vote was scattered. The only real challenge against BJP is coming from the Samajwadis with their MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination, but they are so far behind that they may hardly cause a dent in the BJP’s armour. As of today BJP is heading towards a 55+ seat tally in UP and may even increase that in the next phase.
Himachal Pradesh
Details from this hill state are still sketchy, but early numbers suggest that BJP is ahead in two seats and Congress is ahead in 1 seat while another seat is seeing a tough battle. We shall analyse the numbers more closely over the next two days to come up with a clearer projection.
Bihar is the other state we were tracking but cannot take the risk of divulging the numbers at this point of time as overall percentages are seemingly deceptive in Bihar and we need to make a deeper study, but there are some interesting pointers in terms of Muslim voters who seem to have made another turn this time. In Seemandhra, we did not directly track the polls and will be getting full numbers from third party source which will be analysed over the next 48 hours
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